Transcript Polish Steel Industry Report

The Steel Industry in Ukraine
April 2008
Metals Consulting International Limited
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STEEL INDUSTRY IN UKRAINE
AGENDA
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Steel demand volume
Flat product demand
Steel tube demand
Capacity expansion plans
More CIS steel information
Opportunities …
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STEEL DEMAND VOLUME
• Ukrainian steel market
in 2007 amounted to
~8.0mt demand
• Flat : long : tube mix
was 56:33:11
• Ukraine crude steel
production was ~43mt
[around 3.2% of world
output]
• Ukraine in 2007 was
world’s 3rd largest steel
exporter [~30mt], after
China [66mt] and Japan
[36mt] but ahead of
Russia [29mt]†
2007 steel consumption in Ukraine
Product
mt
Flat
4.48
Long
2.67
Tube
0.89
Total
8.04
Source: MCI assessments.
Figures are for finished steel.
†: Finished and semi-finished steel products [source: IISI]
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FLAT PRODUCT DEMAND†
2007 data
Production
mt
Product
12.58
mt
Plate
1.59
Import
1.19
Hot rolled
1.70
Export
9.29
Cold rolled
0.52
Demand
4.48
Coated
0.67
Total
4.48
Figures are Ukrainian finished
steel demand estimates for
2007. Source: MCI assessments.
Source: MCI assessments.
Note the very
marked export
orientation
Coated ratio at 15%
of flat is very low –
ratio is ~44% in EU
†: For corresponding Ukrainian or other CIS steel long product figures, please contact MCI.
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STEEL TUBE DEMAND
LDP demand structure, 2007
2007 data
mt
Item
Kt
Seamless
0.40
Production
Welded - LDP
0.06
Import
16
Welded – SDP/MDP
0.43
Export
538
Demand
0.89
Demand
Figures are MCI estimates. LDP denotes
large diameter pipe; SDP and MDP are
small and medium diameters.
Total
582
60
4.48
Source: MCI assessments.
Primarily Khartyzsk
[MetInvest Holding] but
also Novomoskovsk
[Interpipe]†
†: Both plants produce longitudinal weld rather than spiral weld large diameter pipe (LDP).
LDP is defined in terms of a 16” cut-off point [equivalent to 406.4mm diameter and above.]
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CAPACITY EXPANSION PLANS
Company
Steel
Slab
Flat
Comment
Alchevsk
Y
Y
Y
Dneprovsky
Y
Ilyich
Y
Y
Krivoy Rog
Y
Y
Vorksla Stal
Y
Y
VoestAlpine
Y
Y
Y
Rumoured; could be Bulgaria / Romania
Zaporozhstal
Y
Y
Y
Flat includes pickling and possibly hot rolling
New HSM under discussion: see ISWW
Incl billet cc for long product modernisation
Funding issue?
Y
MCI expectation
DRI based EAF steelmaking; slab only
Source: Iron & Steel Works of the World, steel sector press reports incl www.steelonthenet.com/news.php.
Long product modernisation plans include 2009 long product Mill 390 modernisation at the Makeevsky
Metallurgical Works [720 kt/year facility, 8-60mm diameter] and two new long product rolling mills at
Enakievsky [2010 upgrade]
Modernisation timeframe above is the next ~5 years approx.
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MORE CIS STEEL INFORMATION
• MCI website http://www.steelonthenet.com runs a
free CIS news page at
http://www.steelonthenet.com/feeds/russia.php
• We also publish a monthly report called ‘Memo from
Moscow’ which covers topical CIS steel industry
issues. This can be accessed free at
http://www.steelonthenet.com/moscow.html
• Our local representative are also available for iron and
steel sector research support†
†: A daily fee rate applies - please contact MCI.
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OPPORTUNITIES …
• Can MCI help your firm develop a presence in the
Ukrainian steel sector, or elsewhere in the CIS steel
industry?
• Can we help you with a steel feasibility appraisal?
• Or assist you perhaps with a due diligence study?
• If so please contact us for a no obligation discussion …
Please contact: Andrzej Kotas, Managing Director, MCI
Website: http://www.steelonthenet.com
Email: [email protected]
Mobile: +44 (0) 775 149 0885
Metals Consulting International Limited
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