Transcript econ.core.hu
The Factors on Trade of Chinese Cultural Goods
——An Empirical Analysis based on Panel Data QU Ru-xiao School of Economics and Business Administration of Beijing Normal University 2011.7.1
Main Point
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INTRODUCTION
LITERATURE REVIEW
DEFINITION
STATUS QUO
RESEARCH DESIGN
ANALYSIS OF EMPIRICAL RESULTS
CONCLUSION
1. INTRODUCTION--- background
• The international trade flows of cultural products grew fast in the last ten years, which has been the new source of the world economy, and the liberation of cultural trade has been an important issue in the future's multilateral trade negotiations. • The development of cultural trade and the expansion of export will raise the international influence of China, and bring us huge economic and social benefits. • Making clear the development of Chinese cultural trade and the factors determining its direction and scale are of great practical significance both for the way developing cultural trade and for the trend of international cultural trade.
2. LITERATURE REVIEW
• Lots of scholars in all fields tested the cultural factors' influence on international trade in different angles, such as the common language, the same religious beliefs, colonial affiliation, institution distance, cultural distance, and so on. Results are different.
The Chinese studies on cultural trade basically analyze the state of current cultural trade from the perspective of economics, while literatures about empirical analysis is relatively small. In this article, an empirical analysis will be done to figure out the factors of trade of Chinese cultural products by use of gravity model.
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3. DEFINITION
From: UNESCO Cultural goods
→
• Consumer goods spreading ideas, symbols and lifestyle, when providing information and entertainment to form group identify and influence cultural behavior.
• In 2005, UNESCO divided cultural goods, and told core cultural goods (books, recorded media, visual arts, etc.) apart from related cultural goods (blank CDs, TV, etc.) by its content.
The core cultural goods and related goods under classification of UNESCO core cultural goods Cultural heritage
（
SITC.3-8965~8966
） - Collections and collectors' pieces of zoological, botanical, mineralogical - Antiques of an age exceeding one hundred years
Books (SITC. 3-8921) Newspaper and periodical(SITC.3-8922) Other printed matter(SITC.3-8924~8928)
- Postcards, transfers etc.
- Printed matter, n.e.s.
Recorded media(SITC.3-8986~8987)
- Magnetic tapes, recorded.
- Gramophone records.
Visual arts
（
SITC.3-8961~8964
）
Audiovisual media
（
SITC.3 8826/883/89431
）
related cultural goods Equipment / Supporting material
（
SITC.3-761~762/882/898
） - Television receivers, etc - Radio-broadcast receiver - Photo.cinematograph.supple
- Musical instruments, etc.
Plans and drawings for architectural
（
SITC.3-89282
）
Trade advertising materials
（
SITC.3-89282/89286
）
4. STATUS QUO
THE FEATURES OF CHINESE CULTURE TRADE
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Centralized export market
Faster export growth
Small exports proportion
Serious structural deficit
4.1 Centralized export market
Figure 1 China's main trading partners of cultural goods export
Data Source: UN COMTRADE Database
4.2 Faster export growth
Figure 2 Trends of Chinese Culture exports 1992-2009
Data Source: UN COMTRADE Database
4.3 Small exports proportion
Table 2 The share of Chinese culture exports in total exports 2002-2008
year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 All merchandise exports （ USD ） 325,595,969,765 438,227,767,355 593,325,581,430 761,953,409,531 968,935,601,013 1,220,059,668,452 1,430,693,066,080 1,201,646,758,080 Cultural goods exports （ USD ） 3,187,393,974 3,589,862,074 3,955,526,952 5,073,635,775 6,466,676,584 7,183,535,120 10,161,718,832 6,784,861,672 The proportion of cultural goods （ % ） 0.98 0.82 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.59 0.71 0.56 Data Source: UN COMTRADE Database
4.4 Serious structural deficit
Table 3 the overview of trade of China's main cultural goods in 2008
Export (million USD ） Import （ million USD ） Balance （ million USD ） The proportion of exports in imports （ % ）
Books,newspapers,periodicals
1. books 2. newspapers 3. periodocals 3487.25 3130.59 138.53 218.13 24061.40 8155.24 2615.42 13290.74 -20574.15 -5024.65 -2476.89 -13072.61 14.49 38.39 5.30 1.64 101.32 4556.81 -4455.49 2.22
Audio and video products, electronic publishing
1. audio tapes （ AT ） 2. compact disc （ CD ） 3. digital video disk （ DVD-V ） 4. video compact disc （ VCD ） 5. electronic publishings
Copyrights
1. books 2. sound recordings 3. video recordings 0.19 23.17 70.83 6.31 0.82 Export (type/time) 2455 2440 8 3 0 95.22 5.34 0 4456.25 Import (type/time) 16969 15776 251 153 0.19 -72.05 65.49 6.31 -4455.43 balance -14514 -13336 -243 -150 —— 24.33 1326.40 —— 0.000184 —— 14.47 15.47 3.18 1.96 4. electronic publications 5. sofewares 6. television programs 7. others 1 3 0 0 117 362 2 308 -116 -359 -2 -308 0.0085 0.0083 —— —— Data Source: http://www.gapp.gov.cn/
5. RESEARCH DESIGN
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Variables selection Data sources
Construction of the regression equation
5.1 Variables selection
Chinese exports of cultural products over the years (Ex)
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Gross domestic product (GDP) GDP per capita Geographical distance Cultural distance Land area Terms of trade Internet user 5.1.3
Common language FTA
5.2 Data sources
Variables
export flows of cultural products GDP
Data Source
United Nations COMtrade Database GDP per capita geographic distance cultural distance land area terms of trade technology application levels common language common FTA World Development Indicators 2009 Overall national economy accounting database of United Nations Statistics Division Query system of latitude and longitude of world cities Calculated by professor Hofstede's cultural dimensions of different countries from his official web site according to Kogut & Singh's composite index formula Food and Agriculture Organization database updated to 2007, in units of 1,000 hectares (Ha) World Development Indicators 2009 International Telecommunication Union's World Telecommunication / Information and Communication Technology (TCI) Indicators Database If the two trading partners use the same language, the variable assigned to 1, on the contrary, compared with 0 If the trading partner belongs to APEC, the variable assigned to 1, on the contrary, compared with 0
5.3 Construction of the regression equation
5.3.1 Classical gravity model
• T ij =A·[(Y i ， Y j )/D ij ] • ln
T ij
=
a 0
+
a 1
ln
GDP i
+
a 2
ln
GDP j
+
a 3
ln
D ij
+
ε ij
5.3.2 Construction of the regression equation
• Ln （ Ex cjt ） =α+β 1 Ln(GDP ct ) +β 2 Ln(GDP jt ) +β 3 Ln(GDPPC ct ) +β 4 Ln(GDPPC jt ) +β 5 Ln(D cj ) +β 6 Ln(culD cj ) +β 7 Ln(AREA j ) +β 8 Ln(TERM jt ) +β 9 INT jt +β 10 CLAN cj +β 11 CFTA cj + μ cjt
6. ANALYSIS OF EMPIRICAL RESULTS
Items Mixed regression Variable Coefficient P - (Std. Err.) value Ln(GDP ct ) Ln(GDP jt ) 0.856(1.287) 0.507 0.482(0.098) 0.000 Ln(perCapital ct ) -1.680(1.022) 0.103 Ln(perCapital jt ) 3.759(0.571) 0.000 Ln(D cj ) Ln(culD cj ) -1.591(0.308) 0.000 3.052(0.698) 0.000 0.535(0.755) 0.000 Ln(AREA j ) Ln(TERM jt ) INT jt CLAN cj CFTA cj -2.771(1.273) 0.031 0.023(1.272) 0.112 15.06(1.954) 0.000 -1.749(0.347) 0.000 Year 0.100(0.197) 0.611 F- test Goodness of fit P-value Adjusted-R 2 0.0000 0.8439 B-P test Other tests H 0 homoscedastic P-value 0.0000 Robust standard deviation regression Coefficient (Std. Err.) P - value 0.856(1.148) 0.457 0.482(0.117) 0.000 -1.680(0.884) 0.059 3.759(0.576) 0.000 -1.591(0.265) 0.000 3.051(0.818) 0.000 0.535(0.746) 0.000 -2.771(1.074) 0.011 0.023(0.015) 0.132 15.06(2.237) 0.000 -1.749(0.287) 0.000 0.100(0.199) 0.616 P-value R 2 0.0000 0.8562 White test H 0 homoscedastic P-value 0.0726 Random effect regression of panel data Coefficient (Std. Err.) 1.336(0.874) 0.488(0.967) P - value 0.126 0.000 -1.608(1.010) 3.624(0.505) 0.111 0.000 -1.614(0.304) 2.906(0.635) 0.537(0.752) -2.494(1.148) 0.029(0.007) 14.691(1.811) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.030 0.000 0.000 -1.784(0.339) —— 0.000 —— P-value Overall-R 2 B-P test 0.0000 0.8560 H 0 P-value Random effects 0.6420
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CONCLUSION
In addition to traditional conclusions that trading partner's economic scale, purchasing power of residents, land area and the common language have positive effects on cultural products trade, while geographic distance and terms of trade impact culture trade flows negatively, China's cultural products trade also has Chinese characteristics : the cultural distance with trade partners has a positive impact on the country's exports of cultural goods, which may be due to the unique nature of cultural goods in China to be more attractive to importing countries with a large cultural gap between China; partners' levels of technology application have positive effects on trade flows of cultural goods in China, because the spread of culture are related to development of new media as its carrier; China's economic scale, purchasing power of residents, and whether to enjoy the trade preferences have little effect on exports of cultural goods in the regression model