Transcript Document
Network transparency: Necessity or luxury? EU and Turkey Aura Sabadus Editor, Turkish Energy Hub Daily ICIS Ankara, 21st May 2014 Transparency: Why bother? • Minimises risk • Discourages unfair/corrupt market practices • Establishes fair playing field • Leads to stable market conditions, attracts investors and therefore contributes to greater economic growth An empty-sounding ‘Western’ concept, or a key ingredient for national growth and individual prosperity? www.icis.com Contents THE EU’S THIRD ENERGY PACKAGE AND TRANSPARENCY • Transparency requirements at European/national levels • Case studies, UK, TTF TURKEY • The current situation • Impact on prices • Impact on economy/investment prospects • Where next? www.icis.com Types of transparency in traded markets • Physical network infrastructure – demand, flows, available capacity etc. • Reporting on individual shipper balances • Deals reporting and insider trading information – e.g. REMIT • Price transparency – price reporting agencies, exchanges etc. www.icis.com The EU’s Third Energy Package and Transparency “The Third Energy Package introduced in 2007 is designed to help facilitate an open, transparent and fully competitive market” AT PAN-EUROPEAN LEVEL: • Establishes ENTSO for electricity and natural gas. As part of its mission to ensure transparency and harmonisation, ENTSO is responsible for drawing up, updating and publishing non-binding EUwide network development plans AT NATIONAL LEVEL: • TSOs are expected to publish detailed information regarding the services its offers and the technical information for participants to gain effective access to the network www.icis.com Transparency requirements for TSOs, LNG, storage operators TSOs: • • To publish detailed information on • tariff derivation, structure and To disclose available contracted LNG methodology basis in a user-friendly, standardised To publish in user-friendly, manner standardised manner information • LNG, STORAGE OPERATORS • and storage capacities on a rolling To disclose at least on a daily basis about available entry/exit point the amount of gas in each capacities storage/LNG facility to system users and TSOs. These facilities include To publish ex-ante, ex-post supply those that are covered by TPA and demand information based on nominations, supply forecasts and realised flows exemption • To publish clear information about tariff derivation and methodology www.icis.com UK Instantaneous natural gas flows in the UK Timestamp: 18/05/2014 16:23 GMT Source: nationalgrid http://www2.nationalgri d.com/uk/Industryinformation/Gastransmissionoperational-data/Entryzone-graphs/ Total Supply Instantaneous Flows (mcm/day) Total System Supply 16:12 16:14 TOTAL SUPPLY 197.83 197.95 197.81 198.16 197.48 197.05 16:16 16:18 16:20 16:22 www.icis.com The Netherlands TRANSPORT INFORMATION BORDERPOINTS, INDUSTRY, • Physical gas balance STORAGE, LNG TERMINALS Capacity Daily • Balancing data • Dataport • Operational handling • Maintenance and transmission system • Transparency requirements • Daily capacity • Yearly capacities • Nominations • Near real-time interruptions • Flows and calorific values • Allocations • Transfers Source: Gasunie http://www.gasunietransportservices.nl/en/transportinformation/dataport www.icis.com Operators must publish daily data, many do better Hourly data helps shippers balance themselves and take action to balance the market BEFORE the TSO has to intervene Hourly or more frequent Daily UK (every 2 minutes) France Norway (every 15 minutes) Poland Netherlands Greece Denmark Hungary Austria Bulgaria Belgium Romania Czech Republic www.icis.com Aggregated data, ICIS European Gas Fundamentals www.icis.com Turkey: The current situation • Daily capacity • Nominations • Near real-time interruptions • Allocations • Transfers • LNG data (possible via satellite tracker) • Balancing price • Balancing price structure/methodology www.icis.com Available data – pipeline and LNG Malkoclar Kipi Daily pipeline flow data available from Bulgartransgaz, DESFA and Satellite Tracker Durusu Marmara LNG Aliaga LNG Turkgozu Unavailable data, Blue Stream, BTE, Iran Bazargan www.icis.com Information blackout, the effect of the balancing price uncertainty ‘Rumours’ of increase in May balancing price Turkish Day-ahead price 01.05-16.05 2014 in TL/1000sm3 715 710 705 BOTAS balancing price rumoured to have increased to TL718.00/1000sm3 without special consumption tax 700 Day-ahead 695 690 685 Source: ICIS www.icis.com 190 180 03/01/2013 21/02/2013 11/04/2013 28/05/2013 06/06/2013 17/06/2013 26/06/2013 05/07/2013 16/07/2013 25/07/2013 05/08/2013 14/08/2013 23/08/2013 04/09/2013 13/09/2013 24/09/2013 03/10/2013 14/10/2013 23/10/2013 01/11/2013 12/11/2013 21/11/2013 02/12/2013 11/12/2013 20/12/2013 03/01/2014 14/01/2014 23/01/2014 03/02/2014 12/02/2014 21/02/2014 04/03/2014 13/03/2014 24/03/2014 02/04/2014 11/04/2014 24/04/2014 06/05/2014 Information blackout – December’13, February’14, reflection on curve prices Mild winter, but Turkish gas supply interrupted Rising Cal ‘15 price - ?? 170 160 150 140 Month+1 Year+1 130 120 110 100 www.icis.com Information blackout: impact on economy, investments • Increases market risk • Causes important losses to both gas/electricity companies • Creates a highly unfair environment (some people may have inside access to BOTAS data while others do not) • Encourages questionable market practices • Acts as a disincentive to potential investors • Places BOTAS/ Turkey at a disadvantage to neighbouring EU countries which have started publishing information www.icis.com Where next from here? High hopes from BOTAS for: • A user-friendly, easilyaccessible EBB (in Turkish and English) publishing daily capacity, nominations, interruptions Waiting for “Chapter 15” • Turkey and EU should work towards opening the Energy Chapter (Ch.15) • Harmonise transparency practices that will establish Turkey as a reliable gas transit country • A transparently-set • Lays the groundwork for an balancing price attractive traded gas hub www.icis.com Conclusion • Transparency is not a luxury, but an absolute necessity as the EU examples show • Turkey has been struggling to provide information to market participants. Information blackouts lead to panic, growing risks • BOTAS/EPDK are in the process of setting up the EBB, but this platform has to be comprehensive and user-friendly • Publishing transparent information is inevitable as Turkey becomes a transit country and aims to establish itself as a traded gas hub www.icis.com Thank you! Aura Sabadus [email protected]