Transcript Demographics Presentation ( Pastor ) - PFC - 9-18-13 - CAL

PARKS FORWARD:
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE IN THE GOLDEN STATE
September 2013
MANUEL PASTOR, MIRABAI AUER, JARED SANCHEZ
A Leveling Off: Immigrant Share of Total Population
California, Los Angeles, and the U.S.
50%
Los Angeles
40%
30%
California
20%
United States
10%
0%
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
North Dakota
South Dakota
Wyoming
Kentucky
Alabama
Nebraska
Indiana
Mississippi
Tennessee
Iowa
Missouri
Louisiana
Oklahoma
Minnesota
District of Columbia
Delaware
Arkansas
South Carolina
Kansas
North Carolina
Ohio
West Virginia
Georgia
Virginia
Maryland
Wisconsin
Colorado
Utah
Pennsylvania
Massachusetts
Montana
Washington
Alaska
Idaho
Oregon
Texas
Michigan
Connecticut
New Jersey
New Hampshire
Florida
New Mexico
Illinois
New York
Nevada
Hawaii
Rhode Island
Arizona
Maine
Vermont
California
Percent of Immigrant Population in U.S. Since 1999
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Percent Foreign-born by Length of Time in U.S. by State
30%
CA
Percent Share of State That is Foreign-Born
25%
NY
NJ
20%
FL
NV
HI
TX
MA
15%
DC
MD
IL
RI
AZ
WA CT
VA
10%
GA
UT
DE
NE
5%
SD
ND
NC
MN KS
WY KY
AK
MS
ID MI
NH
PA
OK
SC
INTN
AR
IAMO
LA
AL
NM
OR
CO
OH
WI
ME
VT
MT
WV
0%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
Percent Immigrants Arrived Before 2000
65%
70%
75%
U.S. Change in Youth (<18) Population by Race/Ethnicity, 2000-2010
4,788,632
White
Black
-248,081
-4,310,525
Latino
781,946
875,683
API
Other
Age by Sex, California, 2005-09
85 years and over
80 to 84 years
75 to 79 years
70 to 74 years
65 to 69 years
60 to 64 years
55 to 59 years
50 to 54 years
45 to 49 years
40 to 44 years
Male
35 to 39 years
Female
30 to 34 years
25 to 29 years
20 to 24 years
15 to 19 years
10 to 14 years
5 to 9 years
Under 5 years
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Source: PERE analysis of 2005-2009 ACS data, at the block group level.
Prepared by USC PERE | August 2013 | 20
Age by Sex, South Kern BHC Site, 2005-09
85 years and over
80 to 84 years
75 to 79 years
70 to 74 years
65 to 69 years
60 to 64 years
55 to 59 years
50 to 54 years
45 to 49 years
40 to 44 years
Male
35 to 39 years
Female
30 to 34 years
25 to 29 years
20 to 24 years
15 to 19 years
10 to 14 years
5 to 9 years
Under 5 years
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
Source:
PERE analysis
2005-2009
data, at the block group level.
Prepared
by of
USC
PERE ACS
| April
23, 2013 | 21
2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Age by Sex, Fresno BHC Site, 2005-09
85 years and over
80 to 84 years
75 to 79 years
70 to 74 years
65 to 69 years
60 to 64 years
55 to 59 years
50 to 54 years
45 to 49 years
40 to 44 years
Male
35 to 39 years
Female
30 to 34 years
25 to 29 years
20 to 24 years
15 to 19 years
10 to 14 years
5 to 9 years
Under 5 years
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Source: PERE analysis of 2005-2009 ACS data, at the block group level.
Prepared by USC PERE | April 23, 2013 | 22
Age by Sex, Coachella Valley BHC Site, 2005-09
85 years and over
80 to 84 years
75 to 79 years
70 to 74 years
65 to 69 years
60 to 64 years
55 to 59 years
50 to 54 years
45 to 49 years
40 to 44 years
Male
35 to 39 years
Female
30 to 34 years
25 to 29 years
20 to 24 years
15 to 19 years
10 to 14 years
5 to 9 years
Under 5 years
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Source: PERE analysis of 2005-2009 ACS data, at the block group level.
Prepared by USC PERE | April 23, 2013 | 23
Age by Sex, Boyle Heights BHC Site, 2005-09
85 years and over
80 to 84 years
75 to 79 years
70 to 74 years
65 to 69 years
60 to 64 years
55 to 59 years
50 to 54 years
45 to 49 years
40 to 44 years
Male
35 to 39 years
Female
30 to 34 years
25 to 29 years
20 to 24 years
15 to 19 years
10 to 14 years
5 to 9 years
Under 5 years
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Source: PERE analysis of 2005-2009 ACS data, at the block group level.
Prepared by USC PERE | March 19, 2013 | 24
Age by Sex, East Oakland BHC Site, 2005-09
85 years and over
80 to 84 years
75 to 79 years
70 to 74 years
65 to 69 years
60 to 64 years
55 to 59 years
50 to 54 years
45 to 49 years
40 to 44 years
Male
35 to 39 years
Female
30 to 34 years
25 to 29 years
20 to 24 years
15 to 19 years
10 to 14 years
5 to 9 years
Under 5 years
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Source: PERE analysis of 2005-2009 ACS data, at the block group level.
Prepared by USC PERE | March 19, 2013 | 25
Age by Sex, Richmond BHC Site, 2005-09
85 years and over
80 to 84 years
75 to 79 years
70 to 74 years
65 to 69 years
60 to 64 years
55 to 59 years
50 to 54 years
45 to 49 years
40 to 44 years
Male
35 to 39 years
Female
30 to 34 years
25 to 29 years
20 to 24 years
15 to 19 years
10 to 14 years
5 to 9 years
Under 5 years
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Source: PERE analysis of 2005-2009 ACS data, at the block group level.
Prepared by USC PERE | March 19, 2013 | 26
Age by Sex, City Heights BHC Site, 2005-09
85 years and over
80 to 84 years
75 to 79 years
70 to 74 years
65 to 69 years
60 to 64 years
55 to 59 years
50 to 54 years
45 to 49 years
40 to 44 years
Male
35 to 39 years
Female
30 to 34 years
25 to 29 years
20 to 24 years
15 to 19 years
10 to 14 years
5 to 9 years
Under 5 years
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Source: PERE analysis of 2005-2009 ACS data, at the block group level.
Prepared by USC PERE | March 19, 2013 | 27
WE USED TO BE OPPORUTNITY-RICH . . .
Gini Index by State
0.52
0.50
0.48
(2007-2009)
Once considered a land of
opportunity, California is now one of
the most unequal states in the U.S.
0.46
0.44
0.42
0.40
Alaska
Utah
New Hampshire
Hawaii
Iowa
Wisconsin
Wyoming
Vermont
Idaho
Nebraska
Nevada
Indiana
Maine
South Dakota
Delaware
Minnesota
Washington
Montana
Maryland
Kansas
Oregon
North Dakota
Ohio
Missouri
Michigan
Arizona
Colorado
West Virginia
Virginia
Rhode Island
Pennsylvania
Oklahoma
New Mexico
Arkansas
South Carolina
North Carolina
New Jersey
Kentucky
Massachusetts
Illinois
Georgia
Alabama
Tennessee
California
Florida
Texas
Mississippi
Louisiana
Connecticut
New York
Note: The Gini coefficient is a measure of income inequality. A zero coefficient implies that all households in a state have exactly the same amount of
wealth, while a coefficient of 1.0 means a single household has all the state's income.
Prepared by USC PERE | April 23, 2013 | 28
Changing Returns to Education in California, 1979-2009
$35
$30
$25
Real wage earned at various
education points – note that the return
has increased for college grads such
that the wage premium was about 100
percent in 1979 and is now nearly 200
percent in 2009
$20
1979
$15
2009
$10
$5
$0
< high school
high school only
some college, no
degree
AA or equivalent
BA or better
Prepared by USC PERE | April 23, 2013 | 29
How can the state
park system help with
significant social
challenges?
 Intersecting state
park system with
needs of low-income
population and
communities of color
 Thanks to Greeninfo
for advice and
pioneering
techniques
Zoom to major urban areas
IMPLICATIONS FOR STATE PARKS
 Need to understand whether the
future demographics are being
served by park and other systems
 Need to see the park system as
one part of contributing to
opportunity for all residents
 Need to see how every system
can help with reconnecting
Californians across generations
and geographies
BUILDING THE FUTURE