Transcript STUDI KELAYAKAN INVESTASI-MTP

STUDI KELAYAKAN INVESTASI
BIDANG REAL ESTATE
( Investment Feasibility Study in Real Estate )
Pengajar : Ir. Irwan Nurhadi SE, MM ,MBA
Program : MTP -Untar
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Scope Financial Management
:
I.Sumber Dana ( Source of Fund ) – Internal & External
a. Macam – Sumber dana & bagaimana mendapatkannya
b. Persyaratan apa saja untuk mendapatkannya
c. Kendala- kendala apa saja untuk mendapatkannya .
II. Penggunaan dana / alokasi dana ( Usage of Fund )
a. Kofigurasi /Struktur Biaya
b. Kreteria Investasi dengan Methodenya
c. Cashflow suatu Investasi
FINANCIAL
DECISION
INVESTMENT
DECISION
III. Mengukur Profitabilitas :
a. BEP BES
b. Ratio Profitability : Profit Margin, ROI -DUPONT Analysis.
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I.
Pengertian - pengertian :
Pengetian dan manfaat Study Kelayakan Investasi :
Analysis proforma dari expexted income , expenses dan profitabilitas, dari suatu proposal
pengembangan Real estate , yang dikaitkan dengan kondisi pasar ,lokasi ,kondisi ekonomi
sekarang dan kemudian hari ,dan bermanfaat dalam memenuhi salah satu dokumen untuk
mendapatkan pinjaman dana utk suatu pengembangan
proyek
Sedangkan Proses Investasi suatu Real estate adalah seperti tergambar dalam Gambar :1
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TYPE OF FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS
Feasibility analysis
The feasibility of a project can be ascertained in terms of technical factors economic factors,
or both. A feasibility study is documented with a report showing all the ramification of the
project.
Technical Feasibility. Technical feasibility refers to the ability of the process to take
advantage of the current state of the technology in pursuing further improvement.
The technical capability of the personnel as well as the capability of the available technology
should be considered.
Managerial Feasibility. Managerial feasibility involves the capability of the infrastructure of
a process to achieve and sustain process improvement. Management support, employee
involvement, and commitment are key element required to ascertain managerial feasibility.
Economic Feasibility. This involves the feasibility of the proposed project to generate
economic benefits. A benefit – cost analysis and a breakeven analysis are important aspects of
evaluating the economic feasibility of new industrial projects. The tangible and intangible
aspects of a projects should be translated into economic terms to facilitate a consistent basis
for evaluation.
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Financial Feasibility. Financial feasibility should be distinguished from economic
feasibility. Financial feasibility involves the capability of the project organization
to raise the appropriate funds needed to implement the proposed project. Project
financing can be a mayor obstacle in large multiparty project because of the level
of capital required. loan availability, credit worthiness, equity, and loan schedule
are important aspects of financial feasibility analysis.
Cultural Feasibility. Cultural feasibility deals with the compatibility of the
proposed project with the cultural setup of the project environment. In labour
intensive project, planned function must be integrated with the local cultural
practices and beliefs.
For example, religious beliefs may influence what an individual is willing to do or
not do.
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Social Feasibility. Social feasibility addresses the influences that a proposed project
may have on the social system in the project environment. The ambient social
structure may be such that certain categories of workers may be in short supply or
nonexistent. The effect of the project on the social status of the project participants
must be assessed to ensure compatibility. it should be recognized that workers in
certain industries may have certain status symbols within the society.
Safety Feasibility. Safety feasibility is another important aspect that should be
considered in project planning. Safety feasibility refers to an analysis of whether
the project is capable of being implemented and operated safely with minimal
adverse effects on the environment. Unfortunately, environmental impact
assessment is often not adequately addresses in complex project. As an example,
the North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) between the U.S. Canada, and
Mexico was temporarily suspended in 1993 because of the legal consideration of
the potential environmental impacts of the project to be undertaken under the
agreement.
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Political Feasibility. A politically feasible may be referred to as a “ politically
correct project “. Political consideration often dictate the direction for a proposed
project.
This is particularly true for large projects with national visibility that may have
significant government inputs and political implications. For example, political
necessity may be a source of support for a project regardless of the project’s
merits.
On the other hand, worthy project may face insurmountable opposition simply
because of political factors. Political feasibility analysis requires an evaluation of
the compatibility of project goals with the prevailing goals of the political system.
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SCOPE OF FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS
Scope of Feasibility Analysis. In general terms, the element of a feasibility
analysis for a project should cover the following items :
1.Need Analysis. This indicates a recognition of a need for the project.
The need may affect the organization itself, another organization, the public, or the
government. A preliminary study is then conducted to confirm and evaluate the
need. A proposal of how the need may be satisfied is then made. pertinent
questions that should be asked include :
Is the need significant enough to justify the proposed project ?
Will the need still exist by the time the project is completed ?
What are the alternate means of satisfying the need ?
What are the economic. social, environmental, and political impacts of the need ?
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2. Process Work. This is the preliminary analysis done determine what
will be required to satisfy the need. The work may be performed by a consultant
who is an expert in the project field. The preliminary study often involves system
models or prototypes. For technology – oriented project, artist’s conception and
scaled – down models may be used for illustrating the general characteristics of a
process. A simulation of the proposed system can be carried out to predict the
outcome before the actual project starts.
3. Engineering and Design. This involves a detailed study of the proposed project.
Written quotations are obtained from suppliers and subcontractors as needed.
Technology capabilities are evaluated as needed. Product design, if needed, should
be done at this stage.
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4. Cost Estimate. This involves estimating project cost to an acceptable level of accuracy.
Levels of around – 5% to + 15% are common at this level of a project plan. Both the initial
and operating costs are included in the cost estimation. Estimates of capital investment and
of recurring and nonrecurring costs should also be contained in the cost estimate
document. Sensitivity analysis can be carried out on the estimated cost values to see how
sensitive the project plan is to the estimated cost values.
5. Financial Analysis. This involves an analysis of the cash flow profile of the project.
The analysis should consider rates of return, inflation, sources of capital, payback periods,
breakeven point, residual values, and sensitivity.
This is a capital analysis since it determines whether or not and when funds will be
available to the project. The project cash flow profile helps to support the economic and
financial feasibility of the project. The project cash flow profile helps to support the
economic and financial feasibility of the project.
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6. Project Impacts. This portion of the feasibility study provides an
assessment of the impact of the proposed project. Environmental, social,
cultural, political, and economic impacts may be some of the factors that
will determine how a project is perceived by the public. The value added
potential of the project should also be assessed. A value added tax may be
assessed based on the price of product and the cost of the raw material
used in making the product. The tax so collected may be viewed as a
contribution to government coffers.
7.Conclusions and Recommendations. The feasibility study should end
with the overall outcome of the project analysis. This may indicate an
endorsement or disapproval of the project. Recommendations on what
should be done should be include in this section of the feasibility study
report.
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Stages of FS :
Market Study :A study of the market
variables which influences the supply
of and demand for real estate ( this is broadest possible form of analysis and it
encompasses all other of demand oriented real estate studies )
Marketability Study :
A narrowly defined study to determine the
conditions under which a specific property can be sold.
The key conclusions relate to both price and time required to sell.
A Feasibility Study : A study to determine the probability that a specific
real estate proposal will meet the objectives of the developer and or investor.
Highest and Best uses study : A study to determine that use among other
possible and legal alternatives uses which result in the higher land value for a
specific site.
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Proses Investasi suatu Real estate adalah :
Langkah 1 :Identifikasi Tujuan , Sasaran dan Batasan Investasi :
Kekayaan
Perusahaan, Risk – Return
Langkah 2 : Analisis Iklim Investasi dan Kondisi Pasar :
-Lingkungan- Pasar , Perijinan , Keuangan , Pajak.
Langkah 3 : Analisis Pengembangan Keuangan : - Keputusan Operasi Keputusan Keuangan
( Pajak2-PPh,PPn) Keputusan penyesuaian
Langkah 4 : Aplikasi Kreteria Pengambilan Keputusan Investasi : Methode Rules of Thumb , Discounted Cash
Flow , Traditional Valuation .
Langkah 5
: Pengambilan Keputusan Investasi
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Development Process & Management :
Dalam kegiatan real estate kita perlu memperhatikan
development process ( proses pengembangan ) dengan
langkah2 sbb:
Phase Planning and Initiation
Phase Feasibility
Phase Commitment
Phase Construction
Phase Opreration & Maintainance
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Pihak- pihak yang Terkait ( Participating Bodies – Development
Management Coordinating Activities :
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Matematika Investasi untuk F-S :
Dasar perhitungan : Time Value of Money , yang artinya nilai
sekarang lebih berharga dari nilai yang akan datang .
A. Compound Value Method : ( Bunga berbunga)
1. Compound Future Sums :
Formula : FV = PV ( 1 + i ) n
2 .Present Value of Future Sums :
Formula : PV = FV ( 1 + i )
-n
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3 . Constant Payment Annuities :
for Present Value :
i ( 1+ i ) n
Formula :
A = PV [ ------------------ ]
PV
(1+i)n -1
= A
[
( uniform Capital Recovery )
( 1 + i ) n -1
i(1+i)n
] ( uniform PV )
Future Value
:
(1+i)n - 1
Formula : FV = A [ -------------------]
i
i
A = FV [ -------------------] ( uniform Sinking Fund)
(1+i)n-1
Note : A = Annual Payment
PV = Present Value
FV = Future Value
i
= interest rate
n
= period of time ( year )
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Mekanisme Perhitungan Bunga :
A. Compund Value ( Bunga Berbunga )
B . Sliding rate : ( bunga menurun )
( lihat tabel - B )
C . Flat rate : ( bunga datar ) .
(lihat tabel - C )
D . Loan Amortization Schedule : ( Skedule amortisasi )( lihat tabel - D)
Komentar : bila bunga pasar tidak tetap maka cara - A agak sulit , sehingga Cara
B , C dan D sehingga bunga yang dipakai bunga Floating rate ( bunga mengambang )
.
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Kriteria Investasi :
Ada 3 - kriteria dalam menganalisis kelayakan Investasi
a . Rule of Thumb Method :
1. Payback period : = Berapa lama investasi kembali = N
N =
Total Investment (= Initial Investment)
Cash inflow
N yang terkecil yang dipilih .
2. Rate of Return Method :
Net income before Depreciation + Debtservice
- ROR =
Total Capital invested ( Puchase price )
ROR
=
Annual Cash flow after debt service
Cash equity Investment
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Average rate of return ( ARR ) :
ARR =
EAT
AI
AI = Total Investment / 2
ARR > Tingkat bunga pinjaman
b . Discounted Cash flow Method :
An
1. Net Present Value = NPV = - Io +  ----------(1+i )n
Ai = Net Cash Flow at the end of the year
I 0= Initial Investment outlay
i = discount rate .
n = project duration in years
NPV > 0 ------> Project Feasible
NPV < 0 -------> Not Feasible
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2. Internal Rate of Return ( IRR ) :
NPV = 0
Ai
I0
=  ------------( 1 + IRR ) n
, IRR > discount rate ---> Feasibel
3. Profitability Index Ratio :
PI =
PV EAT dahulu disebut Benefit Cost ratio
PV Cost
Bila PI > 1 -----> Feasible
PI < 1 ------> Not Feasible
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C.
Traditional Valuation Method :
Ada 3 - pendekatan utama :
Pendekatan Data Pasar ( Market data Approach)
Pendekatan Biaya ( Cost Approach )
Pendekatan Pendapatan ( Income - Approach ) .
Formula :
MV = LV + ( RCN -D )
MV = LV + IV
D= Depreciation
V=I/R
MV = MARKET VALUE
LV = LAND VALUE
RCN = Replacement Cost
New
I = Income per Year
R = Capitalization Rate
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Resiko Investasi :
Ada beberapa resiko pada investasi yang harus diperhitungkan yaitu :
Business Risk : resiko yang disebabkan oleh adanya fluktuasi / kondisi perekonomian secara
umum,dimana kita tidak bisa memprediksinya contoh Peraturan Pemeri ntah yang berubah .
•Liquididty Risk : resiko yang disebabkan tidak likuidnya dana perusahaan , yang
mengakibatkan kewajiban jangka pendek tidak bisa dipenuhi .
•Default Risk : resiko yang disebabkan karena tidak bisa mengembalikan pinjaman + bunganya
karena kesalahan rutin dalam menghitung .
•Financial Risk : resiko yang disebabkan kesalahan menghitung dan pengambilan asumsi2 nya
•Market Risk : resiko yang yang terjadi karena adanya fluktuasi pasar , seperti over suplly .
•Interest rate Risk : resiko yang disebabkan karena fluktuasi tingkat bunga dipasar naik ,
sehingga suku bunga pinjaman menjadi naik , dan menjadi kredit macet .
•Purchasing risk : resiko yang terjadi karena daya beli masyarakat menurun .
.
Country Risk ; resiko yang disebabkan adanya ke tidak stabilan suatu negara
karena adanya konflik
politik , perang dsb.
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Risk secara garis besar dapat dibagi - 2 Golongan
1 . Symetric risk -------> resiko yang bisa diukur , contoh : financial risk , market risk .
2 . Unsymetric risk ------> resiko yang tidak bisa diukur , seperti , business risk , political
risk.
Penangulangan Resiko : ada beberapa cara
Menghindari atau menghilangkan resiko :
•Memperhitungkan Real Estate Cycle
•Menghindari property beresiko tinggi
Mengalihkan resiko :
•Mengasuransikan property
•Menyewakan berjangka panjang
Mengurangi resiko :
•Jumlah kredit dikecilkan dan term of kredit diperlukan diperpanjang .
•Harga beli tanah mentah
•Deversifikasi ke beberapa sektor .
•Joint venture
•Hedging , forward cover .
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Macam - macam prilaku pengambil keputusan terhadap resiko :
Senang menghadapi Resiko ( Risk Seeker ).
Selalu menghindari Resiko ( Risk Averter ) .
Netral terhadap Resiko .
Total Utility
Risk Seeker
Indiferent to Risk
Utility of Money
Risk Averter
Money ( Return )
Risk Seeker : Increasing Marginal Utility of Money
Risk Averter : Diminishing Marginal Utility of Money
Indifferent to Risk : Constant Marginal Utility of Money .
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