Transcript Diapositive 1

East & South African Container Markets: Trends and Consequences
for Port Authorities & Inland Corridor Services
Dr. YANN ALIX
General Delegate
SEFACIL Foundation
Le Havre – France
© SEFACIL 2011
PMAESA Conference 2011
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Content of the Presentation
Introduction : Who are we ?
PART 1
• The liners’ strategies effects on Regional Port competition
PART II
• From Milk Run Services to Hub… to Hub and Spoke
services : what gonna change for Port Authorities
PART III
• Global Terminal Operators & Global Logistics Integrators
perspectives
Discussion
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The SEFACIL Foundation :
A unique international think-tank
around strategic & prospective analysis on Port, Maritime & Logistics
Polarizing the knowledge and the intelligences
on Port/Maritime/Logistics by teaming-up
an International Applied Research Programme
Creation of innovative products
on Africa-China-Europe developments
thanks to the support of the biggest private enterprises
as well as national and international public bodies and institutions
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Source : WorldMapper 2011
Shipping containers
handled in Ports
by Country in 2008
(prior to the global crisis)
18 000 000
16 000 000
14 000 000
12 000 000
10 000 000
6 000 000
2 000 000
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Gatew ay
Transhipment
Source : DREWRY Consultants
4 000 000
80
(prior to the global crisis)
8 000 000
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Shipping containers
handled in Africa
1980 - 2008
Eastern & Southern Countries & major ports
Market coverage
UGANDA
KENYA
RWANDA
Mombasa
BURUNDI
Dr. Yann ALIX
& Jean-François PELLETIER
Nov 2011
TANZANIA
Dar-es-Salaam
SEYCHELLES
ZAMBIA
ZIMBABWE
MALAWI
Beira
BOTSWANA
MADAGASCAR
MAURITIUS
Port Louis
Port Reunion
Maputo
SOUTH
AFRICA
Cape Town
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Toamasina
MOZAMBIQUE
NAMIBIA
Walvis
Bay
Nacala
COMOROS
REUNION
Durban
East London
Ngqura
Port Elizabeth
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Shipping Lines Connectivity
& Capacity deployed on Eastern & Southern Ports
Source : Dynamar 2011, Drewry 2011, Containerisation International 2011, Alphaliner 2011
Situation reported Sept 2011
3,800,000
Teu’s Trade Capacity
350
Vessels
50
Weekly
services
20 Ports
weekly
called
Dr. Yann ALIX
Nov 2011
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Regional Market Coverage
Source : Dynamar 2011, Drewry 2011, Containerisation International 2011, Alphaliner 2011
(Number of TEU’s by main players & allocated TEU’s capacity deployed on ports by countries)
Situation reported Sept 2011
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SOUTH AFRICA
KENYA
MAERSK LINE
TANZANIA
MSC
NAMIBIA
CMA-CGM
MAURITIUS
OTHERS
10 %
20 %
MOZAMBIQUE
30 %
Dr. Yann ALIX
Nov 2011
10 %
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20 %
30 %
40 %
50 %
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Annual Trade Capacity deployed by Major areas of markets
Situation reported Sept 2011
Source : Dynamar 2011, Drewry 2011, Containerisation International 2011,
Alphaliner 2011, Port Authorities
Europe
& Med
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Far East
Asia
Africa
North
America
In TEU’s
MidEast
& India
Southern,
Eastern
& Indian Ocean
Markets
100,000
500,000
250,000
1,000,000
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Nov 2011
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Port Throughputs by main range
(including Durban – 2010 in TEU’s)
From Kenya to Mozambique
Namibia
Indian Ocean
75% of the TEU’s handled
in Eastern/Southern Africa
are concentrated on
South African Ports
2,000,000 TEU’s
1,000,000 TEU’s
500,000 TEU’s
Dr. Yann ALIX
Nov 2011
South Africa
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Major Port throughputs (except Durban)
Walvis Bay
Cape Town
Port Elizabeth
Ngqura
East London
Port Réunion
Port Louis
Toamasina
Nacala
Beira
Maputo
Dar Es Salaam
Source : Dynamar 2011, Containerisation International 2011, Port Authorities
Mombasa
(Minimum of 30,000 TEU’s/yr)
600,000
400,000
200,000
2006
Dr. Yann ALIX
Nov 2011
2010
100,000
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Landlocked
markets
SouthEast
Range
SouthWest
Range
Sketch on Ports configuration - Yesterday !
South-African
Range
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National Port Gateway
& hinterland
• Milk Run System with
« national single port gateway »
serving mainly « domestic markets »
• Cross-trading liner system based on
interlinking Regional & Intercontinental
loops
• Feedering network not enough reliable
(size of the markets, productivity
of handling activities, terminal costs
for thanshipments, dwell time for
small ships, etc.)
• Economies of scale not sufficient
• Lack of Regional Customs facilitation &
integration
• Very few transnational freight railway
opportunities
• Few paved roads connecting gateway
• Very few Logistic value added services
on Imp/Exp products
(FTZ & services added)
Transcontinental direct call services
Inland boundaries
National direct call services
Regional Hub
Regional feedering services
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Nov 2011
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Sketch on Ports configuration - tomorrow ?
Toward a new subregional
Port hierarchy based on :
Landlocked
markets
SouthEast
Range
SouthWest
Range
• Forecasted increase of Imp/Exp volumes
• New generation of motherships
(6,000 and +) & feederships (1500 and +)
• Hub & Spoke opportunities
• Improvment of Terminal global
performances
• Trades imbalances & empty strategic
management
• Regional Port Reform
& GTO investments
• Inland investments &
Multimodal Corridors solutions
• Overlapping of hinterland coverage
& competitiveness to control
landlocked markets stimulated
South-African
Range
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National Port Gateway
& hinterland
Transcontinental direct call services
National direct call services
Inland boundaries
Regional feedering services
Regional Hub
Hub & Spoke terminal
Dr. Yann ALIX
Nov 2011
Inland multimodal corridors
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The Shipping Lines’ perspective
New Services design & port calls hierarchy based on :
• The market-related factors because PMAESA Ports are not really at the crossroads of
major intercontinental trades flows even if Durban acts as a « regional hub »
(as for Western Med, Carribean Seas or South-East Asia)
• « Undirect » coverage with Hub & Spoke solutions Vs Direct access to hinterland
(Savings based on the availablity of cargo (regularity & reliability) + terminal productivity +
Economies of scale by shortcut routes & services thanks to bigger ships deployment, etc…)
• The Transhipment port Location (Geographical factors & Overall Cost Model including
feedering & hinterland dimension)
• The number of calls Vs the order of the calls Vs the hierarchy of the calls
• Roundtrip
voyage time per ship and per loop
Vs
of ships allocated per service to assume weekly coverage
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Frequency
Vs
the number
Dr. Yann ALIX
Nov 2011
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Global Terminal Operators’ perspective
Future Regional Terminal Rivalry
• GTO (HPH, DPW, APMT and so on) are not so much involved
into ports’development in the PMAESA BUT….
• They are looking for being the first movers in your
terminal/port expansion due to the regional economic growth
perspective… (lack of Port infrastructure to accomodate the
forecasted growth despite the Word crisis …)
• They closely watch how Shipping Lines are reconsidering
PMAESA market coverage
Dr. Yann ALIX
Nov 2011
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Global Terminal Operators’ perspective
Source : Notteboom & Rodrigue 2011
Dr. Yann ALIX
Nov 2011
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Global Logistics Integrator’s perspective
New Inland Corridor logistics services competition
• TBL proposed by Logistics Integrators to have a better control on the
• Inland/Landlocked Door-to- African Port Gateway
• African Port Gateway-to-Inland/landlocked Door multimodal services
The Through B/L service
The Through B/L service includes the costs of terminal handling and the
oncarriage of containers from alongside ship to place of delivery.
• The service also includes the charges for detention, demurrage, container
rental up to final destination.
• The exchange of the original B/L and the control of the container seal
number are made at destination by our SDV agent to guarantee the safety of
your goods
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SL, GTO & GLI’s perspective
TOWARD NEW MODELS OF GOVERNANCE TO ENCOURAGE PPP
& PRIVATE INTERESTS TO FUEL THE FUTURE PORT & LOGISTICS REGIONAL GROWTH
100
80
Estimated end of 2010
60
40
20
0
World 2003
World 2007
Africa 2003
Africa 2007
Dr. Yann ALIX
Nov 2011
Global
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State
Source : DREWRY Consultants
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MERCI BEAUCOUP !
THANKS A LOT !
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