Transcript Slide 1

SPEC (Social, Political,
Economic and Cultural)
Barometer
December 2011 Survey Findings
Prepared by Ipsos-Synovate
Release Date: 19th January 2012
Study Objectives
• To determine the knowledge of the general public on:
- The IEBC and its Mandate
- Electoral Requirements (voter and presidential candidate) and
- Electable Seats.
• To assess the perceptions of the general public towards the ICC
process in regards to:
- Level of support
- Reasons for support or non-support
• Preferred presidential candidate.
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Methodology
Survey Methodology
Dates of polling
Sample Size
Sampling methodology
12th – 19th December 2011
2,000 respondents
Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS
(proportionate to population size)
Universe
Kenyan adults, aged 18+ living in Urban
and Rural areas
Data collection
methodology
Structured Face-to-Face interviews at the
household level
Sampling error
Ipsos-Synovate 2012
+/-2.2 with a 95% confidence level
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Sampling Frame Statistics
Ipsos-Synovate
Sample Frame
statistics
(December 2011)
Population
Census as at
2009 (18 years
+)
Base
2,000
19,462,360
12,616,627
Central
13%
13%
16%
16%
Coast
9%
9%
9%
8%
Eastern
15%
15%
16%
17%
Nairobi
10%
10%
10%
8%
North Eastern
5%
5%
3%
2%
Nyanza
13%
13%
11%
15%
Rift Valley
25%
25%
24%
23%
Western
10%
10%
11%
11%
Total
100%
100%
100%
100%
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IIEC Voter
Register
Registered Voters as
(August 2010
at ECK 2007 Voter
Referendum)
Register
14,088,302
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The IEBC and its
Mandate
“Are you aware of the following organisations or
institutions?”
(By Total)
Base: All Respondents (n=2,000)
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“Are you aware of the following organisations or
institutions?”
(By age, gender & setting)
Base: Those aware of the IEBC (n=1 ,007)
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“Other than organizing elections, what are the other
functions of the IEBC?”
(By Total)
Base: n=1 ,007 (Those aware of the IEBC)
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Voter Registration
Requirements
Constitutional Requirements for Registration
as a Voter
Article 83 (1):
A person qualifies for registration as a voter at elections or
referenda if the person
(a) is an adult citizen
(b) is not declared to be of unsound mind and;
(c) has not have been convicted of an election offence during the
preceding five years
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“What are the requirements for you to register as a voter?”
(By Total)
Base: All Respondents (n=2,000)
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Intention to Vote in
the Next General
Election
The History of Voter Turnout in Kenya
Source: http://www.idea.int/vt/country_view.cfm?CountryCode=KE
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“Do you intend to vote in the next general election?”
(By Total)
Base: All Respondents (n=2,000)
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“Do you intend to vote in the next general election?”
(By Province)
Base: All Respondents
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“Do you intend to vote in the next general election?”
(By Gender, Age and Setting)
Base: All Respondents
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“Why will you not vote in the next general election?”
Base: Those indicating that they do NOT intend to vote the next general elections (n = 180)
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Requirements for a
Presidential
Candidate to be
Declared Winner
Constitutional Requirements for a Presidential
Candidate to be Declared Winner
Article 138/4:
A presidential candidate will be declared a winner if :
1. The candidate garners “50%+1” of all votes cast in
the election and;
2. The candidate garners at least 25% in more than
half (i.e. 24) of the 47 counties.
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Constitutional Requirements for a Presidential
Candidate to be Declared Winner
(By Total)
Those aware of “Candidate garners 50% +1 of all votes cast”
Base All Respondents; November (n=2,000) December (n=2,000)
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Constitutional Requirements for a Presidential
Candidate to be Declared Winner
(By Province)
Those aware of “Candidate garners 50% +1 of all votes cast”
Base: All Respondents
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Constitutional Requirements for a Presidential
Candidate to be Declared Winner
(By Province)
Those aware of “Candidate garners at least 25% of votes cast in more than half (i.e
24) of the 47 counties”
Base: All Respondents
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Constitutional Requirements for a Presidential
Candidate to be Declared Winner
(By Total)
Those aware of both requirements
Base All Respondents; December (n=2,000)
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Electable Positions
Electable Positions
Old Constitution
New Constitution
1. President
1. President
2. Member of Parliament
2. Member of Parliament
3. Councilor
3. Councilor
4. Governor
5. Senator
6. County Women’s Representative
7. County Assembly Representative
8. Mayor (Cities )
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“Apart from the President, what other political positions will
Kenyans be required to vote for in the next general election?”
(By Total)
Base: All Respondents (n=2,000)
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“Apart from the President, what other political positions
will Kenyans be required to vote for in the next general
election?”
(By Province )
Focus on Senator and Governor
Base: All Respondents (n=2,000)
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“Apart from the President, what other political positions
will Kenyans be required to vote for in the next general
election?”
Focus on County Women’s Representative
% of those aware of Women’s Representative as an electable
position
Base: All Respondents (n=2,000)
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Implications of this Study
• Voter education programmes
- Targeted campaigns to youth and women
- Regional communication strategies
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The ICC Process
Those who support the ICC Process – Time Series
100%
4 weeks prior to the ICC
Confirmation of the charges
ruling
% who support ICC Trials
80%
68%
61%
57%
60%
40%
Before Ocampo 6
list was unveiled
After Ocampo 6
list was unveiled
56%
Summons issued to
appear at The Hague
59%
54%
Pre-ICC confirmation of
hearing trials
Post-ICC confirmation
of hearing trials
20%
0%
Oct-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Dec-11
Base: All Respondents (n=2,000)
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“Why are you happy that The ICC is pursuing the six
suspects of the post election violence (PEV)?”
Those who support trials ICC process – By Province
% who support the ICC Process
80%
76%
70%
66%
66%
62%
60%
54%
50%
47%
46%
44%
40%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Total
Central
Coast
Eastern
Nairobi
North
Eastern
Nyanza
Rift
Valley
Western
(Base All Respondents; December (n=2,000)
Base: Those who support the ICC process (n=1,081)
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“Why are you happy that The ICC is pursuing the six
suspects of the post election violence (PEV)?”
Base: Those who support the ICC process (n=1,081)
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“Why are you unhappy that The ICC is pursuing the
six suspects of the post election violence (PEV)?”
Base: Those against the ICC process (n=707)
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“Apart from President Kibaki, if presidential elections were held now,
whom would you vote for if that person was a candidate?”
By Total
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“Apart from President Kibaki, if presidential elections were
held now, whom would you vote for if that person was a
candidate?” – Time Series
Trend analysis is for the top 6 aspirants
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In Conclusion
• The ICC ruling on whether to confirm or drop all or some
of the charges is likely to change the political landscape
and may have an impact of the presidential aspirant
ratings.
• As politicians position themselves for action post the ICC
Ruling, the varying support levels for the ICC Trials by
region does point to potential regional political realignments.
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Additional materials available
This press release is supported by the following materials;
- A PowerPoint presentation
- MS-word press releases
- An audio recording in Kiswahili of the key findings
- An audio recording of the press briefing in English
These materials can be downloaded from www.synovate.co.ke
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Thank You
Q&A
.
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Detailed Poll
Methodology
POLL METHODOLOGY
The target population for this survey was all Kenyan adults aged 18 and above (voting age). A sample
size of 2,000 respondents was drawn, using a 32:68 urban to rural ratio. The margin of error
attributed to sampling and other random effects of this poll’s sample size is +/- 2.2 % margin at 95%
confidence level. This sample size is large enough to make reliable estimates on the target population
opinion. The fieldwork for this survey was conducted between 12th and 19th, December 2011.
To achieve this sample a randomized multi-stage stratified design using probability proportional to
size (PPS) was used. This ensures that districts with a higher population size had a proportionately
higher sample size allocation. This survey was conducted in 56 administrative and geographical
districts in Kenya.
The interviews were done at household level. Household interviews were preferred because they
allow for pure random sampling ensuring full representation of the various demographics and also for
quality control.
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Poll Methodology (Cont..)
These face-to-face in-home interviews are also preferred because they allowed for further probing as
respondents have more time to respond to questions as compared to street interviews.
The households were selected using the systematic random sampling procedure. In this case a random
starting point was selected within a cluster of households. From that point the interviewers mainly skipped 4
households until the sample size for that cluster in the district was achieved. One eligible respondent was
then selected from each qualifying household through a household member randomization technique known
as the Kish Grid. This was done to ensure that there was no bias related to household member selection. In
cases where the eligible respondent was not available for interviewing, the field interviewers made at least 3
callbacks. If after the third callback the required respondent was still not available for the interview, the field
interviewer substituted that household for another.
The data collection involved the use of a semi-structured questionnaire having both open and closed ended
questions. Poll questions were structured in a very open manner, with all possible options provided, including
room for other (specify), no response and don’t know. This ensures that there is no bias at all with the way
the questions are asked.
Strict quality control measures for data collection were applied. The fieldwork Supervisors made a minimum
of 15% on-site back checks and accompanied a minimum of 10% of all interviewers’ calls, while the field
managers made 20% back-checks. These back-checks were made within the same day of interviewing.
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Sampling Frame – Urban & Rural
Total
Central
Coast
Eastern
Nairobi
North
Eastern
Nyanza
Rift
Valley
Western
2,000
262
176
299
210
95
262
493
203
Urban
37%
37%
51%
24%
100%
21%
27%
29%
21%
Rural
63%
63%
49%
76%
0%
79%
73%
71%
79%
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Methodology
Sample distribution – District Level
Province
Central
Coast
Eastern
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District
Rural
Urban
Total
Kiambu
24
34
58
Kirinyaga
33
10
43
Murang’a
43
10
53
Nyeri
38
12
50
Thika
28
30
58
Kilifi
26
10
36
Kwale
25
10
35
Malindi
12
10
22
Mombasa
0
55
55
Taita Taveta
13
5
18
Tana River
10
0
10
Embu
15
10
25
Kitui
27
10
37
Machakos
31
32
63
Makueni
44
10
54
Mbeere
13
0
13
Meru Central
35
10
45
Meru North
42
0
42
Mwingi
19
0
19
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Methodology
Sample distribution (continued)
Province
Nairobi
North Eastern
District
Rural
Urban
Total
Embakasi
0
30
30
Makadara
0
20
20
Pumwani
0
20
20
Kasarani
0
40
40
Dagoretti
0
30
30
Kibera
0
40
40
Westlands
0
30
30
76
20
96
15
0
15
31
0
31
30
15
45
15
26
41
22
15
37
27
10
37
20
5
25
31
0
31
Garissa
Bondo
Gucha
Kisii Central
Kisumu
Nyanza
Migori
Nyamira (North Kisii)
Rachuonyo
Siaya
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Methodology
Sample distribution (continued)
Province
Nairobi
North Eastern
District
Rural
Urban
Total
Embakasi
0
30
30
Makadara
0
20
20
Pumwani
0
20
20
Kasarani
0
40
40
Dagoretti
0
30
30
Kibera
0
40
40
Westlands
0
30
30
76
20
96
15
0
15
31
0
31
30
15
45
15
26
41
22
15
37
27
10
37
20
5
25
31
0
31
Garissa
Bondo
Gucha
Kisii Central
Kisumu
Nyanza
Migori
Nyamira (North Kisii)
Rachuonyo
Siaya
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For further information contact:
[email protected]
or
[email protected]
or
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