Transcript Slide 1

The Challenge Ahead
February 22, 2007
Presentation for Zero-to-Three Fact Finding Trip
Eva DeLuna Castro, Budget Analyst
[email protected] (512) 320-0228 x 103
Center for Public Policy Priorities
www.cppp.org
Outline
• Growing Needs/Needs of Zero to
Three
• Current programs and levels of
investment; likelihood of major
changes in 80th Session
• Long-term Challenge: Tax Reform
Center for Public Policy Priorities
www.cppp.org
Texas: A Young, Fast-Growing State
• Texas has 6.4 million children, second only
to California (9.7 million).
• Texas is almost tied with California in child
population growth from 2000 to 2005.
Our child population grew by 417,000, vs. 428,000 for CA
• Texas child pop. grew 7% from 2000-05,
behind GA (8.4%), NC (8.4%), FL (11%), AZ (14.7%), NV (20%).
• Children are 27.7% of the state’s residents.
Only Alaska (28.4%) and Utah (30.1%) are younger.
• By 2040, school enrollment projected to
double.
Center for Public Policy Priorities
www.cppp.org
With High Needs
• Almost one-fourth of Texas children live in
poverty (less than $17,170 for a family of 3)
• Another fourth live in homes that are
economically disadvantaged
• Highest percentage of children without
health insurance
• Limited English Proficiency students:
1996-97 = 514,139 (13.4%); 2006 = 711,237 (15.8%)
38% growth in the total, 18% growth in the rate
Center for Public Policy Priorities
www.cppp.org
A Closer Look at Texans Ages 0-3:
By Ethnicity and Income/Poverty, 2004-05
500,000
Other
White
Black
Hispanic
400,000
300,000
262,720
200,000
261,786
100,000
0
In Poverty
1 to 1.5 times 1.5 to 2 times
the poverty
line
2 to 3 times
More than 3
times
52% of Texas’ 1.5 million Zero to 3-Year Olds are
“Low Income” (Below 200% of Poverty)
Center for Public Policy Priorities
www.cppp.org
Texans Ages 0-3:
By Health Coverage and Income/Poverty, 2004-05
500,000
400,000
300,000
25%
23%
Uninsured
Public program
Privately insured
8%
22%
200,000
100,000
0
In poverty
1 to 2 times
poverty
2 to 3 times
poverty
More than 3
times
19% of Texas’ Zero to 3-Year Olds are uninsured. Medicaid/CHIP are
covering most low-income kids; employer-sponsored or other private
coverage reaches most kids at higher income levels.
Center for Public Policy Priorities
www.cppp.org
Texans Ages 0-3:
By Family Type, 2004-05
In a HusbandWife Family,
1.1 million,
75%
FemaleHeaded,
315,746 ,
21%
Center for Public Policy Priorities
MaleHeaded,
57,509 , 4%
56% of
Children Up to
Age 3 in
Female-Headed
Families Live In
Poverty,
Compared to
17% in TwoParent or 29%
in Male-Headed
Families
www.cppp.org
Enrollment Trends in Child Care
and Pre-Kindergarten
30
22.7
18.6
Percent
20
19.4
23.9
24.2
20.6
PreK: As % of 3 and 4 Year Olds
10
4.4
4.7
5.0
4.9
5.1
5.2
Child Care: As % of 0 to 12 Year Olds
0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
In 2005, 46% of Texas children served by the federal child care
block grant were under 4 years old. US Average: 40%.
Center for Public Policy Priorities
www.cppp.org
Pre-K, Early Education, and ECI
Comprehensive Services
200,000
150,000
Pre-Kindergarten
100,000
ECI Services (for 0-2 Year Olds)
50,000
Early Education
0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Early Education programs through school districts have seen
no enrollment growth, but ECI and Pre-K have grown
Center for Public Policy Priorities
www.cppp.org
Child Protection: Confirmed
Victims of Abuse/Neglect
30,000
37%
40%
25,027
22,247
18,473
16,990
16,106
14,480
11,977
12,983
9,982
10,000
14,914
20,000
20%
10%
0
Percent of All Victims
30%
13,368
Victims Age 3 or Below
30%
0%
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Zero-to-Three Age group is becoming a larger share of Texas’
children who are confirmed to be victims of abuse or neglect
Center for Public Policy Priorities
www.cppp.org
Child Protection: Foster Care
25
20
15.5
4,404
3,467
3,110
2,893
2,622
2,395
2,016
1,696
1,999
2,500
4,161
15
10
5
Percent of All Foster Care
22.1
1,830
Foster Children Age 2 or Below
5,000
0
0
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Zero-to-Three Age group also a larger part of Texas’
foster care caseload
Center for Public Policy Priorities
www.cppp.org
Texas Invests Less than Other States
State and Local Own-Source Revenue as a Percent of Personal Income, 2004
Local only: 10th (7.3%)
State only: 49th (6.7%)
1% of Personal Income = $7 B
Center for Public Policy Priorities
www.cppp.org
Percent of Gross State Product
Texas Spending Is Flat
16%
13.3%
14.3%
12%
State/local own-source revenue as % of GSP
8%
State own-source spending as % of GSP
4.5%
4.2%
4%
0%
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; Comptroller of Public Accounts
Center for Public Policy Priorities
www.cppp.org
What State Government Pays For
Cash Aid 1%
Highways 8%
Education 35%
Medicaid and
public assistance 24%
Natural Res.
& Parks 1%
Insurance
Trust
(Pensions, UI) 13%
Police &
HealthCorrections
2%
4%
Other - 6%
Hospitals 4%
Gov.
Admin. 2%
Debt Svc.
- 1%
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, State Government Finances series. Data
for 2004 for Texas, total expenditures (including trust) of $77.3 billion.
Center for Public Policy Priorities
www.cppp.org
What Local Government Pays For
Health 2%
Education 43%
Streets &
Hwys. 3%
Fire 2%
Natural
Resources &
Parks 2%
Housing &
Dev. - 2%
Police &
Corrections - 6%
Hospitals 6%
Gov. Admin. - 4%
Insurance
Trust - 1%
Other - 7%
Sewers & Trash
Disposal - 4%
Utilities (Water, Electric,
Gas) & Transit - 12%
Debt Service - 6%
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Government Finances series. Data for
2004 for Texas, total expenditures (including trust) of $85.7 billion.
Center for Public Policy Priorities
www.cppp.org
How Can There be a “Surplus” in a
Low-Spending State?
For 2006 and 2007, the Comptroller reports
$68.2 billion in general spending,
For 2008 and 2009, the Comptroller projects
$82.5 billion in general revenue
And
-
$82.5 B revenue, 08-09
68.2 B spent, 06-07
$14.3 billion “surplus”
Center for Public Policy Priorities
www.cppp.org
What a “Current Services” Proposal
Would Have Done with $14.3 Billion
Remaining,
$1.9 b, 13%
(public employee pay/
health ins./pension;
prisons; all other)
2008-09 Tax
Cuts, $3.9 b,
28%
"Truth in
Spending",
$2.5 b, 17%
(would restore state
parks funding; utility
discount; more)
HHS, $3.7 b,
26%
Center for Public Policy Priorities
Other K-12 ,
$0.6 b, 4%
Higher Ed.,
$1.7 b, 12%
www.cppp.org
What the Proposed State Budget
Would Do with the $14.3 Billion
Remaining:
$2.5 b, 17%
Medicaid/CHIP
Caseloads;
Education,
$2.1 b, 15%
Replace TIF &
CPS Rainy Day
Funds, $1.4 b,
Undo
10%
Deferrals,
$1.4 b, 10%
Center for Public Policy Priorities
2008-09 Tax
Cuts, $3.9b,
27%
41% of
revenue ($5.8
billion) would
not increase
state
spending
2010-11 Tax
Cuts, $3 b,
21%
www.cppp.org
What Would the Proposed 2008-09
Budget Do for Basic Services?
•K-12: Cuts to Student Success Initiative ($31.8 million
less); pre-K grants (-$18.4 m); Reading, Math & Science
Initiatives (-$3.4 m); Master Teacher Grants (-$2.7 m)
•Cover caseload increases in Medicaid and CHIP, but not
cost increases (need another $1.6 billion GR for that)
•Provide funds needed to keep Child Protective Services
reform at 2006-07 levels, but not to further reduce
caseloads, improve foster care/other provider rates, etc.
•Higher Ed: Texas Grants would reach only 47,852
students by 2009, a 22% drop from 61,067 in 2006
Center for Public Policy Priorities
www.cppp.org
What Else Would the Proposed Budget
for 2008-09 Do?
•Cut General Revenue Funding for community &
other public two-year colleges and 43 state
agencies (22 General Government & Regulatory, 5 Judiciary, 4 Public
Safety/ Corrections; 7 Natural Resources; 5 Business/Economic Development)
•Not completely make up for loss of federal funds for
child support enforcement
•Cut TANF cash assistance funding by 11 percent;
caseloads drop 4 percent (to 131,820 by 2009)
•Cuts child care slots for “working poor” families
from 104,439 in 2006 to 96,964 in 2009 (7% cut)
Center for Public Policy Priorities
www.cppp.org
Cost of Reducing School Property
Taxes Compared to New Revenue
Billions
Cost of property tax cut
$10
Revenue from special session tax changes
$7.6
$8
$7.3
$6
$6.9
$6.6
$4.1
$4.2
$4.4
$4.7
$4
$2
$2.1
$0.5
$0
2007
Center for Public Policy Priorities
2008
2009
$5.2 billion gap
2010
2011
$5.8 b gapwww.cppp.org
From a Taxpayer’s Point of View
Major State & Local Taxes in Texas, 2006
School District
28%
Other State
Taxes
21%
Property Tax
47%
City
7%
Sales Tax
32%
State
25%
County 7%
Local
7%
Special
District
5%
Sources: Comptroller of Public Accounts, Annual Property Tax Report; Cash Report.
Center for Public Policy Priorities
www.cppp.org
Taxes, From the State’s Point of View
State Tax Collections, 2006
(Total: $33.5 billion)
Motor Vehicle
Sales and
Rental
9%
Motor Fuels
9%
Sin
(Cigarette/Tobacco,
Alcohol)
4%
Franchise
8%
Sales
54%
Insurance
4%
Other
3%
Center for Public Policy Priorities
Gas/Oil
Production
10%
www.cppp.org
All Revenue, From the State’s Point of View
Texas State Government Revenue, 2006
(Total: $72 billion)
Taxes
46%
Other
6%
Interest/
Investment
Income
3%
Licenses,
Fees,
Permits,
Fines,
Penalties
8%
Center for Public Policy Priorities
Federal
Funds
34%
Lottery
2%
www.cppp.org
State Government Sources of Nonfederal Revenue
0%
1986
25%
32
50%
7
11
1996
38
6
2006
39
5
2009
39
Sales tax
Vehicle sales
Other taxes
Lottery
Center for Public Policy Priorities
75%
6
3
7
7
11
7
8
6
4
5
3 4
7
6
Franchise tax
Fuels taxes
Licenses/Fees
Other Nontax
6
9
13
3 4
6
100%
8
13
4 4
14
11
3
6
6
4
7
4
6
3 4
Oil/gas
Tobacco/Alcohol
Interest/land sales
www.cppp.org
Indicators of Ability to Pay
Per Capita Personal Income, 2005
State and Local Taxes as a Percent of
Personal Income, 2004
Texas
US Average
Texas
rank
$32,462
$34,586
27th
9.4%
10.4%
43rd
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Census Bureau.
Center for Public Policy Priorities
www.cppp.org
Households
with the
Pay the
Households
WithLowest
the LowestIncome
Income
Pay the
Highest Percentage
in Stateand
and Local
TaxesTaxes
Highest
Percentage
in State
Local
Percentage of Household Income Paid in Taxes
15%
14.2%
12%
9%
8.2%
7.0%
6.5%
6%
5.1%
3%
0%
<$21,797
$21,797-39,743
$39,743-61,734
$61,734-96,693
>$96,693
Household Income
Center for Public Policy Priorities
www.cppp.org
The Top One-Fifth of Texas Households
Pays Less Than Its Fair Share of Taxes
60%
Percent of total income
Percent of total taxes
51%
41%
40%
22%
20%
8%
9%
12%
15%
23%
16%
4%
0%
<$21,797
$21,797 to
39,743
$39,743 to
61,734
$61,734 to
96,693
Over $96,693
Household Income
Center for Public Policy Priorities
www.cppp.org