Transcript Future Home - Minnesota Futurists / FrontPage

Future Home
Presented to the
Minnesota Futurists
July 25, 2009
by David Keenan
Agenda
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Motivation
Futurist Methodology
Energy
“i-House”
Appliances
Automated Homes for the Elderly
Summary
Discussion
Links
Motivation
Family Meeting – Contingency Planning for Mother (83)
Our goal:
• The goal of this contingency planning is so the family can be prepared and
communicate our concerns and questions to you and to get your input so that
we can act according to your wishes in case an emergency event occurs.
What can we do in the meantime to make you more comfortable and avoid
preventable emergencies?
•
As children, our goal is to help Mom be safe, be healthy, and be happy.
Meeting guidelines:
• To be successful, we will be open, frank, have an honest exchange, and agree
that this is a family confidential business to be safe-guarded accordingly.
•
We also realize that a record of actions, decisions, and assignments that come
from this meeting will be recorded so that all members will know what to do in
the future.
•
We will try to be calm and open to all input from all family members.
Motivation
Family Meeting – Contingency Planning for Mother (83)
Topics of Discussion
• Financial Status:
– Income and current burn rate, impact of increasing expenses
• Health Issues:
–
–
–
–
–
Latest update
Emergency plan
Contingency plan for rapid decline
Medications: Available, correctly dosed for daily use, guidelines
Exercise
Motivation
Family Meeting – Contingency Planning for Mother (83)
Topics of Discussion continued
• Safety Issues: reducing personal risk
– Driving – Guidelines and Issues
– Slips and falls – rails and other handholds, non-slip steps
– Lifeline – consider subscription
• Daily routine to support quality of life:
–
–
–
–
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Daily calls – Reduce confusion, aid memory of appointments and events
Routine maintenance - managing services
Groceries / Meal prep / Nutrition
Hygiene supplies and issues
Best use of Home Care aide
• What the Future holds:
– Future housing, transportation options
– What can we do to help
Futurist Methodology
• Possible Future
• Probable Future
• Preferable Future
5 Future Technologies
That Will Slash Home Energy Use
• Consumers have heard for years that solar, wind, and
geothermal power might soon cut their monthly energy
bills. But things get exciting, even exotic, looking a
decade or two ahead.
• Scientists envision that light bulbs will talk to switches,
furnaces to windows, and everything to the Internet.
Homes generate their own power in basement plants.
Windows and paint change color to harvest sunlight or
reject it.
http://www.usnews.com/articles/business/technology/2009/03/18/5-future-technologies-that-will-slash-home-energy-use.html
5 Future Technologies
That Will Slash Home Energy Use
• But it's one thing for scientists to talk game and another
for builders and homeowners to play. Cutting home
energy use means changing consumer behavior and
industry practice.
• "The construction trades are among the most
conservative out there," says Leon Glicksman, a
professor of building technology at the MIT. It's also a
highly fragmented, diffuse industry of mostly small
contractors installing separate systems in a home. One
does heating, another lighting, a third the electrical
system. There often is nobody who integrates the many
systems with an eye to energy savings.
http://www.usnews.com/articles/business/technology/2009/03/18/5-future-technologies-that-will-slash-home-energy-use.html
5 Future Technologies
That Will Slash Home Energy Use
• So as much as scientists like to talk whiz-bang for the
future, what's also needed is training. "It'll be interesting
to see 10 or 20 years from now how much progress is
technology oriented and how much is education based,"
says Dariush Arasteh, who studies building technology at
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.
• That said, promising new technologies are emerging in
labs, and some in commercial buildings, that in a decade
or two could win over even the most skeptical builders
and homeowners.
http://www.usnews.com/articles/business/technology/2009/03/18/5-future-technologies-that-will-slash-home-energy-use.html
5 Future Technologies
That Will Slash Home Energy Use
Tunable tints
• In most U.S. climates, there is no easy answer when
looking for energy-efficient windows. Today's panes tend
to be specific to a type of weather—glass can be treated to
reflect sunlight for warm-weather areas or not reflect it for
colder climes. "If you're in St. Louis, you ideally want one
in summer and another in winter," says Arasteh, whose lab
studies window energy use.
• Intense research is focusing on smarter windows that can
change their coating on demand. A tint could block the sun
in hot weather but fade on cold days to let in warm rays.
Special "electrochromic" coatings darken when a small
voltage is applied. A Minnesota company, Sage
Electrochromics, already sells early versions that are used
in some high-end homes, usually as skylights.
http://www.usnews.com/articles/business/technology/2009/03/18/5-future-technologies-that-will-slash-home-energy-use.html
5 Future Technologies
That Will Slash Home Energy Use
Tunable tints continued
• At current high prices, they make more economic sense
for commercial buildings. Factories and offices could
reduce daytime lighting costs with more windows but can't
afford to let in the sun's heating rays. Homes tend to need
more of their light at night and benefit less from natural
illumination.
• Still, commercial sales can help fine-tune production to
get costs down. Then the entire window-producing
industry must revamp itself for the new tech, an issue that
has held up other energy-saving approaches, such as
triple-pane windows. "It's like having a factory that's set up
to make simple sandwiches," says Arasteh. "Now you're
asking them to make club sandwiches. These changes
take years."
http://www.usnews.com/articles/business/technology/2009/03/18/5-future-technologies-that-will-slash-home-energy-use.html
5 Future Technologies
That Will Slash Home Energy Use
Smart homes
• Existing home heating, cooling, and lighting systems could save
energy with some new smarts. Lights typically don't know they can turn
off or dim when the sun comes up, and air handlers continue blowing
heated or cooled air at open windows. Simple networking that got all of
them talking could wring out a third of energy use in a building, says
Neil Gershenfeld, an MIT computer science professor: "It's sort of an
Internet of things.“
• Many companies have tried for the smart home. About 20 different
families of gear already exist. But they're not made to work with one
another, and none can expand to handle complex systems while being
cheap enough to work with a simple light bulb. Gershenfeld's lab has
developed a simple networking language—think Morse code—that can
turn a light bulb into a node on the Internet, sending and receiving
data. The same code could control complicated heating and cooling
systems that respond to outside temperature changes, or as people
come and go.
http://www.usnews.com/articles/business/technology/2009/03/18/5-future-technologies-that-will-slash-home-energy-use.html
5 Future Technologies
That Will Slash Home Energy Use
Smart homes continued
• Prototypes already exist of hardware that a homeowner
might install cheaply, even in an existing structure. One
attraction: "We don't have to rewire the whole building,"
says Charlie Catlett, chief information officer at Argonne
National Laboratory, which is installing an early test of
the system in one of its buildings. Plus, "these things are
so cheap and small that we can actually think about
putting them into things like chairs and light bulbs."
http://www.usnews.com/articles/business/technology/2009/03/18/5-future-technologies-that-will-slash-home-energy-use.html
5 Future Technologies
That Will Slash Home Energy Use
Frozen smoke.
• Nothing is weirder than the aerogel that might one day
keep our homes comfy. One of the lightest solids known
to man, the translucent and wispy material looks like a
slice of solid smoke. It's about 99 percent gas trapped in
nano-size bubbles within a lacelike material, and there is
no better insulation for a given thickness. "The problem
is that for now it's expensive as heck," says Andre
Desjarlais at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory.
http://www.usnews.com/articles/business/technology/2009/03/18/5-future-technologies-that-will-slash-home-energy-use.html
5 Future Technologies
That Will Slash Home Energy Use
Frozen smoke continued
• But breaking into the construction industry, which uses
nearly two thirds of all insulation produced, is a priority for
the few small companies commercially producing the
ethereal stuff. "We're focused on those areas where space
is at a premium," says Aspen Aerogels CEO Don Young.
• That means retrofitting existing structures, particularly older
masonry walls with no hollows for stuffing conventional
insulation. Public partners are helping to pay to install
aerogel insulation in more than 250 New York City housing
units as an early test. For now, though, aerogel will largely
remain a tool for space agencies, the Pentagon, and oil
companies that can pay the steep premium.
http://www.usnews.com/articles/business/technology/2009/03/18/5-future-technologies-that-will-slash-home-energy-use.html
5 Future Technologies
That Will Slash Home Energy Use
Frozen smoke continued
• Desjarlais's lab at Oak Ridge focuses on technology to
secure the building "envelope" for energy efficiency. It
includes a number of bizarre-sounding technologies,
such as paint that's white one minute to reflect sunlight
and later darkens to collect it. But nothing can top the
weird nature of frozen smoke.
http://www.usnews.com/articles/business/technology/2009/03/18/5-future-technologies-that-will-slash-home-energy-use.html
5 Future Technologies
That Will Slash Home Energy Use
Home hydrogen
• Fuel cells have powered space flight for decades, and auto
companies hope they'll soon be ready for cars. In a decade
or two, they should be commonly available for the
basement, says Tom Drennen, an associate professor at
Hobart and William Smith Colleges and coauthor of
Pathways to a Hydrogen Future. "There's a lot of efficiency
in generating electricity where it is used," he says.
• Fuel cells generate electricity through a chemical process
that combines hydrogen and oxygen. When the inputs are
pure, the only side products are water and heat in a
process that's long been perfected. "What's not perfected is
getting the fuel, the hydrogen, to them," says Branko Terzic,
a Deloitte consultant on energy policy.
http://www.usnews.com/articles/business/technology/2009/03/18/5-future-technologies-that-will-slash-home-energy-use.html
5 Future Technologies
That Will Slash Home Energy Use
Home hydrogen continued
• A few Japanese companies have installed experimental
models in homes that run off natural gas. An added
device strips hydrogen from the gas to fuel the cells,
which generate electricity and hot water. A smaller slice
of American homes have gas service, limiting that
approach here. Converting natural gas also produces
greenhouse gases. But the process is still less polluting
than traditional electrical generation. "And nothing's
wasted getting it to the home," Drennen says.
http://www.usnews.com/articles/business/technology/2009/03/18/5-future-technologies-that-will-slash-home-energy-use.html
5 Future Technologies
That Will Slash Home Energy Use
Brighter bulbs
• Here's a twist on the old joke: In a few decades, nobody
will know what it even means to change a light bulb.
"The house will get torn down before a light bulb ever
burns out," says Russell Dupuis, a professor at the
Georgia Institute of Technology and fan of light-emitting
diodes, or LEDs.
• The 130-year-old Edison bulbs will first get replaced in
the home by compact fluorescents, which use about a
third the energy and last years longer. Even more
miserly LEDs are expected to later replace fluorescents.
LEDs use about 12 percent the energy of incandescents
and can last 50 years or more.
http://www.usnews.com/articles/business/technology/2009/03/18/5-future-technologies-that-will-slash-home-energy-use.html
5 Future Technologies
That Will Slash Home Energy Use
Brighter bulbs continued
• They've already become popular in some commercial
settings, particularly where lights burn 24-7—such as the
freezer at an all-night Wal-Mart.
• Steep initial costs limit their appeal to U.S. homeowners.
People just can't embrace spending $120 or $130 on a
bulb. While even that steep price can earn a payback in
eight or 10 years, it's too long for the typically nomadic U.S.
homeowner. Dupuis dreams that people soon will ask
whether a prospective home has LED lights and will pay
more for one that does. He should—he built a passel of
them into his house.
http://www.usnews.com/articles/business/technology/2009/03/18/5-future-technologies-that-will-slash-home-energy-use.html
5 Future Technologies
That Will Slash Home Energy Use
Video:
http://www.usnews.com/articles/business/technology/2
009/03/18/5-future-technologies-that-will-slash-homeenergy-use/video/
http://www.usnews.com/articles/business/technology/2009/03/18/5-future-technologies-that-will-slash-home-energy-use.html
i-House
In this Oct. 28,
2008 image
released by Clayton
Homes Inc., the
new "i-house" is
shown. The solarpowered, energy
efficient prefab
house features
decks on the
ground level and on
the roof of the
detached "flex
room." (AP
Photo/Clayton
Homes)
http://www.usnews.com/articles/science/2009/05/06/green-i-house-is-giant-leap-from-trailer-park.html
i-House
• From its bamboo floors to its rooftop deck, Clayton Homes'
new industrial-chic "i-house" is about as far removed from
a mobile home as an iPod from a record player.
• Architects at the country's largest manufactured home
company embraced the basic rectangular form of what
began as housing on wheels and gave it a postmodern turn
with a distinctive v-shaped roofline, energy efficiency and
luxury appointments.
• Stylistically, the "i-house" might be more at home in the
pages of a cutting-edge architectural magazine like Dwell
— an inspirational source — than among the Cape Cods
and ranchers in the suburbs.
http://www.usnews.com/articles/science/2009/05/06/green-i-house-is-giant-leap-from-trailer-park.html
i-House
Artist rendering provided by Clayton Homes Inc. of Tennessee
Floor plan of its new solar-powered, energy efficient "i-house". The prefab home can
be altered, by the buyer, in size and shape. In this example, the core of the house
has a second bedroom and has been arranged in an "L" pattern with the separate
"flex room" off the deck. (AP Photo/Clayton Homes Inc.)
http://www.usnews.com/articles/science/2009/05/06/green-i-house-is-giant-leap-from-trailer-park.html
i-House
• The layout of the long main "core" house and a separate
box-shaped guestroom-office "flex room" resemble the
letter "i'' and its dot. Yet Clayton CEO and President Kevin
Clayton said "i-house" stands for more than its footprint.
• With a nod to the iPod and iPhone, Clayton said, "We love
what it represents. We are fans of Apple and all that they
have done. But the 'I' stands for innovation, inspiration,
intelligence and integration.“
• Clayton's "i-house" was conceived as a moderately priced
"plug and play" dwelling for environmentally conscious
homebuyers. It went on sale nationwide 2 May 2009 with
its presentation at the annual shareholders' meeting of
investor Warren Buffett's Berkshire-Hathaway Inc. in
Omaha, Neb.
http://www.usnews.com/articles/science/2009/05/06/green-i-house-is-giant-leap-from-trailer-park.html
i-House
• "This innovative 'green' home, featuring solar panels and
numerous other energy-saving products, is truly a home of
the future," Buffett wrote his shareholders. "Estimated
costs for electricity and heating total only about $1 per day
when the home is sited in an area like Omaha.“
• Maryville, Tenn.-based Clayton Homes, acquired by
Berkshire-Hathaway in a $1.7 billion buyout in 2003,
delivered 27,499 mobile or manufactured homes last year,
a third of the industry total. Kevin Clayton thinks the
"i-house" very quickly could represent more than 10% of its
business.
• Clayton Homes plans to price the "i-house" at $100 to $130
a square foot, depending on amenities and add-ons, such
as additional bedrooms. A stick-built house with similar
features could range from $200 to $300 a square foot to
start, said Chris Nicely, Clayton marketing vice president.
http://www.usnews.com/articles/science/2009/05/06/green-i-house-is-giant-leap-from-trailer-park.html
i-House
• The "i-house's" metal v-shaped roof — inspired by a gasstation awning — combines design with function. The roof
provides a rain water catchment system for recycling,
supports flush-mounted solar panels and vaults interior
ceilings at each end to 10 1/2 feet for an added feeling of
openness.
• The Energy Star-rated design features heavy insulation, sixinch thick exterior walls, cement board and corrugated metal
siding, energy efficient appliances, a tankless water heater,
dual-flush toilets and lots of "low-e" glazed windows.
• The company said the prototype at roughly 52,000 pounds
may be the heaviest home it's ever built.
http://www.usnews.com/articles/science/2009/05/06/green-i-house-is-giant-leap-from-trailer-park.html
i-House
• The key cost difference is from the savings Clayton achieves
by building homes in volume in green standardized factories
with very little waste. Clayton has 4 plants in OR, TN, CA
and NM geared up for "i-house" production.
• A 1,000 SF prototype unveiled at a Clayton show in Knoxville
was priced at around $140,000. It came furnished, with a
master bedroom, full bath, open kitchen and living room with
Ikea cabinetry, two ground-level deck areas and a separate
"flex room" with a second full bath and a second-story deck
covered by a sail-like canopy.
http://www.usnews.com/articles/science/2009/05/06/green-i-house-is-giant-leap-from-trailer-park.html
i-House
• "It does not look like your typical manufactured home," said
Thayer Long with the Manufactured Housing Institute, a
Washington-based group representing 370 manufactured
and modular home-building companies.
• And shattering those mobile home stereotypes is a good
thing, he said. "I think the 'i-house' is just more proof that the
industry is capable of delivering homes that are highly
customizable at an affordable price.“
• Video Tour
Clayton Homes "i-house" tour.
http://www.usnews.com/articles/science/2009/05/06/green-i-house-is-giant-leap-from-trailer-park.html
Future Home Appliances
Beautiful and Elegant Vera Kettle by Bugatti
• VERA is an electronically controlled concept
kettle design which brings together
technology and elegance.
• Achieves required temperature and ensures
optimal and uniform heating for of each hot
beverage. The touch buttons along with the
display screen is embedded in the handle
and the 360o base ensure easy operating.
• The combination of latest technological
developments and the stylish conical shape
provides high thermal efficiency to
significantly reduce energy consumption.
• VERA is available in different colors.
http://www.tuvie.com/category/home-appliances
Designer : Andreas Seegatz
Future Home Appliances
Rolly Cook : Portable Oven Concept
• Medical researches have shown
that burnt food is always harmful
for human body and are linked
with the expansion of cancer cells.
• So, in order to keep your food
unburned, you need to swirl it
regularly.
•
Rolly Cook is a portable oven concept that can efficiently do this.
This handy tool reduces the risk of burning your food in an innovative
and well-designed way. It includes a central mechanism that spins two
cylindrical containers on both sides. This continuous movement of the
containers averts the risk of food burning.
http://www.tuvie.com/category/home-appliances
Future Home Appliances
Rolly Cook : Portable Oven Concept
http://www.tuvie.com/category/home-appliances
Designer : Jin-Young Lee
Future Home Appliances
Portable Iron with Two Heating Plates
• Features a rail mechanism that allows the
user to transform the smart box easily into
an iron.
• Not intended for massive number of clothes,
this will useful when you are on a trip.
• This iron includes two heating plates placed
one on another with a spring between them.
This two plate design will allow easier
ironing of the collar by simply putting it
between them and gently heating.
• This iron can be operated on standard
electrical power when you need full heating
power. Additionally, it works also on battery
when you are roaming.
http://www.tuvie.com/category/home-appliances
Designer : Apostol Tnokovski
Future Home Appliances
Modular Recycle Bin
• Designed in a traditional and simple
shape, it offers the user a wide range
of functions.
• Recycled materials have been used to
produce the bin and the most
wonderful feature is its three adjustable
interior compartments.
• These are made of plastic, glass and
tin, and acts like a water bladder that
can change size according to the
inserted items in the individual
compartments.
• Other noteworthy features are large
wheels, extendable handles, step-toopen lid, interior rinse function,
extendable interior space and fourth
slot for recycling cardboard.
http://www.tuvie.com/category/home-appliances
Designer : Dave Strydom
Future Home Appliances
aXbo Sleep Phase Alarm Clock
• The aXbo sleep phase alarm clock gives the
user the feeling of having woken up all by
himself.
• Crucial for its functional design were the
latest findings in sleep research. Studies
show that we pass through several sleep
phases each night, alternating between deep
sleep, light sleep and dream phases.
• Each of these phases is characterized by
different body motions. The sleep phase
alarm clock uses the activity that occurs in
each of these phases.
• A motion detection system has been integrated into a comfy terry-cloth
wristband, memorizing all physical motions and transmitting them to the
alarm clock. The aXbo registers which sleep phase the user is in at any
time, and calculates the optimal wake-up moment within 30 minutes of the
desired wake-up time. This turns waking up into a gentle experience
makes for a smooth and relaxed start to the day.
http://www.tuvie.com/category/gadgets/clock
Designer : Rouven Haas
Caregiver Internet Monitoring
Camera System
• Monitor your loved one LIVE over the internet.
See what is going on at their home. 24 hrs/dy.
• You can do a lot to keep your elderly loved
one at home instead of a nursing home. We
all know that mentally and physically they are
better off at home.
• Provide them with tools that help them be
independent including many home automation
products like motion activated faucets, talking caller id
boxes, voice activated products and more.
•
One of the most important ideas is to install a LIVE video monitoring
system in their home. This will give them the security of knowing that
someone is looking out for them. This will also give you the comfort and
security to know exactly who was there. How they treated your loved one
and ensure that your loved one is ok.
http://assistivetechnologyservices.com/buy/All_Products/Live_Internet_Camera_Systems/Home_Office_DayCare_Internet_Camera
_System_75383.aspx
Caregiver Internet Monitoring
Camera System
• This system from Assistive Technology Services a pan and tilt camera
can be installed in the most suitable location to monitor your loved one
at the most critical areas of the home where accidents may occur the
most. More cameras can be installed if the area is large.
• The system will automatically take snapshots from 5 second intervals
and up. You can then review all these snapshots from any web browser.
You can also connect and view LIVE video 24 hours a day remotely.
• The great thing is that this can be done by the entire family. As many
people can attach at the same time as you give security access.
• This system saves those trips to 'check-up' on them and provides a
great feeling of comfort to both you and your loved one.
http://assistivetechnologyservices.com/buy/All_Products/Live_Internet_Camera_Systems/Home_Office_DayCare_Internet_Camera
_System_75383.aspx
Automated Homes for the Elderly
Eaton Holec’s Xanura home automation system
• Until now home automation appliances and equipment
have been mainly geared to making life easier and more
convenient. By contrast the Xanura care concept places
emphasis on safety features as it largely addresses the
needs of the elderly, be they living alone or as a couple and
leading quite independent lives in a house or apartment.
http://www.leonardo-energy.org/webfm_send/163
Automated Homes for the Elderly
Eaton Holec’s Xanura home automation system features
• All lights are switched on if the resident or the system triggers an alarm.
• Certain, non-essential electrical equipment and all equipment that
produces sound (radio, TV, etc.) is automatically switched off when an
alarm is given.
• The social services care control can remotely let the dedicated/specified
care giver into the home.
• Activity tracking is continuous, so that were the resident to have been
inactive (ie. not pressed a button or passed a movement sensor) for a
given time period, an alarm is automatically set off.
• When the resident gets out of bed during the night, a passageway to
the bathroom is automatically lit.
• The home can be set to day or night mode from the bedroom.
• The home can be set to “at home” or “out” mode at the front door.
• It incorporates both automated fire alarm and intruder reporting
systems.
• All kitchen equipment is automatically switched on or off.
http://www.leonardo-energy.org/webfm_send/163
Automated Homes for the Elderly
• The personal alarm unit is
located in the living room (in
this example, it is the unit
located in front of the TV on
the right).
• The resident can set off a
social services alarm himself
or herself, when he or she
feels unwell for example, by
pressing the red button of the
transponder. It can be worn
on the wrist or neck.
http://www.leonardo-energy.org/webfm_send/163
Automated Homes for the Elderly
• There is a fall line in the
bathroom. This sets off an
alarm to the social services
center when activated.
http://www.leonardo-energy.org/webfm_send/163
Automated Homes for the Elderly
• Voice activation
http://www.leonardo-energy.org/webfm_send/163
Summary
• Motivated by elderly parent, I chose to explore latest,
near and further future home design and product ideas.
• I hope this has provided some useful insight and creative
thinking.
Discussion
• Futurist Methodology
– Possible Future
– Probable Future
– Preferable Future
Links
• Home Automation/Environmental Control/Electronic Aids for Daily
Living (EADL) http://www.makoa.org/ecu.htm
• Home Automation http://home-automation.org/
• Assistive Technology Services
http://assistivetechnologyservices.com/buy/All_Products/Live_Internet
_Camera_Systems/Home_Office_DayCare_Internet_Camera_Syste
m_75383.aspx
• and http://assistivetechnologyservices.com/CaregiverSolutions.aspx
• Xanura website: www.xanura.nl
• Xanura demo home with internet access:
http://portal.homeautomationeurope.com/hae/hcb/demo2/index.html
• Other links included in preceding slides