Transcript Can Wind Power be a Viable Energy Source for the US?

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CAN WIND POWER BE A VIABLE
ENERGY SOURCE FOR THE US?
Group Information
Environment 110
Section: 002
GSI: Matthew Densmore
James Baubie
[email protected]
Rachael Shapely
[email protected]
David Horvath
[email protected]
The Breakdown
Objectives:
– Understand origins of wind power
– Analyze global utilization of wind power
– Analyze U.S. utilization of wind power
– Understand how the U.S. can use wind power
more effectively.
– Understand the benefits and challenges
associated with wind power
– Discover US wind power ambitions and their
feasibility
The Quest for Renewable Energy
• Experiencing a global energy crisis
• The world runs on fossil fuels
– 80% of the world’s energy comes
from fossil fuels (Peak Oil, 2007)
• Oil production is increasing rapidly
– Rapid industrialization of India and China
will further compound the energy problem
• Our current rate of consumption
is not sustainable
– Depletion of natural reserves
– Source of devastating pollution
– Contributor to global warming
• We need a new source of alternative energy
– Hydroelectric, solar, geothermal, wind?
Global Wind Initiatives
• Wind has emerged as a leader in global renewable energy
• Worldwide wind produces only .9% of electricity
• But many developed nations now derive a large percentage of
their energy from wind power
• Leaders in wind power utilization like Denmark acquire 21.4%
of their energy from the wind
The US’s Wind Initiatives
• The US is the world’s largest consumer of energy
• Despite being the world’s biggest energy consumer, the US is
lagging behind most of the developed world in harnessing wind
power
• Currently wind technology only accounts for 0.8% of overall
electricity generation in the U.S.
• But, the US Department of Energy is working to expand our wind
power capabilities
http://www1.eere.energy.gov/windandhydro/pdfs/41435.pdf
The Stella Model
• Hypothesis:
The US Department of Energy’s
plan to supply 20% of our
electrical power with wind
power could be a viable
solution to our nation’s energy
crisis.
• Model Goal:
Discover under what conditions
the U.S. can meet roughly 20%
of electricity generation with
wind power.
• The model will also estimate
the cost of this implementation.
Data and Assumptions
• 1,532 wind turbines constructed in 2006 with an
average power output of 1.6 megawatts.
• Capital cost per megawatt is $1.48 million
• Capital costs of turbine construction represent 80% of
total costs with the other 20% representing turbine
operational and maintenance costs (Denny and O’Malley,
2006).
• Current U.S. wind power generation capacity is 11,575
megawatts.
• Wind turbines have a life of 30 years.
• U.S. electricity production capacity is 1,075,677
megawatts and remains constant.
*Unless otherwise stated data comes from (Wiser, R.,
Bolinger, M., 2007)
Percent of U.S. Electricity Generated by Wind
Scenario 1
• Scenario 1 assumes
average turbine
output and rate of
turbine construction
to be constant.
• 20.7% of U.S.
electricity generation
capacity is met by
wind by 2095.
Wind Generated Power (in megawatts)
Scenario 2
• Rate of turbine
construction increases by
500 turbines per year
every 5.5 years.
• Average new turbine
power output increases
by 0.1 megawatts every
2.2 years.
• 20.9% of U.S. electricity
generation is provided by
wind power by 2040.
• Wind generated power is
224,530.5 megawatts.
Percent of U.S. Electricity Generated by Wind
Wind Generated Power (in megawatts)
Cost of the Implementation
• The estimated total cost of
this implementation is
approximately $400 billion.
• This figure includes the
capital cost of constructing
the turbines and the
operational/maintenance
costs over their 30 year
life.
Total Implementation and Maintenance Costs
[Scenario 2] (In millions of dollars)
Pros of Wind Power
• Clean nature of wind
• Power generated isn’t affected by changing prices of fuels that go into
generating other types of power such as coal and natural gas (Doherty,
Outhred, and O’Malley 2006)
• Wind is a domestic resource
• Lead to an economic investment of approximately $332 billion and
more than 3,725,000 full time equivalency job years for construction
and plant operation, largely focused in rural areas. (Lindenberg, Steve et
al., 2007 )
• The power generated by wind turbines is “proportional to the cube of
wind speed”. (Singh, Bhatti and Kothari 2007)
So What’s Stopping Us?
Some Cons to Wind Power
• Capital Costs
– wind may be free but wind turbines are expensive
– Capital construction costs comprise 75% - 80% of the total cost.
and O’Malley 2006)
• Maintenance and Operational Costs
– Comprise the other 20%-25%. (Denny and O’Malley 2006)
• Wind turbines cannot be efficient everywhere
– Maximum efficiency = high wind velocity + low altitude
(Denny
United States Average Annual Wind Power
Areas in dark blue have the most potential to
generate wind power, but all places
categorized as class 3 or higher, which includes
most of the Great Plains is sufficient for most
wind turbines
http://rredc.nrel.gov/wind/pubs/atlas/maps/chap2/201m.html
Some More Cons to Wind Power
• Wind is intermittent and varies greatly by day and season.
http://rredc.nrel.gov/wind/pubs/atlas/maps/chap2/2-02m.html
http://rredc.nrel.gov/wind/pubs/atlas/maps/chap2/2-05m.html
http://rredc.nrel.gov/wind/pubs/atlas/maps/chap2/2-03m.html
http://rredc.nrel.gov/wind/pubs/atlas/maps/chap2/2-04m.html
Conclusion
• The proposition of having the U.S. derive 20% of
its electricity from wind power is realistic within
the next thirty years.
• The estimated cost of $400 billion is large but not
prohibitively so.
• Take Home Message: Wind power is a viable
renewable energy source for the U.S., although it
will never be able to provide 100% of all
electricity because of its intermittent
characteristics.
Works Cited
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Denny, E., & O’Malley, M. 2007. “Quantifying the Total Net Benefits of Grid Integrated Wind”. IEEE
Transactions on Power Systems, VOL. 22, NO. 2: 605-614.
<http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/iel5/59/4162574/04162588.pdf?tp=&arnumber=4162588&isnumber=416257
4 > (23 October 2007)
Doherty, R., Outhred, H., O’Malley, M. 2006. “Establishing the Role That Wind Generation May Have in
Future Generation Portfolios”. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, VOL. 21, NO. 3: 1415-1421.
<http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/iel5/59/34850/01664979.pdf?tp=&arnumber=1664979&isnumber=34850 >
(23 October 2007)
Milliken, JoAnn et al. “The Advanced Energy Inititative”. Journal of Power Sources, Volume 172, Issue 1, 11
October 2007, Pages 121-131
Rebenitsch, R. 2007. “Wind Energy: Power from the Prarie”. The Futurist, 41, 1: 6-7.
<http://proquest.umi.com/pqdlink?Ver=1&Exp=10-212012&FMT=7&DID=1189106591&RQT=309&clientId=17822&cfc=1> (23 October 2007)
Li, Minqi.Peak Oil, the Rise of China and India, and the Global Energy Crisis
Journal of Contemporary Asia. Abingdon, Oxfordshire: Nov 2007. Vol. 37, Iss. 4; pg. 449, 23 pgs.
Works Cited Cont.
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Singh, S., Bhatti T.S., & Kothan, D.P. 2007. “Wind Power Estimation Using Artificial Neural
Network”. Journal of Energy Engineering, September: 46-51.
<http://scitation.aip.org/getabs/servlet/GetabsServlet?prog=normal&id=JLEED90001330000
01000046000001&idtype=cvips&gifs=yes > (23 October 2007)
Wiser, R., Bolinger, M. 2007. “Annual Report on U.S. Wind Power Installation, Cost, and
Performance Trends: 2006”. U.S. Department of Energy: Energy Efficiency and Renewable
Energy: 1-24. < http://www1.eere.energy.gov/windandhydro/pdfs/41435.pdf /> (23 October
2007)
"Wind Energy Resource Atlas of the United States”.
<http://rredc.nrel.gov/wind/pubs/atlas/maps/chap2/2-01m.html> (23 October 2007)
Lindenberg, Steve et al. 2007 . “Wind Power Today”. U.S. Department of Energy: Energy
Efficiency and Renewable Energy,: 1- 12. <
http://www1.eere.energy.gov/windandhydro/pdfs/41330.pdf> (22 November 2007)
“Wind Energy Resource Atlas of the United States: Map Description.”
<http://rredc.nrel.gov/wind/pubs/atlas/map_descript.html > (23 October 2007)
Slide 3 Includes a picture that can be found in George Kling’s lecture notes at
lecturetools.org.