Transcript 公共财政学 Public Finance

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NTA Workshop I
NUPRI, Tokyo, Japan
National Transfer Account
National Transfer Account
China
Qiulin CHEN 陈秋霖
CCER, Peking University
Beijing, China
October 27, 2005
Description
• Rural NTA -- Only rural individual
survey data now
National Transfer Account
– Household survey from the Department of
Agriculture
– Annually statistic data: Statistic Yearbook,
and other special yearbook
– Population census data (aggregate)
• Has to combine the individual and
household data
– Has not cleaned it well. Should be more
careful
• Household expenditure/income data
– Can not reach some results required
A Practice -- Preparation for the research
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3
• Some results
National Transfer Account
• The great curve
• NTA Table
What we have?
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Lifecycle Deficit
Labor Income
• About the Labor income
25000
20000
– Lowess the sum or
sum those have been
lowessed
15000
10000
85
81
77
73
69
65
61
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
89
85
81
77
73
69
65
61
57
53
49
45
41
37
33
29
25
21
0
17
57
53
49
45
41
37
89
Total labor income
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•
1.2.1 earnings
Income from labor working for a factory or
government
1.2.2 benefits
no benefit data in this survey
1.2.3 self-employment labor income
Farmers are regarded as self-employment and
2/3 of their income is calculated as labor
earnings
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•
Total Labor Income 2
5
•
enterorise labor income
1
Wage income
33
29
25
21
17
13
9
5
0
1
National Transfer Account
5000
Lifecycle Deficit
Wage income (estimated)
12000.00
• About the wage
10000.00
8000.00
4000.00
2000.00
88
85
82
79
76
73
70
67
64
61
58
55
52
49
46
43
40
37
34
31
28
25
22
19
16
13
7
10
4
1
0.00
wage by average
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
89
85
81
77
73
69
65
61
57
53
49
45
41
37
33
29
25
21
17
13
9
5
0
1
National Transfer Account
6000.00
– The young have more labor
earning because many young
rural people work outside the
village, which is an important
reason of “China Price”.
– Something may be wrong
with the older group.
– Use estimation to deal with
the wage because have no
individual wage
– Using average of wage in an
family will got another result.
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Lifecycle Deficit
Consumption
1.1.2 Private consumption
5000
4500
Only have total
household consumption data, so
just deal with them by the
estimation on the other
consumption.
4000
3500
3000
private consumption
public consumption
89
85
81
77
73
69
65
61
57
53
49
45
41
37
33
29
25
21
17
13
9
5
500
0
1
National Transfer Account
2500
2000
1500
1000
No estimation of health
and education expenditureH
–Education
–Health
–Others
Total Consumption
1.1.1
Public consumption
Use the structure of Government Budgetary Expenditure to estimate the government consumption
expenditure (in the national account)
–
1.1.1.1 Education
Distribute the total education expenditure by the budgetary expenditure of school at different level.
Estimate the student number at different level by age ( using the enrollment at different level by age
from the census data)
–
1.1.1.2 Health
Per capita (because it is public health expenditure)
–
1.1.1.3 Others
Per public
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Asset Reallocation
Income on private capital and Credit inflow
9000
8000
7000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
income from fixed capital
•
•
capital income (1/3)
borrow from the bank
2.2 Private Asset Reallocations
2.2.1.1 Private capital inflow
– Inflow: income from the capital and borrow from the bank
– Banks lend most money for production in rural China
89
85
81
77
73
69
65
61
57
53
49
45
41
37
33
29
25
21
17
13
9
5
0
1
National Transfer Account
6000
other borrow
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Asset Reallocation
Private Investment
12000
10000
National Transfer Account
8000
6000
4000
2000
operational investment
•
Onflow: operational investment, bond and saving, interest payed
Banks lend most money for production in rural China
Land is owned by the government, the privatization is a hot topic now.
2.2.3 Credit
–
inflow
89
85
81
77
73
65
61
57
53
49
69
interest
2.2.2 Private land
–
•
bond and saving
2.2.1.2 Private capital onflow
–
–
•
45
41
37
33
29
25
21
17
13
9
5
1
0
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Asset Reallocation
Public saving
•
89
85
81
77
73
69
65
61
57
53
49
45
41
37
33
29
25
21
17
13
9
5
National Transfer Account
1500
1000
500
0
-500
-1000
-1500
-2000
-2500
-3000
-3500
-4000
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Public saving and Public transfer
Public Transfer
2.1 Public Asset Reallocations
– Because of the data restriction, we use the public capital income as residual and
calculate the public saving.
– Public saving is the net government debt (both domestic and foreign)= new debt –
pay for interest and principle
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3.1 Public Transfers
– Inflow:No cash inflow, only government expenditure.
– Outflow:tax are distribute according their related payers
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Transfers
Inter-house transfer
600
500
300
200
100
89
85
81
77
73
69
65
61
57
53
49
45
41
37
33
29
25
21
17
13
9
5
0
1
National Transfer Account
400
• 3.2 Private Transfers
– Intra-house transfer: can not estimate now. Need
household health/education/ other expenditure share
– inter house transfer: support from relatives outside the
family
The Great Cure of China
－individual
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The great curve now looks not very great! ?
25000
15000
Consumption
Labor Income
10000
5000
• Why the older has no deficit of surplus?
– Check carefully the consistency of the data
– The estimation method
• household total consumption
• Wage earning may be overvalued
90+
85
75
80
70
65
55
60
50
45
40
30
35
25
20
10
15
5
0
0
National Transfer Account
20000
NTA table of Rural China
－aggregate
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National Transfer Account
Table 1. National Transfer Flow Account, country, year (currency and units), aggregate, nominal
Total
0~9
10~19
20~29
30~39
40~49
50~59
60~69
70~79
80~89
90+
Lifecycle Deficit
(60330.34)
2940.82
1452.51 (13778.51) (23586.75) (14571.17) (9062.43) (3252.29)
(470.96)
(3.52)
1.94
Consumption
31454.92
2964.01
5623.66
5110.31
5790.18
4870.12
3329.88
2187.21
1251.39 307.90
20.25
Public
9057.45
1358.59
2221.18
1370.17
1488.33
1024.41
725.30
502.49
284.52
76.27
6.19
Private
22397.47
1605.42
3402.48
3740.14
4301.85
3845.72
2604.58
1684.72
966.87 231.62
14.06
Less: Labor income
91785.27
23.19
4171.15
18888.82
29376.94
19441.29
12392.31
5439.50
1722.35 311.41
18.32
Reallocations
Asset Reallocations
(51509.47)
1842.47
371.34 (11741.11) (19339.62) (11852.18) (7493.00) (2811.52)
(471.80) (14.23)
0.18
Public
(42490.77)
1849.12
(277.62) (15298.65) (26200.33) (10139.80)
897.66
3509.45
2632.91 505.00
31.49
Income on Assets
(38505.34)
2422.29
487.65 (14717.45) (25486.04) (9611.21)
1271.92
3768.73
2779.72 544.36
34.69
Less: Public Saving
3985.43
573.18
765.28
581.20
714.29
528.59
374.25
259.28
146.81
39.36
3.19
Private
(9018.70)
(6.65)
648.96
3557.54
6860.71
(1712.38) (8390.66) (6320.97) (3104.70) (519.23) (31.32)
Income on Assets
30446.59
5.20
653.49
3860.71
10504.98
8353.71
4803.49
1764.78
459.46
40.77
0.00
Less: Private Saving
39465.29
11.85
4.53
303.17
3644.28
10066.09
13194.15
8085.75
3564.16 560.00
31.32
Transfers
(8820.88)
1098.35
1081.17
(2037.40) (4247.13) (2718.99) (1569.43)
(440.77)
0.84
10.71
1.76
Public
(9846.19)
1098.35
1081.06
(2056.43) (4377.28) (2977.19) (1803.57)
(675.94)
(133.93)
(3.01)
1.76
Private
1025.31
0.00
0.11
19.03
130.15
258.20
234.15
235.17
134.77
13.72
0.00
Intervivos
Bequests
• Only aggregate the rural data (rural population)
• Population distribution: Use the current total population (2002)
distributed by the population census data (2000)
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研
• About definition
National Transfer Account
• About methodology
• About data
Problems
National Transfer Account formula
Consumption
Income
National Transfer Account
Lifecycle Deficit
Income
Investment
Asset Reallocation
Inflow
Transfers
Outflow
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What’s going on?
•
National Transfer Account
•
•
Access of proper database
–
Population census data
–
Expenditure survey data
–
Health service data
Adjusting statistical items to NTA account
–
As a transitional country, there is a lot of
policy and institutional factors
–
As a big country, the difference among area may
affect the consistency
Theoretical discussion
–
•
Lifecycle transfers in Marco-econ Model
Method development
– Other way to solve coming problems
Welcome to
CHINA
Peking Univ.
National Transfer Account
CCER
谢
Tha
nks
谢
Thanks!
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