Transcript Slide 1

Energy Crises: Their Imminence, Size,
Impact
Sanjay. V. Khare
Department of Physics and Astronomy,
The University of Toledo, Toledo, OH-43606
http://www.physics.utoledo.edu/~khare/
Four Distinct Crises
Problem
Imminence
Impact
Awareness
I Global Warming
Approaching
(5 to 10 years)
GRADUAL over
10 – 100+ years
HIGH
II Peak Production
Liquid Fuels
Now
(-3 to 5 years)
CATASTROPIC
Undertanding is
POOR
III Peak Production
Approaching
CATASTROPIC
Total Energy
(10 to 15 years)
Understanding
is POOR
CATASTROPIC
Can be
exacerbated by
I - III
INCREASING
IV Peak Other
Materials (food, top
soil, fertile land,
H2O, P, U, Au)
Now
(0 to 5 years)
Peak Liquid Fuels
Best
estimates
of future
world oil
production
Peak Total Energy
Total Energy
Use, 1965 to
2050
(Courtesy: Paul
Chefurka)
Net Surplus Energy (NSE)
TM
= Total mass of energy providing material
e.g., oil, coal, gas, wind turbine, PV modules
EPM = Energy produced per unit mass
NSE = TM X EPM (Naive Calculation)
Correct Calculation
EROEI= Energy Returned on Energy Invested =
NSE = TM x EPM x EROEI = TM x EPM x
E
out
E
in
E
out
E
in
We are running out of TM and EROEI
Mitigation
Type of Effort
Importance
Conservation and efficiency, personal and societal
High
Rapid deployment of existing technology, public
transport, electric-transport, wind, solar-heat and
photovoltaic, geothermal
High
Raising awareness by scientists and engineers of
locals, media and policy makers
High
Applied engineering research
Medium term
(5 – 10 years)
Long Term
Fundamental research done today will have scaled
impact after 20 years
(10 – 20 years)
Thank You
References:
• www.theoildrum.com
• www.energybulletin.net
• www.aspo-usa.org
• Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's Peak; By
Kenneth S. Deffeyes
• Out of Gas: The End of the Age of Oil; By David
Goodstein
• Twilight in the Dessert; by Matthew R. Simmons
Solar Energy of Commercially-Available Thin
Film Technologies, a-Si most clearly has no
fundamental material limitations
Crystalline PV
production
rate expected to
slow
over next few
years due
to silicon
shortage.
Thin film PV
production
rate expected to
continue
to increase.
One aspect of energy quality: a comparison of the energy content per unit
mass and per unit volume for various sources.
“Balloon graph” representing quality (y graph) and quantity (x graph) of the United
States economy for various fuels at various times. Arrows connect fuels from various
times (i.e. domestic oil in 1930, 1970, 2005), and the size of the “balloon” represents
part of the uncertainty associated with EROI estimates.
(Source: US EIA, Cutler Cleveland and C. Hall’s own EROI work in preparation)
Power Density
Power densities for fossil and renewable fuels. (Source: Smil, V.
2006. ''21st century energy: Some sobering thoughts.'' OECD
Observer 258/59: 22-23.)
Energy Surplus
The energy return on investment (EROI) for various
fuel sources in the U.S. (Source: Cutler Cleveland)
Energy and basic human needs. The international relationship between
energy use (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita) and the Human
Development Index (2000). (Source: UNDP, 2002, WRI, 2002)
Peak may have occurred about time of
Hurricane Katrina (2005)
But US oil production began to decline
in 1970
• Many oil fields,
countries, and oil
companies have
already peaked.
• The US peaked in
1970.
• 53 of 68 oil
producing
countries are in
decline.
Oil discoveries in the US peaked
- then 40 years later production peaked
The US lower 48 states
Adapted from Collin Campbell, University of Clausthal Conference, Dec 2000
If the world follows the US pattern:
…the world would peak soon
Adapted from: Richard C. Duncan and Walter Youngquist
There’s no more spare capacity in
the world supply
30%
Spare capacity =
how much extra oil
can be produced
within 30 days
notice and
maintained for 90
days
25%
20%
SPARE OIL
PRODUCTION
15%
CAPACITY
10%
5%
0%
1985
Adapted from “The Oil Age is Over”, Matt Savinar
1990
2003
2004
Year
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Abu
Dhabi
28.0
29.0
30.6
30.5
30.4
30.5
30.0
31.0
92.2
92.2
92.2
92.2
92.2
92.2
92.2
92.2
92.2
92.2
92.2
92.2
92.2
92.2
92.2
Dubai
Iran
Iraq
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.3
4.3
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
58.0
57.5
57.0
55.3
51.0
48.5
47.9
48.8
92.9
92.9
92.9
92.9
92.9
92.9
89.3
88.2
93.0
93.0
89.7
89.7
89.7
89.7
89.7
31.0
30.0
29.7
41.0
43.0
44.5
44.1
47.1
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
112.0
112.5
112.5
112.5
112.5
112.5
112.5
Kuwait Neutral
Zone
65
6.1
66
6.0
65
5.9
64
5.7
64
5.6
90
5.4
90
5.4
92
5.3
92
5.2
92
5.2
92
5.0
95
5.0
94
5.0
94
5.0
94
5.0
94
5.0
94
5.0
94
5.0
94
5.0
94
5.0
94
5.0
94
5.0
94
5.0
Saudi
Arabia
163
165
165
162
166
169
169
167
167
170
258
258
258
259
259
259
259
259
259
261
261
261
261
Venezuela
18
18
20
22
25
26
26
25
56
58
59
59
63
63
65
65
65
72
73
73
77
78
78
Spurious
OPEC
Reserve
Revisions
Global Oil Production, 1965 to 2050
Global Natural Gas Production, 1965 to 2050
Global Coal Production, 1965 to 2050
Global Hydro Production, 1965 to 2050
Global Nuclear Production, 1965 to 2100
Actual and Projected Wind Power, 1997 to 2050
Actual and Projected Solar Power, 1996 to 2050
Other Renewable Energy Production, 1990 to 2100
Energy Use by Source, 1965 to 2100
The Global Energy Mix in 1965
The Global Energy Mix in 2005
The Global Energy Mix in 2050
The life support pie is shrinking:
The foundation of all
agriculture, the soil,
is diminishing in all
parts of the world
Aquifers are being
pumped dry
Biodiversity is
being
extinguished
Forests are
disappearing
Fisheries are
being
decimated
Rivers are
drying up
Fossil Fuel and Agriculture
• Farming “is an annual artificial catastrophe,
and it requires the equivalent of three or four
tons of TNT per acre for a modern American
farm. Iowa's fields require the energy of 4,000
Nagasaki bombs every year.” 1
1 Richard Manning; “The Oil We Eat”, Harpers, 2005. Mr. Manning was referring to the
growing of the world’s major grain crops - corn, rice and wheat.
Fertilizer Association of Ireland
“World population today stands at 5.8 billion and is
expected to increase to 8.0 billion by 2020. Cereals are
the world's most important stable nutrient source and
to meet future demand cereal production will need to
double by the year 2020. Production of other foodstuffs
will also have to increase significantly.Fertilizer, both
organic and inorganic, will have to play a vital role if
the food production necessary to support the
increased population is to be provided”.
Saudi saying:
“My father rode a
camel.
I drive a car.
My son flies a jet
airplane.
His son will ride a
camel.”
• A quad is a unit of energy equal to 1015 (a quadrillion) BTU,
or 1.055 × 1018 joules (1.055 exajoules or EJ) in SI units.
• 1018 = exa- (EJ)
1x electron-volt (eV)
=
1.602 x 10-19 joule
1 x calorie (cal.)
=
4.1868 joules
1 x kilocalorie (kcal.)
=
4.1868 x 103 joules
1 x British Thermal Unit (BTU)
=
1,055 joules
=
252 cal.
1 x millions BTU (MMBTU)
=
1.055 x 109 joules
1 x quadrillion BTU (quad)
=
1.055 x 1018 joules
=
1 x 1015 BTU
=
1.055 x 108 joules
=
1 x 105 BTU
1 x kilowatt-hour
=
3.6 x 106 joules
1 x megawatt-hour
=
3.6 x 109 joules
1 x gigawatt-hour
=
3.6 x 1012 joules
1 x ton of oil equivalent (toe)
=
4.1868 x 1010 joules
1 x million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe)
=
4.1868 x 1016 joules
1 x them
•
•
•
American barrel = 158.984 liters = 42 American (US) gallons = 3.78541 cubic
decimeters (dm3) = 0.136 tonne (approx)
1 MMSCF of natural gas = 172.3 barrels of crude oil equivalent = 365 x 1,000,000
scf 1 million cu.ft. of natural gas = 18.91 tons liquid = 1598.69 cu.ft.liquid 1 std.cu.feet
of natural gas = 1000 BTU = 252 kilocalories 1 m.ton of coal = 4.879 barrels of crude
oil equivalent 1 m.ton of lignite = 2.053 barrels of crude oil equivalent 1 ltr of fuel oil
1500 sec = 38.9 cubic feet of natural gas 1 kg of LPG = 47.0 cubic feet of natural gas
1 normal cu.m. per day (Nm3/d) = 37.33 standard cu.ft. per day (SCFD) [flow rate of
gas] 1 ton of LNG = 1.14 1.4 x 103 normal cu.m.natural (LNG conversions) gas
(Nm3) = 52.3 x 103 standard cubic feet natural gas (SCF) = 55.0 x 109 joules (HHV)
1 ton of LNG = 1.22 tonne crude oil (energy equivalents) = 0.80 tonne heavy fuel oil =
0.91 tonne LPG (commercial composition) = 1.91 tonne coal 1 barrel per day (b/d) =
50 tonnes per year (approx.) 1 barrel of oil equivalent = 1 barrel of crude oil = 5,487
cubic feet of gas **
Natural gas is converted to barrels of oil equivalent using a ratio of 5,487 cubic feet of
natural gas per one barrel of crude oil. This ratio is based on the actual average
equivalent energy content of TOTAL's natural gas reserves.