Transcript Title

Labor Market Conditions
Prepared for
Governor’s Council of Economic Advisors
December 3, 2014
KDOL serves Kansas workers and businesses by providing fair and efficient administration of state labor laws.
Private Nonfarm Jobs
Kansas
January 2010 to October 2014
Definitions
120,000
110,000
1,130,000
100,000
1,120,000
90,000
2nd Qtr. 2014
Quarterly Census
of Employment
and Wages
1,100,000
1,090,000
Private Nonfarm Jobs,
Seasonally Adjusted (Left Axis)
1,070,000
1,060,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
8,700
7,600
10,900
12,600
12,400
13,800
14,500
14,900
9,700
11,000
13,500
16,800
11,600
13,300
12,000
20,500
23,400
25,500
16,400
18,100
26,100
15,700
15,700
15,800
16,700
17,100
19,100
12,000
13,100
8,800
15,100
15,300
14,200
21,100
21,800
22,000
20,600
23,500
17,200
17,200
12,900
15,700
13,800
13,400
16,000
20,000
14,500
9,800
13,900
1,080,000
1,050,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
-20,000
-30,000
-40,000
Month-Year
Source: Kansas Department of Labor, Labor Market Information Services, in conjunction with the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
KDOL serves Kansas workers and businesses by providing fair
and efficient administration of state labor laws.
Sep-14
Jul-14
May-14
Mar-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Nov-12
Sep-12
Jul-12
May-12
Mar-12
Jan-12
Nov-11
Sep-11
Jul-11
May-11
Mar-11
Jan-11
-60,000
Nov-10
1,000,000
-10,000
Over-the-Year Change in Private
Nonfarm Jobs (Right Axis)
-50,000
Sep-10
1,010,000
Jul-10
1,020,000
May-10
1,030,000
Mar-10 -40,900
-22,900
-16,300
-13,000
-7,300
-4,800
-4,500
1,040,000
Jan-10
Private Nonfarm Jobs (Seasonally Adjusted)
1,110,000
Over-the-Year Change in Private Nonfarm Jobs (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
1,140,000
Comparison of Two Previous Recessions
Private Sector Nonfar m Jobs, Seasonally Adjusted
Kansas
2001 Recession
102.0
2007-2009 Recession
Month 69
100.4
Apr 2008
100.0
Oct 2014
Month 78
100.1
98.0
Month 35
95.7
Index
96.0
94.0
Feb 2010
Month 22
93.2
92.0
90.0
Peak
Peak Month
Trough
Trough Month
Jobs Lost
Time Jobs Lost
Jobs Lost/Month
Time Jobs Gained
Jobs Gained/Month
2001
1,106,200
Mar 2001
1,059,100
Feb 2004
47,100
35 Months
1,346
34 Months
1,524
2007-2009
1,136,400
Apr 2008
1,059,500
Feb 2010
76,900
22 Months
3,495
56 Months
1,398
88.0
0
2
4
6
8
10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78
Recession Timeline (Months)
Source: Kansas Department of Labor, Labor Market Information Services, in conjunction with the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
KDOL serves Kansas workers and businesses by providing fair
and efficient administration of state labor laws.
22.70
22.65
22.60
22.55
22.50
22.45
22.40
22.35
22.30
22.25
22.20
22.15
22.10
22.05
22.00
21.95
21.90
21.85
21.80
21.75
21.70
21.65
21.60
21.55
21.50
21.45
21.40
785.00
782.50
780.00
Using a 12-month moving average to reduce volatility in both series, real weekly wages
reached a trough in September 2011 and started on an upward trend while real hourly
wages continued to decrease; this indicates that hours increased between September 2011
and March 2012.
May-09
770.73
777.50
775.00
772.50
Between March 2012 and
December 2012, real weekly wages
increased at a faster rate than real
hourly wages; hours increased in
the private sector.
12-month moving average of Real
Average Hourly Wage
770.00
767.50
765.00
22.01
Dec-12
756.26
757.50
755.00
Jan-14
753.94
12-month moving average of Real
Average Weekly Wage
Source: Kansas Department of Labor, Labor Market
Information Services, in conjunction with the Bureau
of Labor Statistics
750.00
747.50
745.00
742.50
Real Average Weekly Wage
KDOL serves Kansas workers and businesses by providing fair
and efficient administration of state labor laws.
Sep-14
Jul-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Sep-12
Jul-12
Nov-12
Month-Year
Real Average Hourly Wage
May-12
740.00
Mar-12
Jan-12
Nov-11
Sep-11
Jul-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jan-11
Nov-10
Sep-10
Jul-10
May-10
Mar-10
Jan-10
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jul-09
May-09
Mar-09
Sep-11
740.74
752.50
Since December 2012, real hourly wages
have increased somewhat steadily while real
weekly wages decreased until January 2014.
Since January 2014, hours have remained
steady.
Mar-12
21.54
762.50
760.22
760.00
Real Average Weekly Wage (Oct. 2014 Dollars)
Oct-09
22.53
Jan-09
Real Average Hourly Wage (Feb. 2014 Dollars)
Private Sector Real Average Hourly and Weekly Wages
Kansas (12-month moving average)
Januar y 2009 to October 2014
Nominal wages are adjusted using the
Midwest Urban Inflation rebased to October
2014.
Over the Year Change in Employment, Hours, and Wages by Industry
Kansas
October 2013 to October 2014
Industry
Total Private
Construction
Education and Health Services
Financial Activities
Leisure and Hospitality
Manufacturing
Other Services
Professional and Business Services
Trade, Transportation and Utilities
Hours
0.0%
-6.7%
1.6%
-2.2%
-0.9%
0.2%
0.3%
0.6%
0.6%
Employment
1.2%
0.8%
2.3%
0.5%
1.5%
-1.0%
5.7%
2.6%
-0.2%
Real Hourly
Earnings
1.6%
3.9%
1.7%
7.2%
2.2%
9.8%
0.7%
-1.8%
-1.2%
Source: Kansas Department of Labor, Labor Market Information Services in conjunction with the Bureau of Labor Statistics
KDOL serves Kansas workers and businesses by providing fair
and efficient administration of state labor laws.
Percent of all
Private Sector
Jobs
100%
5%
17%
7%
11%
14%
5%
15%
23%
Unemployment Rate
Kansas and U.S.
Januar y 2012 - October 2014
U.S.
10.5
Kansas
U.S. Adj.
Kansas Adj.
Unemployment Rate (%)
9.5
8.5
7.5
6.5
5.5
4.5
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
May-13
Apr-13
Mar-13
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
3.5
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Aug Sep Oct
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
U.S.
8.8 8.7 8.4 7.7 7.9 8.4 8.6 8.2 7.6 7.5 7.4 7.6 8.5 8.1 7.6 7.1 7.3 7.8 7.7 7.3 7.0 7.0 6.6 6.5 7.0 7.0 6.8 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.3 5.7 5.5
Kansas
6.3 6.3 6.2 5.5 5.6 5.9 6.4 6.0 5.4 5.3 5.1 5.4 6.3 5.9 5.8 5.1 5.5 5.7 6.0 5.7 5.1 4.9 4.5 4.6 5.4 5.5 5.0 4.4 4.6 5.1 5.4 4.8 4.3 3.8
U.S. Adj.
8.2 8.3 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.1 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.9 7.9 7.7 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.0 6.7 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.3 6.3 6.1 6.2 6.1 5.9 5.8
Kansas Adj.
5.9 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.3 5.2 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.7 4.4
Source: Kansas Department of Labor, Labor Market Information Services, in conjunction with the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
KDOL serves Kansas workers and businesses by providing fair
and efficient administration of state labor laws.
104 of the 105 Kansas counties are below
the national unemployment rate.
KDOL serves Kansas workers and businesses by providing fair
and efficient administration of state labor laws.
www.dol.ks.gov
Tyler Tenbrink
Labor Market Information
Services (LMIS)
Presenter
Phone: (785) 296-5000 ext.2593
Email: [email protected]
KDOL serves Kansas workers and businesses by providing fair and efficient administration of state labor laws.