Transcript Global Water Challenges and the Potential Contribution of

Pick the low-hanging fruit first
-- nothing succeeds like
success!
Keep your eye on the ball -Don’t let the best become
the enemy of the good!
Reform is dialectic, not mechanical:
OED “progress take place more through
‘unbalanced’ development than
comprehensive planning approaches….”
Reforms must provide returns for
the politicians who are willing to
make the changes….
“Good water
management
is good
politics”
+
river
+ dyke
=
=
Political
order
Thus Three Gorges is as much about
political symbolism as it is about flood
protection and hydropower…
The overriding lesson:
Be realistic, patient and persistent
A typical rich country
1950 1975 2000
2000
2025 2000
A typical
poor
country
2025
A typical
middle-income
country
The principles are known….
But there are no quick fixes…
Good ideas are often
presented as silver
bullets..
.. They then
“fail”, and the
danger is that
the baby is
then thrown
out with the
bathwater…
The challenge for the Bank on
water resource management
• Principles (Dublin/1993 WRMPP) matter
and must be used as a filter to judge
actions
• Progress is sequential, slow and
determined by broader political economy
Therefore:
“PRINCIPLED PRAGMATISM”
as the form of Bank engagement
The Story Line
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Water management and development are vital
for growth and poverty reduction
The method for developing this Strategy
Better water management is essential
Most developing countries also need
investment in priority water infrastructure
Tailoring the strategy to country
circumstances
Summary and Next Steps
Many developing countries have
high climatic variability …
And likely to become still more variable with climate
change
And thus rising toll of droughts and floods..
With dramatic human and economic impacts..
Indian
Minister of
Finance “Every
budget is a
gamble on the
monsoon”
While OECD countries have
much of the major
infrastructure needed (and
sometimes too much!) the
situation is radically
different in most developing
countries…
Endowments of water infrastructure…..
US and Australia have ~5000 m3/cap;
China has 2,400;
India has 130 m3/cap
Ethiopia has 50 m3/cap
Similar comparisons in major
river basins in arid areas….
• Colorado, Murray/Darling…
– have 900 days of water storage capacity
• India and Pakistan…
– have about 30 days of water storage
capacity
Development of economically-feasible
hydropower potential in different regions
% of potential
developed
100
Europe
North America
80
60
South
America
China
Africa
40
20
Asia (excl
China)
0
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
Potential in million GWH/year
2.5
Major conclusions:
• For developing countries:
– Improved management of resources and infrastructure
are vital
– Appropriate stocks of infrastructure are equally
important at many levels……
And what about the
financing of this
infrastructure?
Bank’s borrowers are
increasingly having to
contemplate major interbasin and sometimes international transfer schemes
Red-Dead Pipeline
Purposes:
oTo restore the Dead Sea
oTo generation power
oTo desalinate water for cities
The
proposed
Red-Dead
pipeline…
Cost? ~$3 billion
EAST ASIA
South-North Transfer Options
Haihe
Basin
Yangtse
Basin
Cost? ~$40 billion
LATIN AMERICA
Cost? ~$3 billion
AFRICA
Lesotho Highlands Water
Project SouthernWater
Africa
Poor
TVTS
OVTS
LHWP
Water Rich
Cost? ~$4 billion
In many
developing
countries the
water crisis is a
financing crisis…
Where is the money going to
come from?
• And what is the role of the World
Bank ?
Private Investment in Infrastructure in Developing
Countries 1984 - 2002
140000.00
TOTAL
TELECOM
ENERGY
TRANSPORT
WATSAN
HYDRO
100000.00
80000.00
60000.00
40000.00
20000.00
Total World
Bank lending
20
02
20
00
19
98
19
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
19
88
19
86
0.00
19
84
Million $ a year
120000.00
Main messages:
•Amounts are very large relative to official aid
•Flows are volatile
•Concentrated in middle income countries
•Only about 5% to “high risk” hydro and 5% to water supply
The public sector will necessarily play the
major role in much financing of water
infrastructure…
Public
Private
Run of the river hydro
Thermal Power generation
Multipurpose dams
Solid Waste
Bulk water supply Gas
Sewerage/Sanitation
pipelines
Rural electrification
Passenger trains
Bus Transport
Metro
Rural water
Roads
Telecoms
Rail Freights
Rural roads
Urban water supply
The last decade has largely
been a “lost decade”
• The combined effect of:
– A naïve view that “the private sector will
take care of infrastructure” and
– Antagonism to infrastructure among
advocacy NGOs, and support for those
views by a number of developed country
owners of the Bank….
… in recent years there have been major questions among the
Bank’s owners about Bank financing of major infrastructure…..
With Sardar Sarovar on the Narmada the poster case….
The sharp decline in the World Bank’s
involvement in large dam construction in
the developing world
4
3.5
3
% of dams
with World
2
Bank
involvement
1
0.6
0
1970s
1990s
Irrigation lending has declined sharply
World Bank Commitments (3 year
moving average) in 2002 USD
2000
1500
1000
500
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
year
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
0
1978
Million (2002)
USD
2500
As has lending for water and sanitation…
2, 500
2, 000
1, 500
1, 000
500
0
FY93 FY94 FY95 FY96 FY97 FY98 FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02
IBRD/IDA & Grant Comm Amt
And most dramatically for hydropower
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
90-92
93-95
96-98
99-01
02-04
View of the Bank’s
borrowers?
• Pride in improved performance in
environmental and social quality of
water infrastructure in recent
decades
How performance has changed over time
100
Anticipating ecosystem impacts
Information disclosure
Participation by affected people
80
60
%
40
20
0
<1950
1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
What we heard from
borrowers….
• Strong commitment to continued
improvement
• See complex infrastructure as a
major area of World Bank
comparative advantage..
The World Bank’s recent “Global Poll of 1000 opinion-makers”
Message: Infrastructure is critical and the Bank is perceived as having a
comparative advantage in infrastructure…
Most Important Sustainable Development
Issue as judged by World Leaders
2004
And how has the World Bank
been seen to respond to
this?
Middle-income countries “with choices” find
the Bank’s business processes rigid and
unrealistic
Governor Tasso Jeressati of
Ceara, Brazil:
“When I build a 10 meter
high dam in the middle of
the semi-arid, the Bank
requires due diligence as
though I were building
Itaipu!”
A bigger
problem for
poor countries
“without
choices”
WIDESPREAD PERCEPTION IN
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES:
• The Bank has become unreliable and risk averse:
– “a risk multiplier rather than a risk mitigator”…
• “Borrowers with choices” (the middle income
countries) have largely disengaged from the Bank
on these issues because they don’t believe we are
realistic and practical
• This leaves those with least capacity to meet
standards that developed countries have never
met, that developing countries with capacity
cannot and will not meet
Feb 2003: New World Bank Water Strategy
Summary of main messages
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Water management and development are essential for growth
and poverty reduction – therefore critical for the Bank to be
engaged in “all quadrants”
What is needed in developing countries is management AND
development
The main management challenge is not vision but “principled
pragmatism”
On development – the Bank needs to assist countries develop
and maintain appropriate stocks of well-functioning
infrastructure
The Bank has a comparative advantage in dealing with these
complex issues, and there is strong demand for Bank
engagement
The Bank will follow become a predictable, transparent
partner which will re-engage with “high-risk/high-reward”
infrastructure
Reaction of different groups to the proposed
approach to Bank re-engagement with major water
infrastructure?
60%
40%
Private Sector
20%
Bank's borrowers
0%
St rongly
Agree
No opinion
Disagree
agree
St rongly
disagree
40%
30%
Global NGOs
20%
10%
0%
Strongly
agree
Agree
No opinion
Disagree
Strongly
disagree
Some forms of expression on these issues
are more imaginative than others….
• This became a rallying point for
developing countries who had “had
enough”…
Unprecedented leadership by developing countries on the Board in
support of re-engagement with major infrastructure…..
… We are firmly of the view that infrastructure
investment is central to the Bank’s mission of poverty
reduction….
….We would like senior management commitment to at
least two high risk – high benefit projects per region…
WSSD/Johannesburg Plan
of Implementation…
• Identification of ALL hydro as a renewable
source of energy, to be supported by
international community….
– “impossible because of NGO opposition” said
IPCC Chair in 2001
– Leadership by Brazil….
– Strong support from other developing
countries…
Now it is on to implementation ….
… and the proof of the
pudding (as always) will be
in the eating!
World Bank Lending for Water over Past Three Years
% of all Bank lending
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
FY02
Irrigation Serv
Urban WSS WR
Hydropow er Serv
FY03
Irrigation WR
Rural WSS Serv
Hydropow er WR
FY04
Urban WSS Serv
Rural WSS WR
WR St/Alone Components
The World
Bank/India
Country
Assistance
Strategy 20042008:
Lending for water
will increase
from $200
million a year to
$800 million a
year
The takeaway message on the World
Bank and water …
We’re back!
Story Line
1. The challenge of water in the
developing world
2. The evolving role of the World Bank
3. The potential role of a great
university in addressing global water
challenges
Why should a university like
UNC consider a role?
Because of:
(1) the importance of the issues
(2) the availability of resources upon
which it can build, and
(3) UNC’s comparative advantage in the
field of water.
An interesting observation…
…. It is a continuing
mystery to me that
Harvard students are
seized by the
problems of species
extinction, global
warming, aids,….
….But the ongoing,
continual problem of
the bill who live on
less than a $ a day
are not a matter for
their passionate
interest
Since Sept 11 there has been a marked rise in interest by
students from US universities…
Greater engagement in global
affairs is now a priority for
leadership at UNC (and most
other elite universities..)…
The Academic Plan lists six overriding
academic priorities to guide Carolina over
the next five years. One of these stated
priorities is to extend our global presence
in research and teaching. The Academic
Plan further articulates a vision to further
integrate interdisciplinary research,
education, and public service in several
areas, including global health.
Why should a university like
UNC consider a role?
Because of:
(1) the importance of the issues,
(2) the availability of resources upon
which it can build, and
(3) UNC’s comparative advantage in the
field of water.
Water studies require a
wide range of disciplines…
THE DISCIPLINES REQUIRED
Anthropology
History
Political science
Economics
Conflict Resolution
Geography
Finance
Public Policy
Hydrology
Limnology
Biology
Engineering
Epidemiology
Etc.
Etc.
THE RESOURCES AVAILABLE AT UNC
School of Public Health
Medical School
College of Arts and Sciences
Business School
Carolina Environmental Program
Carolina Population Center
Duke University
North Carolina State University
North Carolina Water Resources
Research Institute
Research Triangle Institute
Other Organizations in RTP
Why should a university like
UNC consider a role?
Because of:
(1) the importance of the issues,
(2) the availability of resources upon
which it can build, and
(3) UNC’s comparative advantage in the
field of water.
There is a burgeoning and
interest in international
issues at US universities
• Many programs in development
economics
• Many programs in international public
health
• But UNC can reasonably aspire to be
#1 in the area of global water
management…
UNC has an illustrious history and a large
reservoir of goodwill from students
throughout the water and development world
One of the global giants in water,
recognized for:
– Knowledge and commitment
– Integration of thinking and doing
– Putting and keeping UNC/SPH on the map
Dan
And those who have followed…
Mark –
microbiology,
health with
WHO
Don and Dale…
Water Economics…
CPC
Group on
health
effects
A particularly important
quality of Dan’s legacy….
• Water management is both an
intellectual and practical issue…
• Dan – and those who followed – defied
the aphorism:
– “researchers don’t practice, and
practioners don’t read”…
UNC is in a great
position to strengthen
its leadership position
in --“putting water on
the brain” – of the
next generation of
students and scholars…
And thus change the world, in ways great…
And small…..
Thank you!