Transcript DEMIFER: Demographic and migratory flows affecting

Phil Rees, University of Leeds
Presentation at the ESPON UK Network Workshop,
Targeting Analysis on Migration and Economy
1115-1515, 13 May 2009
MWB Business Exchange
10 Greycoat Place, London SW1 P 1SB
The DEMIFER project team
 NIDI (co-ordinator) (Netherlands)
 Joop de Beer, Nicole van der Gaag, Rob van der Erf, Peter Ekamper
 UNVIE (Austria)
 Heinz Fassmann, Ramon Bauer
 IOM/CEFMR (Poland)
 Marek Kupiszewski, Dorota Kupiszewska
 Nordregio (Sweden)
 Daniel Rauhut, Joanna Roto, Susan Brocket
 University of Leeds (United Kingdom)
 Phil Rees, John Stillwell, Peter Boden, Adam Dennett
 NEAA (Netherlands)
 Andries de Jong, Mark ter Veer
 CNR (Italy)
 Frank Heins
Aims of the project
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to determine how distinctive are current trends in migration,
fertility, and mortality and how they affect differences across
regions in population growth, the size of the working age
population and the ageing of the population.
to forecast how future developments in migration, fertility
and mortality will affect population growth and changes in the
age structure in different types of regions.
to analyse the extent to which the labour force in different
types of regions will change due to increases in natural growth,
internal migration, international migration and participation
rates.
to evaluate which policy options could achieve increases in
natural growth, migration and labour force participation.
to review the extent to which the effects of internal
migration, migration between European countries and
migration to Europe compensate or reinforce each other.
to assess the future effects of climate change on migration
flows within, between and into countries and regions.
Tasks
 Assembly of a database
 Analysis of demographic
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regimes
A summary typology
Three migration streams
(internal, inter-state,
extra-Europe)
Analysis of labour force
participation and
employment rates
Analysis of the older
population
 Projection of
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populations using a
multiregional projection
model
Reference scenarios
Policy scenarios
Assessment of impact of
policy scenarios on
regional competitiveness
and regional cohesion
Case studies of processes
in selected regions
Demographic typology
Type
Name
Regions
Demographic profile
1
Young Potentials
16
Young age structure, positive natural
increase, positive net migration
2
Euro Standard
85
Slightly older than average age structure,
small natural decrease, positive net
migration
3
Family Potentials
55
Slightly younger than average age structure,
high natural increase & growth
4
Challenge of Decline
31
Negative natural increase and net
migration, depopulation, ageing
5
Transitions
59
Varied components, slight population
decline
6
Euromediterranean
31
Older populations, natural decrease but
with greater net migration
7
Specials (Outliers)
7
High share in young working ages; low
share in 65+
Projection model: migration structures
Migration structure incorporated into the MULTIPOLES population projection model
Destinations
EU
EEA
Origins
EU
EEA
ROW
Austria
Austria
Belgium
…
Sweden
UK
Iceland
…
Switzerland
Extra-Europe
Types of migration flow
Belgium
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Sweden
UK
ROW
Iceland
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Inter-regional migration within country
Inter-country migration within Europe
Countries with no NUTS 2 regions
Immigration from Rest of the World
Emigration to the Rest of World
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EU
EEA
ROW
Switzerland Extra-Europe
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27 countries
4 countries
~200 countries
MULTIPOLES projection model modules
 Scenarios input indicators for fertility, mortality,
internal migration, inter-country migration, extraEuropean immigration, extra-European emigration
 Population projection engine for 31 countries and ~280
NUTS2 regions
 Age groups extended to 100+
 Projected population by age and sex multiplied by
labour force participation rates
 Labour force multiplied by employment rates
 Employed multiplied by productivity indicators
Reference scenarios
 Population base ~ 2005 with
demographic rates/flows for period
around 2005, e.g. 2003-7
 Three reference scenarios:
1. Status quo projection
2. No migration projection (natural increase only)
3. Free movement within Europe but no extra-
Europe migration
Policy Scenarios
Policy scenarios linked to component trends and policies
Policy scenarios: ideas about levels and distributions
Next steps
 Full details of the topics covered in this presentation
and future plans are given in the DEMIFER Interim
Report
 The Interim Report will be made available after
scrutiny by the ESPON 2013 Monitoring Committee on
the web site:
http://www.espon.eu/mmp/online/website/content/p
rogramme/1455/2233/2236/2241/index_EN.html