Transcript Korean Problem and Northeast Asian Secuirty

Explaining Korean Problem
- Division and Engagement June 14, 2006
HCU Peace Studies
Sung Chull Kim
Hiroshima Peace Institute
[email protected]
Preliminary questions

Why was Korea divided? What is the impact of
division of Korea?

Why does South Korea try to engage with North
Korea?

What does the two Koreas mean to Northeast
Asia, particularly Japan?
(see table of content, p. 36)
The Korean peninsula
Flags of ROK and DPRK
Two Koreas in Northeast Asia: Facts
Country
Space
(1,000 km2)
Population
(Million)
Capital
GDP
(Million US
dollars)
GDP/capita
(US dollars)
Japan
378
130.0
Tokyo
4,326,400
34,010
China
9,597
1,300.0
Beijing
1,130,984
890
North Korea
121
22.6
Pyongyang
22,260*
1,000*
South Korea
99
47.4
Seoul
447,698
9,400
Division and its impact (sum)


“Division of Korea”
“Korean peninsula as the last remaining Cold War zone”
Division of Korea and Korean War
- division by international agreement (Germany, Korea, and Vietnam)
- experience of war (Korea and Vietnam)

Divergent development path and competition in the Cold War era
- North: socialist and autarchic economy, father-son monolithic power
- South: export-oriented market economy, dependence on US,
democratization

WMD development by North Korea in the Post-Cold War era
- end of regime competition between two Koreas
- two nuclear developments (1994-1994 and 2002-present)

Koreans celebrating the liberation (1945)
Division of Korea (documentary)

For the comments, see separate sheet.
State Building in the North
Soviet influence for the early establishment of leadership
- Selection of the leader: Kim Il Sung
- Why Kim? (1) no experience of engagement in the
factional division in communist movement in Korea in
1920s and 1930s; (2) Soviet’s familiarity with Kim who
served in the Far Eastern Russia army
- Soviet helped Kim by blocking of entry of armed forces
from foreign territory, especially from China

In addition to Soviet influence, there were other factors
for the rapid formation of state, centered around Kim Il
Sung
- existence of segments of communists in Korea during the
Japanese colonial rule
- ideological similarity among the factions after arrest of
nationalists

North Korean leader, Kim Il Sung (1945)
State Building in the South
Strong US influence and support for Rhee Syngman, but
relatively confrontational process in the state formation
- Despite no allowance of political organizations by the
Military Government led by US forces, there were severe
confrontations among political factions of different
ideological orientations.
- The factions included communists, nationalists, Shanghai
interim government leaders, and social democrats.
- With the oppression made by the Military Government,
the communist escaped to the North, and interim
government faction and social democrats were driven
out from the political scene.
- In the end, Rhee Syngman prevailed in politics.

South Korean leader, Rhee Syngman (1948)
Origins of Korean War (1950-53)
Theories on the origin of the war
- Kim Il Sung’s initiative
- Stalin’s rollback strategy
- internal war between two conflicting communities (North and South
Koreas)

The Korean War, mixture of domestic and international factors.
- Rhee Syngman's “unification through marching to the North” vs. Kim
Il Sung’s “complete domination based on democratic base in the
North”
- Severe military conflicts around the 38th parallel since June 1949.
- It was not all-out struggle, but the war started a year ago.
- international support by the Soviet union and China, on the one hand,
and the United States, on the other hand.

Consequences of the Korean War
Total death toll reached around 2,500,000
- 1,316,579 North Korean soldiers and civilians
- 595,000 South Korean soldiers and civilians
36,940 US soldiers
- 500,000 Chinese soldiers


The human disaster of the Korean War outnumbered that of the
Vietnam War (death toll 1,900,000).
Unlike the nominal goal of “unification,” presented by the two Koreas,
the Korean War contributed to the consolidation of the division.
- increase in armed forces: 600,000 in the South vs. 1,100,000 in the
North
- emergence of dictatorship: Rhee and Park in the South vs. Kim and
his son, Kim Jong-il, in the North
- divergent path of development: South’s reliance on the United States
vs. North’s self-reliance

Korean War (1950-53)
Autocratic Rule in the South
Rhee Syngman’s autocratic rule
- In the midst of Korean War, Rhee adopted the
direct presidential election in 1952.
- Two years later, he illicitly passed a
constitutional amendment permitting lifelong
presidency.
- In 1960, the election fraud connected with his
campaign for a fourth presidential term brought
about a massive demonstration. He resigned
and fled to Hawaii, where he lived in exile.

Autocratic rule in the South, continue
Park Chung-hee’s authoritarian rule
- Park took power through military coup in May 1961.
- During the period of military government between 1961
and 1963, Park introduced the law banning political
activities of the old politicians and established Korean
Central Intelligence Agency (KCIA) and the Economic
Planning Board. These two organizations became the
pillars of power and legitimacy.
- After promulgation of Yushin in October 1972, Park
strengthened the authoritarian rule over the society
through presidential measures, weakening of power of
the legislative body, and press censorship.
- Yushin collapsed with the assassination of president Park
by his associate, KCIA director, Kim Jae-kyu on October
26, 1979.

Park Chung-hee after military coup
(1961)
Monolithic rule in the North
The Korean War (1950-1953) and its aftermath contributed to Kim Il
Sung’s consolidation of power base.
- Kim defeated South-origin communists right after the war broke out.
- He expelled Soviet and Chinese factions from the party in the mid1950s.
 The tool for the monolithic rule was Juche ideology. Juche means
self-reliance or independence.
 The emergence of Kim Jong-il is attributable to his political skills as
well as the preparation of power succession for twenty years.
- Kim Jong-il successfully presented himself as the authoritative
interpreter of the Juche ideology. He promulgated his father Kim Il
Sung’ idea as Kimilsungism. Also he publicized Ten Principles for
the Establishment of the Monolithic Idea in 1974.
- Kim Jong-il became a party secretary in charge of the Organization
Department as well as of Department of Propaganda and Agitation
in 1973. He began to be deeply involved in the personnel affairs.

Power Structure after Kim Il Sung’s death
president
- In the preface of the new constitution of 1998, Kim Il Sung is named
as “eternal president” of North Korea.
- The office of state president was abolished.

National Defense Committee (NDC)
- The NDC became “the highest guiding organ of the military and the
managing organ of the military affairs.”
- The Chairman of the NDC, Kim Jong-il, is in firm control of all the
armed forces and in charge of all political economic matters as well.

status of military
- Kim, in December 1996, was quoted as saying that: “The party’s
morale is so degraded that party cadres would benefit from getting
an ideological education from political officers of the military.”
- Also military’s role in the economic affairs is distinctive, especially in
the fields of construction and agriculture, as well as in military
industry.

Inter-Korean relations:
from confrontation to engagement
Confrontation, 1950s-1960s
- anti-communism vs. military adventurism

Competition, 1970s-1980s
- July 4th Joint Declaration
- regime competition accompanied by several conflicts

Gradual engagement, 1990s-present
- Basic Agreement in 1991
- 1st nuclear crisis in 1993-4
- Kim Dae-jung’s Sunshine Policy for engagement with the
North
- 2nd nuclear crisis since 2002

Inter-Korean relations:
confrontation in 1950s-1960s
South Korea
 The military regime, led by ex-general Park Chung-hee, took an
intense anti-communism policy for obtaining legitimacy from the
United States.
- Law for Anti-Communism passed in 1961
- The law prohibits not only association with communists but also aids
to them. This is a kind of special law of the existing National Security
Law that defines general anti-national activities.
North Korea
 In the process of the consolidation of Kim’s power and the
implementation of self-reliance policy, the status of military rose, and
in turn, this resulted in an adventurism provoking to the South.
- North Korean armed spy (special forces) infiltrations in 1968 targeting
Blue House, South Korean presidential house.
Pueblo Incident (1968)
Inter-Korean confrontation heightened by the abduction
of US spy ship, Pueblo, in January 1968
- The crew members were detained in North Korea for 11
months and returned in December 1968.

Inter-Korean relations:
competition in 1970s-1980s
regime competition instead of confrontation, because of changes in
international environment and domestic needs
- July 4th Joint Declaration for inter-Korean reconciliation

Background (1): international environment changes
- changes in security environment in East Asia, particularly because of
rapprochement of US-China and Japan-China relations
- Feb. 1972, president Nixon visited China, Shanghai Joint Communiqué
- Sept. 1972, Prime Minister Tanaka visited China, Tanaka-Cho Enlai Joint
Declaration

Background (2): domestic power consolidation and stability
- in North Korea, preparation for father-to-son power transfer
- “Kimilsungism” by Kim Jong-il in 1974
- in South Korea, Park’s ambition of prolonging his power
- Yushin (literally meaning renovation) in October 1972

July 4th Joint Declaration in 1972

The declaration was the culmination of inter-Korean reconciliatory
gestures in this phase of regime competition.
Main points
1. principle of unification: independence, peace, grand national
integration
2. end of denunciation and military provocation, and attempts for
prevention of military conflict
3. multi-dimensional exchanges between two Koreas
4. facilitating of Red Cross meetings
5. establishment of hot line between Pyongyang and Seoul
6. operation of North-South Coordination Committee
7. swear for the full implementation of the agreements in front of all
nation people

Inter-Korean regime competition
accompanied by severe conflicts
Gradual engagement, 1990-present
Two Koreas joined UN at the same time in Sept. 1991.
- The first formal international recognition of two states in Korean
Peninsula.
- This was one of the most meaningful events that happened in the
post-Cold War era.

Basic Agreement between two Koreas in Dec. 1991
- This agreement was followed by Joint Declaration of the
Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula in Feb. 1992.

1st nuclear crisis in 1993-4
- Despite the two agreements between two Koreas, the disclosure of
North Korea’s nuclear weapon development represented that
Korean peninsula was still in the age of Cold War.
- Geneva Agreed Framework, signed by US and North Korea in Oct.
1994, for freezing the nuclear facilities ended the crisis.

Inter-Korean relations, 1989-1992
1994 and 2000
Engagement with the North: Kim and Roh
Kim Dae-jung’s “Sunshine Policy” 1998-2003
- “buying peace with economy,” or “investment in the peace”
- collusive coalition between government and Hyundai cooperation for
the 2000 summit

Roh Moo-hyun’s “Peace and Prosperity Policy” 2003-present
- institutionalization of economic exchanges (investment guarantee,
double-taxation exemption, dispute arbitration, payment through
South and North Korean banks)
- construction of Kaesong Industrial Complex since 2000
- factories started to produce products since 2004

2nd nuclear crisis in 2002-present
- North Korea’s confession of developing of HEU project to US
Assistant Secretary of the State Department James Kelly in Oct.
2002
- 4th Six-Party Talks adopted Joint Declaration (dismantlement of North
Korean nuclear development, denuclearization of Korean peninsula,
economic assistance, U.S.-North Korea normalization)

Trend of inter-Korean trade
Trend of inter-Korean visits
Kaesong-Seoul
Kaesong Industrial Complex




The first major industrial complex that was
constructed by South Korean companies in
North Korean territory
Total 65.7 km
About 6,400 North Korean workers are
employed by Korean factries, as of March 5,
2006.
For the operation of factories, South Korean
managing staff commutes the industrial complex
by crossing the border (DMZ).
2
Conclusion

The division of Korea and the establishment of two Koreas have become the central
source of contradictions in the region, as well as the source of confrontation between two
Koreas.
- The division resulted in the war (the biggest one after the WWII); The Korean peninsula
had been the locus of East-West confrontation in the region. (US, Japan, and South Korea
vs. Russia, China, and North Korea)

The Korean peninsula is the last remaining island of the Cold War: See U.S.-North Korea
and Japan-North Korea relations.

It is necessary to find a solution to the division by peaceful coexistence between two
Koreas.
- The peaceful coexistence between two Koreas requires North Korea’s dismantlement of
nuclear weapons program and also needs the development of the relationship between
the U.S. and North Korea. There are limitations in the South Korea’s economic
engagement policy toward North Korea.
- The development of the U.S.-North Korea relationship will facilitate the normalized
relationship between Japan and North Korea and will contribute to the solution of pending
issues, including adduction issue.

There is a vision for regional cooperation through the peaceful Korean peninsula.
- in transportation (Trans-Siberian and Trans-Korean linkage to Japan) and energy (oil
and gas: Eastern Pipeline).
Table of content
3-5:
 6-8:
 9-12:
 13-20:
 21-20:
 30-34:
 35:

introduction
division and its impacts
two Koreas
the Korean War and its impacts
inter-Korean relationship
South Korea’s engagement policy
conclusion