Transcript Monsoons, Megawatts, and Monster Catfish

Monsoons, Megawatts, and
Monster Catfish
Conflict and Cooperation over
Mainland Southeast Asia’s
Transboundary Rivers
Darrin Magee
Hobart & William Smith Colleges
Asia’s water tower…
QinghaiTibet
Plateau
… and powershed?
River as Untapped Resource
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Yunnan hydro development push since mid-1980s
Lancang-Mekong
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Nu-Salween
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2800 km long (600 in YN)
3 countries
Jinsha-Chang-Yangtze
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4800 km long (1200 in YN)
6 countries
6300 km long
9 Provinces + Tibet border
Manwan Dam
Now: 120 GW; 2020: 300 GW; Potential: 384 GW
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Lancang Cascade
LTJ
JB
WN
L
TB
H
D
T
M
K
GG
Q
Elevation (m)
XW
MW
DC
S
NZ
D
JH
GLB
MS
Distance (km)
Yunnan Huaneng Lancang Hydro Co.
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One of five power conglomerates split off
from former Ministry of Electric Power
Officially “stock company” but majority of
stocks are non-tradable
Development begun in 1987; first dam
completed in 1993 (Manwan)
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Middle Lancang River
澜沧江
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Nu Cascade
Lumadeng
2000 MW
165 m
Songta
4200 MW
307 m
Bingzhongluo
1600 MW
55 m
Bijiang
1500 MW
71 m
(Y)abiluo
1800 MW
133 m
Maji
4200 MW
300 m
Shitouzai
440 MW
59 m
Lushui
2400 MW
175 m
Saige
1000 MW
79 m
Liuku
180 MW
36 m
~1100 m
Fugong
400 MW
60 m
Yansangshu
1000 MW
84 m
Guangpo
600 MW
58 m
~600 km
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Yunnan Huadian Nu River Hydro Co.
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One of five power conglomerates split off
from former Ministry of Electric Power
Officially “stock company” but majority of
stocks are non-tradable
Development halted in March 2004 by
Premier for failure to follow EIA procedures
Ongoing “illegal” development halted again in
spring 2009
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Middle Nu River
怒江
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Policy Framework
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Western Development Campaign (2001)
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Send Western Electricity East (西电东送)
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Ultra-high-voltage DC lines (800 kV) by 2010
Send Yunnan Electricity Outward (云电外送)
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Prioritized in 2001
Send Yunnan Power to Guangdong (滇电粤送)
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Focus on resources and infrastructure
Power sales to Vietnam since 2004, Thailand next
Pan-Pearl River Delta (凡珠三角)
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Three West-East Corridors (通道)
Northern Corridor
From: Yalong Tsangpo
& Yellow
To: Capital area
Beijing /
Tianjin area
Middle Corridor
From: Jinsha/Upper Yangtze
To: Shanghai area
Southern Corridor
Shanghai /
Zhejiang /
Jiangsu area
Guangdong / PRD
From: Lancang/Nu
To: Guangdong area
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GMS: Reasons for the (sub)region
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1992 Asian Development Bank
6 Members
2005 Summit in China
Naturalizing discourse
 Grids
 Roads
 Rail
 Shipping
 Tourism
 Goods
Nepal
India
China
Bhutan
Bangladesh
GMS
China’s dam-builders go south (and elsewhere)
EXPORTING EXPERTISE
Global dam efforts by Chinese firms
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Roughly 100 projects (McDonald et al., 2008)
Often coupled with related infrastructure
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Investment approach in addition to aid
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Roads, bridges, communications
Motivated in large part by primary resource needs
Reforms in electric power industry open door
for flexibility and opportunism (Magee 2006;
McDonald et al., 2008)
Magee, D. Powershed Politics. The China Quarterly 185 (2006).
McDonald, K., et al., Exporting dams: China’s hydropower industry goes global, Journal of Environmental Management (2008).
Exporting knowledge
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Africa
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Eastern Europe
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Albania, Georgia
Central Asia/Middle East
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Algeria, Botswana, Ethiopia, Congo, Sudan
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Iran, Pakistan
And of course, next door…
China and Mainland SE Asia
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China upstream, regional power
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Mekong River Commission (MRC)
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Projects key to China’s western and regional development
Concerns downstream about China hegemony
Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, Vietnam members
China, Myanmar dialogue partners
MSEA governments, with or without blessing of MRC,
buying into China hydro development
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Inter-government Agreement for Power Trade in GMS
Thai co-investment in Chinese power stations
Power sales from China to Vietnam
GMS focus on regional power grid integration
Power lines across Laos to Thailand
Mekong River Commission
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New Strategic Plan (2006-2010)
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“more investments in irrigation, navigation, and
hydropower are bound to occur”
“appropriate exploitation of hydropower potential”
“potential area for cooperative development”
Review & update hydropower assessment (30 GW)
Hydropower “can play several important roles”
Modeling & assessment of proposed projects
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13 GW on mainstream Mekong
13 GW on major Mekong tributaries
Energy Profile: Cambodia
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Installed capacity:
~0.012 GW
Theoretical capacity:
~10 GW
Much of infrastructure, including power grid,
was destroyed during latter half of 1900s
Widespread dependence on diesel
generators for power (high cost, highly
polluting, dependent on oil imports)
More than 20 isolated systems
Energy Profile: Vietnam
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Installed capacity:
~4.5 GW
Theoretical capacity:
~18 GW
Plans for additional 5 GW by 2010
Transboundary power sales already
occurring from Yunnan since 2004 (110 kV)
New 500-kV line completed in 2006
Energy Profile: Laos
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Installed capacity:
~0.7 GW
Theoretical capacity:
~30 GW
Second greatest hydro potential on Mekong
“Battery” for powering GMS development
“Transhipment” point for power transfers
Sinohydro, China National Electronics, and
China Datang all bidding on Mekong cascade
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e.g., Xanakham (600 MW, US $880M)
Energy Profile: Thailand
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Installed capacity:
~3.5 GW
Theoretical capacity:
~15 GW
Most of technically, economically and
politically feasible hydropower already built
Significant popular resistance to new projects
and to operating rules of existing projects
Energy Profile: Myanmar (Burma)
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Installed capacity:
~0.75 GW
Theoretical capacity:
~37 GW
Developing massive reserves requires
international partnerships, made difficult by
military regime in power
Ta Sang Project on Salween: 7110 MW
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Thailand major investor, Chinese interest growing
Majority of power will go to Thailand
Sinohydro
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Consulting and construction company built
from assets of former MEP
Projects
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Kamchay 193 MW, US $280M, largest investment
by China in Cambodia, largest hydro project in
Cambodia; also Kirirom III (13 MW)
Paklay (1320 MW) on Mekong in Laos
Also high-speed rail in China and other
infrastructure projects in Angola
Grid Corporations
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Two national-level grid corporations from MEP
Restructuring in 2002 was intended to
separate generation from transmission in the
electric power industry
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China State Grid Xin Yuan International Investment
Co. for Kirirom III (13 MW) in Cambodia
China Southern Power Grid signed MOU in 2007 to
conduct feasibility study for Sambor (3300 MW or
465 MW) and Stung Cheay Areng (260 MW) in
Cambodia
SOUTHEAST ASIA’S RIVERS
BE DAMMED?
Why the push southward?
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China’s power shortages, future surplus?
“Soft power” approach to regional relations
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Resource diplomacy throughout GMS
Curbing Japanese influence in the region
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Japan Banking and Investment Corporation wields
considerable influence through infrastructure funds
Asian Development Bank – Japan major partner
Mekong River Commission – Japan major donor
Social and Ecological Concerns
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Changes to flow regime may impact downstream
fishing and agriculture
Sediment trapping reduces natural fertilization of
floodplain and dam efficiency
Resettlement disrupts social fabric and livelihoods
Interference with local power provision
Concerns about increase in dissolved gases,
potential for methane production in warm reservoirs
Great uncertainty due to political obstacles to
scientific collaboration and data-sharing
Monsoons
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Real concerns about
dam impacts on
unique Tonle Sap
ecosystem
Monsoon season
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Dry season
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Water enters lake
Water leaves lake
Major protein and rice
source
Monster Catfish
Charismatic megafauna?
 Giant catfish of symbol of
unique Mekong system
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Decidedly less cuddly than
pandas
Real concerns about
future of anadromous fish
in Mekong and tributaries
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~10 species migrate north
past Chinese border
No fish passage structures
Pros and cons of large dams
Benefits
 Irrigation
 Flood control
 Power generation
 Navigation
 Recreation
Costs
 Altered flow regime
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Impacts on ecosystems and
human communities
Change in water quality
Population displacement
Habitat alteration
Health risks
To dam or not?
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Multipurpose dams
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How do dams alter the hydrograph of a river?
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Why do they often fail to meet design expectations?
Highs? Lows?
Particularities of dams on transboundary rivers
in China/Mainland SE Asia
Do the benefits outweigh the costs?
Is C/B analysis even a good way to evaluate?
Sustainable Development?
Questions
Darrin Magee, Ph.D.
Environmental Studies Program
Hobart & William Smith Colleges
Geneva, NY
[email protected]