Transcript No Slide Title

The Intellectual and Leadership Center of the Air Force
Develop America's Airmen Today ... for Tomorrow
Fundamentals of
Decision Support
Ms. LaShunda V. Lewis
March 4, 2010
Defense Financial Management &
Comptroller School
Ira C. Eaker Center for Professional
Development
Maxwell
Air Force Base, AL
Air University: The Intellectual and Leadership Center of the
Air Force
We make a difference…
one student at a time
Integrity - Service - Excellence
Outline
Develop America's Airmen Today ... for Tomorrow


Decisions, decision making and decision
support
The role of the financial manager in decision
support

Opportunities for more on decision support
 A decision support model
 Decision support tools

Summary
Air University: The Intellectual and Leadership Center of the Air Force
Integrity - Service - Excellence
Decision Making and Decision
Support
Develop America's Airmen Today ... for Tomorrow
To Understand Decision Support,
We Must Understand Decision-Making
Theodore Roosevelt: In any moment of decision the best thing you can do is the right
thing, the next best thing is the wrong thing, and the worst thing you can do is
nothing.
Margaret Thatcher: Standing in the middle of the road is very dangerous; you get
knocked down by the traffic from both sides.
Albert Einstein: We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used
when we created them.
Franklin D. Roosevelt: One thing is sure. We have to do something. We have to do the
best we know how at the moment...; if it doesn't turn out right, we can modify it as we
go along.
Yogi Berra: When you get to the fork in the road, take it.
Air University: The Intellectual and Leadership Center of the Air Force
Integrity - Service - Excellence
Decision Support
Develop America's Airmen Today ... for Tomorrow

For decision makers to make the best decisions
they must demand the best data

A lack of quality data and analysis leads to
suboptimal decisions

The majority of significant decisions have
resourcing implications

Those of us in the resourcing community are
responsible for providing quality analysis
Decision Support - a Core Competency of the FM Community
Air University: The Intellectual and Leadership Center of the Air Force
Integrity - Service - Excellence
Reaction vs. Decision
Develop America's Airmen Today ... for Tomorrow



Reaction – Response to some stimulus or event
Decision – Selecting a choice between
alternatives
Components of a decision
–
A set of alternatives or options
– Each alternative has subsequent consequences
Successful Decision Making is not a Simple Task
Air University: The Intellectual and Leadership Center of the Air Force
Integrity - Service - Excellence
Dealing with Complex Issues
Develop America's Airmen Today ... for Tomorrow



Uncertainties cause decision making
to be more complex
There are many techniques for
dealing with these uncertainties
Challenge…decision makers are subject to
their own biases
Air University: The Intellectual and Leadership Center of the Air Force
Integrity - Service - Excellence
Outline
Develop America's Airmen Today ... for Tomorrow


Decisions, decision making and decision
support
The role of the financial manager in decision
support

Opportunities for more on decision support
 A decision support model
 Decision support tools

Summary
Air University: The Intellectual and Leadership Center of the Air Force
Integrity - Service - Excellence
The Call for Effective Decision
Making and Decision Support
Develop America's Airmen Today ... for Tomorrow

“… leaders must make the tough decisions
that produce the best possible use of finite
resources and improve the efficiency and
effectiveness of our operations. Resource
stewardship, and the tradeoffs between cost
and performance, must become a part of
every conversation.”
Honorable Nelson M. Ford, ASA(FM&C)
Taken from 2007 Army Financial Statement
Effective Decision Making is Critical to our Nation’s Future
Air University: The Intellectual and Leadership Center of the Air Force
Integrity - Service - Excellence
Financial Advisors
Develop America's Airmen Today ... for Tomorrow
 Building/Strengthening Networks/Relationships
 Influencing Outcomes, Driving Decisions
 Engaging Proactively
 Analyzing Options/Developing Alternatives
 Looking Forward…Future Perspective
 Effectively Communicating
 Enhancing Value To
Decision-Making
What do you expect from your personal financial advisor??
Air University: The Intellectual and Leadership Center of the Air Force
Integrity - Service - Excellence
Decision Support Defined
Develop America's Airmen Today ... for Tomorrow
Decision Support is enabling
decision makers to make
informed decisions that better
utilize resources and improve
mission effectiveness.
Air University: The Intellectual and Leadership Center of the Air Force
Integrity - Service - Excellence
Seven Tips for Making
Good Decisions
Develop America's Airmen Today ... for Tomorrow

Identify and focus on the most important things

Don’t jump at the first feasible solution

Choose the option you really want – unless the
data doesn’t support you

Optimize the opportunities

Project the 2nd and 3rd order effects of your plan

Don’t limit your alternatives

Turn big decisions into a series of small ones
Air University: The Intellectual and Leadership Center of the Air Force
Integrity - Service - Excellence
Outline
Develop America's Airmen Today ... for Tomorrow


Decisions, decision making and decision
support
The role of the financial manager in decision
support

Opportunities for more on decision support
 A decision support model
 Decision support tools

Summary
Air University: The Intellectual and Leadership Center of the Air Force
Integrity - Service - Excellence
DFM&CS Courses
Develop America's Airmen Today ... for Tomorrow
•
Defense Financial Management Course (DFMC)
•
Defense Decision Support Course (DDSC)
Air University: The Intellectual and Leadership Center of the Air Force
Integrity - Service - Excellence
Defense Financial Management
Course
Develop America's Airmen Today ... for Tomorrow


Designed to Develop or Enhance:
–
Decision support skill sets
–
Leadership and communication skills
–
Awareness of the multi-faceted financial
management community
–
Strategic Orientation
–
Support for Contingency Operations
Target audience GS12, O4 and up & E8
and above
Air University: The Intellectual and Leadership Center of the Air Force
Integrity - Service - Excellence
Defense Decision Support Course
Develop America's Airmen Today ... for Tomorrow

Focuses on concepts to understand Decision
Support
–
–
–
–
–
Defines Decision Support and the Decision Support
Model
Describes Analysis Tools and Techniques
Reinforces Learning through Practical Exercises
Includes Graduates of PME and PMCS
Students should already possess a broad knowledge
of the DoD FM environment, a strategic perspective
 Target audience GS12, O4 and up & E8 and above
Air University: The Intellectual and Leadership Center of the Air Force
Integrity - Service - Excellence
Outline
Develop America's Airmen Today ... for Tomorrow


Decisions, decision making and decision
support
The role of the financial manager in decision
support

Opportunities for more on decision support
 A decision support model
 Decision support tools

Summary
Air University: The Intellectual and Leadership Center of the Air Force
Integrity - Service - Excellence
Decision Support Model
Develop America's Airmen Today ... for Tomorrow
Identify
the Issue
Analyze
the Issue
Evaluation
Decision
Support
Implementation
Decision Made
Develop
Alternatives
Evaluate
Alternatives
Make a
Recommendation
Air University: The Intellectual and Leadership Center of the Air Force
Integrity - Service - Excellence
Decision Support Model
Develop America's Airmen Today ... for Tomorrow
Identify the Issue
To positively
affect decision
making
you have to do
your part before
the decisions
are made.
Analyze the Issue
Develop Alternatives
Evaluate Alternatives
Make Recommendation
Air University: The Intellectual and Leadership Center of the Air Force
Integrity - Service - Excellence
Identify the Issue
Develop America's Airmen Today ... for Tomorrow

Arguably, the most important part of decision
support

Provides structure to the problem
–
–
Indicates what is to be accomplished
“How do we best…”

Ensures the decision maker and the decision
support team are working toward the same
objective

Sets the stage for success
Establishes Focus on Desired End State
Air University: The Intellectual and Leadership Center of the Air Force
Integrity - Service - Excellence
Issue Identification Tools
Develop America's Airmen Today ... for Tomorrow
Brainstorming
Id e n tify th e Is s ue
WHY?
Why?
Why?
Why? Why?
An a lyze th e Is s ue
Mind Mapping
Fishbone Diagram
D e ve lop Alte rn a tives
E va lua te Alte rna tives
M a k e a R e c om m e nd a tion
Air University: The Intellectual and Leadership Center of the Air Force
Integrity - Service - Excellence
Develop America's Airmen Today ... for Tomorrow

Brainstorming is a method for generating ideas
Use when:
–
–
–

ROE: No criticizing!
–
–

Creativity & quantity of new ideas is the focus
Build on the ideas of others
Conduct: Spontaneous, Round Robin or Written
–

Identifying the Issue
Determining Evaluation Criteria
Developing Alternatives
Record and display ideas to energize other ideas
Prioritize ideas, sort into common themes
Air University: The Intellectual and Leadership Center of the Air Force
Integrity - Service - Excellence
Five Why’s (more or less)
Develop America's Airmen Today ... for Tomorrow

Repeatedly asking “Why” can help you
determine the real issue.
–
–
–
A very simple tool, easy to use.
Useful when the issue involves human interactions
Ask why. If the answer is not the root issue, repeat
process.
"If you don't ask the right questions, you don't get the right
answers. A question asked in the right way often points to its own
answer. Asking questions is the ABC of diagnosis. Only the
inquiring mind solves problems." -- Edward Hodnett
Air University: The Intellectual and Leadership Center of the Air Force
Integrity - Service - Excellence
Don’t Judge too Quickly…
Develop America's Airmen Today ... for Tomorrow
Air University: The Intellectual and Leadership Center of the Air Force
Integrity - Service - Excellence
Issue Analysis Tools
Develop America's Airmen Today ... for Tomorrow
Id e n tify th e Is s ue
An a lyze th e Is s ue
Quantitative Tools
Time Series Plots
Scatter Plots
Correlation & Regression
Control Charts
Descriptive Statistics
Pareto Chart
Decision Trees
D e ve lop Alte rn a tives
E va lua te Alte rna tives
Qualitative Tools
Flow Charting
The “Q” Box™
Cause & Effect
Force Field Analysis
M a k e a R e c om m e nd a tion
Air University: The Intellectual and Leadership Center of the Air Force
Integrity - Service - Excellence
Analyze the Issue
Develop America's Airmen Today ... for Tomorrow





Attempt to further understand the issue
Break the issue down into subordinate parts
Identify external factors, influencers and
their relationships
Diversity in the analytical team helps
expand the analysis
Need to recognize time available for
analysis
Air University: The Intellectual and Leadership Center of the Air Force
Integrity - Service - Excellence
Analysis Tools
Develop America's Airmen Today ... for Tomorrow

Flowchart a process or service
–

Pareto charts
–

Where should you focus your effort?
Decision Trees
–

Aids in understanding the process
Shows likely impact of different scenarios
The Q-box
–
Systematically dissecting the issue
Air University: The Intellectual and Leadership Center of the Air Force
Integrity - Service - Excellence
Flow Chart Example: Getting
Up
Develop America's Airmen Today ... for Tomorrow
Delay
Hit Snooze
For 5 Min.
Button
No
Start
Alarm
Ready to
Rings
Get Up?
Yes
Get
Up
End
Air University: The Intellectual and Leadership Center of the Air Force
Integrity - Service - Excellence
Analyzing the Issue:
The “Q” Box™
Develop America's Airmen Today ... for Tomorrow
Ask
Time
People
Flexibility
what is the
opportunity cost of
staying home?
else can we do?
is the boy’s tuition
due?
should we decide now
or later?
is the decision maker?
Who
What
are other options
available?
When
does the NCAA finals
start ?
Where
other family members
are impacted?
do we like to go?
do we get the extra
money?
is this such a big deal?
Why
How
Money
much time do we
have to celebrate?
should I finance this
decision?
Air University: The Intellectual and Leadership Center of the Air Force
Integrity - Service - Excellence
Decision Support Tools
Develop America's Airmen Today ... for Tomorrow
Id e n tify th e Is s ue
The first four tools plus…
An a lyze th e Is s ue
D e ve lop Alte rn a tives
Develop
Evaluation
Criteria &
Alternatives
E va lua te Alte rna tives
Juxtapose Attributes, Analogies and
Benchmarking
M a k e a R e c om m e nd a tion
Air University: The Intellectual and Leadership Center of the Air Force
Integrity - Service - Excellence
29
Develop Alternatives
Develop America's Airmen Today ... for Tomorrow

Identify multiple plausible alternatives

Answers: Who, What, When Where, Why and How

Characteristics

Suitable - accomplish mission and meets guidance

Feasible - accomplish mission given constraints

Acceptable - balance cost with objectives

Distinguishable - significantly different from other COAs

Complete - planned out
Air University: The Intellectual and Leadership Center of the Air Force
Integrity - Service - Excellence
Develop Evaluation Criteria
& Alternatives
Develop America's Airmen Today ... for Tomorrow
Juxtapose Attributes
1. Pick pairs of attributes associated with
the issue (from previous steps)
2. Place each attribute on one of the axes
of a nine unit grid box
3. Consider alternatives that incorporate the
various degrees and combinations of the
attributes being displayed
 Example: Technical Complexity & money
Air University: The Intellectual and Leadership Center of the Air Force
Integrity - Service - Excellence
Develop Evaluation Criteria &
Alternatives (continued)
Develop America's Airmen Today ... for Tomorrow
• Is this a good
criterion for
alternative
evaluation?
• Do they matter?
• Can I gather
data about these
attributes?
∞
Technical ability
Ask the following
questions about
your attributes or
evaluation
criteria:
Take the
Subway
Repair
Current
Vehicle
Buy a
Helicopter
Take the
Bus
Carpool
Buy a New
Car
Ride Bike
Obtain a
Chauffer
Service
Walk
0
Cost
Air University: The Intellectual and Leadership Center of the Air Force
Integrity - Service - Excellence
∞
Evaluate Alternatives
Develop America's Airmen Today ... for Tomorrow

Establish evaluation criteria prior to alternative
development
 At least 3 Evaluation Criteria
 Weighted and Non-Weighted
 Generally along these dimensions





People
Money
Material
Time
Risk/Flexibility
Prioritize Criteria Based on Decision Maker’s Guidance
Air University: The Intellectual and Leadership Center of the Air Force
Integrity - Service - Excellence
Decision Support Tools
Develop America's Airmen Today ... for Tomorrow
Id e n tify th e Is s ue
An a lyze th e Is s ue
D e ve lop Alte rn a tives
E va lua te Alte rna tives
M a k e a R e c om m e nd a tion
Evaluation Matrix
Lean 6σ, BCA, etc.
Air University: The Intellectual and Leadership Center of the Air Force
Integrity - Service - Excellence
Make a Recommendation
Develop America's Airmen Today ... for Tomorrow


Communication and briefing skills
KISS principle
–
Be comprehensive, but focus on essentials
–
Know the personality of the decision maker
–
Consider what you want to show and what
you want to hold in back-up
Make sure you ask
for a decision!!!!
Air University: The Intellectual and Leadership Center of the Air Force
Integrity - Service - Excellence
Decision Support Model
Develop America's Airmen Today ... for Tomorrow
Identify
the Issue
Analyze
the Issue
Evaluation
Decision
Support
Implementation
Decision Made
Develop
Alternatives
Evaluate
Alternatives
Make a
Recommendation
Air University: The Intellectual and Leadership Center of the Air Force
Integrity - Service - Excellence
Observations Regarding
Decision Support
Develop America's Airmen Today ... for Tomorrow




Providing true decision support is not easy
Using decision support requires commitment
to making a difference
Timing is everything – Often the decision
maker won’t ask for decision support
A good recommendation in a timely fashion
is better than a perfect recommendation
after-the-fact
Air University: The Intellectual and Leadership Center of the Air Force
Integrity - Service - Excellence
DS - It Ain’t Always Easy
Develop America's Airmen Today ... for Tomorrow
Air University: The Intellectual and Leadership Center of the Air Force
Integrity - Service - Excellence
Questions?
Develop America's Airmen Today ... for Tomorrow
The Defense Financial
Management &
Comptroller School
Air University: The Intellectual and Leadership Center of the Air Force
Integrity - Service - Excellence