Transcript Document

Mainstreaming adaptation to
climate in the Caribbean
MACC
Roger S. Pulwarty
NOAA
University of Colorado
[email protected]
“If we are not careful we will end up where we are going”
Characteristics of small island environments
• Ecological/environmental characteristics
• Geographical characteristics
• Socio-economic characteristics
• Historical and political characteristics
Caribbean Region
Freshwater lens typical of small, low-lying carbonate islands showing
disruption of the freshwater/saltwater interface by pumping wells
Countries
Internal renewable water
resources per capita (cubic
metres per year), 2000.
Belize
69565
Barbados
303
Antigua y Barbuda
770
Domin ica
.
Grenada
.
Guyana
281542
Jamaica
3640
Trinidad
3869
Haiti
1,473
World To tal
7,122
Renewable Water Resources in Selected Caribbean States
Root causes include:
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Limited communication and collaboration between various sectors; fragmented
approach to environmental management
Weak institutional arrangements
Poor-enforcement of existing legislation & regulations
Limited understanding of the environmental impacts and economic losses consequent
upon improper waste disposal
Limited human resource availability
Weak agricultural extension: Poor agricultural practices
Limited information on alternative practices
Limited investments in best practices for waste treatment and disposal
Lack of public awareness and education
Inefficient water use
Lack of knowledge or culture of water conservation
Service cost recovery schemes and market practices that do not encourage conservation
Population growth, urbanisation
Rural/urban economic inequities
Inadequate development planning
Non-existent, inadequate, or unreliable data
Assessment: What do we know and how well do we
know it?
Sensitivity of bio-geophysical system
Degree of social vulnerability
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Risk - physical and natural systems
TAR
Exposure
Social and economic drivers and conditioning factors
Existing Adjustment/Adaptive Capacity
AR4
AR4
The Asipu
A group of priests in the Tigris-Euphrates valley
2500-3000 BC
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Hazard identification
Data collection and analysis
Generation of alternatives
Report creation
Mainstreaming….
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GOAL: to develop usable decision support information and
tools to assist civic and business leaders in making critical
decisions to mitigate climate hazards in regions of high
consequence
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OBJECTIVES: to adapt and advance vulnerability
assessment methods that explicitly incorporate uncertainty
and risk into system performance, technology assessment
and investment strategies
Integrated approach to climate risk management
Resources
Vulnerability
Capability
Physical/material
What hazards,skills,
productive resources
exist?
Social/Organizational
What are the relations
and organizations among
people?
Behavioral/Incentives
How does the community
view its ability to create
change?
Capabilities and vulnerabilities matrix
(Anderson and Woodrow, 1989)
CARICOM: The recipient as manager
• Antigua & Barbuda; The Bahamas; Barbados; Belize; Dominica; DR;
Grenada; Guyana; Jamaica; St. Kitts and Nevis; St. Lucia; St. Vincent
& the Grenadines; Trinidad & Tobago)
• Focus on the integration of climate variability and change concerns
into planning and practices of highly vulnerable sectors (tourism,
water, fisheries and agriculture) and the line agencies that support
them. Disasters Meteorological extreme events
• Integrate into existing approaches: IWM, ICZM
Elements of adaptive management
• Recognition of scientific and management complexity and uncertainty
/with practitioners
• Directive and/or need for action
• Implement management actions to address resource problems as
experiments
• Monitor and evaluate effects of action/experiments (what works, what
does not)
• Develop integrated models for watershed interactions, legal and
cultural requirements etc.
• Develop experiments in a participatory process involving a key parties
(transactions costs)
Are small states different?
Hurricane Andrew vs. Hurricane Gilbert
Coun t ry
Ag.
P ro d.
%GDP
FPI
1 9 97
% of
1 9 89-9 1
API
1 9 97
% of
8 9-9 1
Fertilizer
change
f rom av g.
8 0-9 8
I rrig ated
%
Arabl e
Lan d
1 9 97(8 0)
Forest
Annua l
%
change
1 9 90-9 5
Tour
Resid
ratio
1 9 90
Antigu a/Ba rbud a
4 .2
9 8 .1
9 8 .6
.
..
0 .0
3 .6
Bah amas
.
1 4 3. 6
1 4 8. 5
0 .2 5
..
-2 .6
5 .6
Ba rbados
5 .8
1 0 5. 7
9 7 .2
0 .5 5
5 .9(5 .9)
..
1 1 .0
Beliz e
2 0 .5
1 6 8. 0
1 5 3. 5
2 .5 3
3 .4(1 .9)
-0 .3
Domin ica
1 7 .7
9 7 .5
8 5 .2
1 .0 0
..
0 .0
0 .9
Gr enad a
1 2 .2
9 2 .7
8 9 .7
.
..
0 .0
1 .2
Guyan a
3 6 .0
1 9 3. 9
1 7 5. 2
2 .4 5
2 6 .2(2 5 .3)
..
Jamaica
7 .2
1 1 8. 0
1 1 8. 6
1 .2 5
1 2 .0(1 3 .8)
-7 .2
0 .5
St.Kitts/Nevis
5 .9
1 3 2. 2
1 1 8. 6
-0 .1 9
..
0 .0
0 .2
St. Lucia
1 6 .2
6 0 .5
1 1 3. 1
1 5 .9
1 7 .6(5 .9)
-3 .6
1 .7
St.Vincent/Gr en.
1 9 .3
8 2 .2
7 7 .2
0 .7 6
9 .1(1 0 .0)
0 .0
0 .6
Tr inidad /Tobago
Car ibbean
I sland s
2 .0
1 0 2. 6
8 6 .9
1 .3 4
1 8 .0(1 8 .1)
-1 .5
0 .2
1 3 .9
8 0 .7
8 1 .7
0 .5 9
1 8 .2(1 7 .5
-1 .7
Selected trends in agriculture, food production, forestry and tourism in the Caribbean
(Data is for 1999 unless noted otherwise)
Top 20 countries “vulnerable” to natural hazards depending on index
Rank
Damage
>1%GNP
1970-89
1 Vanuatu
228
2 Nic
207
3 Bfaso
191
4 Domin
119
5 CookI
92
6 Chad
84
7 Boliv
81
8 St. Lucia
67
9 Yemen
67
10 Jam
64
11 Comor
61
12 Ethiop
61
13 El Sal
52
14 Ban
50
15 Tong
50
16 Toke
50
17 Maurita
41
18 Mauriti
41
19 Ant&Bar
38
20 St. V/Gr
36
Population
affected%
1970-96
Vanuatu 727
Ban
539
Tong
532
Ind
510
Bah
491
Maurita 487
Ant&Bar 431
Bots
418
Mozam 361
Gamb
339
Swazi
304
Fiji
296
Domin 262
SaoT&P 245
Chad
242
Sen
233
Gren
228
China
223
SolomI 214
Niger
206
Number of disasters
relative to land area
1970-96
Tonga
1.00
St,Vin 0.67
Barb
0.46
St.K/N 0.45
Mald
0.44
St.Lucia 0.37
Domin 0.35
Ant&Bar 0.30
Gren
0.29
Mauriti 0.22
Como
0.16
SaoT&P 0.17
CapeV 0.13
Re
0.09
Kiri
0.09
Vanuatu 0.08
Jam
0.06
Fiji
0.06
Gamb
0.05
TnT
0.05
Data from
UNDRO 2000
Terminology
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Hazard- A potentially damaging physical event, phenomenon and/or human
activity which may cause the loss of life, injury, property damage, social and
economic disruption and environmental degradation
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Vulnerability-Set of conditions and processes resulting from physical, social,
economic, environmental factors (and development decisions) which increase
the susceptibility of community (or project) to the impact of hazards
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Risk-Probability of harmful consequences and expected loss resulting from
interaction between natural or human hazards and vulnerable conditions. Risk
if a function of hazard and vulnerability
Vulnerability ….. f(exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity)
Risk…………….. f(V,H)
Formalizing vulnerability assessment
The vulnerability of a sector relying on a particular
ecosystem service in an area under a certain scenario at a
certain point in time.
Potential impacts are a function of exposure and sensitivity (2)
Therefore, vulnerability is a function of potential impacts and adaptive capacity(3):
V(es, x, s, t) = ƒ( E(es, x, s, t), S(es, x, s, t), AC(es, x, s, t) )
(1)
• PI(es, x, s, t) = ƒ( E(es, x, s, t),S(es, x, s, t) ) (2)
• V(es, x, s, t) = ƒ( PI(es, x, s, t), AC(es, x, s, t) ) (3)
where V = vulnerability, E = exposure, S = sensitivity, AC = adaptive capacity and
PI = potential impact, es =ecosystem service, x = a grid cell, s = a scenario, t = a
time slice
(Sref) is
• calculated, giving a stratified value with a 0–1 range for ecosystem service sensitivity in the gri
cell:
Sstr(es, x, s, t) = S(es, x, s, t) / Sref(es, enc, x, s, t)
where Sstr = stratified sensitivity,
S = sensitivity Sref = highest achieved ecosystem service value,
es = ecosystem service, x = a grid cell, s = a scenario, t = a time slice
enc = an environmental class
The potential impact index then is:
PI(es, x, s, t) = Sstr(es, x, s, t)
when vulnerability maps based on this framework depict
problematic regions, further attention must be
directed to these regions to analyse their adaptive
capacity at different scales (e.g.household,municipality,
province, country)
Dimensions of vulnerability assessment
• Physical vulnerability-analyze impacts of events on assets such as
building, infrastructure, agriculture
• Social Vulnerability- estimate impacts of events on highly vulnerable
groups such as the poor, coping capacity, status institutional structure designed
to help coping, awareness of risk
• Economic vulnerability-potential impacts of hazards on economic assets
and processes (business interruption, secondary effects)
• Environmental vulnerability-Degraded environmental quality limits the
natural resilience to hazard effects and reduces environmental buffering of
effects
Hazard Information
Past incidence:Maps, factors
affecting occurrence
Element of Concern
Critical facilities, natural resources,
agriculture, population,
development (existing./proposed)
Site and Feature Characteristics
Specific damage/loss estimate
Physical suite characteristics,
structural strength, content exposure
Hazard
Assessment
What are the hazards?
What severity?
What return periods?
Who, what are
vulnerable
Why?
Formulation of
desired risk
reduction strategy
From hazards to
vulnerability to risk
Vulnerability
Assessment
Risk
Assessment
What is the expected
degree of loss?
Economic Analysis
Of risk reduction
options
Identification of
risk reduction options
Hazard
Vulnerability
EVENT
PREPAREDNESS
Socio-economic National and
Political Economy International Policy
STATUS
Return period,Duration
Magnitude,Seasonality
Uncertainty
Hurricanes
D
I
Flood
Drought
Earthquakes
Volcanic
Activity
Landscape
S
A
S
T
Disease
E
R
Self protectionIncome Distribution
(location, building
Livelihood
quality
Opportunity
Generation & allocation
surplus
Social Protection
(Building regulations
level of scientific
knowledge/use)
Social power&control
Debt crises
Environmental degradation
RESILIENCE?
Strength of assets
GENDER
Household
Security,Nutrition
CULTURE//STATE
Income,Assets Institutional
Discrimination
Support
Recovery of
livelihood
Impacts of previous
interventions
- Regional
- Local
Biases, Training
HEALTH Social precaution/
Infrastructure, Individual robustness
Household activities,Access to reliable
potable water, treatment
__________________________________________________________________________________________________
Pulwarty and Riebsame, 1997; Blaikie et al 1994 others
Robustness Strategies:
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Knowledge and information
– Scientifically credible
– Socially robust
• Political legitimacy
• Practical utility
• Effectiveness
• To what extent are probabilistic estimates about the future climate
impacts robust?
(given inability so far to include ENSO, AMO others)
Uncertainties in responding to climate
change risks
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Uncertainty about cross-scale conditioning factors and impacts
– Local-national-regional-global factors
– Unpredictable changes in patterns of vulnerability over length of time over
which risks are being calculated
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Uncertainty about choice, alternatives and pathways for decision making
– Economic tradeoffs vs. hedging
– Traditional emphases on rapid post-disaster recovery rather than longerterm vulnerability reduction;
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Uncertainty related to magnitude, timing, duration, frequency and location of
climatic hazards
Climate change projections in the Caribbean region
Trends
• Avg. annual air temp 1 F
• Sea level rise 10 cm (3.9 ins) per 100 yrs
• Generally drier conditions
Scenarios for Future Climate
• Drier mid-year, wetter end of year
• Ocean surface warming
• Salt water intrusion into freshwater
• Some models suggest more persistent ENSO-like conditions and less but
more intense more intense tropical storms (5-10% windspeed
Where does climate variability
come from?
• NAO
• TA
• ENSO
Non-ENSO or Atlantic multi-decadal mode of global sea surface temperature(SST) 1870-2000.
(A) spatial correlations between first EOF and Atlantic SSTs; (B) temporal reconstruction of
variability averaged over the rectangle in A
Precipitation
• Wet (May–Oct) and Dry Season (Nov– April) changes
in Caribbean precip. in the last 50 years are generally
opposite, particularly in the northern parts of the region.
• The changes amount to a ~10–20% increase in the dry
season, and about a similar-sized decline in the wet season.
• Climate model simulations with a suite of GCM’s run
with observed SST broadly show the same pattern of
precipitation changes.
• Different SST simulations suggest that Atlantic SST
variability is as important as changes in the Indo-Pacific
to rainfall variability in the GCR
• Large decadal variability in SST, in both observed and
simulated rainfall, and in the spatial pattern of the rainfall
changes may make attribution to anthropogenic climate
change difficult.
Variability and change:
• Events vs. sequences of events, change
• Entry-points into existing plans and models
• Data reliability and baseline definitions
Average annual GDP growth rate after major disasters
and average of previous three years
Ave rage annual GDP Gr ow th Rate after m ajor disas te rs and ave r age of pr e vious thr e e ye ar s in the
Car ibbe an 1970-97
6
5
%GDP growth
4
3
2
1
0
Avg -123
0
1
Year Befor e/Duri ng /After
2
3
Average annual growth in long stay tourist arrivals before, during and
after hurricane disasters Caribbean 1970-1997
Average annual grow th in long stay tourist arrivals before during and fter disasters in the
Caribbean 1970-97
12
10
8
%b growt h in tourist arrivals
6
4
2
0
Avg-123
0
1
-2
-4
Years before/during/after
2
3
Average annual Trade Balance (%imports) before during and after
major disasters1970-1997
Avg-123
0
Trade balance % avg imports
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
-70
-80
Ye ars Be fore/During/Afte r
0
1
2
3
Agricultural GDP Anguilla and Montserrat 1980-97
Agricultural GDP (constant prices)
Anguilla and$)
Montserrat1980-97
(constant
10
Ang ui lla
9
Montser rat
8
million EC$
7
6
5
4
3
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
Year
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
Environmental
Vulnerability Indices for
Tobago
Trinidad “Agriculture” operations chain
Cultivation
•Planting schedule
•Pesticide and
herbicide applications
•IPM application
•Irrigation timing
•Runoff/erosion control
•Fire management
Harvest operations
and transport
•Initiation of harvest
•Completion of harvest
•Selective harvesting
•Road repair
•Soil compaction and
field conditions
•Fire management
Milling and
production
Marketing and
Shipping
•Milling initiation
•Product refinement •Likelihood of
meeting quota
&storage
•Shipping timing
(delays etc)
• storage
requirement
•
Secondary economies impact, minimizing
environmental impacts, land-use/settlements
Guyana
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Sea wall overtopping
Flood frequency and design risk
Impacts on coastal vegetation
Erosion and inundation
Land Value and Land use
Infrastructure
Sanitation and potable water
Global Sea-level rise Projections
• 2 mm/yr
• 5 mm/yr
• 9 mm/yr
Local Sea-level rise Projections (1990-2020)
• ASLR1=213 mm
• ASLR2=303 mm
• ASLR3=423 mm
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Two concerns
• High national adaptive capacity can mask great
internal variations in vulnerability
• Despite a high adaptive capacity on paper
knowledge, technological capacity, expertise, are
not always put to use
….viewed from Information chain
Improved
Decision
Process
••Framing
the
question
Climate
Network
Types
Place-based
Dialog,
ofnot
simulations
design
models
two
and
Distributed
••Synthesis
tools
&
Platforms
Scale
sector-based
monologues
scenarios
dissemination
••Data
assimilation
&
• User
Social
Appropriate
Temporal
oriented
trendsmix of
• New
technologies
visualization
•
Demographics
• Scenarios
observations
• Spatial and
•• Complexity
models
Energy
use
• probabilistic
Quality
Performance
assurance
Interactive
•• Scenario
Land usedevelopment
and
metrics
outcomes
control
and
testing
• Institutions
User friendly
Synthesis
••Understanding
• Policies
•methodologies
Flexible
• Laws
••Place-based
Values
• Politics
Va riable
Variable
Albouys town,
Albuoystown
Georgetown
Georgetown
Informal social s upport
Spoke to neighbour t oday
Where doe s your closest friend
live?
Leave doo rs unlo cked whilst
going to the shops
Share food with neighbou rs
Clean d rains with neighbou rs
Clean streets with neighbours
Shop for neighbou rs
Play sports with neighbou rs
Loca l g roup membership
Religiou s grou p
Sports group
Com munit y g roup
Political pa rty
Pa rticipati on in el ections
Mos trecentn ational elections
Most recent city elections
Knowledg e of d isaster p revention
Have you ev er att ended a disaster
prev enti on meeting?
Do you know where your
nearest hurricane shelter is?
Los
The Pine,
Los
Maguitos Bridge
The Pine
Manguitos,
town
SDSanto
Barbados
Domingo
83%
same hous e
48%;
neighbour 29%
91%
same hous e
36%
neighbour 60%
65%
same hous e
32%;
neighbour 34%
40%
36%
63%
53%
64%
21%
33%
44%
NA
66%
44%
39%
61%
35%
29%
24%
33%
23%
60%
6%
5%
18%
46%
2%
24%
39%
48%
7%
11%
29%
81%
79%
70%
63%
80%
NA
NA
12%
6%
NA
43%
61%
Create a matrix of functional responsibilities of Waterrelated Ministries and organizations to identify pathways
for decision-making
•
Establishing and consolidate a viable scientific basis for water resources
management sector and for (inter)national (water) Policies
•
Initiating a multi-stakeholder process that builds the knowledge to cope
with climate variability and change.
•
Building and share knowledge and information by bridging
climate variability/change and water communities decision calendar
•
Raising awareness of the issues relating climate and water, and broaden
scientific, political and water managers participation in the discussion
Potential matrix of responsibilities within agencies, private and
community partners
Agencies etc.
__________________________________________________________________
Tasks
Water
Met.
Agriculture
Health Nres Other
Sewer
Service Agribusiness
__________________________________________________________________
Water supply
Sanitation
Irrigation
Flood control
Watershed management
Ports
Quality
Groundwater
Instream management
Other…
Simple approaches to climate risk and
vulnerability science
• “What if”: What would be the impacts if a given scenario occurred at a given
time (IPCC CM: scenarios, downscaling)?
•
Vulnerability Assessment and Sustainable Livelihoods (retrospective analyses,
mapping, scenarios, coping strategies)
•
Stakeholder threats and opportunities
(networks and adaptive capacity)
•
Climate impacts management
Decision making and critical risks: who, what where, when, why?, payoff
matrices)
Steps in a simplified Vulnerability Assessment
Step 1. What? Identifying the event and timescales of variability/change
• Probability, Magnitude, Frequency, Scope, Duration
Step 2. Who? Identifying exposure and capacity to withstand changes
• Proximate: Individuals, groups, communities,
• Quantifying economic-property risks and opportunities
Step 3. Why? Identifying the complex sources of risk
– Complexity and interrelatedness of natural, social, and
development factors
– Why does a particular risk exist? Causal factors: What happened
to make vulnerability high/low?
– Whose decisions and choices are involved? Who is most affected
by the decisions and choices?
Step 4. Where and When? Time and space dimensions
• Dynamic change: Reversible, irreversible, cumulative or compounding
– Interconnected scales, beneficial outcomes
Ensuring Coordination of Activities and Participation
by Sectors: Public, Private and
International Actors
• Developing Common Methodologies, Tools and Regional
Expertise
• Collecting, Mapping and Disseminating Hazard
Information
• Assessing Vulnerability
• Ensuring Safer Construction: Building Codes and
Standards
• Improving Physical Development Planning
• Developing Risk Transfer and Financing Mechanisms
Climate and climate impacts
University of the West Indies
Program in Natural Resources Management
• Moving beyond “training” course: Cadre of regional
professionals
– Professional Master’s Degree (2 year)
• World Bank/GEF. CIDA funded
• Agency (State, regional), NGO, students then return to
agency to complete projects
Opportunities for “win-win” situations and rule
changes may exist but
Changes may be difficult to implement
• Criticality
• Credibility
• Capacity
• Communication