Transcript Pelatihan II Menghitung EIRR

Pelatihan II
Menghitung EIRR
TPSDP Project
Implementation
Outcome Analysis
Basic Assumption
Tangible Economic
Benefit
Measurement
Investment Cost
Group I
EIRR Calculation
Increment Change/Benefit
Makasar
26-9-2001
WG
1
Basic Assumption





Factor Observed
Average Number of
annual enrolled student
Average length of Study
(year)
Waiting time to get first
job (month)
First job Salary (Rp 000)
Annual new student
enrolled capacity
(person)
WG
Base
100
Mid Final
110
120
6
5
4
9
5
3
800
100
1000
110
1200
120
2
Investment Cost
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








Total 4 years Investment Cost
Assume Exchange Rate (Rp)
Total Investment in Rupiah =
Distribution of Investment :
Year 1
= 30%
Year 2
= 35%
Year 3
= 20%
Year 4
= 15%
Operation Cost
Incremental Maintenance Cost
WG
: $ 1.300.000
:
9.000
11.700.000.000
=
=
=
=
:
:
3,510,000
4,095,000
2,340,000
1,755,000
constant
0
3
Increment Benefit/Change (1)



Reduce Student Length of Study :
Saving on Study Cost per student-month =
– Tuition Fee
=
Rp 400.000
– Living Cost
=
Rp 400.000
– Transport Cost
=
Rp 80.000
– Other Study Supporting Cost = Rp 120.000
Duration (Baseline/ Midterm/ Final) = 0 / 1 / 2 year
Average No. of Student
= 100 / 110 / 120
Cost Saving Year 3 & 4 = Rp 1.000.000 x 12 x 100
Cost Saving Year 5 … = Rp 1.000.000 x 24 x 100
WG
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Increment Benefit/Change (2)

Reduce waiting time to get first job, and
 More first job salary :
(Baseline/ Midterm/ Final)
Avg. waiting time get 1st job =
9 / 5 / 3 month
Avg. First Job Salary
= Rp 800 / 1.000 / 1.200
 Benefit :
– Early Earning applay to Year 3 & 4 = 1.200.000.000
Rp (1.000.000 - 800.000) x (9-5) x 100
– Early Earning applay to Year 5 …..= 2.400.000.000
Rp (1.200.000 - 800.000) x (9-3) x 100
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Increment Benefit/Change (3)

Increase New Student Capacity :
(Baseline/ Midterm/ Final)
No. of Student Enrooled
= 100 / 110 / 120
Tuition Fee (each student)
= Rp 400.000/month

Earning Revenue to Institution (Benefit) =
– Year 3 & 4
= 48.000.000
Rp 400.000 x (110 - 100) x 12 month
– Year 5 …..
= 96.000.000
Rp 400.000 x (120 - 100) x 12 month
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6
Assumption of EIRR Calculation

Project Duration
=
 Project Life Time
=
 Total Economic cycle =
WG
4 year
20 year
24 year
7
Calculation Sheet
[2+3+4]
0
0
1,328,000
1,328,000
2,656,000
2,656,000
2,656,000
[2]
0
WG
Month
800
1000
1200
Rp 000
[3]
100
110
120
Person
400
Kapasitas
Penerimaa
n Mhs
Reduce
Study
Time
[1]
3,510,000
4,095,000
2,340,000
1,755,000
0
0
0
9
5
3
Gajian
Pertama
Benefit
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
.
.
.
24
Year
1000
Investment
cost
Year
6
5
4
Waiting
time to get
first job
No. Enrolled Student Base Line
100 Mid
Assumption
End of Project
Unit
Rp 000
Unit Price (per month)
[4]
0
0
1,200,000
1,200,000
2,400,000
2,400,000
2,400,000
0
0
80,000
80,000
160,000
160,000
160,000
0
0
48,000
48,000
96,000
96,000
96,000
2,656,000 2,400,000
160,000
96,000
8
NPV Benefit of the Project
50,000,000
40,000,000
30,000,000
20,000,000
10,000,000
0
WG
24.0%
20.0%
16.0%
12.0%
8.0%
4.0%
0.0%
-10,000,000
9
EIRR Number (20 year Project life time)
Interest
Rate
[1]
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
22.0%
24.0%
NPV Cost
NPV
benefit
IRR
[2]
11,700,000
11,203,546
10,741,491
10,310,690
9,908,347
9,531,972
9,179,338
8,848,451
8,537,524
8,244,947
7,969,271
7,709,185
7,463,505
[3]
55,776,000
42,600,330
33,170,700
26,297,344
21,197,702
17,349,105
14,397,155
12,097,950
10,281,165
8,826,146
7,646,221
6,678,281
5,875,764
[4]=[3]-[2]
44,076,000
31,396,784
22,429,209
15,986,654
11,289,355
7,817,134
5,217,818
3,249,498
1,743,641
581,198
-323,050
-1,030,904
-1,587,741
WG
EIRR = 19.22 %
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EIRR Number (15 year Project life time)
Interest
Rate
[1]
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
22.0%
24.0%
NPV Cost
NPV benefit
IRR
[2]
11,700,000
11,203,546
10,741,491
10,310,690
9,908,347
9,531,972
9,179,338
8,848,451
8,537,524
8,244,947
7,969,271
7,709,185
7,463,505
[3]
31,872,000
26,492,587
22,205,202
18,759,328
15,967,295
13,687,372
11,811,668
10,257,423
8,960,680
7,871,655
6,951,327
6,168,899
5,499,906
[4]=[3]-[2]
20,172,000
15,289,042
11,463,712
8,448,638
6,058,948
4,155,401
2,632,331
1,408,972
423,156
-373,292
-1,017,944
-1,540,287
-1,963,599
WG
EIRR = 16.5 %
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Benefit NPV
(20 & 15 year Project life time comparison)
Interest
Rate
[1]
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
22.0%
24.0%
NPV Cost
[2]
11,700,000
11,203,546
10,741,491
10,310,690
9,908,347
9,531,972
9,179,338
8,848,451
8,537,524
8,244,947
7,969,271
7,709,185
7,463,505
WG
Interest
NPV
Rate
benefit
NPVIRR
Cost
NPV benefit
IRR
[1][3]
0.0%
55,776,000
2.0%
42,600,330
4.0%
33,170,700
6.0%
26,297,344
8.0%
21,197,702
10.0%
17,349,105
12.0%
14,397,155
14.0%
12,097,950
16.0%
10,281,165
18.0%
8,826,146
20.0%
7,646,221
22.0%
6,678,281
24.0%
5,875,764
[2]
[4]=[3]-[2]
11,700,000
44,076,000
11,203,546
31,396,784
10,741,491
22,429,209
10,310,690
15,986,654
9,908,347
11,289,355
9,531,972
7,817,134
9,179,338
5,217,818
8,848,451
3,249,498
8,537,524
1,743,641
8,244,947
581,198
7,969,271
-323,050
7,709,185
-1,030,904
7,463,505
-1,587,741
[3]
31,872,000
26,492,587
22,205,202
18,759,328
15,967,295
13,687,372
11,811,668
10,257,423
8,960,680
7,871,655
6,951,327
6,168,899
5,499,906
[4]=[3]-[2]
20,172,000
15,289,042
11,463,712
8,448,638
6,058,948
4,155,401
2,632,331
1,408,972
423,156
-373,292
-1,017,944
-1,540,287
-1,963,599
12
Yang masih belum diperhatikan

Other investment (civil works) Sources
Expenses
(akan menadikan cost >>)

Student Dropout rate
(jika << akan menjadikan benefit >>)

Others New Gerenrated Income
(Ourput dari research yang “dijual”, Jasa
pelayanan dari pengadaan alat baru, dls.)
WG
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