Transcript Document

Future of Iran's Foreign Relations
An Analysis by Scenario Planning
Abbas Maleki
Center for Graduate International Studies
Tehran University
April 30, 2007
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What is Scenario?
-Engage in systematic conjecture
-Human beings are constantly writing
scenarios, interpreting signals in the
environment and reframing them into
meaningful images and trajectories in to
the future.
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The relations between possible,
probable and desired future
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What is not Scenario?
• Scenario is not a forecast, neither a vision
• It does not seek numerical precision.
It usually provides a more qualitative and
contextual description of how the present will
evolve in to the future.
• It is not assured.
Scenario analysis usually tries to identify a set of
possible future, each of whose occurrence is
plausible
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Scenarios versus Forecasts
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Crude Oil Rigs in US, (Prediction)
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Crude Oil Rigs in US, (Reality)
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Future is not continuation of the past necessarily
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Soft Power
Joseph Nye of Kennedy School of Government:
• “A country’s soft power can come from three
resources:
-Its culture (in places where it is attractive to
others),
-Its political values (when it lives up to them at
home and abroad), and
-Its foreign policies (when they are seen as
legitimate and having moral authority).
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History
• Iranians feel the world situation of Iran is
becoming weaker every day
• Therefore they must do something
• Iran’s society is reacting to the events in
unexpected times.
• It is reflected in
-Talbot Tobacco Agreement (1846),
-Constitution Revolution (1906),
-Islamic Revolution (1997),
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Decision making in
Iran’s Foreign Policy
Role of main decision makers as
• Leader
• President
• High National Security Council
• Parliament
• Cabinet
• Foreign Ministry
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Major Levels of
Iran’s Relations with Rest of World
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Bilateral relations
Multilateral Relations
Regional Relations
Relations with International Impacts
Relations with International Organizations
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Social Change
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Strength
70% are under age 30
Public ethics
Attitudes
Communication
• Weaknesses
• Lack of accountability
• Discretion among
generations
• Dissatisfaction to daily life
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Opportunities
Anxious to knowledge
Democratization process
Civil Society
Opening the country
• Challenges
• Gap Increase between
expectations and reality
• Religious and secular
values’ inconsistency
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Defense Policy
• Strength
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• 1 million troops
• Dual system of military •
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forces (Army and
Revolutionary Guard)
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• Self-sufficient in ordinary
weapons
• Weaknesses
• Lack of new sophisticated
armaments
• Skilled human shortage
Opportunities
Collapse of two major threats
SCO
Cooperation with third world
countries
• Threats
• Attack to Iran
• US military presence in
the region
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Economy
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Strength
70 m population
Oil & Gas
Other Minerals
Transit Routes
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Weaknesses
High Cash
High Inflation
Unemployment
Lack of FDI
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Opportunities
Neighbors markets
Asian energy thirsty
Globalization
Islamic developed
country
Challenges
US Sanctions, UN!!
Emerging new rivals
Far distance to
modernization
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Foreign Policy
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Strength
Geopolitics
15 Neighbors
Political System
Decision Making
• Weaknesses
• Delay in crafting
strategies
• Changes of
administration
• Duality in HNSC and FM
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Opportunities
Asian Identity
Regional appearance
International organizations
Dialogue among Civilizations
• Challenges
• US presence in
neighboring countries
• Disintegration of
neighboring countries
• Regional extremism
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What would be Iran after 20 Years?
Iran’s 20-Year Perspective Document
Says:
• The first country in the region at economic,
scientific and technology levels
• line of thinking, i.e. the prioritization of
becoming an “economic and technological
power” over other policy areas, is very
evident in Iran’s 20-Year Perspective
Document
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Iran’s Foreign Relations:
Conceptual Challenges to 2015
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Caspian legal regime
Persian Gulf States
Iraq
Afghanistan
Iran-US Relations
Iran-EU Relations
Nuclear File
Oil price
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Four Historic Compromises
• Iran, Soviet Russia Friendship Treaty,
1921
• Iran-UK MOU on situation of Abu Musa
Island in Persian Gulf, 1971
• Iran-Iraq Treaty on Friendship and
Governmental Borders, 1975
• Iran-Afghanistan Agreement on the portion
of Hirmand Waters, 1976
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The Common Sea of Iran and USSR
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A Giant’s Foot over Persian Gulf
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Arvand Roud Legal Regime
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Iran’s Natural Advantages
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Iran’s Foreign Relations:
Conceptual Challenges to 2010
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Caspian legal regime
Persian Gulf States
Iraq
Afghanistan
Iran-US Relations
Iran-EU Relations
Nuclear File
Oil price
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US military around Iran
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Nabucco Gas Pipeline
New gas supply route to
Europe from
Turkey to Austria
via Bulgaria, Romania and
Hungary
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Supply Sources for Nabucco
Azerbaidschan
10-14 bcm
Egypt
8-10 bcm
Iraq
Iran
10-20 bcm
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Uncertainties
on global trends to 2015
-Globalization: New World Order
(Disorder)
-The Oil price
-Global Environment
-War against Terrorism
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Key Uncertainties
• The will of Iranians for change
• Iran’s society is reacting to the events in
unexpected times
• Oil price is one of uncertain matter in the
destiny of Iran
• Levels of unemployment and inflation
• Bipartisan politics in Washington and
which party has the power
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Scope and Stakeholders
of Iran’s Scenarios:
• Time frame for Iran should be 2007 to 2015
• The major stakeholders, those who will have an
interest or will be affected, or could influence
Iran are
-Iran’s neighbors
-Industrial countries
-Developing countries
-Industrial niches
-Oil and gas companies
-Financial markets
• All of these partners are changing rapidly.
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Driving Forces
US behavior as great power with long hostile relations with
Iran
• Leadership
• Isolation
• Engagement
• Sticks and Carrots
• Sticks
• Military Attack
Aspiration of Iranian peoples
• Iran’s society is willing to have better life.
• Iranians are smart
• Eager to know more
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Basic Trends
• Globally, the main trends still is toward
assignment of national advantages.
• Economically, the major trend is shifting from the
West to the East, new emerging economies as
China, India and Russia.
• Technologically, US will be the leader and Iran
needs to have better relations with this country
• Socially, Iran’s culture believes Europe as great
partner as Dialogue of Civilization.
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Energy resource
periphery
Energy demand
heartland
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3 Scenarios for Iran’s Future
• Caspian Caviar
• Unripe Persimmon
• Juicy Watermelon
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Caspian Caviar
• A best-case scenario
• Both Iran and the international community taking a
moderate, pragmatic approach
• General opening up of the Iranian market to foreign
business, trade and investment
• Iran would be the most important country in the region.
• Iran should be part of GCC
• Signing Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) with
EU
• Compromise on Nuclear, Human Rights, Peace
Process…
• It is less probable to be happened
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Unripe Persimmon
• A worst-case scenario
• Rapid increase of political tensions on all sides
• Eventual closure of the market to foreign
business
• Ensuing geo-political and socio-economic
instability
• Nuclear stand-off ends by military attack and not
by talks.
• It will be a major victory for the hard line position.
• Europeans and Japanese chose to keep trading
and investing in Iran low level, this might allow
the economy to keep stumbling along as it is
without actually collapsing.
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Juicy Watermelon
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A pragmatic scenario
Tension is controlled
Relations with Russia, Chin and India will expand
Trade is flowing as FDI is running.
Iran’s industries’ needs to high technology are
provided
• Opportunities in the neighboring countries will be
met
• Dealing more with those countries which remember
Persian culture from the past as Central Asia,
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Caucasia, Persian Gulf and Afghanistan
Juicy Watermelon (2)
• The well skilled man power needs to find its
room in rich Arab countries.
• The investment in the niches like car
manufacturing, aluminum, telecommunication,
cement, steel, food industries, and tobacco
would be most profitable
• Investment in services as private banking,
insurance, health services, and media are
attractive
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Thank you
[email protected]
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