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Population and Food Production Produced by Common Threads IV - Hungry for Change OSSTF/FEESO Statistics used in this presentation comes from the following source: Millstone, Erik and Tim Lang. The Atlas of Food. University of California Press, California, 2008: p. 20. Fill in the remaining numbers below on the graph by estimating the trend of total cereal production from 2005 - 2050 Source: Millstone, Erik and Tim Lang. The Atlas of Food. University of California Press, California, 2008: p. 20. Based on the numbers you used to complete the chart, what general conclusions and consequences can you infer for the future? Western Asia North America Europe North Africa Latin America & Caribbean East and South East Asia SouthCentral Asia SubSaharan Africa Oceania The estimated world population in 2005 was 6.551 billion people. Using the regions above, estimate how many people lived in each region in 2005 to nearest million people. (that's 6,551 million people in the world!) World’s Population by Region - 2005 North America 332 million Europe 731 million Western Asia 212 million North Africa 190 million Latin America & Caribbean 558 million Sub-Saharan Africa 769 million East and South East Asia 2,080 million SouthCentral Asia 1,646 million Oceania 33 million Population Growth - Percentage Change in Population 1960-2005 North America 332 million Latin America & Caribbean 558 million +200% or more growth from 1960-2005 Europe 731 million Western Asia 212 million North Africa 190 million East and South East Asia 2,080 million South-Central Asia 1,646 million SubSaharan Africa 769 million +100-199% or more growth from 1960-2005 Oceania 33 million under 100% growth from 1960-2005 Looking at the population growth figures, make predictions about which areas of the world are going to face pressure on their resources in the future... Cereal Production - Regional Distribution 2005 North America 442m tonnes Europe 470m tonnes Western Asia 73m tonnes North Africa 36m tonnes Latin America & Caribbean 160m tonnes 140% - 199% SouthCentral Asia 313m tonnes Sub-Saharan Africa 92m tonnes Percentage change 1961-2004 200% or more East and SE Asia 624m tonnes Oceania 36m tonnes Look at the overall cereal production in 2005, and how much production of cereals has increased in each region since 1961..... Four Factors to Compare.... a) b) c) d) Population as of 2005 Population increase patterns over the last half century Cereal (food) production as of 2005 Cereal production increase patterns over the last half century Considering the above statistics and patterns, what issues may arise over the next 50 years when it comes to food and food distribution in various regions around the world??? Fill in your "Food Production and Speculation Matrix" as we go Food Production and Population Speculation Matrix Production vs Population North America Ability to Trade Surplus Food - has enough food for population, will have enough over long term based on population growth - no pressure to obtain food from other sources Europe Oceania Need to Trade to Get More Food - food production patterns show that they will likely have surplus food to trade for other goods Food Production and Population Speculation Matrix Production vs Population Latin America and Caribbean North Africa East and South East Asia Ability to Trade Surplus Food Need to Trade to Get More Food Food Production and Population Speculation Matrix Production vs Population SubSaharan Africa Western Asia South Asia Ability to Trade Surplus Food Need to Trade to Get More Food Based on your analysis, fit the regions of the world in the appropriate category... Secure: Food production vs Population is sustainable Challenges: Food production vs Population will face sustainability challenges Crisis: Food production vs Population is near or at a crisis situation North America Europe Latin America & Caribbean North Africa Western Asia East and South East Asia South-Central Asia Oceania Sub-Saharan Africa Is there enough food??? It has been argued that there is enough food produced in the world for its current population. Yet, chronic malnutrition is epidemic in many parts of the world. On the next slide, redistribute the food production (cereal) in the world to the global population so that everyone has an equal amount of food AND it is enough to meet basic needs. **The numbers used in this exercise are approximate values based on 2005 statistics** According to the Canada's Food Guide to Healthy Eating, the average adult would need 75kg of cereals and grains per year to meet a healthy, minimal diet. Using the population figures from earlier, how much cereal would be needed annually to meet the needs stated in Canada's Food Guide (based on 2005): 1,000kg = 1 metric tonne Region Population North America 332 million Latin America & Caribbean 558 million Europe 731 million North Africa 190 million Sub-Sarharan Africa 769 million Western Asia 212 million South Asia 1,646 million East & SE Asia 2,080 million Oceania 33 million Cereal Need per Person Cereal Need (in millions of tonnes) 75kg 75kg 24.9 75kg 75kg 75kg 75kg 75kg 75kg 75kg 123.45 North America - 442 m tonnes 100 mt 100 mt Europe - 470 m tonnes 100 mt 100 mt 100 mt 100 mt 10 mt 1 50 mt 100 mt100 mt 50 mt 10 mt 10 mt 10 mt 10 mt1 North Africa 36 m tonnes 10 mt 10 mt 1 mt 500 mt 1 mt 1 mt 1 mt 100 mt100 mt100 mt 10 mt 10 mt 10 mt 5 mt 1 mt 100 mt 100 mt 10 mt 1 50 mt 10 mt 10 mt 10 mt Sub-Saharan Africa - 92 m tonnes Latin America & Caribbean - 160 m tonnes East & SE Asia - 624 m tonnes mt 1 mt 1 mt South Asia - 313 m tonnes 10 mt 10 mt 10 mt 10 mt 10 mt 10 mt mt mt 1 mt 10 mt 1 mt 1 mt Redistribute the food production to meet the minimum needs that you calculated on your chart: Western Asia - 73 m tonnes 10 mt 10 mt 10 mt 10 mt 10 mt Oceania - 36 m tonnes 1 mt 1 mt 10 mt 5 mt 1 mt Remaining Food (if any) - Place along the bottom of your map Based on your work redistributing the cereal food production of the world... A) What conclusions can be drawn from the exercise about food production and distribution in the world? B) What factors may influence the lower production of food in areas of high population (i.e., South-Central Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa)? C) What role may agricultural technologies and access to those technologies have on the food production and distribution issue? Video Resource on Agricultural Production World Population - 7:31 Illustration of the growth of the world's population over time. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4BbkQiQyaYc Active Citizenship: INVESTIGATE some organizations and charitable groups that work to improve farming technology and greater equality in food distribution around the world. PARTICIPATE in an awareness campaign or lobbying your political leaders to address the issue of unequal food distribution and supporting the improvement of farming technologies in poorer nations. DEBATE the issue of food distribution and trade in the world by discussing the solutions and greater challenges to these issues.