Transcript Document

DROUGHT MONITORING IN SOUTHERN
AFRICA DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
International Workshop on Climate and Land Degradation
Lamgando Conference Hall, Impala Hotel,
ARUSHA, United Republic of Tanzania, 11-15 December 2006
Bradwell J. Garanganga
SADC DROUGHT MONITORING CENTRE
e.mail: [email protected]
Website: http://www.dmc.co.zw
SADC Drought Monitoring
Centre
Responsible for monitoring and predicting of climatic extremes such as floods and droughts in a
timely manner with respect to their intensity, geographical extent, duration and impact upon
various socio-economic sectors and giving early warning for the formulation of appropriate
strategies to combat their adverse effects thus contributing to minimizing their negative impacts.
Presentation Format
1. Introduction
2. History of the SADC DMC
3. Role of the SADC DMC
4. Tools / Products
•
Climate monitoring
•
Climate Prediction
5. Attachments/ Capacity building
6. Climate Outlook Fora, brief
7. Challenges & Opportunities
8. Planned activities
9. Summary
Location of SADC member countries
5.00
0.00
DRC
Seychelles
-5.00
Tanzania
-10.00
Angola
Malawi
Zambia
-15.00
Mozambique
Zimbabwe
-20.00
Namibia
Mauritius
Botswana
-25.00
South Africa
Swaziland
Lesotho
-30.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
50.00
55.00
INTRODUCTION
 The Drought Monitoring Centre (DMC) is an
institution of Southern African Development
Community (SADC) comprising 14 member states
with well over 220 million inhabitants.
The SADC countries experience recurrent climatic
extremes such as droughts, floods, tropical cyclones,
which often result in negative impacts such as land
degradation
The region is also susceptible to epidemiological
diseases such as malaria and cholera that are
influenced by climatic factors.
 Extreme climate variation impact negatively socioeconomic development of the Member States.
HISTORICAL BACKGROUND
 Established in 1989/90 together with now ICPAC by African
Gvts with WMO as Executing Agency. Together responsible for
22 countries of Eastern and Southern Africa
 Central objective to have regional approaches in mitigating
adverse climate impacts to socioeconomic developments.
 Initial funding from UNDP
 Next funding from the Belgian Government, with a condition
that SADC gradually takes over the funding of DMC Harare.
Since April 2002, core activities are funded by SADC.
However, programme activities are still being funded by
cooperating partners:WMO, USAID, NOAA and others.
ROLE OF THE SADC DMC
1) OBJECTIVE
To contribute to mitigation of adverse impacts of
extreme climate variations on sustainable
socioeconomic development.
 This is achieved through the monitoring of near real-time climatic
trends and generating medium-range (10-14 days) and long-range
climate outlook products on monthly and seasonal (3-6 months)
timescales.
 These products are disseminated in timely manner to the
communities of the sub-region principally through the NMHSs,
regional organizations, and also directly through email services to
various users who include media agencies. Our products are readily
available on our website: http:// www.dmc.co.zw, e.mail address is:
[email protected]
 The provision of early warning for the formulation of
appropriate strategies to combat the adverse effects of
climate extremes affords greater opportunity to
decision-makers for development of prudent plans for
mitigating the negative impacts on sustainable socioeconomic development.
 Since, establishment, the center has played an
important and central role in providing the sub-region
with weather and climate advisories and more
importantly, timely early warning on drought, floods
and other extreme climate events
PRODUCT DISSEMINATION
SADC
NMHSs
Data
processing
&
archiving
Techniques
Development
Environment
Monitoring
Angola
Botswana
Congo (DRC)
SADC
DMC
Global
Climate
Centres
Lesotho
Malawi
Mauritius
Mozambique
ECMWF
IRI
UKMO
NOAA
BMRC
Namibia
Product
Generation &
Dissemination
Attachments
Workshops
Seychelles
WMO
etc …
South Africa
Swaziland
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
2. OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES
 Developing and archiving of global, regional and national
quality controlled climate databanks
Providing of climate monitoring, prediction and application
services,
Conducting training and capacity building activities in the
generation and application of climate products
Organizing the climate and malaria outlook forums for the
SADC region, and
Enhancing the interactions with the user through regional users
workshops and application pilot projects.
CLIMATE INFORMATION
• Climate variability
– The basic driving mechanism of steady-state climate: solar
radiation and the rotation of the earth
– The circulation patterns of the atmosphere in southern Africa
– Important for application in socio-economic sectors: extremes in
climate states often lead to the dislocation of socio-economic
developments. Droughts/floods have wreaked havoc in the region
from time to time.
• Climate Change
– The impacts of industrialization on climate system
– Important for application in socio-economic sectors
EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION
• Southern African region socioeconomic
development is influenced by climate variability.
• The El Niño/southern Oscillation phenomenon has
impacts on the region
• Trends in global climate change have implications
in the region
Impacts of ENSO phases in SADC
•
•
•
•
Droughts /Floods
Unprecedented crop failures
Decimation of livestock
Virtual collapse of industries since both water
shortage and hydropower failures are frequently likely
• Incidences of epidemiological diseases
• Mass destruction of infrastructures: roads; bridges;
houses, etc
Widespread suffering with loss of livestock and crops
SADC DMC TOOLS
The SADC DMC uses several tools to realize its objective
and they are listed below:
SOI for selected years
A
5
4
3
SOI
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Month
SOI_1991/92
SOI_1997/98
SOI_1999/2000
SOI_2002/2003
30 Year Mean OND and JFM
rainfall
Composite El Nino SST mean (top); anomalies(bottom)
Composite La Nina SST mean (top); anomalies(bottom)
B
Pacific Basin – SST (IRI)
C
D
Selected Atmospheric Patterns
Zonal wind Indian / Atlantic (IRI)
PRODUCTS
Standardised mean Southern Africa rainfall
anomalies with SOI
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
Rainfall Anomalies
SOI Anomalies
1985
1990
1995
RAINFALL PERFORMANCE
HIGHLIGHTS
• Significant rainfall deficits across
the southern half of the SADC region
.
Countries mostly affected BY deficits
were Botswana, Zimbabwe, Namibia,
southern half of Mozambique and
South Africa .
October 2004 Dekadal cumulative rainfall
Trend: Most area had little rainfall.
Country with the highest rainfall over this period (>150mm): DRC
October circulation feature(s): ITCZ to the north, middle level high-pressure
dominating southern parts.
November 2004 Dekadal cumulative rainfall
Trend: First dekad was quite dry. Northern half had some decent rains.
Areas with the highest rainfall over this period(>150mm): Northern Malawi
Seychelles & Southern Tanzania.
Most of southern half experienced little rain.
November circulation feature(s): Depression over Mozambique Channel and
ITCZ active over the northern parts.
December 2004 Dekadal cumulative rainfall
Trend: Most areas had widespread rainfall, the s’western sector had little
rainfall. Countries with the highest rainfall over this period(>90mm): DRC,
Seychelles, Zambia, Zimbabwe & Malawi.
December circulation feature(s): Depressions over Mozambique Channel, ITCZ
over the North and central part and middle level high-pressure system over
the south/southwest.
OND
TOTALS
Overall, most of the SADC region experienced largely normal rains during the OND
2004. However, parts of the southern sections, the bulk of central South Africa, had well
below-normal rainfall, less than 65%.
Greater than 125 % was observed over Malawi, Northern Mozambique, northeastern
coast of Tanzania.
Cumulative rains during OND 2004 for
selected stations in the SADC
Rainfall was well
below normal from
October to December
for Bulawayo in
Zimbabwe, Maun in
Botswana, Queensland
in South Africa.
Parts of Malawi and north
Mozambique had rains
picking up sharply in Dec
2004
Rainfall was well below
normal from October to
December in DRC &
Tanzania also.
CLIMATE PREDICTION
• Prediction of future state of Atmosphere
– Understanding the physics of the atmosphere
– Using computer models (high power)
– Important for application in socio-economic sectors
• Basic approaches
– Analogue, Statistical and Dynamical
Prediction
What do we need to know to make a good prediction?
the current state (initial conditions)
how the current state will evolve
Uncertainty in How the Current State will
Evolve
El Niño
Boreal winter
Boreal spring
Normal
La Niña
Uncertainty in How the Current State will
Evolve
Sea surface temperatures in the global oceans (but primarily in the
tropics) can affect the overlying atmosphere by warming or cooling
the air and affecting the amount of atmospheric moisture. Since
these sea temperatures change fairly slowly, and can themselves be
predicted, an influence on the atmosphere can be anticipated up to a
few months in advance.
Communicating Uncertainty
Uncertainty is
indicated by the
probability that
rainfall will be within
a specified range.
Uncertainty is high
when the probability
is high and the range
is narrow.
HOMOGENOUS REGIONS FOR OND OVER
SOUTHERN AFRICA
Graph of Observed and Forecasted for the
region 1 DJF SEASON
20
70%
Value
10
0
-10
-20
1960
1970
1980 1990
YEAR
2000
2010
REG1
FORECAST
SADC SEASONAL FORECAST
OUTLOOK DJF 2006-2007
ANOVA
MODEL
DJF
MR (%)
R2 (%)
FRATIO
P
REGION 1
74.1
54.9
14.591
0.000
REGION 2
60.3
36.3
10.559
0.000
REGION 3
59.8
35.7
6.668
0.001
DJF 2005/06 Rainfall For
Malaria Outlook
REGIONS
I,VII & IX
HAS HIGH
%GE OF
EXCEEDING
75%NTILE
MAP1: Probabilities of Wet
DJF 2005/06 Rainfall Malaria
Outlook
REGIONS II-VI
& VIII HAVE
HIGH PROB
OF DRY
INCIDENCES
MAP2: Probabilities of Dry
OND 2005 OBSERVED RAINFALL vs
OUTLOOK
OND 2005 VERIFICATION
JFM 2006 OBSERVED RAINFALL vs
OUTLOOK
JFM 2006 OUTLOOK VERIFICATION
ATTACHMENT PROGRAMME
The DMC has over the years hosted many scientists from
mostly the subregion. It has also facilitated secondment of
scientists to other global centres. Typically the scientists are
hosted for a period of six months at a time at the DMC.
Training SADC National Meteorological and Hydrological
Services' (NMHSs) staff on attachment at the DMC through
guidance in conducting research in climate monitoring and
prediction techniques.
After undergoing the training, scientists in prediction and
producing climate bulletins, they return to their countries to
share their new skills with other colleagues.
3. CAPACITY BUILDING
In addition to training SADC (NMHSs) staff on attachment
DMC with assistance from other scientists, develop climate
monitoring and prediction techniques for developing Southern
Africa Region Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) products.
Providing training to SADC NMHSs staff through capacity 1-2
week building workshops and SARCOF.
Strengthening links with users from sectors such as health, food
security (early warning systems), water resources management,
media, tourism industry, etc.
The aim of the pre-SARCOF capacity building workshops is to
enhance the capacity of the NMHSs in generating climate outlook
products at national level.
User workshops (e.g. media and water-resources) have been
incorporated into the process so as to enhance the effective
dissemination and application of climate monitoring and prediction
information, and to create good working relations between the
climate scientists and the various weather-sensitive sectors.
Since August 1999, the SADC DMC has organized 9 preSARCOF capacity building workshops, including two media
water resources and livestock workshops.
In each workshop, inadequacies in the forecasting system are
identified from previous experiences and attempts are made to
address already recognised weaknesses.
4. CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUMS
The SADC DMC has organized nine Southern Africa Climate
Outlook forums (SARCOF),
To provide a consensus seasonal climate outlook form for the
SADC region.
 Create a platform for interaction between the users and the
climate scientists to enhance the application of meteorology to the
reduction of climate related risks to food security, water
resources and health for sustainable socio-economic development
in the SADC region
The SARCOF Process
CAPACITY BUILDING WORKSHOP
CONSENSUS MEETING
Aug - Sept
Sept
In Addition
User (e.g. Media, Health, Agric, Water and Disaster) Workshops
Verification of SARCOF
The SARCOF9 Consensus Climate Outlook for the
October to December 2005 had a hit rate of 48%
and Heidke Hit Skill Score of 22% . For January
to March 2006 season had a hit rate of 69% and
Heidke Hit Skill Score of 54%.
A good model evaluated over a period of more than
ten years has a Heidke Hit Skill Score of 20.0%
The SARCOF9 Consensus Climate Outlook
therefore was useful as its skill scores were
within the skill score ranges of a good model.
This will immensely benefit users of climate
services in the subregion, i.e. individuals and
institutions from both public and private sectors.
CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES

Inadequate infrastructure and appropriate
capacity (human and equipment),

Lack of coordination and communication
between meteorologists and various users
group,

Limited communication opportunities
between countries, and

Unavailability of advanced technologies.
Challenges and Opportunities
• Climate Monitoring and Prediction
–
–
–
–
Consultation with end users
Improved delivery systems
Training in the use of information
Incorporating user feedback
Challenges and Opportunities
Climate Monitoring and Prediction
Improved Seasonal Climate Forecasts
– Increased reliability
– Spatial scale
– Temporal scale
PLANNED ACTIVITIES
The DMC will continue to build on the successes it made in
climate analysis and prediction, and strive to improve areas of its
weakness.
It will empower regional experts involved in climate diagnosis
and prediction through on-the-job training, workshops and
secondment of these experts to advanced climate centres overseas.
This will result in, among other things:
• research focused on long-lead seasonal climate predictability in
order to systematically produce useful forecasts; and
•effective use of these experimental forecasts by scientists from
participating countries in order to meet their particular social and
economic needs.
SUMMARY
Climate extremes have profound impacts in SADC
DMC has contributed to the understanding of these extreme
variations in SADC through consistent climate monitoring.
DMC generates and disseminates important prediction products.
These products are important in providing early warning for
mitigation of adverse impacts of extremes in weather and climate.
There are still challenges: inadequate resources.
DMC have contributed to building capacity in SADC for climate
prediction and applications through Climate outlook Forums.
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!!