Transcript Document

Hydro-meteorology:
Providing solutions to weather conundrums
John Henz,
Certified Consulting Meteorologist or C.C.M.
HDR Hydro-Meteorological Services
• El Nino and La Nina confusing the drought
• What will Winter 02-03 hold? Drought?
Average Or Excess Precipitation?
• Fire, Mud, Floods: what to do
• Precipitation questions
Way too much plus mud after fire!!!!!
“Too much” again!
“Too Little” / “Too Late”
for Agriculture!
Frederic Remington knew the value of water in the West
“The Fight for the Waterhole” 1903
So did Stanley Kubrick in 2001: Space Odyssey
the more things change
the more they stay the same!
Colorado’s Water wars have Started!
• August 12, Rocky Mountain News headline
• Golden “at war” with downstream users;
loses
• Continued “drought-like” conditions: will they
persist or is a change developing?
• What will Winter 02-03 hold? Drought?
Average Or Excess Precipitation?
• How far could we look ahead if we wanted?
“conundrum”: a puzzle or mystery usually
solved by a riddle.
Three men agree to share a cab from the airport into town.
When they arrive, the meter reads $25. Each man gives the
driver a $10 bill. She hands them five $1 bills as change.
Each man takes one of the $1 bills. They give the driver the
remaining two $1 bills as a tip.
Each man has now spent nine dollars and the driver has two
dollars for a total of $29. Where is the other dollar?
Your challenge is to explain this paradox
The Water Supplier Conundrum
Three water suppliers face a severe drought.
They each ask a meteorologist how much snow will fall in the
mountains.
One meteorologist says 70% of normal; the drought is in
control and shows no signs of departing.
The next meteorologist says 100% of normal: the drought is
waning, El Nino is coming, but it’ll take two winters to catch up.
The final meteorologist says 120% of normal; El Nino will chase
the drought away.
Your challenge is to who to believe
What’s ahead for the WY02/03?
Where we are now! Very, very dry!
Here’s what NWS expects: is where we’ve been?
El Nino/La Nina
Storm Tracks
• El Nino tends to be
wet during winter
• La Nina tends to be
dry during winter
• La Na Da: Neutral
tends to flip/flop
depending on cycle
Why has it been so dry and warm?
La Na Da’s Split storm track around Colorado.
The El Nino/La Nina Cycle is a dynamic
Summed number of years per decade
the basin average precip is +/- 2” of normal.
Notice the in-sync(’90-’50) and out of sync(’60-’90} cycles
Is Colorado Decadal Precipitation Cyclic
with El Nino and La Nina?
So how have El Nino and La Nina’s impacted
Colorado winter precipitation?
• La Nina’s tend to produce below normal snow
packs and meager summer rains. Favor
development of multiple dry year sequences
or droughts
• El Nino’s tend to support average to above
average winter snow packs and above
average spring general storm rain/snow and
summer monsoon rains for 6-18 months
• La Na Da’s can go either way! (The key?)
All La Nina’s are not created equal!
La Na Da or neutral periods are very different!
Current 01/02 El Nino in dashed black :
Can you spot a trend?
82/83, 91/92, 95/95 and 97/98 El Nino’s
Can you see the differences?
00/02 El Nino’s development.
Compares closest to 86/87 El Nino
Three El Nino’s: three different patterns!
00/02 El Nino’s development.
Compares closest to 86/88 El Nino
Is the 86/87 El Nino an analog” for 01/?
It would be nice but differences exist.
Denver El vs La:
on average only
• El Nino on top
“looks wetter”
and is esp. Spring
• La Nina on bot.
“looks drier” and
is esp. Oct-Mar
• What about
La Na Da’s?
Grand Jct. El vs. La
On average only
• El Nino on top
“looks wetter”
and is esp. Fall
and Spring
• La Nina on bot.
“looks drier” and
is esp. Mar-May
• What about
La Na Da’s?
New Mexico:
El Nino
Avg Jan-Mar Precip
• El Nino = Much wetter
than normal
• 129% of normal
in the Northwest
• 200% of normal in the
SE plains
Colorado:
El Nino
Avg. Jan-Mar Precip.
• El Nino = Moist, i.e.,
+/- 15% of normal
• Colorado West of CD:
88% of normal
East of the CD
South Platte, San Luis,
and Arkansas: 109%
to 117% of normal
• Far east Plains: 140%
Wyoming:
El Nino
Avg Jan-Mar Precip
• El Nino =
Dry side of normal
• Plains: 74%(NE) to
93% (SE) of normal
• Mountains: 80% to 94%
of normal
• “West Slope: 80-87%
El Nino Wet in NM or Dry in Mt
El Nino Wet in NM or Dry in Mt: Hmmmm
What’s ahead for the WY02/03?
Work in progress
What will Winter 02-03 hold? Drought?
Average Or Excess Precipitation?
• A moderate El Nino is developing.
• West of the Continental Divide snow-pack should
reach 80% in Colorado River basin and up to 120%
normal in Southwest basins
• East of the Continental Divide not sure yet.
NO strong signal yet!
Averages support 110% of normal but range is 60%
to 130%
Work in progress
What will Winter 03-04 hold?
Strong El Nino? La Na Da? Or La Nina?
• Key to drought recovery of our reservoir storage will
be two or more normal to wet winters in a row.
• One wet winter will not be enough especially if we
go into another “dry period” in parts of the state.
• East of the Divide soil moisture values are very low
and we need the return of winter and spring general
snow and rain storms. It has been 9 years since we
had both significant winter and spring plains snow.
Will they both return?
La Na Da research is the key!
Work in progress
How far could we look ahead if we wanted?
• Extended trend analyses of tree ring data
• Eigenvector analyses of precipitation extreme where
basin average precipitation is > 2” above or below
normal
• Physical cause/effect data base partitioning of storm
tracks, jet streams and La Na Da’s
• Next a “50-year” experimental trend outlook for
Colorado precipitation.
• Note this outlook is a work in progress!
Not ready for prime time only discussion
Summed number of years per decade the state
river basin average precip is +/- 2” of normal.
Work in progress
If this trend analysis is correct,
more dry than wet decades lie ahead
• 2000-2009: early drought tempered by wet middecade
• 2010’s: Significant drought possible
• 2020’s give a “moist breather” early
• Mid-2020’s to early 2050’s a 30-year period of very
dry conditions across Colorado and
the western US.
Work in progress
Three men agree to share a cab from the airport into town.
When they arrive, the meter reads $25. Each man gives the
driver a $10 bill. She hands them five $1 bills as change.
Each man takes one of the $1 bills. They give the driver the
remaining two $1 bills as a tip.
Each man has now spent nine dollars and the driver has two
dollars for a total of $29. Where is the other dollar?
No money has been lost
only the meaning and interpretation of the words!
The storm .. Is El Nino coming?
Yes. The end!