What’s New in Design-Expert version 7 - Stat-Ease

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Transcript What’s New in Design-Expert version 7 - Stat-Ease

Design-Expert version 7

What’s New in Design-Expert version 7 Pat Whitcomb September 13, 2005

1

What’s New

General improvements

 Design evaluation     Diagnostics Updated graphics Better help Miscellaneous Cool New Stuff  Factorial design and analysis  Response surface design  Mixture design and analysis  Combined design and analysis Design-Expert version 7 2

Design Evaluation

 User specifies what order terms to ignore.

 Can evaluate by design or response.

 New options for more flexibility.

 User specifies D/s ratios for power calculation.

  User specifies what to report.

User specified options for standard error plots.

 Annotation added to design evaluation report.

Design-Expert version 7 3

Design-Expert version 7

Design Evaluation

Specify Order of Terms to Ignore Focus attention on what is most important.

4

Design-Expert version 7

Design Evaluation

Evaluate by Design or Response Useful when a response has missing data.

5

Design Evaluation

New Options for More Flexibility  User specifies D/s ratios for power calculation.

 User specifies what to report.

 User specified options for standard error plots.

Design-Expert version 7 6

Design-Expert version 7

Design Evaluation

Annotated Design Evaluation Report 7

Diagnostics

 Diagnostics Tool has two sets of buttons:  “Diagnostics” and “Influence”.

 New names and limits.

 Internally studentized residual = studentized residual v6.

 Externally studentized residual = outlier t v6.

• The externally studentized residual has exact limits.

 New – DFFITS  New – DFBETAS Design-Expert version 7 8

Diagnostics

Diagnostics Tool has Two Sets of Buttons e i = residual i Design-Expert version 7 9

Diagnostics

Exact Limits t( a /n, n-p'-1) p' is the number of model terms including the intercept n is the total number of runs Design-Expert® Software Conversion Color points by value of Conversion: 97.0

51.0

4.33

Externally Studentized Residuals 2.17

0.00

-2.17

Design-Expert version 7 -4.33

1 4 7 10 13 Run Number 16 19 10

Diagnostics

DFFITS DFFITS measures the influence the i th observation has on the predicted value.

(See Myers, Raymond: “Classical and Modern Regression with Applications”, 1986, Duxbury Press, page 284.) It is the studentized difference between the predicted value with observation i and the predicted value without observation i. DFFITS is the externally studentized residual magnified by high leverage points and shrunk by low leverage points. It is a sensitive test for influence and points outside the limits are not necessarily bad just influential. These runs associated with points outside the limits should be investigated to for potential problems.

2.00

0.96

-0.07

-1.11

-2.15

1 4 DFFITS vs. Run 7 10 13 Run Number 16 DFFITS is very sensitive and it is not surprising to have a point or two falling outside the limits, especially for small designs. 19 Design-Expert version 7 11

Diagnostics

DFBETAS DFBETAS measures the influence the i th observation has on each regression coefficient. (See Myers, Raymond: “Classical and Modern Regression with Applications”, 1986, Duxbury Press, page 284.) The DFBETAS j,i is the number of standard errors that the j th coefficient changes if the i th observation is removed.

DFBETAS for Intercept vs. Run DFBETAS for A vs. Run 2.00

2.00

1.00

0.00

-1.00

-2.00

1 4 7 10 13 Run Number 16 19 Design-Expert version 7 1.00

0.00

-1.00

-2.00

1 4 7 10 13 Run Number 16 19 12

Updated Graphics

 New color by option.

 Full color contour and 3D plots.

 Design points and their projection lines added to 3D plots.

 Grid lines on contour plots.

 Cross hairs read coordinates on plots.

 Magnification on contour plots.

 User specified detail on contour “Flags”.

 Choice of “LSD Bars”, “Confidence Bands” or “None” on one factor and interaction plots.

Design-Expert version 7 13

Design-Expert® Software Conversion Color points by value of Conversion: 97.0

51.0

Design-Expert version 7

New Color by Option

Normal Plot of Residuals 99 95 90 80 70 50 30 20 10 5 1 -1.39

-0.51

0.36

1.23

Internally Studentized Residuals 2.10

14

Full Color Contour and 3D Plots

A: Water 5.000

626.122

2.000

517.398

734.847

843.571

2.000

4.000

B: Al cohol Design-Expert version 7 952.296

3.000

Turbidity 4.000

C: Urea 15

Design-Expert version 7 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 A (5.000)

Design Points on 3D Plots

B (2.000) C (4.000) C (2.000) A (3.000) B (4.000) 16

Grid lines on contour plots

90.00

87.50

85.00

82.50

80.00

40.00

80.0

Conversion 88.0

86.0

84.0

82.0

42.50

45.00

A: time 5.000

2.000

2 80.0

47.50

3.500

78.0

50.00

3.000

4.000

4.500

4.000

C: Urea 500 600 1000 700 800 900 2.500

3.000

B: Alcohol 3.500

3.000

A: Water Turbidity 2.500

3.500

4.000

2 2.000

Design-Expert version 7 17

Cross Hairs

Design-Expert version 7 18

Magnification on Contour Plots

A: T EA-LS 28.000

160 160 2 1.000

160 150 175 170 140 9.000

B: Cocami de 20.000

Height 1.000

9.000

C: Laurami de 1.000

A: T EA-LS 26.105

160 1.000

170 170 175 160 6.283

B: Cocami de 22.868

Height C: Laurami de 4.877

Design-Expert version 7 19

Specify Detail on Contour “Flags”

90.00

87.50

Conversion 88.0

Prediction 81.6

Observed 81.0

95% CI Lo 77.8

95% CI Hig 85.4

95% PI Lo 71.6

95% PI Hig 91.6

SE Mean 1.68337

SE Pred X1 4.43914

X2 85.00

86.0

85.00

80.0

80.0

82.50

80.00

40.00

Design-Expert version 7 42.50

45.00

A: time 47.50

78.0

50.00

20

“LSD Bars” & “Confidence Bands”

One Factor 54 47.75

41.5

35.25

29 0.00

10.00

20.00

A: Departure 30.00

40.00

One Factor 54 47.75

41.5

35.25

29 0.00

10.00

20.00

A: Departure 30.00

40.00

Design-Expert version 7 21

 Improved help  Screen tips  Movies (mini tutorials)

Better Help

Design-Expert version 7 22

Miscellaneous Cool New Stuff

 “Graph Columns” now has its own node.

 Highlight points in the design layout or on a diagnostic graph for easy identification.

 Right click and response cell and ignore it.

 Improved design summary.

 Numerical optimization results now carried over to graphical optimization and point prediction.

 Export graph to enhanced metafile (*.emf).

Design-Expert version 7 23

Graph Columns Node

Design-Expert version 7 24

DFBETAS for C vs. Run 4.93

3.20

1.46

-0.27

-2.00

1 6 11 16 Run Number 21 26 31 Design-Expert version 7

Highlight Points

25

Ignore Response Cells

Design-Expert version 7 26

Improved Design Summary

New in version 7:  Means and standard deviations for factors and responses.

 The ratio of maximum to minimum added for responses.

Design-Expert version 7 27

Numerical optimization results carried over to graphical optimization and point prediction.

Design-Expert version 7 28

What’s New

 General improvements  Design evaluation     Diagnostics Updated graphics Better help Miscellaneous Cool New Stuff 

Factorial design and analysis

 Response surface design  Mixture design and analysis  Combined design and analysis Design-Expert version 7 29

Two-Level Factorial Designs

 2 k-p factorials for up to 512 runs (256 in v6) and 21 factors (15 in v6).

 Design screen now shows resolution and updates with blocking choices.

 Generators are hidden by default.

  User can specify base factors for generators.

Block names are entered during build.

 Minimum run equireplicated resolution V designs for 6 to 31 factors.

 Minimum run equireplicated resolution IV designs for 5 to 50 factors.

Design-Expert version 7 30

2

k-p

Factorial Designs

More Choices Need to “check” box to see factor generators Design-Expert version 7 31

2

k-p

Factorial Designs

Specify Base Factors for Generators Design-Expert version 7 32

MR5 Designs

Motivation Regular fractions (2 k-p fractional factorials) of 2 k designs often contain considerably more runs than necessary to estimate the [1+k+k(k-1)/2] effects in the 2FI model.

 For example, the smallest regular resolution V design for k=7 uses 64 runs (2 7-1 ) to estimate 29 coefficients.

 Our balanced minimum run resolution V design for k=7 has 30 runs, a savings of 34 runs. “

Small, Efficient, Equireplicated Resolution V Fractions of 2 k designs and their Application to Central Composite Design

s”, Gary Oehlert and Pat Whitcomb, 46th Annual Fall Technical Conference, Friday, October 18, 2002.

Available as PDF at: http:// www.statease.com/pubs/small5.pdf

Design-Expert version 7 33

MR5 Designs

Construction  Designs have equireplication, so each column contains the same number of +1s and −1s.

 Used the columnwise-pairwise of Li and Wu (1997) with the D-optimality criterion to find designs.

 Overall our CP-type designs have better properties than the algebraically derived irregular fractions.

 Efficiencies tend to be higher.

 Correlations among the effects tend be lower.

Design-Expert version 7 34

k 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 2 k-p 32 64 64 128 128 128 256 256 256 MR5 22 30 38 46 56 68 80 92 106

MR5 Designs

Provide Considerable Savings k 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 25 30 2 k-p 256 256 256 512 512 512 512 1024 1024 MR5 122 138 154 172 192 212 232 326 466 Design-Expert version 7 35

MR4 Designs

Mitigate the use of Resolution III Designs The minimum number of runs for resolution IV designs is only two times the number of factors (runs = 2k). This can offer quite a savings when compared to a regular resolution IV 2 k-p fraction.  32 runs are required for 9 through 16 factors to obtain a resolution IV regular fraction.  The minimum-run resolution IV designs require 18 to 32 runs, depending on the number of factors.

• • A savings of (32 – 18) 14 runs for 9 factors.

No savings for 16 factors.

Screening Process Factors In The Presence of Interactions

”, Mark Anderson and Pat Whitcomb, presented at AQC 2004 Toronto. May 2004. Available as PDF at: http://www.statease.com/pubs/aqc2004.pdf.

Design-Expert version 7 36

MR4 Designs

Suggest using “MR4+2” Designs

Problems

:  If even 1 run lost, design becomes resolution III – main effects become badly aliased.

 Reduction in runs causes power loss – may miss significant effects.

 Evaluate power before doing experiment.

Solution

:  To reduce chance of resolution loss and increase power, consider adding some padding: 

New

Whitcomb & Oehlert “

MR4+2

” designs Design-Expert version 7 37

MR4 Designs

Provide Considerable Savings k 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 2 k-p 16 16 16 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 MR4+2 14 16* 18* 20 22 24 26 28 30 32*

* No savings

k 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Design-Expert version 7 2 k-p 32 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 MR4+2 34* 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 38

Two-Level Factorial Analysis

 Effects Tool bar for model section tools.

 Colored positive and negative effects and Shapiro-Wilk test statistic add to probability plots.  Select model terms by “boxing” them.

 Pareto chart of t-effects.

 Select aliased terms for model with right click.

 Better initial estimates of effects in irregular factions by using “Design Model”.

 Recalculate and clear buttons.

Design-Expert version 7 39

Two-Level Factorial Analysis

Effects Tool Bar  New – Effects Tool on the factorial effects screen makes all the options obvious.

 New – Pareto Chart  New – Clear Selection button  New – Recalculate button

(discuss later in respect to irregular fractions)

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Design-Expert® Software Filtration Rate Shapiro-Wilk test W-value = 0.974

p-value = 0.927

A: T emperature B: Pressure C: Concentration D: Stir Rate Positive Effects Negative Effects

Two-Level Factorial Analysis

Colored Positive and Negative Effects Half-Normal Plot 99 A 95 90 80 70 50 30 20 10 0 C D AD AC 0.00

5.41

10.81

|Standardized Effect| 16.22

21.63

Design-Expert version 7 41

95 90 80 70 50 30 20 10 0 99 Half-Normal Plot Warning! No terms are selected.

Two-Level Factorial Analysis

Select Model Terms by “Boxing” Them.

Half-Normal Plot 99 95 90 80 70 50 30 20 10 0 C D AD AC A 0.00

5.41

10.81

|Standardized Effect| 16.22

21.63

0.00

5.41

10.81

|Standardized Effect| 16.22

21.63

Design-Expert version 7 42

Two-Level Factorial Analysis

Pareto Chart to Select Effects The Pareto chart is useful for showing the relative size of effects, especially to non-statisticians.

Problem : If the 2 k-p factorial design is not orthogonal and balanced the effects have differing standard errors, so the size of an effect may not reflect its statistical significance.

Solution : Plotting the t-values of the effects addresses the standard error problems for non-orthogonal and/or unbalanced designs.

Problem : The largest effects always look large, but what is statistically significant?

Solution : Put the t-value and the Bonferroni corrected t-value on the Pareto chart as guidelines.

Design-Expert version 7 43

Two-Level Factorial Analysis

Pareto Chart to Select Effects Pareto Chart 11.27

C 8.45

AC 5.63

A 2.82

Bonferroni Limit 5.06751

t-Value Limit 2.77645

0.00

Design-Expert version 7 1 2 3 4 Rank 5 6 7 44

Design-Expert version 7

Two-Level Factorial Analysis

Select Aliased terms via Right Click 45

Two-Level Factorial Analysis

Better Effect Estimates in Irregular Factions DESIGN-EXPERT Plot clean A: water temp B: cy cle time C: soap D: sof tener Design-Expert version 6 Half Normal plot Design-Expert® Software clean 99 97 95 Shapiro-Wilk test W-value = 0.876

p-value = 0.171

A: water temp B: cycle time C: soap D: softener A Negative Effects 90 85 80 70 60 B C AC 40 20 0 0.00

14.83

29.67

|Effect| 44.50

59.33

95 90 80 70 50 30 20 10 0 Design-Expert version 7 Half-Normal Plot 99 AC A C 0.00

17.81

35.62

53.44

|Standardized Effect| 71.25

Design-Expert version 7 46

Two-Level Factorial Analysis

Better Effect Estimates in Irregular Factions

ANOVA for Selected Factorial Model Analysis of variance table [Partial sum of squares] Source Sum of Squares DF Mean Square F Value

Model

A

B

C AC

Residual Cor Total 38135.17

10561.33

8.17

11285.33

14701.50

512.50

38647.67

1

7 11 4

1

1

1

9533.79

10561.33

8.17

11285.33

14701.50

73.21

130.22

144.25

0.11

154.14

200.80

Prob > F

< 0.0001

< 0.0001

0.7482

< 0.0001

< 0.0001

Design-Expert version 7 47

Two-Level Factorial Analysis

Better Effect Estimates in Irregular Factions Main effects only model: [Intercept] = Intercept - 0.333*CD - 0.333*ABC - 0.333*ABD [A] = A - 0.333*BC - 0.333*BD - 0.333*ACD [B] = B - 0.333*AC - 0.333*AD - 0.333*BCD [C] = C - 0.5*AB [D] = D - 0.5*AB Main effects & 2fi model: [Intercept] = Intercept - 0.5*ABC - 0.5*ABD [A] = A - ACD [B] = B - BCD [C] = C [D] = D [AB] = AB [AC] = AC - BCD [AD] = AD - BCD [BC] = BC - ACD [BD] = BD - ACD [CD] = CD - 0.5*ABC - 0.5*ABD Design-Expert version 7 48

Two-Level Factorial Analysis

Better Effect Estimates in Irregular Factions  Design-Expert version 6 calculates the initial effects using sequential SS via hierarchy.

 Design-Expert version 7 calculates the initial effects using partial SS for the “Base model for the design”.

 The recalculate button

(next slide)

calculates the chosen (model) effects using partial SS and then remaining effects using sequential SS via hierarchy.

Design-Expert version 7 49

Two-Level Factorial Analysis

Better Effect Estimates in Irregular Fractions  Irregular fractions – Use the “Recalculate” key when selecting effects.

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General Factorials

Design

:  Bigger designs than possible in v6.

 D-optimal now can force categoric balance (or impose a balance penalty).

 Choice of nominal or ordinal factor coding.

Analysis

:  Backward stepwise model reduction.

  Select factor levels for interaction plot.

3D response plot.

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General Factorial Design

D-optimal Categoric Balance Design-Expert version 7 52

General Factorial Design

Choice of Nominal or Ordinal Factor Coding Design-Expert version 7 53

Categoric Factors

Nominal versus Ordinal The choice of nominal or ordinal for coding categoric factors has no effect on the ANOVA or the model graphs. It only affects the coefficients and their interpretation: 1. Nominal – coefficients compare each factor level mean to the overall mean.

2. Ordinal – uses orthogonal polynomials to give coefficients for linear, quadratic, cubic, …, contributions.

Design-Expert version 7 54

Battery Life

Interpreting the coefficients Nominal contrasts – coefficients compare each factor level mean to the overall mean.

Name A1 A2 A3 A[1] 1 0 -1 A[2] 0 1 -1  The first coefficient is the difference between the overall mean and the mean for the first level of the treatment.

 The second coefficient is the difference between the overall mean and the mean for the second level of the treatment.

 The negative sum of all the coefficients is the difference between the overall mean and the mean for the last level of the treatment.

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Battery Life

Interpreting the coefficients Ordinal contrasts – using orthogonal polynomials the first coefficient gives the linear contribution and the second the quadratic: Name B[1] 15 -1 70 125 0 1 B[2] 1 -2 1 2 1 0 Polynomial Contrasts B[1] = linear B[2] = quadratic -1 -2 -3 15 70 Temperature 125 Design-Expert version 7 56

General Factorial Analysis

Backward Stepwise Model Reduction Design-Expert version 7 57

Select Factor Levels for Interaction Plot

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General Factorial Analysis

3D Response Plot Design-Expert® Software wood failure X1 = A: Wood X2 = B: Adhesive Actual Factors C: Applicator = brush D: Clamp = pneumatic E: Pressure = firm 96 81.5 67 52.5 38 LV-EPI-RT EPI-RT RF-RT PRF-RT B: Adhesive PRF-ET pine poplar maple red oak chestnut A: Wood Design-Expert version 7 59

Factorial Design Augmentation

 Semifold: Use to augment 2k-p resolution IV; usually as many additional two-factor interactions can be estimated with half the runs as required for a full foldover.

 Add Center Points.

 Replicate Design.

 Add Blocks.

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What’s New

 General improvements  Design evaluation     Diagnostics Updated graphics Better help Miscellaneous Cool New Stuff  Factorial design and analysis 

Response surface design

 Mixture design and analysis  Combined design and analysis Design-Expert version 7 61

Response Surface Designs

 More “canned” designs; more factors and choices.

 CCDs for ≤ 30 factors (v6 ≤ 10 factors)   • • New CCD designs based on MR5 factorials.

New choices for alpha “practical”, “orthogonal quadratic” and “spherical”.

Box-Behnken for 3 –30 factors (v6 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9 & 10) “Odd” designs moved to “Miscellaneous”.

 Improved D-optimal design.

  for ≤ 30 factors (v6 ≤ 10 factors) Coordinate exchange Design-Expert version 7 62

MR-5 CCDs

Response Surface Design  Minimum run resolution V (MR-5) CCDs:  Add six center points to the MR-5 factorial design.

 Add 2(k) axial points.

 For k=10 the quadratic model has 66 coefficients. The number of runs for various CCDs: • Regular (2 10-3 ) = 158 • • MR-5 = 82 Small (Draper-Lin) = 71 Design-Expert version 7 63

MR-5 CCDs

(k = 6 to 30) Number of runs closer to small CCD 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 0 CCD MR-5 CCD SCCD Design-Expert version 7 5 10 15 k: # of factors 20 25 30 64

MR-5 CCDs

(k=10,

a

= 1.778)

Regular, MR-5 and Small CCDs Model Residuals Lack of Fit Pure Error 2 10-3 CCD 158 runs MR-5 CCD 82 runs Small CCD 71 runs 65 65 65 92 83 9 16 11 5 5 1 4 Corr Total 157 81 70 Design-Expert version 7 65

MR-5 CCDs

(k=10,

a

= 1.778)

Properties of Regular, MR-5 and Small CCDs Max coefficient SE Max VIF Max leverage Ave leverage Scaled D-optimality 2 10-3 CCD 158 runs 0.214

1.543

0.498

0.418

1.568

MR-5 CCD 82 runs 0.227

Small CCD 71 runs 16.514

2.892

0.991

12,529 1.000

0.805

2.076

0.930

3.824

Design-Expert version 7 66

MR-5 CCDs

(k=10,

a

= 1.778)

Properties closer to regular CCD A-B slice 4 3 2 1 0 1.00 0.50 B: B 0.00 -0.50 -1.00 -1.00

-0.50

0.50

0.00

A: A 1.00

4 3 2 1 0 1.00 0.50 B: B 0.00 -0.50 -1.00 -1.00

-0.50

0.50

0.00

A: A 1.00

16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1.00 0.50 B: B 0.00 -0.50 -1.00 -1.00

-0.50

0.50

0.00

A: A 1.00

2 10-3 CCD 158 runs Design-Expert version 7 MR-5 CCD 82 runs Small CCD 71 runs different y-axis scale 67

MR-5 CCDs

(k=10,

a

= 1.778)

Properties closer to regular CCD A-C slice 4 3 2 1 0 1.00 0.50 C: C 0.00 -0.50 -1.00 -1.00

-0.50

0.50

0.00

A: A 1.00

4 3 2 1 0 1.00 0.50 C: C 0.00 -0.50 -1.00 -1.00

-0.50

0.50

0.00

A: A 1.00

4 3 2 1 0 1.00 0.50 C: C 0.00 -0.50 -1.00 -1.00

-0.50

0.50

0.00

A: A 1.00

2 10-3 CCD 158 runs MR-5 CCD 82 runs all on the same y-axis scale Small CCD 71 runs Design-Expert version 7 68

MR-5 CCDs

Conclusion Best of both worlds:  The number of runs are closer to the number in the small than in the regular CCDs.

 Properties of the MR-5 designs are closer to those of the regular than the small CCDs.

• The standard errors of prediction are higher than regular CCDs, but not extremely so.

• Blocking options are limited to 1 or 2 blocks.

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Practical alpha

Choosing an alpha value for your CCD Problems arise as the number of factors increase:  The standard error of prediction for the face centered CCD (alpha = 1) increases rapidly. We feel that an alpha > 1 should be used when k > 5.

 The rotatable and spherical alpha values become too large to be practical.

Solution:  Use an in between value for alpha, i.e. use a practical alpha value.

practical alpha = (k) ¼ Design-Expert version 7 70

Standard Error Plots

2 6-1 CCD Slice with the other four factors = 0 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1.00 0.50 B: B 0.00 -0.50 -1.00 -1.00

-0.50

0.50

0.00

A: A 1.00

1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1.00 0.50 B: B 0.00 -0.50 -1.00 -1.00

-0.50

0.50

0.00

A: A 1.00

1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1.00 0.50 B: B 0.00 -0.50 -1.00 -1.00

-0.50

0.50

0.00

A: A 1.00

Face Centered a = 1.000

Practical a = 1.565

Spherical a = 2.449

Design-Expert version 7 71

Standard Error Plots

2 6-1 CCD Slice with two factors = +1 and two = 0 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1.00 0.50 B: B 0.00 -0.50 -1.00 -1.00

-0.50

0.50

0.00

A: A 1.00

1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1.00 0.50 B: B 0.00 -0.50 -1.00 -1.00

-0.50

0.50

0.00

A: A 1.00

1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1.00 0.50 B: B 0.00 -0.50 -1.00 -1.00

-0.50

0.50

0.00

A: A 1.00

Face Centered a = 1.000

Practical a = 1.565

Spherical a = 2.449

Design-Expert version 7 72

Standard Error Plots MR-5 CCD (k=30)

Slice with the other 28 factors = 0 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1.00 0.50 B: B 0.00 -0.50 -1.00 -1.00

-0.50

0.50

0.00

A: A 1.00

1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1.00 0.50 B: B 0.00 -0.50 -1.00 -1.00

-0.50

0.50

0.00

A: A 1.00

1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1.00 0.50 B: B 0.00 -0.50 -1.00 -1.00

-0.50

0.50

0.00

A: A 1.00

Face Centered a = 1.000

Practical a = 2.340

Spherical a = 5.477

Design-Expert version 7 73

Standard Error Plots MR-5 CCD (k=30)

Slice with 14 factors = +1 and 14 = 0 2.4 2 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 0 1.00 0.50 B: B 0.00 -0.50 -1.00 -1.00

-0.50

0.50

0.00

A: A 1.00

2.4 2 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 0 1.00 0.50 B: B 0.00 -0.50 -1.00 -1.00

-0.50

0.50

0.00

A: A 1.00

2.4 2 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 0 1.00 0.50 B: B 0.00 -0.50 -1.00 -1.00

-0.50

0.50

0.00

A: A 1.00

Face Centered a = 1.000

Practical a = 2.340

Spherical a = 5.477

Design-Expert version 7 74

Choosing an alpha value for your CCD

11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 8 9 10

k Practical Spherical 6

7

1.5651

1.6266

2.4495

2.6458

1.6818

1.7321

1.7783

2.8284

3.0000

3.1623

1.8212

1.8612

1.8988

1.9343

1.9680

2.0000

2.0305

2.0598

3.3166

3.4641

3.6056

3.7417

3.8730

4.0000

4.1231

4.2426

Design-Expert version 7 24 25 26 27 28 29

30 k Practical Spherical

19 20 2.0878

2.1147

4.3589

4.4721

21 22 23 2.1407

2.1657

2.1899

4.5826

4.6904

4.7958

2.2134

2.2361

2.2581

2.2795

2.3003

2.3206

2.3403

4.8990

5.0000

5.0990

5.1962

5.2915

5.3852

5.4772

75

D-optimal Coordinate Exchange*

Cyclic Coordinate Exchange Algorithm 1.

Start with a nonsingular set of model points.

2.

Step through the coordinates of each design point determining if replacing the current value increases the optimality criterion. If the criterion is improved, the new coordinate replaces the old.

(The default number of steps is twelve. Therefore 13 levels are tested between the low and high factor constraints; usually ±1.)

3.

The exchanges continue and cycle through the model points until there is no further improvement in the optimality criterion.

* R.K. Meyer, C.J. Nachtsheim (1995), “

The Coordinate-Exchange Algorithm for Constructing Exact Optimal Experimental Designs

”, Technometrics, 37, 60-69 .

Design-Expert version 7 76

What’s New

 General improvements  Design evaluation     Diagnostics Updated graphics Better help Miscellaneous Cool New Stuff  Factorial design and analysis  Response surface design 

Mixture design and analysis

 Combined design and analysis Design-Expert version 7 77

Mixture Design

 More components  Simplex lattice 2 to 30 components (v6 2 to 24)  Screening 6 to 40 components (v6 6 to 24)  Detect inverted simplex  Upper bounded pseudo values: U_Pseudo and L_Pseudo  New mixture design “Historical Data”  Coordinate exchange Design-Expert version 7 78

Inverted Simplex

When component proportions are restricted by upper bounds it can lead to an inverted simplex.

X 1 For example: x1 ≤ 0.4

90

x2 ≤ 0.6

x3 ≤ 0.3

70 10 50 50 30 30 30 50 1 0 70 7 0 10 90 9 0

Design-Expert version 7 X 2 X 3 79

Inverted Simplex

3 component L_Pseudo Using lower bounded L_Pseudo values leads to the following inverted simplex.

A: x1 1.000

Open “

I-simplex L_P.dx7

” and model the response. 0.50 in L_Pseudo 0.000

0.000

Design-Expert version 7 1.000

B: x2 0.000

1.000

C: x3 80

Inverted Simplex

3 component U_Pseudo

(page 1 of 2)

1.

Build a new design and say “ Yes ” to “Use previous design info”.

2.

Change “ User-Defined ” to “ Simplex Centroid ”.

3.

When asked say “ Yes ” to switch to upper bounded pseudo values “U_Pseudo.

Design-Expert version 7 81

Inverted Simplex

3 component U_Pseudo

(page 1 of 3)

4.

Change the replicates from 4 to

6

and 5.

Right click on the “Block” column header and “ Display Point Type ” Design-Expert version 7 82

Inverted Simplex

Upper Bounded Pseudo Values The high value becomes 0 and the low value becomes 1!

A: x1 1.000

1 in U_Pseudo 0 in U_Pseudo 0.000

0.000

Design-Expert version 7 1.000

B: x2 0.000

1.000

C: x3 83

Inverted Simplex

Upper Bounded Pseudo Values The upper value becomes 0 and the lower value 1!

U_Pseudo values: U_Pseudo  U i   Re al U i  1 Real Pseudo  U i  X i x1 x2 x3 L i 0.1

0.3

0.0

U i 0.4

0.6

0.3

L i 1 1 1 U i 0 0 0  0.4

 0.3

X 1  0.6

 0.3

X 2  0.3

 0.3

X 3 Design-Expert version 7 84

Inverted Simplex

3 component U_Pseudo Go to the “ Evaluation ” and view the design space: A: x1 1.000

0.000

0.000

Design-Expert version 7 1.000

B: x2 0.000

1.000

C: x3 85

A: x1 1.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

1.000

B: x2

Coding is U_Pseudo. Term StdErr**

A B C AB AC BC ABC 0.69

0.69

0.69

3.45

3.45

3.45

27.03

**Basis Std. Dev. = 1.0

VIF

1.74

1.74

1.74

1.94

1.94

1.94

1.75

1.000

C: x3

Ri-Sq

0.4255

0.4255

0.4255

0.4844

0.4844

0.4844

0.4300

Inverted Simplex

Note the Improved Values A: x1 1.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

1.000

B: x2

Coding is L_Pseudo. Term StdErr**

A B C AB AC BC ABC 26.33

26.33

26.33

104.19

104.19

104.19

216.27

**Basis Std. Dev. = 1.0

VIF

1550.78

1550.78

1550.78

2686.10

2686.10

2686.10

455.72

1.000

C: x3

Ri-Sq

0.9994

0.9994

0.9994

0.9996

0.9996

0.9996

0.9978

Design-Expert version 7 86

Inverted Simplex

3 component U_Pseudo 1.

Simulate the response using “

I-simplex U_P.sim

” 2.

Model the response.

A: x1 0.100

2 5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

0.300

10.0 11.0 12.0

0.600

0.300

B: x2 Design-Expert version 7 8.0

9.0

0.400

R1 0.000

C: x3 87

Inverted Simplex

Upper vs Lower Bounded Pseudo Values Low becomes high and high becomes low: U_Pseudo L_Psuedo 14 12 10 8 6 4 A (1.000) B (0.000) 14 12 10 8 6 4 A (1.000) B (0.000) C (1.000) C (0.000) C (0.000) A (0.000) A (0.000) C (1.000) B (1.000) B (1.000) Design-Expert version 7 88

Design-Expert version 7

Mixture Design

“Historical Data” 89

D-optimal Design

Coordinate versus Point Exchange There are two algorithms to select “optimal” points for estimating model coefficients: Coordinate exchange Point exchange Design-Expert version 7 90

D-optimal Coordinate Exchange*

Cyclic Coordinate Exchange Algorithm 1.

Start with a nonsingular set of model points.

2.

Step through the coordinates of each design point determining if replacing the current value increases the optimality criterion. If the criterion is improved, the new coordinate replaces the old.

(The default number of steps is twelve. Therefore 13 levels are tested between the low and high factor constraints; usually ±1.)

3.

The exchanges continue and cycle through the model points until there is no further improvement in the optimality criterion.

* R.K. Meyer, C.J. Nachtsheim (1995), “

The Coordinate-Exchange Algorithm for Constructing Exact Optimal Experimental Designs

”, Technometrics, 37, 60-69 .

Design-Expert version 7 91

Mixture Analysis

 Cox Model; a new mixture parameterization  New screening tools for linear models:  Constraint Region Bounded Component Effects for Piepel Direction  Constraint Region Bounded Component Effects for Cox Direction  Constraint Region Bounded Component Effects for Orthogonal Direction  Range Adjusted Component Effects for Orthogonal Direction (this is the only measure in v6) Design-Expert version 7 92

Mixture Analysis

Cox Model  Cox model option for mixtures: May be more informative for formulators when they are interested in a particular composition.

Design-Expert version 7 93

Screening Designs

Component Effects Concepts  Basis for screening is a linear model:

  

x 1 1

 

2 x 2

 

3 x 3

   

q x q  In a mixture it is impossible to change one component while holding the others fixed.

 Changes in the component of interest must be offset by changes in the other components (so the components still sum to their total).

 Choosing a direction through the mixture space to vary to component of interest defines how the offsetting changes are made.

Design-Expert version 7 94

Screening Designs

Component Effect Directions Three directions in which component effects are assessed: 1.

Orthogonal 2.

Cox 3.

Piepel The most meaningful direction (or directions) to use for computing effects for a particular mixture DOE depends on the shape of the mixture region.

In an unconstrained simplex the Cox and Piepel directions are the same.

In a constrained simplex they’re not!

(Remember the ABS Pipe example.)

Design-Expert version 7 95

Screening Designs

Component Effect Directions Example (equation in actuals) :  1  8x 2  6x 3 A: X1 1.000

9.50

0.000

8.50

9.00

8.00

1.000

B: X2 0.000

R1 Design-Expert version 7 0.000

1.000

C: X3 10.00 9.50 9.00 8.50 8.00 7.50 A (0.800) C (0.100) B (0.800) B (0.100) A (0.100) C (0.800) 96

X 2 Design-Expert version 7

Screening Designs

Orthogonal Direction Component Effect X 1 Trace (Orthogonal) 10.00

9.50

9.00

8.50

B A 8.00

C C A B 7.50

-0.143

-0.071

0.000

0.071

0.143

Deviation from Reference Blend (L_Pseudo Units) X 3 97

Orthogonal Component Effects

Range Adjusted versus Constraint Bounded

Component

A-X1 B-X2 C-X3

Bounded Effect 0.60

0.00

-0.30

Adjusted Effect 1.80

0.00

-0.30

In constrained mixtures the “Adjusted” effect is almost never realized.

Design-Expert version 7 98

Orthogonal Component Gradients

Constraint Bounded

Component

A-X1 B-X2 C-X3

Gradient at Base Pt.

3.00

0.00

-3.00

A has a positive slope B has no slope C has a negative slope Trace (Orthogonal) 10.00

9.50

9.00

B 8.50

A 8.00

C Slope = 3.0

C A B 7.50

-0.143

-0.071

0.000

0.071

0.143

Deviation from Reference Blend (L_Pseudo Units) Design-Expert version 7 99

X 2 Design-Expert version 7 X 1

Screening Designs

Cox Direction Component Effect Trace (Cox) 10.00

9.50

9.00

B 8.50

8.00

A C C B A 7.50

-0.286

-0.143

0.000

0.143

0.286

Deviation from Reference Blend (L_Pseudo Units) X 3 100

Component

A-X1 B-X2 C-X3

Gradient at Base Pt.

2.50

-0.91

-2.94

Component

A-X1 B-X2 C-X3

Component Effect

1.00

-0.33

-0.29

Cox Component Effects

Constraint Bounded Trace (Cox) 10.00

9.50

9.00

B A 8.50

8.00

A C C Slope = 2.5

B 7.50

-0.286

-0.143

0.000

0.143

0.286

Deviation from Reference Blend (L_Pseudo Units) Design-Expert version 7 101

X 2 Design-Expert version 7

Screening Designs

Piepel Direction Component Effect X 1 Trace (Piepel) 10.00

A 9.50

B 9.00

C C 8.50

B 8.00

A 7.50

-0.500

-0.250

0.000

0.250

0.500

Deviation from Reference Blend (L_Pseudo Units) X 3 102

Component

A-X1 B-X2 C-X3

Gradient at Base Pt.

2.25

-1.43

-2.92

Component

A-X1 B-X2 C-X3

Component Effect

1.35

-1.00

-0.29

Piepel Component Effects

Constraint Bounded Trace (Piepel) 10.00

A 9.50

B 9.00

8.50

8.00

C C Slope = 2.25

B A 7.50

-0.500

-0.250

0.000

0.250

0.500

Deviation from Reference Blend (L_Pseudo Units) Design-Expert version 7 103

Summary

Component Effect Directions 1. Orthogonal : The direction for the i th component along a line that is orthogonal to space spanned by the other q-1 components.

Appropriate only for simplex regions.

2. Cox : The direction for the i th component along a line joining the reference blend to the i th vertex (in real values). The line is also extended in the opposite direction to its end point.

Appropriate for all regions.

3. Piepel : The same as the Cox direction after applying the pseudo component transformation.

Appropriate for all regions.

Design-Expert version 7 104

What’s New

 General improvements  Design evaluation     Diagnostics Updated graphics Better help Miscellaneous Cool New Stuff  Factorial design and analysis  Response surface design  Mixture design and analysis 

Combined design and analysis

Design-Expert version 7 105

Combined Design

Design:  Big new feature: combine two mixture designs!

Analysis:   New fit summary layout.

New model graphs: • • Mix-Process contour plot Mix-Process 3D plot Design-Expert version 7 106

Combined Design

Design-Expert version 7 107

Combined Design: Analysis

New Fit Summary Layout

Order Abbreviations in Fit Summary Table

M = Mean L = Linear Q = Quadratic SC = Special Cubic C = Cubic

Combined Model Mixture Process Fit Summary Table Sequential p-value Mix Process Mix Process Lack of Fit Summary Statistics Adjusted Predicted Order

M

Order

M

R-Squared R-Squared

M M M M L 2FI Q C * * < 0.0001

0.9550

* * 0.6965

0.0027

0.0024

0.0024

0.0023

0.3929

0.3630

0.3630

0.3528

0.3393

0.2678

0.2678

0.2418

M L L L L L M M L 2FI Q C < 0.0001

< 0.0001

< 0.0001

* < 0.0001

* < 0.0001

< 0.0001

0.5856

* * 0.7605

0.0032

0.1534

0.1415

0.1415

0.1280

0.4350

0.9042

0.9013

0.9013

0.8966

0.3825

0.8715

0.8142

0.8142

0.7536

Aliased Aliased Aliased Aliased Design-Expert version 7 108

Design-Expert® Software Ave T exture 4.13

0.58

X1 = A: mullet X2 = B: sheepshead X3 = D: oven temp Actual Component C: croaker = 33.333

Actual Factors E: oven time = 32.50

F: deep fry = 32.50

425.00

Combined Design: Analysis

Mix-Process Contour Plot Ave Texture 2.50

412.50

2.25

1.75

400.00

2.00

1.50

387.50

375.00

Actual mullet 0.00

Actual sheepshead 66.67

16.67

50.00

33.33

33.33

50.00

16.67

66.67

0.00

Design-Expert version 7 109

Combined Design: Analysis

Mix-Process 3D Plot Design-Expert® Software Ave T exture 4.13

0.58

X1 = A: mullet X2 = B: sheepshead X3 = D: oven temp Actual Component C: croaker = 33.333

Actual Factors E: oven time = 32.50

F: deep fry = 32.50

Design-Expert version 7 2.70 2.35 2.00 1.65 1.30 425.00 412.50 400.00 D: oven temp 387.50 375.00 0.00

66.67

66.67

0.00

50.00

16.67

33.33

33.33

16.67

50.00

A: mullet B: sheepshead 110