Transcript The basic lines of scientific research into water resources

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The basic lines of scientific
research into
water resources
The basic lines of scientific research into
water resources
WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT UNDER LIFECONDITIONED TRANSFORMATION
AND GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGES ON THE MODEL “CLIMATE-RUNOFF”
DEVELOPMENT OF SCIENTIFIC BASE AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR WATER
RESOURCES MANAGEMENT DURING FORMATION OF CATASTROPHIC FLOODS ON
THE RIVERS
TERRITORIAL LONG-TERM FORECAST
OF MAXIMUM RIVER RUNOFF RESULTING FROM MELTING OF SNOW AND
PRECIPITATION
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WATER RESOURCE MANAGEMENT
IN UKRAINE UNDER
LIFECONDITIONED TRANSFORMATION
AND GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
ON THE BASIS OF
“CLIMATE – RUNOFF” MODEL
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PROJECT GOAL:
To present efficiency of
“climate – runoff” model
in evaluation of water management
transformation consequences
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Project Members:
Department of Land Hydrology, Odessa
State Environmental University, 15
Lvovskaya Street, Odessa 65016,
Ukraine
Head of the Department of Land
Hydrology – Eugen D. Gopchenko
Leader of the Project– professor
Nataliya S. Loboda ([email protected])
Phone: 326-746
e-mail: [email protected]
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“CLIMATE-RUNOFF” MODEL
Climatic factors
(precipitation, temperature)
Underlying surface
(swamps, lakes, cavern water, soil)
Annual natural runoff
Water management actions
(irrigation, drainage, swift
transference of water, creation of
artificial reservoirs)
Lifeconditioned runoff
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PRINCIPAL QUESTIONS
How do you estimate
natural water resources?
How do you take into account
climatic changes in runoff calculations?
How do you estimate runoff changes as a result
of simultaneous global warning
and water management transformation?
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Hydrological system under
anthropogenic influence
Hydrological system under anthropogenic
influence can be described by means of the
classical mechanics master equation of the
Liuville type as follows:
dY
—+ L(Λ,Y)= ε
dt
Y(t) = Y(t0)-S L(Λ,Y)dt +S ε dt




У (t0 )
Y(t )
ε
L
-
natural flow;
anthropogenic flow;
external effect caused global warming;
operator of life-conditioned influence
describing flow
changes under water-management transformations
(irrigation, additional evaporation from water surface of artificial water
reservoirs, regenerated flow).
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Annual Climatic Norms of Runoff
Calculated by Meteorological Data
 Zones of surplus
(Yk140 мм),
 sufficient
(30Yk <140 мм) and
insufficient
(Yk<30 мм) humidity
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Norm of Climatic Annual Runoff Characterizes
Water Resources under Natural State
Scheme of Irrigative System in the South of Ukraine
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Norm of Climatic Annual Runoff Characterizes
Water Resources under Natural State
Critical scales f (%) of water surface in artificial reservoirs in
the south – western Ukraine under initial climatic conditions
Norms of
climatic
runoff,
mm
Critical scales f (%) ,
under decreasing
water resources
10%
50%
70%*
30
0,7
4,0
6,5
20
0,5
3,0
5,0
10
0,3
2,0
3,7
•Destruction of Water System
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Influence of Global Warming on the
Natural Resources of Ukraine
Em; X;Y,мм
1200.00
800.00
400.00
0.00
0
1
2
3
Resources of humidity (X),
Resources of warmth and water resources (Y) in the central part of
Ukraine under climatice conditions within the latest century and in
accordance with the scenarios (1,2,3), (0) being the initial stage of
global warming
Maximum decrease of water resources comprises 25%, according to
the Script 1
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Response Functions for Long Time Average of Annual
Lifeconditioned Runoff of Catchments
Ky
1.90
V0=1.0
1.80
1.70
1.60
V0=0.9
1.50
1.40
V0=0.8
1.30
1.20
1.10
изменения, превышающие 10%
1.00
f,%
0.90
0
2
4
6
8
10
The figure shows response functions for long time average (norm) of annual
lifeconditioned runoff YL of catchments, situated on theY Crimea pensula’s plain.
L
Ordinates of these dependences are coefficients, k Y  Y characterizing changes to the
N
norms of runoff under conditions of additional inflow from agricultural areas, irrigated
by water of North Crimean Canal.
The figure illustrates increasing norms of lifeconditioned runoff with growing areas of
irrigation . If f  0 YL  YN
The anthropogenic effect depends on the level of optimal moistening V0 of soil.
At present time small rivers of the Crimean pensula’s plain are drainage canals.
The red line shows the level of essential changes of runoff norms equal to 10%.
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DEVELOPMENT OF SCIENTIFIC BASE
AND
RECOMMENDATIONS FOR WATER
RESOURCE MANAGEMENT
DURING FORMATION OF
CATASTROPHIC
FLOODS ON THE RIVERS
DANGEROUS HYDROLOGICAL
PHENOMENA
DANGEROUS HYDROLOGICAL
PHENOMENA
FLOOD
SPRING
FLOOD
SUMMER
AUTUMN
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WINTER
SPRING
OSENU TECHNIQUE FOR ACCOUNT OF THE MAXIMUM
RUNOFF OF THE RIVERS
Precipitation
Swamp
Slope influx
Forest
q`m
Time lag of the
flood
wave
Channel
runoff
qm
Channel and
flood plain
storage
Lakes,
Reservoirs
SCHEME OF STREAMFLOW GENERATION
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GENERAL STRUCTURE OF A DESIGN MODEL
qm  qm(t p / T0 ) Fr ,
(1)
MAXIMUM SPECIFIC DISCHARGE OF SLOPE INFLUX
qm  k p
n  1 Y1%
n T0
(2)
TRANSFORMATION FUNCTION OF FLOOD
a) for 0<tp/T0<1.0
b) for tp/T01.0
 tp 
m1  1
 
(t p / T0 )  1 
(n  1)(m1  n  1)  T0 
n
;
(3)
m

 T0  1 
n T0  m1  1
n1
  
(t p / T0 ) 

n  1 t p  m1
m1 (m1  n  1)  t p  


(4)
CHANNEL AND FLOOD PLAIN STORAGE
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

q

m

F  
 q ( t / T r  

 m
p 0  


(5)
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LOGO
TERRITORIAL LONG-TERM
FORECAST
OF MAXIMUM RIVER RUNOFF
RESULTING FROM MELTING OF
SNOW AND PRECIPITATION
INITIAL DATA BASE
On-line data
Basic data
Morphometric
features of water
catchment
Average perennial
hydrological
characteristics
Scheme of long-term forecast for maximum flood
km=f[(Sm+P1+P2)/(So+P1o+P2о)]
Water-storage of
snow cover
Precipitation
Depth of frost
zone
Air temperature
Soil moisture
Processing of on-line hydrometeorological data
І. Qualitative forecast (model of discriminant function)
DF=ao+a1x1+a2x2+…+amxm
Derivation of the
value for maximum
flood
ІІ. Quantitative forecast – derivation of module
coefficient km
Map for the forecast
module coefficients (km)
Estimation of
forecast
ІІІ. Determination of probability of the forecast value
in perennial period (Р%)
Forecast lead time
Map for the probability (Р%)
Change of forecast module coefficient for maximum
discharge of spring flood across the territory in 2003
весеннего половодья в 200
3 г.
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Change in probability of forecast module coefficients for values of
maximum discharge of spring flood across the territory in 2003
(in per cent)
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