Transcript PowerPoint Template (English Version)

RIAL Workshop on Labour Migration
and Labour Market Information Systems
The Canadian Occupational
Projection System
Gilles Bérubé
Labour Market Research and Forecasting Division
Human Resources and Skills Development Canada (HRSDC)
February 24-25, 2009
The contents of this document do not necessarily represent the views of HRSDC
or those of the Government of Canada.
The Canadian Occupational Projection System
Outline
 Scope and objectives of projections
 Preparing the projections
 Selected projection results
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The Canadian Occupational Projection System
Labour Market Projections:
Scope and Objectives
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The Canadian Occupational Projection System
What is the scope of the projections?
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Projections of new labour supply and labour
demand, by skill/education level and by
occupational grouping, at the national level,
over the medium term (next 10 years)
Assessment of future imbalances between
labour supply and demand for 5 skill levels and
140 occupational groupings
“Ex ante” projections: no endogenous
adjustments
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The Canadian Occupational Projection System
Why do we do this?
To help inform:
 Policy and program analysts on labour market and
human capital issues that may emerge in the medium
term
 Youths facing educational decisions, via the use of the
projections in labour market information products (such
as Job Futures)
 Potential immigrants to Canada
 Canadian employers interested in the labour market
conditions they will have to hire from in the medium term
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The Canadian Occupational Projection System
Is anyone else doing this kind of projections?



No.
Many public and private organizations in Canada
produce reviews of economic conditions and/or
develop medium-to long-term forecasts.
These products usually provide a limited review of
labour market trends and none presents a detailed
forward-looking analysis of labour supply and
labour demand by skill/education level and
occupation.
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The Canadian Occupational Projection System
What questions do the projections try to answer?



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By how much will labour supply increase over the medium
term?
How many new jobs will be created over the next decade?
In which industries and occupations will these new jobs
emerge?
How many existing jobs will open up due to retirements?
What kind of education will be required to fill the job
openings?
Will labour supply be sufficient to meet labour demand?
What occupations will face significant labour shortage or
labour surplus conditions in the medium term?
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The Canadian Occupational Projection System
Preparing the Projections
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The Canadian Occupational Projection System
What ingredients do we use?


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Labour market and education data
Classification Systems
 The North American Industrial Classification
System (NAICS)
 The National Occupational Classification
(NOC)
Projection models, known as the Canadian
Occupational Projection System (COPS)
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The Canadian Occupational Projection System
Main data sources used in the projections
Data sources
Use in projections
Labour Force Survey
- To project employment growth (expansion demand) by
occupation / To set the occupational distribution of new job
seekers coming from the school system
(Monthly)
Census
(Every 5 years)
- To set the labour force participation rate of new immigrants
- To set the occupational distribution of new immigrants
National Graduates
Survey (Every 5 years)
- To set the occupational distribution of graduates in
different fields of study in colleges and universities
Post-secondary Student
Information System
- To project school enrolments, completions, noncompletions and the number of new labour market
entrants coming from the different education levels
(Annual)
Demographic Statistics
- To project population and labour force growth by age
(Annual)
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The Canadian Occupational Projection System
National Occupational Classification (NOC)

NOC organizes over 30,000 job titles into 520 occupational
groups, identified as unit groups, with a 4-digit code.

The unit groups are assembled groups into 140 minor groups,
with a 3-digit code - those are the ones used in our projections

The minor groups are rolled-up into 26 major groups, with a 2digit code.

NOC also classifies occupations by Skill Level and Skill Type.

Skill Type is based on the type of work performed in an
occupation.

Skill Level corresponds to the type and/or amount of training
or education typically required to work in an occupation – we
look at supply and demand by Skill Level in our projections
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The Canadian Occupational Projection System
Projections structure
Aggregate Macroeconomic
and Labour Market Indicators
Demographics
Labour Force
Employment by Industry
Expansion
Demand
Retirements
School
Leavers
Reentrants
Recent
immigrants
New Job Openings
New Job Seekers
Mobility
(New Labour Supply)
(New Labour Supply)
(vertical)
Future Labour Market Imbalances
by Skill Level
Future Labour Market Imbalances
by Occupation
Projected employment growth
versus labour force growth by skill level
Number of job openings
versus number of new job seekers
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The Canadian Occupational Projection System
Assessing imbalances between supply and demand
over the medium term
This involves two steps:
 A review of indicators of the balance between demand and supply
in recent years (starting point of the projection)
- Wage growth / Unemployment rate
 Looking at the projected gap between new demand and new supply
over the medium term
- For skill levels: compare growth in employment (new labour
demand due to economic growth) and growth in the labour
force.
- For occupations: compare number of new job openings (from
expansion and replacement demand) and number of new job
seekers (from the school system, immigration, re-entrants and
mobility).
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The Canadian Occupational Projection System
When do we do the projections?
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Every year, projection work starts after the
release of the economic accounts for the last
quarter of the previous year (early March)
Consultations with provincial/regional labour
market analysts
Projections completed by June/July
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The Canadian Occupational Projection System
How do we report and present the projections?
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Briefing senior management on key results
Summary documents
Projection database shared with federal /
provincial / regional partners which can use
them for their labour market information needs
Presentation of projection results to broader
audience in detailed report every two years
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The Canadian Occupational Projection System
Selected
Projection Results
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The Canadian Occupational Projection System
Immigration will account for an increasing share of
labour force growth over the next decade …
Recent Immigrants and Canadians in the Labour Force (15+, non-student) 1997-2017
440,000
Forecast
400,000
360,000
320,000
280,000
240,000
200,000
160,000
120,000
80,000
40,000
0,000
1997
1999
2001
Canadians
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
New Immigrants
Sources: Statistics Canada and Policy Research Directorate, HRSDC (Reference Scenario 2008).
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The Canadian Occupational Projection System
… but the school system will continue to be the main
source of new labour supply in the Canadian economy.
Sources of New Labour Supply (15+, non-student) : School Leavers, Immigration and Reentrants, 1991-2017
('000s)
700
School leavers
Net re-entrants
Immigrants
Projection
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Sources: Statistics Canada and Policy Research Directorate, HRSDC (Reference Scenario 2008).
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The Canadian Occupational Projection System
Labour supply and demand by skill level are projected
to move broadly in line over the medium term.
Annual Growth in Job Openings and Job Seekers by Skill Level, as a Percentage of Employment
in Skill Level in 2007 - Average Percentages for the Period 2008-2017
5,0
Skill Level A: Usually require university
Job Openings (%)
4,5
4,0
Skill Level B: Usually require college
3,5
or apprenticeship
Management
3,0
2,5
Skill Level C: Usually
require high school
2,0
1,5
Skill Level D:
1,0
Usually require on-the-job training
0,5
0,0
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
Job Seekers (%)
Source: Policy Research Directorate, HRSDC (Reference Scenario 2008).
4,0
5,0
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The Canadian Occupational Projection System
New Job Openings and New Job Seekers by Source:
The Case of Contractors and Supervisors, Trades and Related Workers
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Estimates provided in the chart and table are annual
averages over the 10-year period 2008-2017
Emigration
Deaths
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8
Components
In thousands
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Job Openings
8.8
Job Seekers
3.4
Excess Demand
5.4
% of 2007 Empl.1
2.5%
Required Supply
Variation2
183%
(000)
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Retirements
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Other
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3
Immigration
2
1
Expansion
School
Leavers
1Employment in 2007: 217,000
Percent increase in the sum of school leavers and
immigration required for balancing demand and supply.
2
0
-1
Demand
Supply
Source: Policy Research Directorate, HRSDC (Reference Scenario 2008).
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The Canadian Occupational Projection System
Increasing supply to meet projected demand over the medium
term: a significant challenges in many occupations.
Excess Demand versus New Labour Market Entrants from the School System and
Immigration, 2008-2017
Underground Miners / Oil & Gas Drillers / etc.
Supervisors, Mining / Oil / Gas
Contractors & Supervisors, Trades & Related
Other Tech. Occ's in Health (Except Dental)
Nurse Supervisors & Registered Nurses
Physicians / Dentists / Veterinarians
Human Resources & Business Service Professionals
Facility Operation & Maintenance Managers
Managers in Public Administration
School Leavers
Immigration
Excess Demand
Senior Management
0%
20%
Source: Policy Research Directorate, HRSDC (Reference Scenario 2008).
40%
60%
80%
100%
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The Canadian Occupational Projection System
For more information on COPS projections
and methodologies, go to:
Looking-Ahead: A 10-Year Outlook for
the Canadian Labour Market
(2006-2015)
In English:
http://www.hrsdc.gc.ca/en/publications_resources/research/categories/labour_m
arket_e/sp_615_10_06/page00.shtml
In French:
http://www.rhdsc.gc.ca/fr/publications_ressources/recherche/categories/marche_
travail_f/sp_615_10_06/page00.shtml
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