Transcript CAST - Overview

Commercial Aviation
Safety Team
(CAST)
Overview
Kyle L. Olsen
ALAR Workshop, Baku, Azerbaijan
12 – 13 September 2007
Worldwide accident rates have dropped
dramatically over the years
30
Current accident rates are incredibly low
Challenge is to drive them lower
Accidents Per Million Flight Hours
25
20
15
Accident Rate
10
5
Fatal Accident Rate
'03
'00
97
94
91
88
85
82
Note: 2004 is based on a pro-rata of data through May, 2004.
79
76
73
70
67
64
61
58
55
52
49
46
0
In the U.S., our focus was set by the
White House Commission on Aviation
Safety, and The National Civil Aviation
Review Commission (NCARC)
“Reduce Fatal Accident
Rate by 80%”
“Strategic Plan to Improve Safety”
“Improve Safety Worldwide”
Historical Worldwide Fatality Risk (1987 - 2001)
100%
90%
80%
Fatality Risk
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Excluding all
security events
In Response
 Ongoing
Industry and FAA Safer Skies
Initiatives were combined into CAST
 Data-Driven,
Consensus-Based, Integrated
Strategic Safety Plan Developed
 In
place and fully supported by Government
and Industry with Worldwide Recognition Commercial Aviation Safety Team, “CAST”
Vision - Mission - Goals
Vision

Key aviation stakeholders acting cooperatively to lead the
world-wide aviation community to the highest levels of global
commercial aviation safety by focusing on the right things.
Mission

Enable a continuous improvement framework built on
monitoring the effectiveness of implemented actions and
modifying actions to achieve the goal.
Goal


Reduce the US commercial aviation fatal accident rate 80% by
2007.
And
Maintain a continuous reduction in fatality risk in US and
International commercial aviation beyond 2007.
CAST Organizational
Structure
CAST brings key stakeholders to cooperatively
develop & implement a prioritized safety agenda
Industry
AIA
Airbus
ALPA
APA
ATA
IFALPA
NACA
Boeing
GE*
RAA
FSF
Commercial Aviation
Safety Team
(CAST)
IATA**
AAPA**
ATAC**
APFA**
* Representing P&W and RR
** Observer
Government
DOD
FAA
•
•
•
•
•
Aircraft Certification
Flight Standards
System Safety
Air Traffic Operations
Research
NASA
ICAO**
JAA
TCC
NATCA**
NTSB**
EASA
Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)
CAST
Joint Safety
Analysis Teams (JSAT)
• Data analyses
Joint Safety
Implementation
Teams (JSIT)
• Safety
enhancement
development
Joint Implementation
Measurement Data
Analysis Team (JIMDAT)
• Master safety plan
• Enhancement
effectiveness
• Future areas of
study
Safer Skies
COMMERCIAL AVIATION
GENERAL AVIATION
Aeronautical
Decisionmaking
Loss of Control
Controlled Flight
Into Terrain
CABIN SAFETY
Loss of Control
Uncontained
Engine Failures
Weather
Passenger Interference
Passenger Seat Belt Use
Runway Incursion
Controlled Flight
Into Terrain
Approach and
Landing
Carry-on Baggage
Child Restraint
Survivability
Weather
Runway Incursions
IMPROVED DATA
& ANALYSIS
Turbulence
HUMAN FACTORS
IN OPERATIONS &
MAINTENANCE
CAST Dilemma
 To
reduce the accident rate, CAST needed to
implement solutions – resources are limited
 The
Safety Enhancements enhanced safety
but altogether cost ~ 5 billion dollars
 Some
safety enhancements are more
effective than others across the various
accident categories
 Implementation
reality demanded
prioritization of these enhancements
Basics of the Selection
Spreadsheet
Effectiveness
How effective the enhancement would be at eliminating
the conditions if the enhancement were put in place.
Implementation
By a future date what portion of the affected population
has the enhancement incorporated or predicted to be
incorporated.
Severity Weighting
To account for differences in severity or significance of
the undesired conditions.
General Methodology for Calculating the
Potential Benefit of a Safety Enhancing
Intervention
Accident
Risk
Reduction
= (
Effectiveness
that an intervention
has for reducing the
accident rate if
incorporated
,
Portion of
world fleet
with intervention
implemented
)
Spreadsheet Example – Historical Airplane Accidents &
Proposed Safety Enhancements
Accident
Date
Class
Location
Aircraft
Type
Description
Accident Description
Portion
of
Accident
Intervention Name
EGPWS
CFIT TRN
Portion of World Fleet w
Eliminated .600
.900
Intervention Effectivene
CFIT
CFIT
CFIT
CFIT
CFIT
CFIT
CFIT
CFIT
CFIT
CFIT
CFIT
CFIT
CFIT
CFIT
CFIT
CFIT
CFIT
CFIT
CFIT
CFIT
CFIT
CFIT
CFIT
CFIT
CFIT
CFIT
CFIT
CFIT
CFIT
CFIT
1/2/1988
2/8/1988
2/27/1988
3/17/1988
6/12/1988
7/21/1988
10/17/1988
10/19/1988
2/8/1989
2/19/1989
6/7/1989
7/27/1989
8/25/1989
10/21/1989
10/26/1989
2/14/1990
6/2/1990
11/14/1990
12/4/1990
3/5/1991
8/16/1991
1/20/1992
2/15/1992
3/24/1992
6/22/1992
7/31/1992
9/28/1992
11/25/1992
11/26/1992
4/26/1993
IZMIR, TURKEY
737
LUANDA, ANGOLA
707
KYRENIA MTS, CYPRUS727
CUCUTA, COLUMBIA
727
POSADAS, ARGENTINA MD80
LAGOS, NIGERIA
707
ROME, ITALY
707
AHMEDABAD, INDIA
737
SANTA MARIA AZORES 707
KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYS
7I
4A
7
PARAMARIBO, SURINAME
DC8
TRIPOLI, LIBYA
DC10
ANKARA, TURKEY
727
TEGUCIGALPA, HONDURA
727
HUALIEN, TAIWAN
737
BANGALORE, INDIA
A320
UNALAKLEET, ALASKA 737
ZURICH, SWITZERLANDDC9
NAIROBI, KENYA
707
MT LA AGUADA, VENEZU
DE
CL
9A
IMPHAL, INDIA
737
STRASBOURG, FRANCE A320
KANO, NIGERIA
DC8
ATHENS, GREECE
707
CRUZEIRO DO SUL, BRA
7Z
3I
7L
KATMANDU, NEPAL
A310
KATMANDU, NEPAL
A300
KANO, NIGERIA
707
MANAUS, BRAZIL
707
AURANGABAD, INDIA
737
HIT MOUNTAIN ON APPROACH
.657 .950
HIT ANTENNA ON APPROACH
.586 .800
HIT MOUNTAIN ON APPROACH
.657 .950
HIT MOUNTAIN DURING CLIMB
.657 .950
CRASHED ON FINAL APPROACH
.203 .000
CRASHED ON APPROACH
.203 .000
LANDED SHORT
.203 .000
LANDED SHORT
.586 .800
TERRAIN IMPACT/DESCENT
.657 .950
TERRAIN IMPACT/APPROACH
.657 .950
T E R R A I N I M P A C T / F I N A L A P P R O A C H. 2 0 3 . 0 0 0
T E R R A I N I M P A C T / F I N A L A P P R O A C H. 2 0 3 . 0 0 0
HIT ILS ANT. ON TAKEOFF
.000 .000
TERRAIN IMPACT/APPROACH
.657 .950
TERRAIN IMPACT/DEPARTURE
.657 .950
HIT SHORT (300 FT)
.203 .000
HIT HILL 7 MILES OUT IN FOG
.657 .950
CRASHED 5 MILES SHORT
.634 .900
HIT POWER LINE ON ILS FINAL
.203 .000
HIT MOUNTAIN/APPROACH
.657 .950
A / C H I T H I L L 2 0 M I L E S O U T / A P P.
R6
O5
A7
C H. 9 5 0
IMPACTED GROUND/FINAL
A P P R O A.
C5
H8 6 . 8 0 0
C F I T O U T O F P R O C E D U R E T R N - D A R.
K5 8 6 . 8 0 0
ABANDONED APPROACH-HIT MTN
.657 .950
HIT SHORT,DRK NT,DISTRACTED
.203 .000
CFIT-HIT MTN-MISSED APPROACH .657 .950
C R A S H E D S H O R T D U R I N G A P P R O A C H. 6 5 7 . 9 5 0
L A N D E D S H O R T M I S L E A D I N G L I G H T.
S5 3 8 . 7 0 0
H I T L I G H T S O N T O / R M L G C O L L A P S.
E0 0 0 . 0 0 0
HIT TRUCK AFTER TAKEOFF
.000 .000
.226
.226
.226
.226
.226
.226
.226
.226
.226
.226
.226
.226
.000
.226
.226
.226
.226
.226
.226
.226
.226
.226
.226
.226
.226
.226
.226
.226
.000
.000
Process Example - Values Used are Hypothetical
Output to
Strategy 1
Accident
Prevention
.41
Safety enhancements will
not be effective on accident
(.52x.797)
Portion of Accident that
would have been
eliminated by
enhancements =.59
(1-.41)
.797
.52
Other
Safety
Enhancements
Probability that
EGPWS
will not be effective
EGPWS
CFIT
Training
Aid
60% Fleet Incorporation
40% of Fleet
.4=1-.6
Airplane does not
have
EGPWS installed
(1-installed portion)
80% Effective
.12=.6(1-.80)
Airplane has EGPWS
installed but it is not effective.
(portion with EGPWS
x (1-effectiveness))
.1
Airplane does not
have
Inter #2 installed
(1-installed portion)
.697=.9(1-.226)
Airplane has Inter #2
installed but it is not effective.
(portion with Inter #2
x (1-effectiveness))
15
Resource Cost Vs. Risk Reduction
10000
APPROVED PLAN
Risk Reduction
9000
Total Cost in
$ (Millions)
8000
75%
7000
6000
50%
5000
2007
2020
4000
3000
25%
2000
1000
0%
0
Resource Cost ($ Millions)
Risk Eliminated by Safety Enhancements
100%
Cost Savings
Part 121 Aviation Industry Cost Due to Fatal/Hull Loss Accidents
100
Dollars/Flt. Cyc
80
Historical cost of
accidents per flight
cycle
Savings ~ $56/Flight Cycle
Or
~ $620 Million Dollars/Year
60
40
20
Cost of accident fatalities
following implementation of the
CAST plan @ 2007 levels
0
2002
2007
CAST Safety Plan
40 Completed Safety Enhancements

Safety Culture

Maintenance Procedures
 Flight Crew Training
 Air Traffic Controller Training
 Uncontained Engine Failures





Terrain avoidance warning system (TAWS)
Standard Operating Procedures
Precision Approaches
Minimum Safe Altitude Warning (MSAW) Systems
Proactive Safety Programs (FOQA + ASAP)
CAST Safety Plan (cont.)
25 Committed Safety Enhancements

Policies and Procedures
 Aircraft Design
 Flight Crew Training (additional aspects)
 Runway Incursion Prevention
 Precision Approaches (additional projects)
 Icing (additional turboprop projects)
 Midair
 Maintenance
 Cargo safety culture, policies and procedures
CAST
Implementation Status
CAST Safety Plan - Aug 02, 2007
In Question
0%
Late
3%
65 Safety Enhancements
42 Complete
23 Underway
On Tgt
32%
2
Two recent completed SE,
24 & 34.
21
42
Complete
65%
Complete
On Tgt
Late
In Question
2020 Plan Risk Reduction Estimate
74.3 %
2020 CAST SAFETY PLAN – WORKING SEs
(Total Plan – 65 SE; 42 Complete; 23 Underway)
24R2
30R1
34R1
39
47
53
120
2.4
0.7
1.5
4.0
1.2
4.2
0
AIR-1
ATA
ANM
ANM
ATO
ARA
AIA
101R1
121
125
127
129
130
131
0.10
3.02
1.06
0.3
1.72
6.39
30.35
AIA
ATA
ATA
AIR
AGC
AFS
ATA
133R1
134R1
136
159
162
163
165
2.73
1.73
0.98
0.27
0.0
0.39
0.0
AIA
AIA
ATA
ATO
AFS
ATA
AFS
169
170
172R1
175
2.34
0.42
0.97
0.0
AFS
AIA
AFS
ATA
SE #
Score
ON TRACK
IN QUESTION
LATE
LOOSEC
JIMDAT Score/2020 implementation level
All Regions Combined
Hull Loss & Fatal World Wide Accidents
Portion of Fatality Risk Mitigated If CAST Plan is Adopted World Wide
(2007 Implementation Values)
100%
90%
Risk Eliminated
80%
Risk Remaining
Portion of Risk
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Accident Classes Defined by CAST/ICAO Common Taxonomy
CAST Safety Strategy
Ongoing
Accident/
Incident/Studies
Master
Contributing
Factors
Incident
Analysis
Process
Emerging/
Changing Risk
Develop/Revise
Enhancements
& Metrics
Performance
To Plan
Review
CAST Plan
Industry/
Government
Action
\
Things to
Watch
Future Changes
Analysis Process
Safer
System
Information on System Performance
10-28-05 CAST-064
CAST Links to International
Safety Activities
•
ICAO
–
•
ESSI: European
Strategic Safety Initiative
Central and South
America
–
PAAST: Pan American
Aviation Safety Team
Africa
–
•
Europe
–
•
COSCAP (Cooperative
Development of
Operational Safety and
Continuing
Airworthiness)
•
Asia/Pacific
–
•
African Safety
Enhancement Team
(ASET)
Association of Asia
Pacific Airlines
North America
–
NAFTA: North American
Free Trade Association
• Others
International Perspective
CAST Safety Enhancements
Western-built transport hull loss accidents, by airline domicile, 1997 through 2006
Europe
0.7
United States
and Canada
0.5
C.I.S.
4.9
JAA - 0.6
Non JAA – 1.2
Middle East
3.0
China
0.3
Asia
1.9
(Excluding
China)
Africa
12.0
Latin America
and Caribbean
2.4
Oceania
0.0
World
1.16
Accidents per
million departures
International Perspective
CAST Safety Enhancements
Western-built transport hull loss accidents, by airline domicile, 1997 through 2006
United States
and Canada
CAST
0.5
65 SEs
40 complete
25 in work
ESSI
35 SEs JAA
11 SEs EASA
Europe
0.7
C.I.S.
4.9
COSCAP CIS
Specific CIS Projects
Middle East
3.0
COSCAP BAG
Africa
12.0
Latin America
PAAST
and Caribbean
CFIT and ALAR
2.4
COSCAP AM
COSCAP GS
(2006)
COSCAP CEMEC
COSCAP UEMOA
World
1.16
China
0.3
COSCAP NA, SA, SEA
NA-40 SEs in work
SA, SEA-27 SEs in work
Asia
1.9
(Excluding
China)
Oceania
0.0
Accidents per
million departures
Cooperative efforts are
bringing accident rate down
Hull Loss Accident Rate
Worldwide Commercial Jets (>60,000 lbs, non-CIS) Through 31 December 2002
2.00
Rate per million departures
5 year running average
1.60
1.20
FSF
CFIT/ALAR
Industry effort
starts
0.80
CAST/JSSI/
COSCAPs
begin
0.40
PAAST
begins
0.00
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Cooperative efforts are bringing
accident rate down in the USA
Part 121 Fatal Accident Rate
(Part 121 Onboard Fatal Accidents; 5 year moving average)
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
83% Fatality Accident
Rate Reduction
3.0
2.0
1.0
06
20
05
20
04
20
03
20
02
20
01
20
00
20
99
19
98
19
97
19
96
19
95
19
94
19
93
19
92
19
91
0.0
19
Fatality Accidents per 10 Million Departures
10.0
Conclusions
•
CAST brings together all the key players
– Air Carriers
– Manufacturers
– Employee Groups
– Government
•
Predicted 73% risk reduction by 2020
•
CAST is committed to worldwide participation
•
History shows focused action and introduction of
new capabilities have led to large accident rate
reductions
• Joint industry and government teams working
together to a common agenda can further enhance
the safety of our very safe aviation system. Can we
meet the challenge?
http://www.cast-safety.org/
Thank you
Backup Slides
Integrated Strategic Safety Plan
•
Data-Driven, Consensus-Based, Integrated Strategic Safety
Plan Developed
− 47 Prioritized Safety Enhancements
− 8 R&D Projects and 2 Studies
•
47 safety enhancements optimized to include those actions
with the best effectiveness vs. resource relationships - 30
complete/17 committed and underway
•
Initially combines short-term “liveware”-based
enhancements with transition to design change
enhancements long term
•
•
Projected 73% Risk Reduction by 2007 (75% by 2020)
Foundation for U.S-supported continuous improvements in
worldwide aviation safety
Safety Plan Benefits
•
Prediction of a 73% risk reduction that
also results in approximately $620 million
annual savings to the industry
−
Current accident cost per flight is
approximately $76 cycle
−
Implementation of the 47 selected safety
enhancements reduces this cost by $56 per
flight cycle
Safety Metrics Examples
Safety Enhancement
Indicator
1. Terrain Avoidance Warning
System (TAWS)
• Reduction in MSAW alerts
• Reduction in valid GPWS alerts (CFIT)
4. CFIT PAI-Vertical Angles (711,18)
• Percentage of operators who have adopted constant
21. ALAR Flight Deck
Equipment Upgrades – New
Type Designs (1-3)
• Reduction in number of inadvertent descents below
23. ALAR Flight Crew Training
– one project
• Continuous reduction in the number of busted
27. LOC Policies and
Procedures – Risk
Assessments and Management
– one project
• Percentage of operators/manufacturers with risk
angle approaches
• Continuous reduction in selected metrics
decision height
approach gates
• Continuous reduction in altitude busts
assessment/management processes in place
• Continuous reduction in the number of operations
with recurring intermittent failures in flight critical
systems
• Percentage of operators with a process to include
safety information in manuals
Safety Plan Development
Accident
JSITS
Case studies
Accident
JSATS
Case studies
Incident
Analysis
Process
Master
Contributing
Factors
Emerging
Risk
Safety
Enhancements
Develop
Enhancements
& Metrics
Recommended
Plan
Revision
JIMDAT
Review
Changing
Risk
CAST
Plan
Metrics
Performance
To Plan
Review
Aviation
System
Changes
Identify
Hazards
Identify
Factors
Yes
Present
In Master
Factors
FAST Hazards
Demographic
Changes
NonPerformance
Information
Identify
Hazards
Identify
Factors
No
Develop
Contributing
Factors
(new or
emerging
11-5-03 CAST-051R