Transcript Title

PRC MILITARY MODERNIZATION
Dave Finkelstein — Vice President, Center for Naval Analyses
& Director, CNA China Studies
POINT 1
THE OPERATIONAL CAPABILITIES THE
CHINESE ARMED FORCES ARE DISPLAYING
TODAY ARE THE FRUITS OF FUNDAMENTAL
DECISIONS, PLANS, AND PROGRAMS PUT
INTO
PLACE
18
YEARS
AGO.
1993: THE WATERSHED YEAR
“MILITARY STRATEGIC GUIDELINES FOR THE NEW PERIOD”
• PROGRAMMATIC
BLUEPRINT FOR
LONG-TERM
MODERNIZATION OF
PLA
• CAPABILITIES-BASED
&
• CONTINGENCYBASED
FORMER CCP SECRETARY
GENERAL JIANG ZEMIN
CAPABILITIES-BASED ASSESSMENT
• GALVANIZING IMPACT OF DESERT STORM
• ENDS PLA DEBATES ABOUT TECHNOLOGY & REFORM
• LESSONS OF KOSOVO, AFGHANISTAN, IRAQ,
CHECHNYA, CYBER ATTACKS ON ESTONIA, GEORGIA
• MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS IN 2002 & 2004
BUILD A PLA TO FIGHT THIS KIND OF WAR
“LOCAL WARS UNDER MODERN INFORMATIZED
CONDITIONS”
• LIMITED POLITICAL OBJECTIVES & GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE
• SHORT IN DURATION BUT DECISIVE IN OUTCOME
• HIGH-INTENSITY OPERATIONS TEMPO
• LOGISTICS-INTENSIVE
• C4ISR & NEAR-TOTAL BATTLE SPACE AWARENESS
• OPERATIONS IN ALL BATTLE SPACE DIMENSIONS
• NON-LINEAR OPERATIONS & VULNERABLE REAR AREAS
• PRE-EMINANCE OF JOINT SERVICE OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGNS
CONTINGENCY-BASED ASSESSEMENT
MSD
LITTORAL /MARITIME CONCERNS “MAIN STRATEGIC DIRECTION”
“MAIN STRATEGIC DIRECTION ” & “IMPORTANT STRATEGIC DIRECTIONS”
PREPARE FOR “LOCAL WAR UNDER
INFORMATIZED CONDITIONS”
POINT 2 – EVEN WITHOUT TAIWAN….
…THE CAPABILITIESBASED ASSESSMENT
WOULD STILL IMPEL THE
PLA TO HIGH-TECH
CAPABILITIES, & OTHER
CONTINGENCIES WOULD
SERVE AS DRIVERS
WHY?
• MOST PRESSING CONTIGENCIES ARE MARITIME
AND AEROSPACE IN NATURE
– IF PLA CAN BUILD A MILITARY FOR THE TAIWAN
CONTINGENCY, IT CAN ALSO DEAL WITH OTHERS
• “BIG POWER” STATUS
– A MILITARY BEFITTING AN EMERGING POWER
– “STICK” AS WELL AS “CARROT”
• EXPANDING NATIONAL INTERESTS
– MARITIME TRADING NATION WITH GLOBAL ECONOMIC
INTERESTS
POINT 3
WHAT THE LEADERS OF THE PLA ARE
TRYING TO ACHIEVE IN MILITARY MODERNI-
ZATION IS NOTHING SHORT OF TRANSFORMATIVE RELATIVE TO THE PLA’S PAST.
PARADIGM SHIFTS FOR PLA
• STRATEGICALLY SEEKING
DEFENSIVE DEPTH EAST OFF
THE LITORRAL
• ORGANIZATIONALLY GIVING
INCREASING EMPHASIS TO
NAVY, AIR FORCE, &
TECHNICAL BRANCHES
• OPERATIONALLY AND
DOCTRINALLY TRAINING FOR
JOINT, HIGH OPS TEMPO
CAMPAIGNS
• CONCEPTUALLY LEARNING TO
UTILIZE HIGH-TECH ASSETS IN
DYNAMIC OPERATIONAL
ENVIRONMENT
SU-27 AIRCRAFT PURCHASED
FROM RUSSIA
“THREE PILLARS OF REFORM”
1.
HARDWARE &
TECHNOLOGIES
2.
SYSTEMIC &
INSTITUTIONAL
REFORMS
3.
OPERATIONALLEVEL DOCTRINE
SYSTEMIC & INSTITUTIONAL REFORMS
• COMMISSIONING
• PROFESSIONAL MILITARY
EDUCATION
• PERSONNEL
MANAGEMENT
• NCO CORPS
• RECRUITMENT
• DOWNSIZING
• UNIT RESTRUCTURING
• NEW C2
RELATIONSHIPS
• EQUIPMENT R & D
SYSTEM
• LOGISTICS
• FINANCIAL OVERSIGHT
DOCTRINE FOR A NEW TYPE OF CAMPAIGN
FROM LONG CAMPAIGNS OF ATTRITION BASED
ON CONCENTRATION OF FORCES (MASS)
AGAINST ENEMY’S WEAKEST SECTOR &
ASSETS…
….TO …. SHORT “CAMPAIGNS OF PARALYSIS” TO
LEVEL THE TECHNOLOGICAL PLAYING FIELD BY
CONCENTRATING PLA’S BEST CAPABILITIES
AGAINST ENEMY’S MOST IMPORTANT ASSETS.
PARADIGM SHIFT IN OPERATIONAL DOCTRINE
FROM
TO
COMBINED ARMS
JOINT OPERATIONS
CONCENTRATION OF FORCES
(MASS)
CONCENTRATION OF
CAPABILITIES (WPNS, UNITS)
ENEMY’S WEAK POINTS
ENEMY’S STRENGTHS
EMPHASIS ON DEFENSE
PRIMACY OF OFFENSE
GROUND FORCE-CENTRIC
NAVAL AND AEROSPACE
ABSORBING BLOWS
OPERATIONAL PRE-EMPTION
CONVENTIONAL BATTLE
SPACES
NEW BATTLE SPACES (SPACE,
CYBER SPACE, EM SPECTRUM)
POINT 4
THE PLA IS NOT YET BUILDING A
FORCE FOR SUSTAINED GLOBAL
FORCE PROJECTION.
HOWEVER….
IT IS BUILDING A MILITARY FOR REGIONAL
CONVENTIONAL FORCE PROJECTION & DEFENSE IN
DEPTH IN THE MARITIME-AEROSPACE DOMAIN.
2012 — CHINA COMMISSIONS FIRST AIRCRAFT CARRIER
POINT 5
THAT SAID, THE PLA IS DEVELOPING SELECTED
POCKETS OF CAPACITY THAT HAVE GLOBAL REACH.
STRATEGIC REACH
• NUCLEAR FORCES
– LIQUID FUELED TO SOLID FUELED
– SILO-BASED TO ROAD MOBILE, and SUBMARINES
– QUESTIONS ABOUT NUCLEAR DOCTRINE PERSIST
• CYBER WARFARE
– PRC AS EMERGING WORLD-CLASS CENTER OF
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
• OPERATIONS IN OUTER SPACE
– INCREASING FOOT PRINT IN OUTER SPACE
– DEMONSTRATED INTEREST IN COUNTER SPACE
POINT 6
THE PLA IS AT THE INCIPIENT STAGES
OF BECOMING AN EXPEDITIONARY
FORCE
24 DEC 2004: “NEW HISTORIC MISSIONS”
“THE PLA IS
TRANSFORMING
FROM A MILITARY
TRADITIONALLY
FOCUSED ON THE
DEFENSE OF
SOVEREIGNTY TO A
MILITARY PREPARED
TO DEFEND CHINESE
INTERESTS.”
HU JINTAO BECOMES
CMC CHAIRMAN IN 2004
INCIPIENT EXPEDITIONARY OPERATIONS
• ANTI-PIRACY OFF HORN OF AFRICA
• HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE & DISASTER RELIEF
OPERATIONS
– NEW HOSPITAL SHIP
• UN PEACEKEEPING & OBSERVER MISSIONS
• COMBINED EXERCISES WITH FOREIGN NATIONS
– TURKEY OCTOBER 2010
• “QUASI-NEO” IN LIBYA 2011
• FIRST AIRCRAFT CARRIER CV 16 LIAONING
POINT 7 – THE PLA REMAINS A “PARTY ARMY”
POINT 8
WHILE THE PLA IS MAKING IMPRESSIVE
PROGRESS, IT IS NOT ENTIRELY CERTAIN
OR INEVITABLE THAT THE PLA WILL BE
ABLE TO ACHIEVE ALL OF ITS
OBJECTIVES.
INHIBITORS
• PLA A VERY LARGE ORGANIZATION
• EDUCATION LEVELS
• CONSCRIPTS VERSUS PROFESSIONALS
• COMPETITION FOR “BEST & BRIGHTEST”
• “ONLY SON SOLDIERS”
• BUREAUCRATIC INERTIA
• NO RECENT COMBAT EXPERIENCE
THE “CHINA FACTOR”
A GLOBAL ACTOR OF CONSEQUENCE FOR MANY
U.S. STRATEGIC INTERESTS
Chairman
Hu Jintao
Vice Chairman
Members
Liang Guanglie
MND
Chen Bingde GSD
Xi Jinping
Li Jinai GPD
Guo Boxiong Xu Ciahou
Liao Xilong GLD Chang Wanquan
GAD
Jing Zhiyuan
2nd Arty
Wu Shengli
Navy
Xu Qiliang
PLAAF
Chairman
?
Hu Jintao
Vice Chairman
X
X
Members
Xi Jinping
Guo Boxiong Xu Ciahou
X X X X X
Liang Guanglie
MND
Chen Bingde GSD
Li Jinai GPD
Liao Xilong GLD Chang Wanquan
GAD
Jing Zhiyuan
2nd Arty
Wu Shengli
Navy
Xu Qiliang
PLAAF
GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS
NORTH KOREA
IRAN
AFGHANISTAN & PAKISTAN
CLIMATE CHANGE & GLOBAL WARMING
GLOBAL COMMONS
OUTER SPACE
CYBER SPACE
MARITIME
SOUTH CHINA SEA
USNS IMPECCABLE
INCIDENT, MARCH 2009
DOMESTIC CHALLENGES —
“ALL UNDER HEAVEN” IS NOT WELL
“RISING CHINA”
“CHALLENGED CHINA”
DAUNTING DOMESTIC ISSUES
•
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•
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•
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RICH-POOR GAP WIDENING
UNEVEN REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT
PEASANTS ARE “LOSERS”
BREAK DOWN IN SOCIAL SECURITY
MEDICAL SYSTEM INADEQUATE
GENDER IMBALANCE
“GRAYING” POPULATION
ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION
RAMPANT CORRUPTION BY OFFICIALS
IRRATIONAL TAX BASE
HEALTH CRISES (SARS, AVIAN VIRUS, AIDS/HIV)
POOR POWER GRID; NET OIL IMPORTER
NET GRAIN IMPORTER
INCREASINGLY “EMPOWERED” MIDDLE CLASS & ELITE
IRRATIONAL BANKING & FINANCIAL SYSTEM
POPULAR UNREST A SERIOUS CONCERN
• IN 2006 THE CHINESE MINISTRY OF PUBLIC
SECURITY REPORTED 87,000 CASES OF PUBLIC
ORDER DISTURBANCES.
• IN 2005 THERE WERE 84,000 INCIDENTS OF
UNREST IN CHINA INVOLVING AS MANY AS 3.5
MILLION PEOPLE
• MOSTLY DISPLACED PEASANTS AND URBAN
POOR LOSING JOBS OR PENSIONS IN STATE
OWNED ENTERPRISES
XINJIANG — JULY 2009
CCP IS WORRIED
• FEARFUL OF “THE MASSES”
• WORRIED ABOUT THE FUTURE OF THE PARTY
• KNOWS IT MUST CHANGE STYLE OF
GOVERNANCE
– BUT HOW?
– TO WHAT?
– HOW FAST?
• LESSONS OF CPSU, EASTERN EUROPE, PRI, LDP,
DLP, KMT WEIGH HEAVY
– BEING STUDIED TODAY AT CENTRAL PARTY SCHOOL
FOR THE PRC — SO WHAT?
• BEIJING’S MOST PRESSING AGENDA IS THE DOMESTIC
AGENDA (!)
• FUTURE OF THE PARTY HINGES UPON ITS ABILITY TO—
–
–
–
–
CONTINUE TO “DELIVER” ECONOMIC GROWTH
SPREAD THE WEALTH TO CURRENT “LOSERS”
ENHANCE GOVERNANCE (CORRUPTION, LEGAL REFORM, ETC)
MAINTAIN INTERNAL STABILITY
• REQUIRES THAT CHINA REMAIN “ENGAGED” IN THE GLOBAL
ECONOMIC & POLITICAL SYSTEM AND HAVE “A SEAT AT THE
TABLE”
• IN THIS REGARD, THE TAIWAN ISSUE CUTS BOTH WAYS —
– ASSUAGING THE NATIONALISM OF “THE MASSES” WHILE
UNDERSTANDING THE RISKS TO ECONOMY RESULTING FROM
WAR
FOR THE U.S. — SO WHAT?
• U.S. HAS VITAL & MAJOR INTERESTS AT STAKE IN BOTH
“RISING CHINA” & “CHALLENGED CHINA”
• STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE CHINA IS
HEADED
• CANNOT DEAL WITH CHINA LIKE THE USSR DURING THE
COLD WAR
• THAT SAID, WE WILL NEED TO EMPLOY ALL ELEMENTS OF
NATIONAL POWER IN DEALING WITH CHINA
QUESTIONS?
2008: PRC BECAME U.S.’S LARGEST CREDITOR
• OVERTAKES JAPAN TO
BECOME LARGEST
HOLDER OF U.S. DEBT
• PRC IS U.S.’S 2ND LARGEST
TRADE PARTNER
• LARGEST SOURCE OF
IMPORTS TO U.S.
• 3RD LARGEST EXPORT
MARKET FOR U.S.
• U.S. IS LARGEST PRC
TRADE PARTNER
• U.S. IS LARGEST EXPORT
MARKET OF PRC
4. “PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN MAINTAINING
WORLD PEACE AND PROMOTING COMMON
DEVELOPMENT”
• Text
FIRST TIME THE PLA HAS BEEN
GIVEN A “MISSION” SEEMINGLY
NOT CONFINED TO CHINA PROPER
As China’s Global Footprint Expands…
• …China’s global security interests will
also expand. The PLA will likely be
called upon more and more for regional
security advice.
III. Institutional Sources of PLA
Influence
THAT SAID…
THE PLA IS DEVELOPING SELECTED POCKETS
OF CAPACITY THAT HAVE GLOBAL REACH.