Transcript LED AND OLED: MARKET IMPACT

GLGi: LED and OLED Market Trends
President & Managing Member
Organic Lighting Technologies, LLC
Council Member Biography
Munisamy Anandan, Ph.D., is the President and Managing Member at
Organic Lighting Technologies LLC, an optical component
manufacturer. He specializes in market research, marketing, LCD
backlighting, and flat panel display technologies. He is experienced in
development of OLED backlight for cell phones, LED backlight, LCD
TV, CRT, SED, and desktop monitors. He is knowledgeable in market
and technology trends for the plasma, projection television market,
LCDs for desktop monitors, and OLEDs. He is experienced in the LCD,
Plasma, OLED, Flat fluorescent lamp, LCD backlighting, field emission
display markets and has established processes for mass manufacturing
for LCD, Plasma, OLED, Flat fluorescent lamp, and LCD backlighting .
He is a senior member of IEEE and the Society for Information Display.
Recently, he has delivered a "Key-Note Address" on 'LED backlight for
LCD' at International Display Research Conference in Moscow.
OLT© 2008 Gerson Lehrman Group Inc., All Rights Reserved
Topics
 Review of technology
 Penetration & growth forecasts
 Review of major players
OLT© 2008 Gerson Lehrman Group Inc., All Rights Reserved
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LED
2008 GLG SEMINAR
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Lumiled web site
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SOME BASICS
2008 GLG SEMINAR
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SOME BASICS
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JUNCTION TEMPERATURE:
CONSEQUENCES
Junction temperature beyond 60 C
•
•
•
•
Spectrum shifts and hence
chromaticity coordinates change.
Brightness and luminous efficiency
decreases
Life degrades.
Values differ for red LED compared to
blue and green
2008 GLG SEMINAR
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40 YEARS OF WORK ON LED
• EPITAXIAL LAYER
• ELECTRON-HOLE RECOMBINATION
• LIGHT GENERATION ACROSS JUNCTION
• LIGHT EXTRACTION
• PACKAGING
2008 GLG SEMINAR
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EFFICIENCY OF LEDs- Chip level
At Room Temperature
LED color
Peak λ
current
lm/w
White
N/A
20 mA
136
White
N/A
350 mA
115 (136 lm)
Red
625 nm
350 mA
60
Blue
450 nm
350 mA
10
Green
527 nm
350 mA
72
2008 GLG SEMINAR
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‘LUXEON REBEL’ LED (packaged)
LED Color
Peak λ
Red
627 nm
Lumin Flux
350 mA 700mA
40lm
85 lm
lm/w
(350 mA)
36
CRI
-----
Blue
470 nm
23 lm
48 lm
21.3
-----
Green
530 nm
80 lm
145 lm
72
100 lm
180 lm
84
----70
Neutral white (4100K)
80 lm
145 lm
67
75
Warm white
60 lm
110 lm
50
80
Cool white
(6500 K)
(3100K)
Retail price
-------------------Approx: €4.49 = US$6.6-----------------------Above characteristics measured at thermal pad temperature of 25 C
Life: 50,000 hrs at junction temperature of 110C for 350 mA drive.
Source: Lumiled web site
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SUBSTRATE FOR GaN
Sapphire substrate Manufacturers
•
Crystal Gmbh, Berlin – 1”, 2” and 3” wafers
•
Rubicon – up to 4” and also 6”
•
Marketech International, Washington state
•
Valley Design corp, Santa Cruz, CA and Shireley,
MA- procures raw material and polishes-up to 8”
•
Semiconductor Wafer, Inc. - 4” available
•
Epistone comp-semi material, Freemont, CA- 4”
wafer
•
Red Optronics-Distributor of 4” Boule crystal rod
•
Roditi International-Distributor-3”
•
Kyocera
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SUBSTRATE FOR GaN
SiC wafers
• Cree
• Dow Corning
• Toshiba
• Caracal
• Norstel-Swedish
• 15 competing companies for SiC. 75%
market share for Cree.
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SUBSTRATE FOR GaN
GaN wafer
•
•
•
Sumitomo Electric – 2” wafer
Panasonic
Marubeni, Santa Clara-GaN on
sapphire-2”
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APPLICATIONS OF LED
ILLUMINATION
AUTOMOTIVE
SIGNS & DISPLAYS
MOBILE
TRAFFIC SIGNALS
LCD BACKLIGHT
OTHERS
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ILLUMINATION: 2008 NEW YEAR BALL
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Lumiled web site
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ILLUMINATION….Contd
2008 GLG SEMINAR
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LED Magazine
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INTERIOR STRUCTURE OF ‘NEW YEAR BALL’
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Lumiled web site
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ILLUMINATION
-
LED Magazine
2008 GLG SEMINAR
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ILLUMINATION….Contd
LED Magazine
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ILLUMINATION….Contd
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LED Magazine
ILLUMINATION….Contd
-
Refrigerated
show case
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GE Web site
ILLUMINATION….Contd
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LED Magazine
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ILLUMINATION….Contd
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LED Magazine
GIANT SCREEN DISPLAY
1,750,272 LEDs
55’ x 134’
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Daktronics Web site-Longhorn
stadium, University of Texas
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GIANT SCREEN DISPLAY
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LED Magazine-
3rd
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Ring Road, Beijing-Barco
GIANT SCREEN DISPLAY
Daktronics web site-Dolphin’s stadium
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GIANT SCREEN DISPLAY
2008 GLG SEMINAR
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LED Magazine-Daktronics Time Square
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ILLUMINATION….Contd
2008 GLG SEMINAR
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LED
Magazine-Toronto Tower-Cree 31
ILLUMINATION….Contd
2008 GLG SEMINAR
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LED Magazine
-Street Lighting-Toronto
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AUTOMOTIVE-HEAD LAMP
2008 GLG SEMINAR
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LED Magazine
LED HEAD LAMP
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Hella web site
LCD TV LIT BY LED BACKLIGHT
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BACKLIGHT MARKET
9.2 B LEDs by 2010
Developed from:
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.
4%
Market pnetration
PENETRATION OF ‘LED BACKLIGHT
3%
Notebook PC
LCD TV
LCD Monitor
Other Appln
2%
1%
Q406
Q107 Q207
Q307 Q407
Q108
Q208 Q308
Jennifer Colgrove-SID OLT
Display Applications confce, 2007
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GLOBAL MARKET FORECAST FOR ‘HB LEDs’
10,000
. 9,000
Latest: in 2010, $10.6B
8,000
7,000
($M)
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
2007
2008 GLG SEMINAR
2008
2009
OLT
2010
2011
Developed form-Source: Strategies
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in Light ‘07
SIGNS AND DISPLAYS
. 3500
3403
3000
2500
($M)
2339
2000
1500
1000
1489
1170
851
500
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Developed from -Source: Strategies in Light ‘07
2008 GLG SEMINAR
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1000
GENERAL ILLUMINATION
.
875
800
612
($M)
600
461
400
322
200
2007
2008 GLG SEMINAR
2008
2009
2010
Developed from-Source: Strategies in Light ‘07
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PRICE BARRIER FOR LED
Lamp
Lumin Flux
Power
Price
Incand
655 lm
65 W
$3
CFL
750 lm
15 W
$4
LED
680 lm
17 W
$100
Developed from -Strategies in Light 2007
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COST CUTTING MEASURES
• SUBSTANTIAL PROGRESS IN EFFICIENCY
REQUIRES LESS NUMBER OF LEDsEXAMPLE CELL PHONE
• 6” WAFER COMING IN TO MANUFACTURING
LINE
• GLASS WAFERS BEING EXPLORED
• MARKET PRESSURE
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MAJOR PLAYERS AND LICENSES
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OLED
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OLED: MAJOR PLAYERS
.
Kodak (small
Molecule)
1. Pioneer
2CMEL
3Samsung SDI
4Samsung SEC
5Toppoly
6CPT
7LG Philips
8Tohoku
Devices
9Fujitsu Electric
Holding
1Univision Tech
Inc., Taiwan
1Orion OLED
Co., Korea
2008 GLG SEMINAR
UDC
(Phosphorescent)
1. Pioneer –
2. Mitsubishi
Chemicals
3 Samsung
SDI(LTPS)
4 Samsung
Electronics (40” aSi AMOLED)
5 Sony
6 Epson
7 Toyota Industries
8 Olight
9 AUO
10.CMEL
11.LG Philips
12. Konica-Minota
OLT
Sumitomo
Chemical -CDT
(Polymer)
Micro-emissive displays
(MED)
2Delta OptroelectronicsMP3
3Cyclotech AMT-Pain
relief device
4Philips-shaver
5Dai Nippon-Epson demo
40”
6Samsung SEC
7Sharp
8Toppon Printing
9National University of
Singapore
1CDT/Litrex/ULVAC
114” at CDT(a-Si)
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OLED REVENUE FORECAST
OLED Type 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
(Developed From:OLED Summit 2006)
PM
$528M 650M
700M
745M
--
--
--
AM OLED
$675M 1.95B 3.25B 3.95B --
--
--
(iSupply-December 2007)
OLED TV
$2M
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$2M
$10M
$50M
OLT
$200M $600M $1.4B
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OLED SHIPMENT FORECAST
OLED Type 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
(Developed From:OLED Summit 2006)
PM OLED
AM OLED
88M
31M
113M 135M 158M -99M 184M 215M --
---
---
(iSupply –Dec 2007)
OLED TV
2008 GLG SEMINAR
3K
3K
50K
100K 250K 1.2M 2.8M
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2’ X 2’ ORGANIC WHITE PANEL
LIGHTING
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Duggal et.al: SID-06 Digest
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OLED TECHNICAL BARRIERS
• Image burn-in (Image sticking)
• Long Life reported only in labs and in test samples
and not established in manufactured product
• Life ages faster than other colors
• Long delays in promised product introduction
• Some companies closed due to technical barriers
• Major Backplane problem (a-Si TFT vs LTPS TFT
2008 GLG SEMINAR
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AM OLED: a-Si TFT vs LTPS TFT
Parameter
a-Si TFT
LTPS TFT
Mobility
Low, high power
poor apert ratio
high, integ
Integ driver easy
Uniformity
Good
Vth. Variation-compen
Stability
Vth. Shifts
Good
Large display
Mfg
OK (Gen 7)
Problem with Gen 4
Mask step
4 or 5
6 or 7
Manufacturability
Excellent
Maturing
TFT for OLED is still a manufacturing problem
2008 GLG SEMINAR
KyuhaOLT
Chung et.al- ID Magazine 2/2006
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KONICA MINOLTA ‘OLED’ LAMP
Efficiency: 64 lm/w
2008 GLG SEMINAR
OLT OLED-info.com;
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also various sources.
40” OLED PROTOTYPE (SAMSUNG)
2008 GLG SEMINAR
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Info-OLED.com-web site
COMMERCIAL 11” ‘OLED TV’-SONY
2008 GLG SEMINARRobert Jan Visser:SID-Display
OLT Applications Conference
2007
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CHARACTERISTICS OF SONY 11” OLED TV
(PERSONAL)
• Thickness: 3 mm
• Contrast: 1:1,000,000 (LCD-1:17,000)
• Color gamut: 108% NTSC in u’v’plane
• Pixel: 960 x 540
• Life: 30,000 hrs
• Brightness-not given
• Power consumption: 45 W
• Cost: $1800
2008 GLG SEMINAR
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INK-JET PRINTED 13” POLYMER OLED TV
2008 GLG SEMINAR
FPM Budzelaar et.al-Journal of SID, 14/15, 2006
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BENDABLE ‘OLED’
2008 GLG SEMINARRobert Jan Visser:SID-Display
OLT Applications Conference
2007
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FLEXIBLE ‘OLED’
2008 GLG SEMINAR
Robert Jan Visser:SID-Display
Applications Conference 2007
OLT
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OUTLOOK FOR LED AND OLED
LED:
• MARKET POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTING AND
BACKLIGHTING IS BRIGHT
• TECHNICALLY SUPERIOR
• PENENTRATION BARRIER IS ‘PRICE’
OLED:
• TECHNOLOGY BARRIER AND PRICE BARRIER
EXIST
• PRESSURE FROM LCD IS HUGE
• TEST MARKETING FOR OLED TV JUST STARTED
• MANUFACTURING IS YET TO MATURE
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Appendix
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LIGHT ‘TRAPPING’
LED Magazine, Aug. 2006
2008 GLG SEMINAR
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NOVEL LED STRUCTURE ----Contd
2008 GLG SEMINAR
Developed from Lumiled/Philips-Flip chip
assembly – OLT
Strategies in Light 2007
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FAMOUS BLUE LED
Naoki Shibata- Asia Display/IDW ’01, Proceedings of 21st IDRC /8th International
display workshop,- pp. 1036-1038, Oct. 16-19, 2001, Nagoya, Japan.
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CONSEQUENCES OF JUNCTION
TEMPERATURE
Φ (T2) = Φ (T1). Є- k∆T,
Φ (T2) is the luminous flux at junction
temperature T2,
Φ (T1) is the luminous flux at junction
temperature T1,
k is temperature coefficient and ∆T is the
change in junction temperature.
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CONSEQUENCES OF JUNCTION
TEMPERATURE
λ d (T jf) = λ d (Tji) + ∆Tj . 0.1 (nm / 0C)
λ d Dominant wavelength
Tjf the new junction temperature,
Tji is the initial junction temperature
and ∆Tj is the change in junction temperature.
In other words for every 10 C raise in junction
temperature there is a change of 1 nm in
dominant wavelength λ d.
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CONSEQUENCES OF JUNCTION
TEMPERATURE…Contd
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LED Magazine
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Cost vs performance
2008 GLG SEMINAR
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Lumiled web site
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KEY WHITE LED PATENT
(US Patent# 5,998,925 by Nichia)
A light emitting device, comprising a light
emitting…… …component comprises a nitride
compound semiconductor:
Ini Gaj Alk N; (i+j+k = 1)
at least one element selected from the group consisting
of Y, Lu, Se, La, Gd and Sm, and 2) at least one
element selected from the group consisting of Al, Ga
and In, and being activated with cerium.
YAG: Ce
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REMOTE PLASMA ‘CVD’ ON GLASS WAFER
Developed fromBluglass web site
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REMOTE PLASMA CVD-Bluglass Company)
•Lower growth temperatures < 700C
•Low cost substrates (Glass)
•Thinner devices (0.5 μm LED layer)
•No Ammonia
•Lower material consumption
•Large area deposition easily scalable (6”, 8”)
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GaN: GLASS WAFER
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Developed fromBluglass web site 70
COMPARISON OF SPECTRUM
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Developed fromBluglass web site 71
GLASS WAFER: LIGHT EMISSION
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Bluglass web site
TWO LAYER WHITE ‘OLED’
Light
Luminance at 5V : 17000 cd/m2
Luminous efficiency at100 cd/m2 : 15 lm/w Yasuhisa Kishigami et.alAsia Display/IDW’01, Japan
CIE
: SEMINAR
x = 0.3; y = 0.38
2008
GLG
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THREE ‘OLEDS’ IN SERIES
Toshio Matsumoto
et.al- SID’ 03 Digest
2008 GLG SEMINAR
Luminance
Current density
Operating voltage
Quantum efficiency
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:10,000 cd/m2
:7.5 mA/cm2
:40 V
:75 cd/A
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TYPICAL ‘OLED’ LAYERS
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