Transcript Document

NWS Decision Support
for High Profile Events
NOAA’s National Weather Service (NWS)
New York, NY Office
Brandon Smith
Aviation and Decision Support Program Manager
WFO New York
Decision Support Overview
◆ Decision Support Services – not a new concept (Incident
Meteorologist)
– Driven By Relationships Between the NWS Forecaster and the Decision
Maker
NWS IMET
Preparing
for wildfire
support
circa 1930.
Decision Support Overview
◆
National Weather Service provides specific/tailored support to emergency managers,
within the scope of its Mission.
– Communicates Concisely in Non-Technical Terms
– Communicates In The Decision Maker’s Preferred Method
– Understands A Customer’s Specific Needs
– Adapts Well to Changeable Working Environments
– Knows Role in Incident Command System
– Understands The Incident’s “Big Picture”
Decision Support Overview
◆ Decision Maker
– Do I Trust You?
– Are You A Team Player?
– Weather Is Information (Just Like Logistics, Operations)
– Can You Provide The Information I Need At The Right Time?
– I Want Your Best Estimate and Level of Confidence
High Profile NYC Metro Events
◆ Support to NYC OEM for the Annual Macy’s
Thanksgiving Day Parades, Manhattan
◆ 3rd Presidential Debate: 10/15/08, Hofstra
University - Hempstead, NY
◆ Decision Support Services to the Federal
Aviation Administration’s New York Terminal
Radar Approach Control (TRACON) Facility.
OEM Emergency Operations Center
Photo by NYC OEM
Support for Annual Thanksgiving Day Parades
About the Parade
◆ More than 3 Million people line streets of MidTown Manhattan
◆ More than 10,000 Parade Participants
◆ Parade 9 am – Noon; Millions of Extra People
6 am – 3 pm
In this photo provided by the United States Potato Board, handlers
struggle to move the Healthy Mr. Potato Head balloon when it is hit
with a gust of wind while going through New York City's Columbus
Circle during the annual Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade.
(AP Photo)
NYC OEM Requirements
Wind Speeds Along Parade Route
are critical…
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-
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How “high” should balloons
fly?
How many balloon handlers
are needed?
Criteria for Lowering Balloons:
Sustained speeds at least
23, gusts to 34 mph
Central Park ASOS not
enough.
NYC OEM Requirements
◆ Supplemental Wind Sensor Network (7 Sensors)
Along Parade Route
◆ Private Contractor Installs and Maintains Sensors for
Macy’s
◆ NWS interprets web based data in conjunction with
all other information and provides short term wind
forecasts for NYC OEM
ASOS Algorithms
Instantaneous
2008 Presidential Debate – Oct 15, 2008
• Only about 1100 in attendance at the arena
• Over 15,000 within ½ mile of the arena
Hofstra University and Farmingdale Airport
Hofstra University
Farmingdale Airport
(KFRG)
Farmingdale Airport
David S. Mack Auditorium
NO PARKING!!
Rain/Drizzle becomes a
much larger security issue:
15,000 people is one issue
15,000 people with Rain
Coats and umbrellas is
another
NO PARKING!!
Services
• Provide continuous weather
support to the EOC in terms of
public impact (rain/temps/wind)
• Provide HAZMAT/Emergency
response forecast information
(HYSPLIT)
• Coordinate with NY TRACON in
maintaining secure airspace around
Republic Airport (KFRG) where
dignitaries were landing.
•NY TRACON
Consider These Numbers …
◆ $6 BILLION
– What is lost annually in economic efficiencies as a
result of air traffic delays
◆ 70%
– The percentage of air traffic delays attributed to
weather
DECISION SUPPORT FOR AVIATION
NYC Metro Airspace is the busiest in the world
 JFK/EWR/LGA are in the top 20 in the nation
 HPN/TEB have 150,000+ operations per
year.
Aviation Demonstration Test
◆ A 60 day test of enhanced aviation weather
information services provided by WFO New
York involving a dedicated Aviation
Forecaster
◆ Monday-Friday, including holidays.
Aviation Demonstration Test
Purpose:
◆ Provide enhanced aviation weather forecast
information in support of N90 and area Towers.
◆ Test runs through November
◆ Performance metrics: FAA Comments,
Aviation Stats on Demand,
Aviation Demonstration Test
◆ Why?
◆ Because….
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–
–
–
Improving collaboration among the NWS and FAA facilities
Disseminating more frequent weather information
Increasing service to aviation customers
Improving service delivery infrastructure
This is the key to managing the
impact of weather on the New
York metropolitan area
How?
Aviation Demonstration Test
◆ Additional things we are planning to provide…
◆ Additional coordination with the TRACONs and FAA Command
Center, in conjunction with the CWSU whenever significant weather
is being added to the TAFs
◆ Participate in the CCFP chat to provide input along with the CWSU
◆ Icing forecast for select holding points from8-14KFT
Thanks…
◆ Questions?
◆ Contact info…
[email protected]
631-924-0562
Area of Responsibility
Aviation Service Area
◆ Extra slides
NWS Organization
◆ National Headquarters in Silver Spring, MD
◆ More than 12 National Centers
◆ 6 Regional Headquarters
- Eastern Region in Bohemia (LI), NY
◆ 122 Weather Forecast Offices
◆ 13 River Forecast Centers
◆ About 5,000 people (3,000 Meteorologists)
6-1
Who Are We?
◆ DOC - Department of Commerce
◆ NOAA – National Oceanic &
Atmospheric Administration
◆ NWS – National Weather Service
NWS Mission
◆ Save Lives
◆ Minimize Property Damage
◆ Enhance the National Economy
Through the Issuance of Accurate and Timely
Warnings, Advisories, Watches, and Outlooks
National Weather Service Eastern Region
◆ 23 WFO’s
◆ 4 CWSU’s
◆ 3 RFC’s
◆ Serves an area covering
XXX sq miles and a
population of XXX.
Got a nice ER map??