2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

Hurricane Ike, NOAA

Tim Drum Senior Meteorologist WeatherBug Professional Services [email protected]

April 2, 2009

Review of 2008 Season Forecast

2008 Season Forecast

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Forecast Numbers:

10-12 named Storms 16 4-6 Tropical Storms should reach Hurricane status 2-4 Hurricanes of Major Category III classification 8 5 • Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTCA) near 100% of normal 164%

2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season

General Overview

2009 Atlantic Basin Names

Ana Danny Grace Joaquin Mindy Peter Teresa Bill Erika Henri Kate Nicholas Rose Victor Claudette Fred Ida Larry Odette Sam Wanda

Atlantic Basin T.C. Distribution

Atlantic Basin Averages

Current State of the Atlantic Basin

SST Anomalies – Atlantic 3/28/09

Slightly cooler than average

Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation

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Still midway through projected WARM ocean phase that is expected to last ~ 10 more years.

Current State of EPAC ENSO Cycle

ENSO Cycle

El Nino Example - 1997 La Nina Example - 1988

Latest Weekly ENSO SST Anomaly ???

Forecast SST Anomalies - EPAC

Climatology of Comparable Seasons

Establishing Data Set Method

 Going back to 1950, look at a weak La Nina followed by a neutral or weak El Nino.

 Focus on the seasons from above that also occurred during the “warm” phase of the AMO

Weak La Nina To Neutral Years(ONI) Averages:

• 10.5 Storms (10.1) • 6.2 Hurricanes (5.9) • 2.5 Major Hurricanes (2.5)

Weak La Nina + Warm AMO Years Averages:

• 11.2 Storms (10.1) • 6.6 Hurricanes (5.9) • 3.6 Major Hurricanes (2.5)

Other Factors to Consider

African Dust

Played a significant role in mitigating tropical cyclone development in 2006 & 2007 and part of 2008.

African Rainfall

Near average rainfall forecast over the northern Sahel region may lead to dust “outbreaks” again, this season.

The Forecast

Summary of Forecast Points

 La Nina conditions in EPAC to weaken, especially for the second half of the season.

 Statistics from previous near neutral ENSO + AMO years weigh heavily toward reduced activity from last year.

 Conditions over western Africa mean additional dust outbreaks over the central and eastern tropical Atlantic.

2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

 11-13 named storms (10.1 avg.)  6-8 hurricanes (5.9 avg.)  3-4 major hurricanes: winds 111+ mph (2.5 avg.)  Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTCA): near 130% of normal.

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CME Group Hurricane Contracts

3 Different types of Hurricane Contracts

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6 Different locations for Hurricane Contracts

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Event Futures, Options, Event Binary Options

– Based upon

named Hurricanes

making landfall anywhere in the Eastern US or reaching the CHI-Cat-in-a-box Galveston-Mobile area •

Seasonal Futures, Options, Seasonal Binary Options

– Based upon the

accumulated

CHI value for

all Hurricanes

make landfall within a specific

season

that •

Seasonal Maximum Futures, Options, Seasonal Maximum Binary Options, Seasonal Maximum 2 nd Event Binary Options

– Based on the CHI value of the within a specific

season largest Hurricane

to make landfall

CME Group Hurricane Contract Locations

• • • • • •

Gulf Coast Florida FL) Northern Atlantic (Brownsville TX to AL/FL Border) (AL/FL Border to Fernandina Beach,

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Southern Atlantic (Fernandina Beach, FL to NC/VA Border) Coast (NC/VA Border to Eastport, ME) Coast Eastern US Gulf & Florida FL) (Brownsville, TX to Eastport, ME) (Brownsville, TX to Fernandina Beach, CHI-Cat-in-a-Box (Galveston-Mobile area)

CME Group Hurricane Contract Specifications

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Standard Contracts: Contract: $1000 times the respective CME Hurricane Index Tick Size: 0.1 CHI Index Point Tick Value: 0.1 CHI Index point which equals $100 Hours: Sunday through Thursday from 5.00p.m. to 3.15p.m. Chicago time Available: Throughout the hurricane season from January 1 through December 31

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Binary Contracts: Contract: $10,000 times the respective CME Hurricane Index Tick Value: 0.01 CHI Index point which equals $1 Hours: Sunday through Thursday from 5.00p.m. to 3.15p.m. Chicago time Available: Throughout the hurricane season from January 1 through December 31