Transcript Slide 1
The 2007 Congressional Elections in the Philippines: An Initial Assessment
Presentation at the National Endowment for Democracy May 24, 2007 By Chito Gascon Executive Director – LIBERTAS
Reagan-Fascell Democracy Fellow
Discussion Outline
CONTEXT Historical & strategic Current conjuncture Nature of Philippine elections CONFIGURATION / CONDUCT Balance of political forces Issues raised Outcomes, trends, and flashpoints CHALLENGES / CONSIDERATIONS General observations and conclusions Scenarios and directions Policy recommendations
Catholic Bishops’ Statement (CBCP) January 2007
“
These coming elections in May 2007 are especially important. Many of our current political
problems, which have hindered fuller economic development and social justice, especially for the poor, can be traced to unresolved questions
concerning the conduct of past elections. As a nation, we cannot afford yet another controversial exercise that further aggravates social distrust and hopelessness.”
Basic Political Facts
85M people in 7K islands in South-east Asia (10 major languages) 350 years of Spanish rule American rule during the 1 st Half of the 20 th century Prior to & immediately after WW2 a r Internal armed conflicts Authoritarian rule (1972-1986) 1986: Transition to democracy epublican system was put in place patterned after the USA Widespread poverty, inequality, and injustice
One of the few democracies in the region
The Downturn
1997: Asian Financial Crisis First Major Push for Charter-Change (CHACHA) Top-down Perceived as an effort for perpetuation of power 1998 Presidential Elections Rise of a populist candidate Resurgence of Marcos-style politics and persons Bad governance, scandals, corruption
(EDSA2) Reform-oriented BUT elite-driven
The Post-EDSA2 Scenario (2001-2004)
EDSA2 Elite-driven, urban-based middle class support Promise for reforms (rhetoric rather than reality) The Rupture of the Constitution Truncated impeachment process Re-politicization of the security forces The role of the judicial system Deep Political Cleavages Mass Riots – EDSA3 Oakwood Mutiny / EDSA 20 Mutiny Resurgence of rebel activity
The 2004 Elections & Their Aftermath: Watershed Year that led to the Backwater
Notwithstanding the political divide, the 2004 national elections were seen as a
critical step
to ultimately resolving the impasse The crisis of LEGITIMACY from 2001 was aggravated by revelations of widespread electoral fraud from the 2004 elections, which only
partially
came to light in 2005, in the
Current Political Impasse
Chronic Political Crisis Moves to remove Arroyo (legal & illegal) Counter-moves to consolidate power Transactional politics & patronage CHACHA Redux Attempt to cancel elections Polarization
Crackdown on the opposition
Stakes of the May 14 Mid-Term Elections
Upper Chamber – The Senate HALF of 24 members Elected at a national level Dominated by opposition parties with only 4 seats from the administration remaining in the Chamber Lower Chamber – House of Representatives ALL seats (MIXED SYSTEM: 80% SMD + 20%MPL) 13 th Congress – 236 / 14 th held by opposition parties Congress – 265 Dominated by administration parties; only 32 seats currently ALL Local Government Positions
The Process
45 million voters 224,748 precincts (around 200 voters each) Voter fills out a blank ballot with possibly up to 33 names to write manually Counted manually at the precinct, recorded in an election return, tabulated at the municipality/city in a certificate of canvass, then
further another
tabulated at the province, then tabulation at the COMELEC
Number of Registered and Actual Voters (in millions), 1992- 2007
Election Registered Voting Percent May 2007/ projected 45.060
33.795
75.0
May 2004* May 2001 43.536
36.148
35.414
27.574
81.4
76.3
May 1998* May 1995 May 1992* 34.117
36.415
32.141
29.474
25.736
24.255
86.4
70.7
75.5
* Presidential, Congressional, AND Local Elections Source: 2005 National Statistical Coordination Board Statistical Yearbook.
The Philippine Elections as 3 Markets
Distinct but interrelated markets: • National market for senators • • Local markets for congressmen with national consequences Purely local markets for governor, mayor, and local council members
Key Stakeholders
The Party Groups ADMINISTRATION - TEAM Unity (5 Parties) OPPOSITION – The GO (5 Parties) INDEPENDENTS • Re-electionists / Returnables / Stars • AKP • ‘KBL’ The Administrative Agencies COMELEC Deputized agencies The Non-Partisan Citizens’ Monitoring Efforts Churches Schools & universities Business & professionals Civil society Media
The Framing Issues
The Lingering Question of Legitimacy Truth about 2004 results CHACHA 3 The Economy Moving on Social payback Social Issues Poverty and hunger Access to education, health & housing Corruption / Public Accountability Political Finance Extra-Judicial Killings & Disappearances The Politicization of Security Forces The Party-list System Political Dynasties ‘Moral Politics’
Trends, Flashpoints, and Outcomes
No substantial improvement in the administration of the election Problems with voter’s lists (reports of padding / other irregularities) Widespread Incidences of fraud (retail/wholesale) Weakness in enforcing election laws (campaign finance/others) Rejection of some political dynasties & consolidation of others Election-related violence Politicization of security forces
Proxy wars and iconic b attles
Emergence of a new generation of national leaders
Trends, Flashpoints, and Outcomes (continued)
The senate vote as barometer of public sentiment
Exit polls & counts show unequivocal opposition victory YET, results remain in doubt because of vote manipulation
[8-2]-2 /[ 8-1]-3 / [7-2]-3 / [7-1]-4 / [6-2]-4
Paradox: virtual hegemony of the ruling coalition at the local level YET the failure to deliver votes in the senate
80% win for the ruling parties in the House (at least 70 districts uncontested) The so-called COMMAND vote (a myth except in the ARMM) Some cracks in the façade of unity (LAKAS vs KAMPI) Marginal gains for opposition forces in the House
Some Post-Election Scenarios
Unfolding Electoral Scenarios: MASSIVE CHEATING MODERATE CHEATING TOLERABLE CHEATING Post-Election Governance Scenarios Legitimacy issue may linger BUT possible resolution would be through a utilitarian strategy (neither through democratic or revolutionary means) Crossroads: 1) gridlock or 2) workable compromise on some issues For things to move forward, the government must accept the results
The Search for Common Ground
Building Foundations for the Next Government Critical to sustain economic growth and reduce public desperation Initiate credible political, electoral, and administrative reforms to reduce imperfections in the political process and ensure credible elections in 2010 that help return stability Alternative Attitudes to the Result: Best outcome • Administration focuses on reforms rather than survival • Administration agrees to compromise for the common good Worst outcome • Administration views its partial win as endorsement of its policies • The rebuke of administration intensifies the political hostilities
Considerations / Initial Steps
Complete full automation of elections ahead of 2010 Further reduce opportunities for human intervention / human error in the counting & tabulation process Separate election adjudication & election disputes resolution from elections management functions Improve the capacity of the COMELEC Enforce election laws fully (particularly on campaign contribution & expenditure) coupled with a vigorous anti corruption effort Support civic-ed /voters ed / citizen’s oversight Initiate law reform legislation (party law / political finance) Rationalize the mobilization of election officers to include citizen volunteers Create civilian oversight & control over security forces
Possible Options & Recommendations
In order to renew civic engagement in defense of democracy:
Some key principles to this political engagement
Consider programs and activities at laying foundations for the restoration of a consensus for democracy through among others: in the run-up to the 2010 General Elections Restoring full credibility to the electoral process Cleaning-up the institutions and systems for election administration
Political party development, strengthening, and consolidation
Alternative candidates emerge with distinct visions of governance Preventing a blow-out of the economic situation in the interim period Spreading the benefits of economic growth Pursuing reform agenda in social expenditure (education, infrastructure) Reducing drivers of political polarization such as violence and exclusion
Latest Results
Projected Difference from Candidate Coalition Percent votes threshold Minimum Maximum
Legarda Escudero Villar Lacson
GO GO GO GO 58.5
53.3
49.8
46.4
19.770
18.013
16.830
15.681
8.178
6.421
5.238
4.089
18.856
17.014
15.842
14.705
20.684
19.012
17.818
16.657
Pangilinan Aquino Angara Arroyo Trillanes Zubiri Honasan
Ind GO TU TU GO TU Ind
Recto
Cayetano Pichay Pimentel TU GO TU GO 34.3
31.0
30.4
28.5
Roco Defensor GO TU 28.4
28.2
Sotto TU 26.2
Note: Sample population is 10,620 actual voters from 79 provinces.
Source of basic data: May 14 Pulse Asia exit polls, www.abs-cbnnews.com
44.6
42.6
41.1
36.8
35.4
34.9
34.6
15.073
14.397
13.890
12.437
11.963
11.794
11.693
11.592
10.476
10.274
9.632
9.598
9.530
8.854
0.000
-1.115
-1.318
-1.960
-2.839
-2.061
-2.737
3.481
2.805
2.298
0.845
0.372
0.203
0.101
14.103
13.434
12.932
11.495
11.028
10.861
10.761
10.660
9.559
9.359
8.725
8.691
8.625
7.958
16.042
15.359
14.847
13.378
12.899
12.728
12.626
12.523
11.394
11.189
10.538
10.504
10.436
9.751
Point estimates and projected votes (in millions) with adding preferences for ‘Cayetano’
Candidate Coalition Percent Projected votes Additional votes
Legarda Escudero Villar Lacson Pangilinan Aquino Angara Cayetano Arroyo Trillanes Zubiri Honasan
Recto Pichay Pimentel Roco Defensor Sotto GO GO GO GO Ind GO TU GO TU GO TU Ind TU TU GO GO TU TU 58.5
53.3
49.8
46.4
44.6
42.6
41.1
38.0
36.8
35.4
34.9
34.6
34.3
30.4
28.5
28.4
28.2
26.2
19.770
18.013
16.830
15.681
15.073
14.397
13.890
12.842
12.437
11.963
11.794
11.693
11.592
10.274
9.632
9.598
9.530
8.854
+ 2.366
Difference from threshold
8.077
6.320
5.137
3.988
3.380
2.704
2.197
1.149
0.743
0.270
0.101
0.000
-0.101
-1.419
-2.061
-2.095
-2.163
-2.839
A Call to Political Engagement
A Need to Foster Trust in Democratic Process Elections and election administration Democratic institutions (parties and parliaments) Democratic processes (oversight and rule of law) A need to renew and reinvigorate civic engagement in politics (partisan and non-partisan) Defend, deepen, and widen the political space for effective participation Develop and support democratic leaders Nurture and strengthen constituencies as well as energize communities for sustained advocacy of political and social reform
Strengthening Political Parties
Develop parties based on principles, not persons Legal framework that provides incentives and disincentives Ensure transparency, accountability, and internal organizational democracy These reforms will: Attract sustained support from broad constituencies Secure adequate funding Develop capable mechanisms and machinery for public policy Build a cadre of credible leaders, candidates, professionals, and networks