Transcript Slide 1

The 2007 National Defense Budget and the QDR:
Old Wine, Bigger Bottle
Winslow T. Wheeler
Director, Straus Military Reform Project
Center for Defense Information
February 2006
Quick Look Review:
Department of Defense Spending
(Constant 2006 Dollars)
DoD Budget ($BN)
Cold War Budget Avg. ($366.1 billion)
2007 Bush Plan (less "Long War")
Korean War
$600
Reagan Increase
Vietnam War
$500
Desert Storm
$400
9/11
$300
End of
Cold War
$200
Start
Clinton/Bush
Increase
$100
1947
1952
1957
1962
1967
1972
1977
Year
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007
2
Quick Look Review:
Army Divisions
Relative to Army Budget Over 25 Years
40
$160
Army Divisions (Active & Reserve)
Army Budget ($BN)
35
$140
30
27
25
24
24
24
24
25
28
28
28
28
$120
28
26
24
24
$100
20
20
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
$80
15
$60
10
$40
5
$20
0
$0
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
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94
19
95
19
96
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97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
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Quick Look Review:
Naval Combat Ships
Relative to Navy Budget Over 25 Years
800
$180
Total Combat Ships
Navy Budget ($BN)
700
$140
600
500
477
491
513 514 524
569 566 567
556
546
542
526
$120
466
434
400
$100
387
373 365
357
333
300
$160
317 316 316 315
$80
296 292 290
$60
200
$20
0
$0
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
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93
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94
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95
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96
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97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
100
$40
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Quick Look Review:
Air Force Tactical Air Wings
Relative to USAF Budget Over 25 Years
50
$180
USAF Tactical Air Wings (Active & Reserve)
Air Force Budget ($BN)
45
40
37
37
38
37
37
37
37
37
37
37
$160
$140
36
35
35
$120
30
29
27
$100
25
22
20
21
20
20
20
20
20
$80
19
19
19
19
19
$60
15
$40
10
5
$20
0
$0
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
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Quick Look Review:
National Defense Budget plus related Spending
(“Total” Spending [Disc. + Mand.])
Category
2006
2007
DOD
412.3
441.2
War, etc.
125.8
50.0
DOD with War
538.1
489.3 (so far)
DOE/Defense
18.1
17.0
“054”
5.6
4.8
National Defense
561.8
513.0 (so far)
Homeland Security
38.4
41.6
DVA
70.4
77.8
International
27.7
33.7
Grand Total
698.3
666.1 (so far)
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Mis-measuring the Defense Budget:
Comparing to “Non-Defense Discretionary”
463
500
408
400
300
200
100
0
$Billions
FY 2007 National Defense Request
Total 2007 Non-Defense Discretionary
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Really Mis-measuring Defense Spending:
% of GDP (3.9%)
13030
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
463
2000
0
$Billions
National Defense (2007)
GDP
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Still Mis-measuring Defense Spending:
Comparing to Total Federal Spending
(17%, But Still Apples to Oranges)
2757.9
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
463
500
0
$billions
Total National Defense (2007)
Total Federal (Disc. + Mand.)
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Another Way to Look at It
Comparison to Others
(2005 Data from CIA World Fact Book – except for U.S. and Russia)
Defense Budgets ($Billions)
600
505.7
500
400
300
200
3.5
Russia
7.6
Taiwan
3.8
18
Saudi Arabia
5.2
23
Poland
45.8
Pakistan
4.3
9.1
North Korea
19
Israel
0.6
35.1
Iran
45
India
67.5
Germany
100
42.8
0
US
UK
Japan
France
Cuba
China
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Defense News’ Monday Headline
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QDR: Where’s the Beef?
•
10 USC118: QDR “shall ….identify the
budget plan that would be required to
provide sufficient resources to execute
successfully the full range of missions called
for in that national defense strategy….”
•
No budget plan in 2005 QDR
•
Due date for QDR shifted from September to
December: intended to facilitate budget
implementation.
•
Rumsfeld on 2/6: “The bulk of [the QDR] will
be taken into account as the budget build
starts now to be presented next February.”
•
Starts with and talks up “The Long War.”
•
Looks like a total of $17.3 billion in baseline
2007 request – out of $439.3 billion (4%)
•
139 page DAPA Report on acquisition
“reform.”
•
“considering” DAPA Report (QDR Report, p.
71)
•
Financial Management/”Underfunding”
•
Nothing on FM; almost nothing on
‘underfunding’ (CBO estimates plan/budget
mismatch at $50 billion to $102 billion, per
year.)
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Combat Arms: The Right Direction?
•
4,000 new SOF in 2007, plus USMC
command, more UAVs, etc.
•
Enough for our best forces for
insurgency?
•
Modularity to increase combat
brigades from 48 to 70
•
Decrease in full maneuver battalions
(See IDA Studies at www.cdi.org/smrp)
•
Combat forces now to train not just for
combat but also peacekeeping: two full
time jobs.
•
Good Idea, but Congress is raiding the
dollars. (-$282 million in 2006)
•
Bill Payer for Hardware; Not Reversed
•
December Directive on Stability Ops
•
Military to Civilian conversions
•
Army National Guard and Army
Reserve and other service reductions
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“Machines Don’t Fight Wars; People Do.”
(If the Services Can Recruit back to, or above, 2006 Authorization Levels,
Will the Hardware Programs Give the Money Back?)
Service
FY2006 DOD
Appropriations’
Manpower
Authorizations
2007 OMB/DOD
Request
Delta
Army
482.4
482.4
--
Navy
352.7
340.7
-12.0
USMC
175.0
175.0
--
USAF
357.4
334.2
-23.2
Army Reserve
205
200.0
-5.0
Navy Reserve
73.1
71.3
-1.8
MC Reserve
39.6
39.6
--
AF Reserve
74.0
74.9
+0.9
Army National Guard
350.0
332.9
-17.1
Air National Guard
106.8
107.0
+0.2
Totals
-58.0
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Rumsfeld’s WMDs
(Washington Monument Drills)
• Army Reserve and National
Guard Cuts
• Dead Before Departure – more
funding to come.
• 2.2% Pay Raise for All
• Dead on Arrival; more
expenses to come.
• End C-17 Production
• First Ever Boxer-Hastert
Coalition; more $ in outyears.
• Tricare Cost Control
• In Intensive Care Unit.
Prognosis: Grave
• Kennedy Retirement
• Will there be an Act II?
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And Buried in the Back
• See p. 216 of OMB’s “Analytical Perspectives” for 2007
•
Line Item Veto (Completely invisible to press. Is it serious?)
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