Transcript The ECMWF forecasting system

GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using
Satellite and in-situ data
Anthony Hollingsworth
ECMWF
EIONET Workshop,
GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS
Vilnius
October 2005
A.Hollingsworth
Slide 1
Contents of the Presentation
•
In 2001-2007 Space Agencies will spend $25B on satellites for
climate & environmental research as well as weather; there will be
operational follow-ons for many research instruments
•
In 2005-2009 the GEMS project will extend current operational
global data-assimilation and forecast capabilities to atmospheric
composition, as well as dynamics & thermodynamics
•
•
•
•
•
Greenhouse gases
Aerosol
Reactive gases
Regional Air Quality
Preparation of an operational transition of GEMS in 2009
•
•
Successful recent initiatives AIRNow (USA & Canada), Prev’Air (F)
Joint proposal in 2006 for GMES Pilot Atmospheric service
EIONET Workshop,
GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS
Vilnius
October 2005
A.Hollingsworth
Slide 2
Satellite data assimilated operationally at ECMWF
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
27 different satellite sources!
Coming soon: NOAA-18, SSMIS,
radio occultation (GPS),…
3xAMSU-A (NOAA-15/16 + AQUA)
2xAMSU-B (NOAA-16/17)
3 SSMI (F-13/14/15) in clear and rainy conditions
1xHIRS (NOAA-17)
AIRS (AQUA)
Radiances from 5 GEOS (Met-5, Met-8, GOES-9/10/12)
Winds from 4 GEOS (Met-5/8 GOES-10/12) and
MODIS/TERRA+AQUA
• Scat winds from QuikSCAT and ERS-2 (Atlantic)
• Wave height from ENVISAT RA2 + ERS-2 SAR
• Ozone from SBUV (NOAA 16) and SCIAMACHY (ENVISAT)
EIONET Workshop,
GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS
Vilnius
October 2005
A.Hollingsworth
Slide 3
Forecast skill from 1981-2005
for Northern & Southern hemispheres
EIONET Workshop,
GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS
Vilnius
October 2005
A.Hollingsworth
Slide 4
A systematic approach to delivering socio-economic
benefits from Earth observations, using Earth-system
models and assimilations
Global & Regional Observations
Global Earth-system forecast systems for
Atmosphere, Land , Ocean, Chemistry, Biosphere
-delivering deterministic and probabilistic forecasts
Coupled end-user models, delivering
deterministic and probabilistic forecasts for
Air-quality
Health
Storm-surge
Hydrology & river floods
energy industry
Crop-yields
--EIONET Workshop,
GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS
Vilnius
October 2005
A.Hollingsworth
Slide 5
Contents of the Presentation
•
In 2001-2007 Space Agencies will spend $25B on satellites for
climate & environmental research as well as weather; there will be
operational follow-ons for many research instruments
•
In 2005-2009 the GEMS project will extend current operational
global data-assimilation and forecast capabilities to atmospheric
composition, as well as dynamics & thermodynamics
•
•
•
•
•
Greenhouse gases
Aerosol
Reactive gases
Regional Air Quality
Preparation of an operational transition of GEMS in 2009
•
•
Successful recent initiatives AIRNow(USA & Canada), Prev’Air (F)
Joint proposal in 2006 for GMES Pilot Atmospheric service
EIONET Workshop,
GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS
Vilnius
October 2005
A.Hollingsworth
Slide 6
GEMS:
Global Earth-system Monitoring
using Space and in-situ data
Coordinator
A.Hollingsworth (ECMWF)
Projects
Leadership
Greenhouse Gases
P.Rayner (F)
Reactive Gases
G.Brasseur (D)
Aerosol
O.Boucher (UK)
Regional Air Quality
V-H.Peuch (F)
Validation
H.Eskes (NL)
Global Production System
A.Simmons, H.Boettger, (ECMWF),
GMES Integrated Project,
12.5MEuro, 30 Institutes, 14 Countries
www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS
EIONET Workshop,
GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS
Vilnius
October 2005
A.Hollingsworth
Slide 7
Motivations for GEMS
• BETTER OPERATIONAL SERVICES
• Excess deaths in summer 2003:- 18K in France, 35K in western Europe.
• Europe needs improved operational warnings for
natural disasters
Meteorological / Air-quality
• GEMS will provide such warnings
• SCIENCE
• GEMS will synthesise all available data into accurate ‘status assessments’.
• GEMS products
will facilitate study of many science questions on the
sources, sinks transport, and processing of atmospheric trace constituents,
• TREATY ASSESSMENT & VALIDATION
• Conventions (Kyoto, Montreal, LRTAP) and IPCC need best estimates of
sources/ sinks/ transports of atmospheric constituents.
• GEMS will meet the needs in a comprehensive manner, including the
requirements of the GCOS Implementation Plan
EIONET Workshop,
GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS
Vilnius
October 2005
A.Hollingsworth
Slide 8
Objectives of GEMS
• Global operational system for monitoring & forecasting composition
ready by 2009
• Combine remotely sensed and in-situ data
• GREENHOUSE
GASES
(initially
including
CO2,
and
progressively adding CH4, N2O, plus SF6 and Radon to check
advection accuracy),
• REACTIVE GASES (initially including O3, NO2, SO2, CO, HCHO,
and gradually widening the suite of species),
• AEROSOLS
(initially
a
15-parameter
representation,
later ~ 30)
• Support operational Regional Air-Quality Forecasts
• Global Retrospective Analyses 2000-2007
• Variational Inversion Techniques to estimate sources & sinks of CO2
and other trace constituents
EIONET Workshop,
GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS
Vilnius
October 2005
A.Hollingsworth
Slide 9
GEMS organisation
GEMS is organised in 6 projects
Reactive
Gases
Greenhouse
Gases
Validation
Aerosol
Regional
Air Quality
EIONET Workshop,
GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS
Vilnius
October 2005
A.Hollingsworth
Slide 10
GEMS: Greenhouse Gases - Global Deliverables
• Daily assimilation of all available satellite data
(Advanced sounders, OCO, GOSAT) on CO2, CO, CH4,
N 2O
• Monthly / Seasonal variational inversions of both insitu (e.g. flask) and satellite data to provide
estimates of surface fluxes
• The same technology can be used to estimate surface
fluxes of other atmospheric constituents
EIONET Workshop,
GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS
Vilnius
October 2005
A.Hollingsworth
Slide 11
Motivations for the GEMS:Aerosol project
Aerosols are:• An emerging issue for numerical weather prediction.
• Neglect of aerosol is the largest error in model clear sky radiation
calculations (50W/m**2)
• Neglect of aerosol can lead to large errors (0.5K) in the forward
calculations for advanced sounders.
• The aerosol element of GEMS is likely to be the first GEMS element
included in the operational suite
• An important issue for public health and air quality (e.g.
forthcoming EU directive on PM2.5)
• GEMS will provide global forecasts for mineral dust, marine aerosol,
black carbon, sulphate aerosol..
• GEMS variational estimates of aerosol sources may be of help for
regulatory purposes
• An important issue for climate
• Aerosols may mitigate the impact of greenhouse gases through ‘global
dimming’?GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS
EIONET Workshop,
Vilnius
October 2005
A.Hollingsworth
Slide 12
GEMS:AEROSOL - Global Deliverables
• Model and assimilate global aerosol information
• Instruments:
MERIS, MODIS x 2, MISR, SEAWIFS, POLDER,
then VIIRS on NPP, VIIRS & APM on NPOESS,
• Initially 15 parameters
=>30 parameters
• Global Monitoring
• Global Forecasts
• Boundary info. for
Regional models
EIONET Workshop,
GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS
Vilnius
October 2005
A.Hollingsworth
Slide 13
GEMS: REACTIVE-GASES -
Deliverables & Approach
• Global Deliverables
• Monitor the global 3D / temporal distributions, transports,
sources/sinks of key species such as O3, NO2, SO2, CH2O..
• Forecast Global Chemical Weather, including UV-B
• Initial and boundary conditions for regional Chemical Weather
and Air-Quality Forecasts.
• Modelling & Assimilation Approach
• Tight coupling of the assimilating weather model (IFS) and a
Chemical Transport Model (CTM ) to maintain good advection,
and good chemical profiles.
• Copy frequently (2-hours?) the chemical fields from the
assimilating model IFS => CTM (Chemical Transport Model)
• Copy frequently (2-hours?) the Production and Loss rates from
CTM GEMS;
=> IFS
EIONET Workshop,
www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS
Vilnius
October 2005
A.Hollingsworth
Slide 14
Data Flow and Responsibilities in GEMS Reactive Gas project
Satellite
data
ECMWF
ESA
EUMETSAT
NASA
DLR
…
KNMI
ECMWF
BIRA
IUP-UB
SA-UPMC
NHRF
METEO-FR
Assimilation
System
MPI-M
ECMWF
KNMI
METEO-FR
BIRA
SA-UPMC
RAQ
Models
METEO-FR
ARPA SIM
ISAC
FRIUUK
UPMC
MPI-M
…
MPI-M
METEO-FR
KNMI
CTMs
Initial Fields
Production and Loss rates
EIONET Workshop,
GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS
Courtesy:
M.Schultz
Vilnius
October 2005
A.Hollingsworth
Slide 15
Validation
data
GAW
NOAA
NILU
METEO-FR
NASA
…
CNRS-LA
SA-UPMC
DWD
NHRF
NUIG
User
Services
FMI
DMI
MPI-M
METEO-FR
KNMI
GEMS: Regional Air Quality Objectives
• Evaluate the impact on Regional Air-Quality forecasts of global
information on Long-Range Transport of Air Pollutants.
• Initiate routine production at, & cooperation between, national air quality
forecast centres for data access, forecast comparisons & skill evaluation.
• Improve continental to regional scale air quality models, the statistical posttreatment of forecasts, & explore multi-model ensemble approaches.
• Improve our understanding of the health impacts of air quality and
incorporate air quality forecast information into a health forecast.
• Assess the effects of global variability 1999-2008 on regional air quality
and provide background for policy evaluation and evolution.
EIONET Workshop,
GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS
Vilnius
October 2005
A.Hollingsworth
Slide 16
GEMS Regional Air Quality Partners
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
Czech Hydrometeorological Institute
Max-Planck Institut für Meteorologie
Rheinisches Institut für Umweltf. Universität Köln
Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut
Finnish Meteorological Institute
CNRS: LMD / LA / LISA
Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Service d’Aéronomie
Météo-France, CNRM
Inst. Nat. de l’Environnement Industriel et des Risques
LCAE, University of Athens
ARPA Emilia Romagna, Servizio Idro-Meteorologico
Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate/ CNR
Irish Environmental Protection Agency
Meteorologisk Institutt Oslo
Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut
Polish Institute of Environmental Protection
The Met Office
Imperial College London
EIONET Workshop,
GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS
Vilnius
October 2005
A.Hollingsworth
Slide 17
CZ
D
D
DK
Fin
F
F
F
F
H
I
I
Irl
N
NL
P
UK
UK
Schedule of GEMS work at ECMWF
• Build and validate 3 separate assimilation systems for
Year 1
Greenhouse gases, Reactive gases, Aerosol.
May 2005+12mo • Acquire data; build web-site
Year 2
• Produce 3 different reanalyses for GHG, GRG, Aerosol
May 2006+12mo • Make reanalyses available for validation by all partners
• Provide feedback to data providers
Year 2-2.5
• Merge the 3 assimilation systems into a unified system;
May 2007 +6mo • Upgrade the models and algorithms based on experience
Year 2.5-3.5
• Build operational system, & interfaces to partners
Nov 2007+12mo • Produce unified reanalyses for GHG, GRG, Aerosol
Year 3.5 - 4
Nov 2008+ 6mo
• Final pre-operational trials
• Documentation & Scientific papers
EIONET Workshop,
GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS
Vilnius
October 2005
A.Hollingsworth
Slide 18
Contents of the Presentation
•
In 2001-2007 Space Agencies will spend $25B on satellites for
climate & environmental research as well as weather; there will be
operational follow-ons for many research instruments
•
In 2005-2009 the GEMS project will extend current operational
global data-assimilation and forecast capabilities to atmospheric
composition, as well as dynamics & thermodynamics
•
•
•
•
•
Greenhouse gases
Aerosol
Reactive gases
Regional Air Quality
Preparation of an operational transition of GEMS in 2009
•
•
Successful recent initiatives AIRNow (USA & Canada), Prev’Air (F)
Joint proposal in 2006 for GMES Pilot Atmospheric service
EIONET Workshop,
GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS
Vilnius
October 2005
A.Hollingsworth
Slide 19
AIRNow
•Environment Canada
•Meteorological Service of Canada
• AIRNow is a N.American collaboration for real-time sharing of air
quality information, observations and forecasts.
• AIRNow involves 145 partners at City, State, National, International
Level
• AIRNow’s protocols have been carefully designed to respect the
mandates and intellectual property rights of all partners.
• Data may only be used for agreed purposes – unvalidated data my not be
used for regulatory purposes
• Data QC algorithms are the responsibility of the data owner
• Data may only be displayed in a owner-agreed format (categorical or
numerical)
• Responsibility for official forecasts lies with the mandated authority at
city, state or national level…..
• AIRNow is perceived as a considerable step forward in real-time Air
Quality service in both Canada and USA
• http://airnow.gov/
EIONET Workshop,
GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS
Vilnius
October 2005
A.Hollingsworth
Slide 20
AIRNow Initial Operational Configuration
State, Local, EPA & NOAA IT Links
O3 Movies/
Forecasts
AQ Data
from S/L
Agencies
EPA Data Management Center
pull - - ->
push ____>
Commercial
Weather
Providers
NOAA National Center for
Environmental Prediction
Weather
Obs
EPA
Emissions
Inventory
Forecast
Pollutant
Concentration
Fields
Media
City-specific
AQI forecasts
State/Local Air Agencies
Public
EIONET Workshop,
GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS
Vilnius
October 2005
A.Hollingsworth
Slide 21Courtesy: Chet Wayland, US EPA
1300 AIRNow Ozone sites, hourly in real-time
Courtesy: Chet Wayland, US EPA
GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS Richard Menard, M.S.Canada
EIONET Workshop,
Vilnius
October 2005
A.Hollingsworth
Slide 22
AIRNow PM2.5 sites, hourly in real-time
Courtesy: Chet Wayland, US EPA
GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS Richard Menard, M.S.Canada
EIONET Workshop,
Vilnius
October 2005
A.Hollingsworth
Slide 23
Drafting a proposal for
GMES Initial Atmospheric Service
• In 2005 GMES Advisory Council (GAC) approved creation of three initial
services: Marine, Risks, Land Cover
• GAC recommended Atmosphere service to start in 2006
• EEA workshop in April 2005 indicated substantial interest in collaboration of
NEA’s and NMS’s in creating a real-time service
• PROMOTE (ESA –GMES Service Element) currently developing satellite-related
services
• EUMETNET Council (Oct 2005) invited ECMWF to take lead for the Met
Community in developing such a service.
• Identify a drafting team for a proposal on an operational real-time Air
Quality forecast service
• ECMWF (GEMS) + EUMETSAT (GMES Programme Office) + EUM/WG-ENV
• ESA: PROMOTE
• Environment Agencies:-----?
• Workshop in Spring 2006 to finalise the proposal
• (Little new GMES money before funding of FP7 proposals.)
EIONET Workshop,
GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS
Vilnius
October 2005
A.Hollingsworth
Slide 24
Summary of the Presentation
•
In 2001-2007 Space Agencies will spend $25B on satellites for
climate & environmental research as well as weather; there will be
operational follow-ons for many research instruments
•
In 2005-2009 the GEMS project will extend current operational
global data-assimilation and forecast capabilities to atmospheric
composition, as well as dynamics & thermodynamics
•
•
•
•
•
Greenhouse gases
Aerosol
Reactive gases
Regional Air Quality
Preparation of an operational transition of GEMS in 2009
•
•
Successful recent initiatives AIRNow(USA & Canada), Prev’Air (F)
Joint proposal in 2006 for GMES Pilot Atmospheric service
EIONET Workshop,
GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS
Vilnius
October 2005
A.Hollingsworth
Slide 25
END
thank you for your attention!
www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS
BACK-UP SLIDES
EIONET Workshop,
GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS
Vilnius
October 2005
A.Hollingsworth
Slide 27
GEMS Reactive Gas Partners
1.
ECMWF
2.
Laboratoire d'Aérologie, Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées
F
3.
Max-Planck Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg
D
4.
Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut
NL
5.
Belgisch Instituut voor Ruimte-Aeronomie, Brussels
B
6.
Finnish Meteorological Institute
F
7.
Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut
DK
8.
Deutscher Wetterdienst, Hohenpeissenberg
D
9.
Institut für UmweltphysikUniversität Bremen
D
10. Service d’Aéronomie, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris
F
11. LCAE, University of Athens,
H
12. Météo-France, CNRM, Toulouse
F
EIONET Workshop,
GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS
Vilnius
October 2005
A.Hollingsworth
Slide 28
GEMS Greenhouse Gas Partners
1.
ECMWF
2.
The Met Office
UK
3.
Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique/CNRS
F
4.
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement
F
5.
Max-Planck-Institut für Biogeochemie, Jena
D
6.
JRC, Institute for Environment and Sustainability
EU
EIONET Workshop,
GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS
Vilnius
October 2005
A.Hollingsworth
Slide 29
GEMS Aerosol Partners
1. ECMWF
2. The Met Office
UK
3. Laboratoire d'Optique Atmosphérique, Unversité de Lille
F
4. LSCE/ CEA, Orme des Merisiers
F
5. Max-Planck Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg
D
6. Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki
Fin
7. DWD Meteorological Observatory, Hohenpeissenberg
D
8. Service d’Aéronomie, UPMC/CNRS, Paris
F
9. Dept. of Physics, National University of Ireland, Galway
Irl
10. Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, Brussels
B
EIONET Workshop,
GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS
Vilnius
October 2005
A.Hollingsworth
Slide 30
GEMS Reactive Gas Partners
1.
ECMWF
Europe
2.
Laboratoire d'Aérologie, Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées
F
3.
D-Coordinator
4.
Max-Planck Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg
Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut
5.
Belgisch Instituut voor Ruimte-Aeronomie, Brussels
B
6.
Finnish Meteorological Institute
F
7.
Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut
DK
8.
Deutscher Wetterdienst, Hohenpeissenberg
D
9.
Institut für UmweltphysikUniversität Bremen
D
NL
10. Service d’Aéronomie, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris
F
11. LCAE, University of Athens,
H
12. Météo-France, CNRM, Toulouse
F
EIONET Workshop,
GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS
Vilnius
October 2005
A.Hollingsworth
Slide 31
Example OF CO2 Validation with Aircraft data
R.Engelen
Flight data kindly provided by H. Matsueda, MRI/JMA
EIONET Workshop,
GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS
Vilnius
October 2005
A.Hollingsworth
Slide 32
Modelling of Tropospheric Chemistry needs a full chemistry package and good
surface emissions! Initially we shall bootstrap by coupling GCM & CTM
Simulation of Ozone mixing ratio (nmol/mol) at 850 hPa for August 3, 2003, 1500 UTC as simulated
with MOZART-2 CTM.
EIONET Workshop,
GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS
Vilnius
October 2005
A.Hollingsworth
Slide 33
Courtesy: G.Brasseur
European heat-wave 4-13 August 2003
Week-1/2/3 ensemble forecasts for 4-10 Aug
VERIFICATION
Verif,
Week 1
Week
Forecast 23/07: DAYS
12-182 Week 3
Forecast 30/07: DAYS 5-11
Forecast 16/07:DAYS 19-25
EIONET Workshop,
GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS
Informal 32nd session of the SAC. 6 October 2003
Vilnius
October 2005
A.Hollingsworth
Slide 34
Vitart (2005)
Issues in Transitioning the GEMS project to
Operational Status from 2009 onwards.
• The GEMS project intends to be scientifically ready and
technically ready to transition the global and regional GEMS
systems to operational status by May 2009. New institutional
arrangements are needed to
•
•
•
•
fund operations, incl. human resources, computing & telecomms.
fund sustained research support
make and share observations, both real-time and archival
product dissemination, both real-time and archival
• Actors in creating such institutional arrangements include
•
•
•
•
European Commission, EEA , ESA
National Environment Agencies
Nat.Met.Services, ECMWF, EUMETSAT & EUMETNET
Scientific and technical partners in GEMS, PROMOTE, and
related GMES activities.
• Possible next step: Joint proposal in 2006 for
GMES Pilot Atmospheric service
EIONET Workshop,
GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS
Vilnius
October 2005
A.Hollingsworth
Slide 35