Transcript Document

Sudan
Prospects for Peace
September 2008
presented by: Michael Kevane, Dept. of
Economics, Santa Clara University
for more information see
UnderstandingSudan.org
20 September 2008
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Outline
– Quick timeline
– What were and are the wars?
– What is the structure of the peace?
– What can we say about likely reversion
to war?
– What steps can be taken to reduce
likelihood of return to war?
UnderstandingSudan.org
University of California, Berkeley © 2008
UnderstandingSudan.org
University of California, Berkeley © 2008
Quick Timeline
– 1821 Invasion by Mohamed Ali of Egypt defeats
Kingdom of Sennar and occupies most of northern Sudan
– 1885 Mohamed al-Mahdi revolts against TurksEgyptians-English
– 1898 Britain reconquers Sudan – Co-dominion
– 1916 Britain conquers Sultanate of Darfur
– 1956 Hasty independence
– 1958 General Ibrahim Abboud takes power
– 1964 October uprising restores democracy
– 1969 Colonel Jaafar Nimeiri takes power
– 1985 Palace coup/popular uprising restores democracy
– 1989 Colonel Omar al-Bashir takes power
– 2005 Signing of Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA)
– 2009 Elections supposed to be held
– 2011 Southern referendum
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What were and are the wars?
– North-South 1955-72
– North-South 1983-2005
•SPLA split of 1991
•Famine of 1998
•Nuba Mountains
•Eastern Sudan, NDA
– Darfur 2003-present
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North-South War 1955-72
Leading up to handover of power from Anglo-Egyptian
condominium, rumors that northern-dominated army
would emasculate southerners in army
– Confusion over orders for garrison of southern army in
Torit to move to Khartoum
– Near-simultaneous uprising targeting northern officers
and northern resident in south. About 350 killed.
– Low level unorganized resistance
– Joseph Lagu defects from northern army 1963
– Anya Nya gradually coalesced
– South Sudan Liberation Movement (SSLM)
– Addis Ababa Agreement 1972
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North-South War 1955-72: What was it like?
“I received a blow in Bor in 1967 when I went there to
defend a great and fine man, Paramount Chief Ajang
Duot Bior with 14 other chiefs. They were detained by
the army garrison in Bor… I was immediately
confronted by a young officer who was dangling his
revolver in front of me and said, without mincing his
words: “I hear you are an advocate who has come to
defend the chiefs. Well, this is our law…” pointing to
the revolver…I returned to Juba to seek transfer
orders… the Paramount Chief and others were taken
from detention and escorted to their homes where they
were shot. The young officer in Bor was earnest in his
threats. “
– Abel Alier Southern Sudan: To Many Agreements
Dishonored. Exeter: Ithaca Press, 1990 p. 7.
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Short-Lived Addis Ababa Agreement 1972
– Southern Autonomy
– High Executive Council and Regional
Assembly
– Oil discovered by Chevron
– Nimeiri after 1977 reconciles with northern
political forces
– Gradual abrogation of agreement, final straw
dismissal of HEC and re-division into three
provinces with military governors
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North-South War 1983-05
– Kerubino Bol and John Garang organize uprising in
Bor garrison
– SPLA went from about 10,000 in early 1980s to 50,000
in mid-1990s
– The Red Army (youth training)
– Early 1991 Garang leads SPLA to try to take Juba
– Mengistu falls in Ethiopia in May 1991
– August 1991 – Riek Machar, Lam Akol, Gordon Kong
split from Garang
– SPLA severely weakened, but eventually withstands
the split, Riek rejoins in 2002 after a decade allied
with government
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North-South War 1983-05
Operation Lifeline brings massive foreign involvement
in southern Sudan
– Military coup brings General Omar al-Bashir and
Islamists too power. War of attrition.
– 1998 al-Shifa cruise missile attack shifts U.S.
policy to support SPLA more openly
– Sept. 11, 2001 escalates U.S. resolve to embark on
“regime changes”
– Countries around Sudan become increasingly
hostile towards military regime
– Oil revenues make peace profitable for both sides
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North-South War 1983-05:
Presage of Tactics in Darfur
– Famine of 1998 in Bahr al-Ghazal
• Clearing of region for oil exploration and development
• Murahalen
• Kerubino Bol (SPLM founder, rift with Garang, see HRW report)
• Several hundred thousand people die
• Cry for Madiom DVD documents one feeding center
– Nuba Mountains
• Site of intense fighting during 1990s
• Bombing of school in Kauda, February 2000
–
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/640128.stm
• Ethnic cleansing into “peace camps”
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Darfur1
Geography
Sudan in the Region2
Sudan in the World
1. http:// rightsmaps.com/html/sudmap1.html and
2. http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L03772791.htm
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War in Darfur
• 1990-2000 high casualty but basically stagnant and
unorganized low-level warfare, linked to war in Chad
• 2003 two rebel movements (SLA and JEM) attack El
Fasher airport
• Government-backed militia, janjawid, est. 20,000 persons,
launches scorched earth campaign
• Multiplicity of rebel groups:
– Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) fractured; Minni Minawi faction
signed Darfur Peace Agreement with government, May 2006,
Abdel Wahid al-Nur remains in Paris
– Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) – attacked Omdurman in
a bold move in May 2008
• 200,000-300,000 deaths estimated overall since February
2003
• 2.5 million persons internally displaced (IDPs)
• 238,000 refugees in 12 UNHCR camps in Chad
• 4.5 million persons in need of humanitarian assistance.
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What is the structure of the peace?
– Comprehensive Peace Agreement
– Darfur Peace Agreement
– International Criminal Court
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Comprehensive Peace Agreement
– Power-sharing between SPLA and
National Congress Party (NCP) of Omar al
Bashir – 52%/28% in Government of
National unity (GNU) and North, 28%/52%
in South
– Wealth-sharing of oil revenues – basically
50-50
– Joint Integrated Forces, demobilization
– Multi-donor development trust funds
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UnderstandingSudan.org
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Darfur Peace Agreement
– Power-sharing between Darfur rebel groups
and National Congress Party (NCP) of Omar
al Bashir
– Darfur rebel representative in VicePresidential like position
– Transfer of wealth from central government to
Darfur provinces (three provinces or one?)
– Darfur-Darfur peace dialogues
– Cantoning of armed forces and disarmament
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International Criminal Court
– Case referred to ICC by Security Council after UN
report
– Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo indicted Ahmed
Haroun and Ali Kushayb in 2007
“Evidence collected by the Office of the Prosecutor and presented to
the ICC judges on February 27th shows Ahmad Harun and Ali
Kushayb joining together to systematically pursue and attack
innocent civilians. In his former position as Minister of State for the
Interior and head of the Darfur security desk, Ahmad Harun
organised a system through which he recruited, funded and armed
Militia/Janjaweed to supplement the Sudanese Armed Forces and
then incited them to commit murder, rape, and other massive
crimes against the civilian population. He was well-suited for the
task, having mobilised and recruited Militia in Kordofan, South
Sudan, for a counterinsurgency campaign in the
1990s. Militia/Janjaweed leader Ali Kushayb played a key role in
Harun’s system, personally delivering arms and leading attacks
against villages.”
From ICC press release, June 2007
http://www.icc-cpi.int/pressrelease_details&id=251.html
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International Criminal Court
– and President Omar al-Bashir in July 2008
• “The Prosecution evidence shows that Al Bashir
masterminded and implemented a plan to destroy in
substantial part the Fur, Masalit and Zaghawa groups, on
account of their ethnicity. Members of the three groups,
historically influential in Darfur, were challenging the
marginalization of the province; they engaged in a rebellion.
AL BASHIR failed to defeat the armed movements, so he
went after the people. “His motives were largely
political. His alibi was a ‘counterinsurgency.’ His intent was
genocide. ” The Prosecutor said.”
• From ICC press release, July 2008 http://www.icccpi.int/press/pressreleases/406.html
– What would arrest warrant do to CPA and Darfur?
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What kind of likely reversion to war?
– North-South civil war
• Abyei – town destroyed in May 2008
• Elections in 2009 and referendum in 2011
• Southerners in Khartoum population’s citizenship and legal
status
– Darfur
– South-South civil war
• Plenty of ethnic cleavages and tactical divisions (Salva KiirRiek Machar, etc.)
– North-North civil war
• Hassan al-Turabi may be plotting comeback, Sadiq al-Mahdi,
etc.
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What are root causes of wars?
– War of visions? Whose country is Sudan? What
kind of country?
• Wresting power from “Arabs” from central northern
Sudan
• Muzzling Islamists and convincing ordinary Muslims
that a secular or multicultural state is acceptable
– Wars of grievance?
• Power and wealth sharing
– Ethnic fault lines (structural geography)?
– Wars as elites fighting by proxy?
• A military-security apparatus in Khartoum, warlords
elsewhere
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What steps can be taken to reduce
likelihood of return to war?
– Peacekeeping troops
•Darfur
•South
– Economic sanctions
– Guarantees to South
– Military intervention in Darfur
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