Transcript Slide 1

Contemporary terrorism
James J.F. Forest
Director of Terrorism Studies
The Combating Terrorism Center
At west point
NJ Homeland Security Conference, 10 April 2007
The views expressed herein are those of the author
and do not purport to reflect the position of the United
States Military Academy, the Department of the Army,
or the Department of Defense.
http://ctc.usma.edu
Terrorism: Key Terms
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Definitions (many)
Vision
Power
Strategy
Duty
Shame
Freedom Fighter
Self-sacrifice
Will to kill (intent)
Skill to kill (capability)
Insurgency
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Ideology
Enabling Environments
Radicalization
Emotions
Moral Disengagement
Asymmetric Warfare
Facilitators/Causes
Learning Organization
Counter vs. Anti
Hard/Soft Power
Early Historical examples
• Zealots – 1st century BCE, murdered Romans in broad
daylight in Jerusalem
• Thugs – Hindu sect that strangled & robbed victims in ritual
sacrifice
• Assassins – Muslim followers of Hassan (Persian, not Arabic)
known for public acts of violence
• French revolution – use of revolutionary tribunals; rule by
fear/terror (Robespierre’s “lists”)
• “Sons of Liberty” – provoked by Stamp Act, organized mobs
to tar and feather colonists still loyal to the king, forcing
many to flee the country and settle in Canada
• Klu Klux Klan – effective in spreading fear; forced federal
government to end Reconstruction
Intentions: A brief history
1880s-1920s
– Anarchists, Nechaev’s Revolutionary Catechism; Bakunin;
Kropotkin’s “propaganda by the deed” – words are not enough . . .
1920s-1960s
– Anti-colonialism; Freedom for indigenous peoples to decide own
system, structure
– Anti-racism, imperialism; fewer assassinations then previous wave;
attacks mainly on police, military, colonial govt. targets
1960s-1990s
– Marxism, nationalism, ethnic separatism
– Civilian targets; Carlos Marighella, Minimanual of the Urban
Guerilla; IRA, The Green Book
– Shiite revolution; state-sponsored terror (Iran, Libya)
1990s – present
– Afghanistan (1980s) Jihad to oust the Soviets; Iraq (present) Jihad
to oust the Americans
– Fatwas against the West; oust them from holy lands; late 1990s
shift from near enemy to far enemy
Intentions & ideologies
• The role of ideology in a revolutionary movement is to clarify,
denounce, explain, solve and mobilize
• Ideology legitimates the struggle—it converts brute power to
rightful authority
• Ideologies fuel both local and global perceptions of injustices and
need for action/retribution
 Ideologies offer a combination of intellectual and emotional appeal
 Events may be interpreted/twisted in ways that support ideology
Ideologies of violence
 Violence is seen as necessary for achieving change
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Political change (e.g., Kashmir, Tamil Eelam, overthrow govt., etc.)
Social change (e.g., France headscarf ban, anti-abortionists, etc.)
Economic change (e.g., stop oil exports; change resource distribution)
Religious change (e.g., fundamentalist interpretations of the faith)
 A Variety of Terrorist Ideologies:
 Nationalists and Ethnic Separatists
(e.g., Anti-colonial groups,
Chechens, PLO, Tamil Tigers/LTTE, Basques/ETA, Kurds/PKK)
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Left-wing (e.g., radical Communists revolutionaries)
Right Wing (often target race and ethnicity; Nazi, Aryan nations, etc.)
Religious (e.g., Christian militias, Islamic jihadists, Shia revolutionaries, Zionists)
Others: Anarchists, Environmentalists, Animal Rights Extremists
Apocalyptic cults, etc.
Ideologies of violence
A Spectrum of Ideologies
Threshold of
catastrophic
violence
Nonviolent
Protests
Groups that want to
change the world, but
reject the need for
violent means
Apocalyptic
Terrorism
Groups that want to
change the world,
and see a need for
violent means
Groups that want to
destroy the world,
for various reasons,
possibly with WMD
Capabilities: a Brief history
1880s-1920s
– Communication and transportation patterns; telegraph; daily
newspapers; railroads; technology would shrink time and space
– Early weapons were mostly guns and knives, but the invention
of dynamite helped launch new terrorist capabilities
1920s-1960s
– Faster means of communication, transportation, money transfer
1960s-1990s
– Global sharing of new timing devices, other trigger switches for
explosives; new types of explosives
– Airplane hijackings; global proliferation of small arms & light
weapons
1990s – present
– Increasing sophistication of IEDs
– Use of “ultimate smart bomb” (suicide terrorists)
– Weapons of Mass Disruption & Destruction
– Globalization enhances capabilities of networked organizations
Modern Trends
• More violent attacks (and increasing lethality); more media coverage
• Increasing use of suicide bombers (the ultimate smart bomb)
• Important and useful new technologies
– Innovations in biotechnology, chemical industries (including binary
explosives)
– Increasing usefulness of the Internet for target surveillance, operational
communication and coordination, fundraising/friendraising, etc.
• Funding Sources
– Bank robberies, extortion, etc.
– State sponsorship
– Diaspora support, particular from immigrants to developed Western
countries
– Transnational criminal organizations, Trafficking in drugs, weapons, banned
goods, people
Modern Trends
• Cellular network organization models developed by the Algerian
insurgency groups and the IRA are now common among most
terror groups
– Insulates leadership from intelligence, law enforcement effort
– Creates challenges for tactical control of violence, transaction integrity, et al.
• Future projections
– Who will most likely turn to terrorism? Those who have the most to lose
by the global spread of secular, liberal democratic governance . . .
• Religious terrorist groups are (and will likely remain) most
common threat worldwide
- even insurgencies and ethnic separatist groups are using religion to justify
violence
Religious Terrorism is unique
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Long-term view of history and future
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Sense of crisis, threat of secularization, globalization
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Members believe they are involved in a struggle of good vs evil
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Acting along desires of a diety – audience is thus not necessarily human.
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Belief in their own revealed truth from God; piety and persistence in the
faith will give you the strength to overcome anything
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Doing the bidding of a higher power; demands sacrifice; rewards in this life
and the next; unconstrained by laws
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Complete alienation from existing socio/political order
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Support may be diffuse
Radical Islam
The radical neo-fundamentalists view the action
as more important than the result. Thus,
individual jihad becomes more important than
victory. The goal is to serve God, not to achieve
a certain political agenda. The results will come
when God wills it.
- Magnus Norell
Religious ideologies are powerful because they are:
• theologically supremacist - meaning that all believers assume superiority
over non-believers, who are not privy to the truth of the religion
• exclusivist - believers are a chosen people, or their territory is a holy land
• absolutist - it is not possible to be a half-hearted believer, and you are either
totally within the system, or totally without it
• polarizing in terms of right and wrong, good and evil, light and dark
Salafi-jihad ideology
Al Qaida and
affiliated groups
Salafi-jihad ideology
• Islam is the one and only way of ruling mankind that is acceptable to God
• Pluralism, the idea that no one has a monopoly on truth, is a falsehood,
and liberal democracy (rule by man’s laws) is against God’s will.
• Muslims should use force to establish a more just society. (Mawdudi)
• Jihad is the only source of internal empowerment and reform in the
Muslim world. (Qutb, Maqdisi, et al.)
• Muslims must resist the influences of Western institutions and traditions
that have poisoned mankind (Qutb)
• We have a global conflict between Islam and the West. Islam is under
siege and only we (the Jihadis, the “pure” defenders of Islam) can lift it.
Salafi-jihad ideology
“The world is truly messed up, and only Islam is the answer - therefore we
(Jihadis) must do all that is necessary to tear down the existing order and
replace it with one built on Islam.”
• We must mobilize the entire Muslim community to join our global jihad
• We must overthrow corrupt, incompetent “apostate” regimes in the
Middle East and replace them with governments that rule by Sharia law
• This requires defeating their powerful Western patrons (OBL, Zawahiri)
• Then we must re-establish the Islamic caliphate to rule over the entire
Muslim world
• The violence we inflict upon our own people, governments, and
resources is 1) necessary, 2) religiously sanctioned, and 3) really the
fault of the West, Israel, and apostate regimes.
Elements of the Jihadist Threat
• Global in scope and strategic objectives
• Generational in scope; epic struggle, David vs. Goliath
- Bin Laden as Robin Hood
• “The number of the brothers is large . . . I do not know
everyone who is with us in this base or this organization.”
– Bin Laden as Pied Piper, with a constant call to jihad as the
duty of every good Muslim
• Educated members as martyrs in AQ; longer planning cycles
(9/11 hijackers arriving in U.S. as early as 1994)
• Evolution into a political social movement, a global insurgency
against Western-oriented globalization
• Afghanistan and Iraq offering new locations for Jihad,
indoctrination, tactical training, network formation
Elements of the Jihadist threat
• Increasing number and lethality of attacks
• Attacks are carried out not by AQ-trained members or some
other centralized group, but by affiliates and wanna-bes
• Use of children and female suicide bombers by terrorist
organizations
• Info Ops – role of technology
– From DVDs and web videos to Al Jazeera
– Availability of info on government security, CT efforts
• EW – another role of technology
• Taking instruments from our daily life—the backpack, the car,
the shoe, the cell phone—and turning them into weapons. Goal
– damage the trust necessary for a successful open society
• Shifting from small groups to motivated and resourceful
individuals (Madrid, London)
Elements of the Jihadist threat
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Praying Honestly for Martyrdom
Supporting the Families of Wounded
and Imprisoned Fighters
Collecting Donations
Healing the Wounded
Praising the Mujahidin and
Commemorating their Exploits
Defending the Mujahidin
Exposing the Hypocrites and
Defeatists
Guiding the Mujahidin
Urging People Toward Jihad
Distributing books and Brochures
Learning the Jurisprudence of Jihad
Electronic Jihad
Boycotting goods, abandon luxury
Raising children to love mujahidin
Think global, act local
I and thousands like me are forsaking everything for what we
believe. Our driving motivation doesn’t come from tangible
commodities that this world has to offer. Our religion is Islam –
obedience to the one true God, Allah, and following the footsteps
of the final prophet and messenger Muhammad …
Your democratically elected governments continuously perpetuate
atrocities against my people all over the world. And your support
of them makes you directly responsible, just as I am directly
responsible for protecting and avenging my Muslim brothers and
sisters. Until we feel security, you will be our targets. And until
you stop the bombing, gassing, imprisonment and torture of my
people we will not stop this fight. We are at war and I am a
soldier.
Mohammad Sidique Khan, participant in the July 7, 2005 suicide bomb attacks in London, in a
video message released by the British authorities Sept. 1, 2005.
Radicalization 3 Categories of
Academic Theory
1.
Aspects of the Self
What influences individuals’ decision
to join a terrorist group?
2.
Social & Group Dynamics
What social and group dynamics
influence individual actions?
3.
Conditions and Facilitators
What local circumstances allow
terrorist groups to thrive and grow?
What facilitates radicalization, and
where? Why do violent ideologies
resonate?
Places of
Extremism/Radicalization
Places which bring together groups of like-minded
individuals whose shared purpose and experiences build
lifelong trust and a sense of “us, together against the
world” among its members.
(cf. Marc Sageman, Understanding Terror Networks)
Places where grievances are converted to compelling
ideologies, including those that emphasize the need to
kill others
Potential Places of
Extremism/Radicalization
Examples include:
• Places of Worship (mosque, church, synagogue); special
importance because of interpretation power
• Places of Political Ideas and Learning (school, madrasa,
university); these also have interpretation power
• Places of Shared Purpose and Bonds (places of work, community
centers, soccer leagues, prisons, gyms)
• Communities, Families, Social Networks
• The Internet (open access to seekers and publishers of info)
• Unique Places (training camps, secret facilities, al Manar, etc.)
Enablers of ideological
resonance
Expectations
Demands
Grievances
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Limited opportunities/power
to bring about change
without use of violence
Frustration
Humiliation
Resentment
Hopelessness
Sense of Crisis
• Local political, economic and social conditions:
– Chaos/capacity (weak/failing states, zones of competing governance)
– Socio-demographics (youth bulge, unemployment, lack of integration, etc.)
– Authoritarian/repressive regimes; desire to address a power imbalance
(AQ/Hizb as symbols of “resistance” - empowering the disenfranchised)
– Ethnic/Socio-cultural fissures (Tamils, Chechens, Kurds, Basques)
– Pre-existing belief in superiority of race, religion, tribe, etc.
– “Holy land” geographical issues, historical irredentist claims
• Global issues:
– Israeli-Palestinian conflict (incl. as symbol of universal Muslim oppression)
– Perceptions of U.S. relations/bias/imperialism/double standards
– Globalization/Westernization of cultural values “threatening our way of life”
constraints of ideological
resonance
Socio-Political Constraints
• Lack of acceptance about the need for violence, or “sense of crisis”
• Failure to build ideology on pre-existing belief structures, cultural values,
etc. within a particular community
• Behavior of group’s leader seen as too extreme (or perhaps not extreme
enough) by community members
• Grievances are not widely shared by community members
• Popular support vs. potential to disgust potential supporters thru violence
Religious Constraints
• Fringe/overly radical interpretation of religious texts (e.g., cults like Aum
Shinrikyo) deters potential believers/supporters
• Lack of acceptance of proposed religious justification for violence (for
example, al Qaida claims strategic justification, but do they truly have
theological permission to kill Muslims?)
• Violence prevents individual Muslims from conducting their own jihad as
Qu’ran requires
Radicalization & Ideologies
Radicalization:
– requires funding
– requires purpose
– involves a new or different vision of the future (a future
that some believe cannot be achieved w/out violence)
– is rooted in information, beliefs, perceptions and
interpretation (hence the important role of churches,
schools, other places of potential radicalization)
Emotions are more powerful than intellectual appeals
Images are often more powerful than words
Community Radicalization
• Effective radicalization starts with the young
• So-called "seekers" of any age are prime candidates for
becoming radicalized (you know what a seeker is; you
know a seeker, looking for something that is not in his or
her life; searching for meaning, purpose, etc.)
• Family radicalization is more effective than focusing on a
single individual (bonds of blood)
• Radicalization of any kind requires local context (but not
necessarily local hardships); e.g., London vs. Kashmir
Impact on our communities
• Radicalization and community policing . . .
• Law enforcement professionals are on the frontlines, most
able to detect radicalization and to intervene
• Certain communities are at risk of becoming engines of
radicalization
– You already know where many of these are
• Law enforcement is increasingly asked to serve a critical
intelligence role – that is, gathering information that may
not be useful for a criminal prosecution
• New demands on law enforcement for community
engagement, cultural understanding, diplomacy, etc.
How we Respond
Focus on places of ideological interpretation
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We must establish a presence inside the places of radicalization
(institutions of worship, learning, shared purpose, etc. as well as the
Internet) in order to reach the audiences that are being radicalized from
within.
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Focus on where youth might be exposed to radical ideas
(including clubs, youth groups, video games, Internet, etc.)
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Further, we must have the active assistance of individuals who are
already established as credible peers within those institutions . . .
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Coming at this problem from the outside, where our messages and
ideas are already discredited, does very little.
How we Respond
Multiple dimensions required in our CT approach
• Local law enforcement personnel play an important role as the
intelligence “sensors” within communities of concern
– They know where the hotspots are in their city, and have some sense of
the cultural dimensions of certain neighborhoods
• Identify and target the funding streams
• Radical charismatic leaders must be identified and dealt with
(e.g., discrediting their radical ideas as unsupported by core
values)
• Interagency and multinational cooperation will be critical to
our success.
Final thoughts
• Our ability to combat radicalization process requires the ability to:
– Identify certain kinds of information (ideas, messages, images)
– Identify the sources of this information (who is seen as a
legitimate source of knowledge/interpretation within a
particular group or movement?)
– Understand (and if possible, avoid) actions which can be
interpreted as justification for radical ideology
– Understand the global spectrum of interpreters and
responders, and their role in a radical movement’s trajectory
Final thoughts
Information Warfare: influencing the “street perception” of an
organization is a powerful component of an overall
counterterrorism strategy
Need to discredit the perception of competence and operational
security of a network
Need to undermine the ideological resonance of a particular group’s
message
Need to discredit the messengers . . .
– Proposed religious justification for violence is false
– Overly radical interpretation of key religious texts is a betrayal of God
– Highlight personal agenda of power-hungry leaders
questions
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