Transcript High Level Aviation Safety Risk Assessment

High Level Aviation Safety Risk
Assessment
TIWANA WALTON
MENTOR: SHARON MONICA JONES
Outline
 Abstract
 Background
 Aviation Risk Assessment
 Research Approach
Abstract
Prior methods for calculating aviation safety risk assessments
were labor intensive. The purpose of this research is to find
an alternative method for conducting aviation safety risk
analysis in support of the portfolio assessment for Integrated
Resilient Aircraft Control (IRAC) Project within the NASA
Aviation Safety (AvSafe) Program. A literature search is
being conducted to find high level technology aviation risk
assessment methodologies and structured data collection
methods for use with subject matter experts. As a result of
the literature search, strong consideration has been placed on
applying the Delphi Method to conduct future aviation safety
analysis using risk matrices and decision support software.
Background
 NASA Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate
 Aviation Safety Program (AvSafe)
 Airspace Systems Program
 Fundamental Aeronautics Program
 Aeronautics Test Program
 Aviation Safety Program
 Integrated Vehicle Health Management (IVHM) Project
 Integrated Intelligent Flight Deck (IIFD) Project
 Integrated Resilient Aircraft Control (IRAC)
Project
 Aircraft Aging and Durability (AAD) Project
Background (cont’d)
 IRAC Milestone 4.2.4
 Assess IRAC portfolio by mapping IRAC research to the
potential loss of control scenarios. Identify overlooked
safety issues involved in loss of control events.
http://www.aeronautics.nasa.gov/nra_pdf/irac_tech_plan_c1.pdf

Five metrics within this milestone:
Technical development risk
 Implementation risk
 Fatal accident rate
 Safety benefit/costs
 Projected impact of safety risk

Aviation Safety Risk Assessment
 Previous Methods Used
 Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN’s)
 Logic Evolved Decision (LED)
 Problems with Prior Methods
 Labor intensive
 Relies on historic data
Ideal Characteristics of Risk Assessment
Methods
 Short model development time
 Smaller resource requirements (i.e., people, money)
 Ability to model several technologies in R&D
portfolio
 Smaller data requirements/less computational
intensive => high level qualitative assessment
methodology
Research Approach
 Literature Search
 List of Candidate Methods
 Review Candidate Methods Against Ideal
Characteristics
 Final Recommendations/Conclusions
Literature Search
 Literature Search Conducted
 Compendex
 IEEE Explorer
 NASA library catalog
 Literature Search
 was limited to materials within last 20 years
 Included conference and journal papers
 Also included text books
Candidate Methods
 FAA Risk Matrix
 Delphi Method
 DoD Risk Matrix
 Fault Logic Diagram
 Decision Trees
FAA Risk Matrix
SBN Risk Matrix Definitions
Likelihood:
Frequently Occurs once every week
Probable Occurs once every month
Remote Occurs once every 5 years
Extremely Remote Occurs once every 10 years
Extremely Improbable Occurs once every 20 years
Severity:
Catastrophic Loss of aircraft aircraft, life and/or damage in excess of $1,000,000
Hazardous Severe injury or damage in excess of $100,000 and/or disruption of critical
services (NAVAIDS, etc.)
Major Significant (but repairable) damage to an aircraft, equipment or Significant
aircraft, facility and/or minor injury
Minor Minor damage to equipment or facilities
No Safety Effect No injury, equipment or facility damage is possible
Future Work
 Continue reviewing candidates against criteria
 Make final recommendations about risk assessment
method for IRAC portfolio analysis
 Work with IRAC Systems Analysis Team to
implement risk assessment methodology against
IRAC list of technologies