Transcript Transportation Infrastructure Projects: From Conception to

Transportation
Infrastructure Projects:
From Conception to
Implementation
By
Prof. S. L. Dhingra
Transportation Systems Engineering
IIT Bombay
The Stages
Conception:


Identification of project alternatives
Selection of the best alternative
Implementation:


Construction of the project
Operation and Maintenance
Classic Four-Stage Sequential Travel Demand Model
Trip Generation
Trip Distribution
Demand
Modal Split
Traffic Assignment
Considering
Environmental Protection
Economy
Supply
Travel Demand Modeling
Planning Variables
Study area
Internal zones
External zones
Plan Periods
Demographic and Socio-economic data
Protection of planning variables
Transport network
Origin and Destination Survey
TRIP GENERATION
• Trip Productions
• Aggregate Analysis
• Trip Attractions
• Disaggregate Analysis
• Zonal Models
• Household-based Models
• Regression Models
• Trip-rate Analysis
• Cross-classification Models
Trip Distribution


Growth Factor Method
Synthetic Approach
 Basic
Gravity Model
 BPR Gravity Model
 Entropy Maximizing Model
 Optimization Model
Modal Split Models
Trip
end Modal Split Model
Trip Interchange Modal Split Models
Synthetic Models
 Model derived from trip distribution
 Direct Demand
Analytical tools for modal split
 Diversion curve
 Regression analysis
 Discrete choice modal
Traffic Assignment Models
•All – Or – Nothing Assignment Method
•Equilibrium Assignment Methods
•Diversion Models
•Dynamic Assignment Models
•Combined Models
•Direct Demand Model
•Combined Distribution Assignment Model
•Combined Modal Split and Route Choice
Models
Example of Travel Estimation
Process
Pi
Production
1
47
2
66
3
110
Aj
Attraction
1
45
2
3
90
88
Tijmrsp
Tijmrs
(Income)
Edud.
2
Work
Other
6
1
High
3
Medium
5
9
Low
9
17
Tij
F
r
o
m
Z
o
n
e
s
1
2
3
1
10
18
19
47
2
3
30
5
32
4
65
66
110
88
223
45
40
90
Tijmr
Tijm
To Zones
Route A
5
15
Route B
17
40
Route C
3
Mode I
25
Mode II
Tijmrp
Trip Purpose
Education
Work
Other
3
12
2
17
Travel Demand Modeling
Other Approaches




Equilibrium Demand Modeling
Traveler as consumer of transit trips
Micro Economics - Utility
Maximization
Activity based analysis (Factors)






Individual Traveler Level
Type and Time of Activity
Community Level
Social Level
Destination by mode
Congestion
Rural Road Planning Process
Creation of road development plans
(alternatives) for achieving the objectives of
integrated rural development.

Allocating
priorities to rural areas under
consideration through the various plans
Qualification
of the benefits of alternatives
and subsequent comparison between
competing plans.
Selection
of the ‘optimal’ road development
plan through the above process.
Transport Priority Indices (TPI) in a
System’s Framework


The Need: Huge investments involved and priority needs
to be given to villages with higher population
and potential market surplus.
The proposals discussed are those initiated
by:
 the State Government of Karnataka
 the Indonesian rural roads study
group
 the ARD (Accelerated Rural
Development) road network of
Thailand
The Karnataka State Government
proposal for computing TPI
» Marking or index based system with highest marks
for villages with population greater than 1000 people.
» The indices are based on factors such as population,
village accessibility, local market, regulated market,
hospital, post office, school, and electrification.
» Each factor is assigned some marks and the priority is
based on the total marks.
» Drawback of method:- only few factors considered.
The Indonesian Rural Road Study
Group proposal for computing TPI
» 2 components for TPI - Requirement factors and
Provision factors.
» Requirement factors such as traffic flow, traffic
growth, population density, socio-economic benefits
expected, area of influence, and network
significance.
» Provision factors such as length of road, surface type,
surface condition, terrain, carriageway and formation
width, stability of drainage and culverts, condition of
bridges and major crossings
» TPI given by (Requirement factor score/Provision
factor score)*100.
ARD (Accelerated Rural
Development) road network
proposal of Thailand for TPI
» 2 Factors: Benefit and Cost factors.
» Benefit factors such as agricultural production,
cultivable land, water availability, population, existing
road condition, traffic volume, co-operation among
people, public utilities and private enterprises.
» Benefit and Cost scores worked out after giving
certain marks to all the factors.
» TPI = (Total Benefit Score) / (Total Cost Score)
Trip Generation & Distribution in a
Systems’ Framework
» Village with the highest TPI is identified and is
designated as the origin node.
» Destinations to which traffic is generated from the
origin node are also identified and are designated as
the destination nodes.
» Primary survey enables traffic estimation from the
village by different transportation modes as well as
distribution among various links.
» For inter zonal trip generation in the village region, a
gravity model is hypothesized and calibrated to
estimate the slope and intercept coefficients.
Organizational Setup for
Planning and Prioritizing


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

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Formation of Technical Advisory
Committee (TAC)
Preparation of proposal/tender document
Guidelines for selection of tenders
Pre-bid selection
Selection of PMC
Selection of contractors
Proof consultants
UNDP - Government of India
Project on Pro-poor
Globalisation
Aim:
Informed and participatory pro-poor
policy making, strategy and programme
formulation
Methodology:
Review of already conducted research on propoor and anti-poor impacts of globalisation
 Additional research and analysis
 Involvement of the poor in the policy dialogue
 Making information accessible to lay- person

Methodology for Selection of
Proposal





Organisations short-listed on the basis of initial
proposals
Selection of 3 top-ranked proposals based
on their presentations
Initial contract awarded to these 3
organisations to further refine and detail
their proposal, work plan and project
strategy.
Review of final proposals by a panel
Project awarded to the highest ranked proposal
Decision Making


Importance of decision making at every stage
during the project
Two important steps in the decision making
process



Course of action, which contains recognition,
discovery and contraction of ideas
Finding alternative strategies
Decision making is complex due to multiplicity of
attributes
Multiple Criteria Decision Making
(MCDM)


Importance in design and planning
Some MCDM techniques:
Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)
 Fuzzy Set Methodology
 Metagame Theory

Analytical Hierarchy Process

Basic principles of AHP
Hierarchic representation and decomposition
 Priority discrimination and synthesis
 Logical consistency

Series of pair-wise comparisons
carried out to obtain the preference
order
 Each decision alternative assigned a
weight
 Weights represent the alternatives’
desirability

Applications in fields like:
 conflict
analysis
 operations research
 portfolio selection
 bid evaluation
 capital budgeting
FUZZY SET ANALYSIS
Transportation planning involves Qualitative
and quantitative analysis including uncertain
Attributes and Characteristics.
Fuzzy Analysis takes care of this important
aspect of transportation planning.
FUZZY LOGIC
Fuzziness in Transportation Analysis
In the study of transportation problems, fuzziness is
found in many aspects of analysis
•



Perception of data and information,
Knowledge base,
Statement of goals and objectives, and
Problem definition.
General Procedure for Fuzzy
Analysis
Define fuzzy problem in detail
Identify all important variables and their ranges
Determine membership profiles for each variable
range
Determine rules(prepositional statements ), and
Select defuzzification methodology.
The following are the steps of the methodology:
1. Identifying the modes which will form attributes
(i,e., factors) of those coordinated modes.
2. Categorizing different interest groups.
3. Forming termed rating matrix, with columns as
modes and rows as factors.
4. Constructing of different rating matrices as per
the views of respective interest groups
5. Aggregation of rating matrices
6. Forming ‘ dominance’ matrix from the dominance
of one mode over the other mode
7. Calculating the % share of service by each mode
in a coordinated system.
The city of Calcutta, with five different mass transit
modes, is considered for the case study.
Coordinated Bus
Mode
Tram Surface
Underground
Transport Railway
Water
Transport
Abbreviation BS
TR
Wt
SR
UR
The attributes considered for each mode are:
Sl. No
FACTORS
1
Travel Time
2
Frequency
3
Comfort
4
Cost ( Fare )
5
Congestion ( Traffic )
6
Accident
7
Ease of handling babies and luggage’s
8
Suitability for handicapped and old people
9
Rating in terms of preferences
Rating matrix for commuters’ opinion:
Sl. No.
BS
TR
SR
UR
WT
1
0.70
0.61
0.75
0.81
0.65
2
0.77
0.69
0.71
0.69
0.66
3
0.61
0.70
0.69
0.83
0.72
4
0.95
0.79
0.68
0.76
.076
5
0.61
0.54
0.66
0.77
0.72
6
0.61
0.72
0.72
0.73
0.78
7
0.32
0.67
0.71
0.81
0.76
8
0.51
0.75
0.77
0.80
0.69
9
0.57
0.70
0.79
0.80
0.74
Rating Matrix for Planners Opinion
Sl. No.
BS
TR
SR
UR
WT
1
0.68
0.58
0.70
0.88
0.65
2
0.66
0.66
0.62
0.78
0.62
3
0.44
0.68
0.58
0.85
0.73
4
0.70
0.74
0.52
0.57
0.72
5
0.61
0.43
0.56
0.90
0.77
6
0.62
0.72
0.70
0.90
0.85
7
0.46
0.62
0.62
0.83
0.67
8
0.46
0.66
0.62
0.72
0.61
9
0.60
0.65
0.72
0.90
0.70
Rating Matrix for the Researcher’s Opinion
Sl. No.
BS
TR
SR
UR
WT
1
0.51
0.38
0.83
0.85
0.56
2
0.53
0.61
0.66
0.75
0.73
3
0.40
0.66
0.58
0.73
0.76
4
0.62
0.75
0.61
0.48
0.62
5
0.52
0.50
0.65
0.78
0.78
6
0.45
0.58
0.62
0.75
0.78
7
0.51
0.61
0.62
0.70
0.80
8
0.50
0.59
0.61
0.71
0.78
9
0.61
0.86
0.78
0.82
0.85
The aggregation matrices using pessimistic
aggregation and optimistic aggregation are:
Pessimistic Aggregate
Sl. No.
BS
TR
SR
UR
WT
1
0.51
0.38
0.70
0.81
0.56
2
0.53
0.61
0.62
0.69
0.62
3
0.40
0.66
0.58
0.73
0.72
4
0.62
0.74
0.52
0.48
0.62
5
0.52
0.43
0.56
0.78
0.72
6
0.42
0.58
0.62
0.73
0.78
7
0.32
0.61
0.62
0.70
0.67
8
0.46
0.59
0.61
0.71
0.61
9
0.61
0.65
0.72
0.80
0.70
Optimistic Aggregate
Sl. No.
BS
TR
SR
UR
WT
1
0.71
0.61
0.83
0.88
0.65
2
0.70
0.69
0.71
0.78
0.73
3
0.61
0.70
0.69
0.85
0.76
4
0.95
0.79
0.68
0.76
0.76
5
0.61
0.54
0.66
0.90
0.78
6
0.61
0.72
0.72
0.90
0.85
7
0.51
0.67
0.71
0.83
0.80
8
0.51
0.75
0.75
0.80
0.78
9
0.67
0.86
0.78
0.90
0.85
Dominance Matrix obtained for
Pessimistic Aggregation
Coordinated Modes
BS
TR
SR
UR
WT
BS
-
7
8
8
8.5
Row
Sums
31.5
TR
2
-
7
8
8
25
SR
1
2
-
8
6
17
UR
1
1
1
-
2
5
WT
0.5
1
3
7
-
11.5
Col.
Sums
4.5
11
19
31
24.5
90
Dominance Matrix for Optimistic Aggregation
Coordinated Modes
BS
TR
SR
UR
WT
BS
-
5
7
8
6
Row
Sums
26
TR
4
-
6
8
7
25
SR
2
3
-
9
8
22
UR
1
1
0
-
0.5
2.5
WT
3
2
1
8.5
-
14.5
Col.
Sums
10
11
14
33.5
21.5
90
Final Ranking and % share by each coordinated
modes by both the techniques are:
Ranking and % of modal share for Pessimistic Aggregation
Relative
Ranking
BS
TR
SR
UR
WT
5
4
3
2
1
12.2
21.1
34.5
27.2
% share by 5.0
coordinate
d modes
Total
100
Ranking and % of modal share for Optimistic
Aggregation
Relative
Ranking
BS
TR
SR
UR
WT
5
4
3
2
1
12.2
15.6
37.2
23.9
% share by 11.1
coordinate
d modes
Total
100
•The % modal shares among the co-ordinated modes
by both the methods are :
UR
WR
SR
TR
BC
Pessimistic Approach
34.5
27.2
21.1
12.2
5.0
Optimistic Approach
37.2
23.9
15.6
12.2
11.1
•This indicates the order of priority
•The approaches give the qualitative as well as
quantitative appraisal of the share of different mass
transit modes.
METAGAME ANALYSIS

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Player
Options
Strategy
Outcome
Stability Analysis
Unilateral Improvements
Inescapable Sanctions
Inescapable Improvements
Set theory logic
classical
game theory
METALEVEL
ANALYSIS
Metalevel
Analysis
Checking
the theory
by
experiment
Technique of
application
(analysis of
choice)
Application
Situation or conflict :- a ‘game’
Major decision makers :- identified as ‘players’
Specified no. of options with the player
A possible selection of options for a particular player :- his ‘strategy’
Situation where each player chooses a strategy :- ‘outcome’
Application of Metagame
Analysis


Case Study for implementation of
underground railway system in the
city of Calcutta
Conflict between the users and the
implementers regarding the fares
for underground railway
Stability Analysis
Conflicting condition
Choice values for
the conflicts
A
B
Stable
Solution
I. Implementers want to introduce UR.
They are reluctant to offer fare less than
the existing fare.
I 0011
1001
0
Commuters are interested to use UR and
also want less fare than existing one
C 1010
1010
0
II. Implementers are willing to introduce
UR and may or may not provide less fare
than the existing one
I 1001
1010
0
Commuters are reluctant to use UR if
the fare is not like the existing one.
C 1100
0011
0
III. Implementers are indifferent to
introduce UR and reluctant to offer fare
less than the existing one .
I 0011
1001
0
Commuters are willing to avail the
service of UR even the fare does not
go below the existing one.
C 0110
1100
1
ADVANTAGES


helps in the resolution of conflicts
between parties having a difference of
opinion.
a non-quantitative method of analysis
LIMITATIONS


quite complicated in case of multi player
and multi choice conditions
May not always lead to a stable solution
CASE STUDIES
The following case studies will be discussed:

Mumbai - Pune Expressway Project

The 50 Flyovers Project
(Mumbai Traffic Improvement Mega-Project)

Western Freeway Sea Link Project

Bandra - Worli Sea Link Project, etc.
SUMMARY



Traditional four stage Transportation Planning
methodology is discussed.
Fundamentals behind the various techniques
adopted in decision making for mega
transportation infrastructure projects are
discussed.
An insight is provided into the procedure
involved from conception to implementation
stage supported by case studies of various
transportation projects.
CONCLUSIONS



Projects should be well-conceived and
economically efficient, using latest tools for
decision analysis.
Decision analysis should be through PMC , TAC
as well as conflict resolution, for different stages
in the projects.
It is necessary to have appropriate institutional
set up for effective conception, planning,
prioritization, decision analysis, PMC/contractor
selection and effective implementation through
Q/A checks.
Thank You