Transcript infrastructureafrica.org

1
SADC’s Infrastructure:
A Regional Perspective
Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostic:
a multi-stakeholder effort
Methodology and approach
 Methodology
 Data collection by local/international consultants and Bank staff
based on standardized methodology
 Baseline year for data is 2006, does not reflect subsequent
evolution
 Approach
 Focus on benchmarking SADC’s infrastructure against other
African RECs and benchmarking SADC member countries with
each other
Key Message #1
Infrastructure could be
contributing much more to
Southern Africa’s growth
Infrastructure contributed to over one percentage
point to Southern Africa’s recent growth spurt
Catching-up on infrastructure could boost growth
by three percentage points
Key Message #2
Southern Africa enjoys
concentration of MICs and several
(potentially) strong economies
A more hopeful economic geography
SADC faces all the standard challenges
10 countries have economies <$10 billion
6 countries have populations <10 million
6 countries are landlocked
Multiple trans-boundary river basins
But also enjoys some advantages
5 Middle Income Countries
Half a dozen large (or potentially large) economies
Strong gravitational pull of South Africa
Topographical profile of SADC countries
Spatial distribution of economic activity
Key Message #3
Road freight costs reasonably
competitive but trade facilitation
adds high margins
Road freight transport performance is best in Africa
but still expensive by global standards
Trade
Implicit
Road in good
density
Freight tariff
velocity(km
condition (%) (US$m per
($US/tonne-km)
/hr)
km)
Corridor
Length
(kms)
Western
2050
72
8.2
6.0
0.08
Central
3280
49
4.2
6.1
0.13
Eastern
2845
82
5.7
8.1
0.07
Southern
5000
100
27.9
11.6
0.05
Corridors are almost entirely paved
and in reasonable condition
Condition
Type
Good(%)
Fair(%)
Poor(%) Paved(%)
Gaborone to Durban
97
0.5
0
100
Harare to Durban
73
25
2
100
Lusaka to Durban
62
35
3.
100
Lubumbashi to Durban
60
35
5
100
Lilongwe to Nacala
27
60
13
61
Harare to Beira
0
72
0
100
Gaborone to Walvis Bay
59
17
0
100
Lubumbashi to Lobito
38
31
31
68
Condition of main regional corridors
High levels of traffic concentrated mainly along
the corridors that connect to Durban
Percentage in traffic bands (AADT)
<300
300-1000
>1000
Gaborone to Durban
3
0
97
Harare to Durban
2
3
95
Lusaka to Durban
2
6
92
Lubumbashi to Durban
5
6
89
Lilongwe to Nacala
65
0
35
Harare to Beira
66
0
44
Gaborone to Walvis Bay
12
44
44
Traffic flows along main regional corridors
Some alternatives to Durban apparently
look quite interesting as export routes
Alternatives to Durban less attractive for imports
Delays at borders greatly slow down speed of
road transit
• Journey of 3,000 kilometers from Lusaka to
Durban takes 8 days
– 4 days of travel time
– 4 days spent at border crossings.
• Though trucks run at 50-60 kms/hr effective
speed is no more than 12 kms/hr
• Cost of delays for an eight axle interlink truck
estimated at US$300/day (or US$50 mn/yr)
Key Message #4
Southern Africa’s regional road
network generally very good,
with only couple of exceptions
Network generally in reasonable condition
except for stretches in DRC, Zambia
Traffic flows visibly concentrated on northsouth axis with much less on east-west
Very strong performance on regional roads
across SADC with few exceptions
Condition (%)
Type (%)
Good
Fair
Poor
Paved
Angola
71
5
24
71
Botswana
41
8
DRC
14
13
73
18
Madagascar
60
25
15
78
Mozambique
13
59
28
78
Malawi
62
33
5
95
Namibia
49
41
10
100
Swaziland
58
42
0
100
Tanzania
45
36
19
60
South Africa
88
4
8
99
Zambia
52
14
44
99
Zimbabwe
0
100
0
100
SADC
47
24
29
74
100
Key Message #5
Southern Africa enjoys extensive
regional rail network but border
crossings remain problematic
Interconnection of seven national rail networks
creates an extensive regional network
Southern African railways generally perform
relatively well (with some notable exceptions)
Labor
Locomotive
productivity productivity
Carriage
productivity
Wagon
productivity
Freight
yield
Passenger
yield
Angola, CFM
580
30
4,046
950
BR, Botswana
722
41
2,391
987
Congo DRC, SNCC
38
4
275
317
13
3
Malawi, CEAR
131
3
1,176
82
6
1
Mozambique, CCFB
281
13
750
476
3
1
Mozambique, CDN
710
25
3,333
260
5
1
Namibia, Transnamib
484
25
805
3,308
33
913
Zambia, RSZ
502
25
4
1
Zimbabwe, NRZ
390
8
Railway Concessions
350
23
5
2
South Africa, Spoornet
3,286
377
195
2,945
491
Most railways outside South Africa and
Zimbabwe are only lightly used
Tardy locomotive exchange at borders greatly
slows down speed of rail transit
• Journey of 3,000 kms from Kolwezi (DRC) to
Durban (RSA) takes 38 days:
– 9 days of travel time
– 29 days associated with customs clearance and
(primarily) loading and interchange
• Though trains run at 25-30 kms/hr effective
velocity is no more than 4 kms/hr
• Cost of delays estimated at US$205 per day per
freight wagon (or US$120mn/yr)
Key Message #6
Port of Durban plays a dominant
role in regional trading patterns
Despite numerous ports traffic highly
concentrated in Durban
Southern African ports though best in Africa
lag global price and productivity benchmarks
East Africa
Southern West /Central
Africa
Africa
Global best
practice
Performance
Container Dwell Time (days)
5–28
4–8
11–30
<7
Truck Processing Time (hours)
4–24
2–12
6–24
1
Crane Productivity (containers per hour)
8–20
8–22
7–20
20–30
Crane Productivity (tonnes per hour)
8–25
10–25
7–15
>30
135–275
110–243
100–320
80–150
6–15
11–15
8–15
7–9
Charges
Container handling (US$ per TEU)
General cargo handling charge (US$ per
tonne)
Efficiency of ports in South Africa and Namibia
far above rest but costs are high
Cape
East
Port
Town Durban London Elizabeth Walvis Bay
South Africa
Performance
Container dwell time average (days)
Truck processing time for
receipt and delivery of cargo
(hours)
Container crane productivity
(container per hour)
Beira
Luanda
Maputo
Namibia
Mozambique
Angola
Mozambique
6
4
7
6
8
20
12
22
5
5
2
5
3
7
14
4
18
15
8
15
10
7
11
258
258
258
258
110
125
320
155
8
8
8
15
7
9
6
Prices
Container cargo handling
charge (USD per TEU)
General cargo handling
charge (USD per ton)
Key Message #7
Relatively advanced air transport
market despite slower
market liberalization
Strong hub and spoke structure evident
around Johannesburg
Annual seats, domestic (number)
Annual seats, international within
SSA (number)
EAC
CEMAC
SADC
ECOWAS
Southern Africa records high usage and air
transport connectivity
3,075,808
2,034,272
235,305
1,345,217
964,210
362,392
187,287
1,195,775
Domestic city pairs served (number)
International city pairs served
(number)
17
8
4
13
26
20
15
29
Seat-km in old aircraft (% of total)
11
12
5
13
Seat-km in recent aircraft (% of total)
80
87
94
83
Domestic Market Herfindahl Index
0.73
0.84
0.83
0.64
International Market Herfindahl Index
0.34
0.19
0.24
0.25
Overall Market Herfindahl Index
0.42
0.21
0.3
0.27
Steady increase in air transport internal
to SADC region
Southern Africa plays a dominant role in the
top few air transport routes in Africa
Regional air traffic heavily concentrated
on routes from South Africa to Zambia
All countries have relatively frequent
connectivity with South Africa
Angola
1
5
1
Zimbabwe
Zambia
Tanzania
Swaziland
7
2
Botswana
57
3
Congo DRC
7
2
Lesotho
31
Madagascar
8
7
Malawi
Origin
South Africa
Seychelles
Namibia
Mozambique
Mauritius
Malawi
Madagascar
Lesotho
Congo DRC
Botswana
Angola
Destination
8
Mauritius
Mozambiqu
e
Namibia
8
3
3
3
7
71
14
31
9
13
Swaziland
Tanzania
5
Zambia
Zimbabwe
2
3
2
1
10
8
7
16
6
2
63
Seychelles
South Africa
17
20
53
5
2
3
2
67
48
2
46
5
51
6
14
45
2
43
21
89
79
3
2
3
25
29
Aircraft fleet has shifted towards mid-sized
planes rather than smaller planes as elsewhere
Southern Africa has made very limited
progress with air transport liberalization
Community
General status of YD
implementation
Status of air services liberalization
Overall
implementati
on score
AMU
No implementation.
No liberalization within the AMU initiated, but
need is recognized.
1
BAG
Principles of the YD agreed upon in a
multilateral air services agreement.
Up to fifth freedom granted, tariffs are free, and
capacity/frequency is open.
4
CEMAC
Principles of the YD agreed upon in an
air transport program. Some minor
restrictions remain.
Up to fifth freedom granted, tariffs are free, and
capacity/frequency is open. Maximum two carriers 5
per state may take part.
COMESA
Full liberalization agreed upon (“legal
Notice No. 2”), but application and
implementation remain pending until a
joint competition authority is
established.
Pending. Operators will be able to serve any
destination (all freedoms), and tariffs and
capacity/frequency will be free.
3
EAC
EAC council issued a directive to
amend bilaterals among the EAC
states to conform with the YD.
Air services are not liberalized, as the
amendments of bilaterals remain pending.
3
SADC
No steps taken toward
implementation, although the civil
aviation policy includes gradual
liberalization of air services within
the SADC.
No liberalization has been initiated.
2
WAEMU
The YD is fully implemented.
All freedoms, including cabotage, granted. Tariffs
have been liberalized.
5
South African Airlines has significantly lost
market share to subsidiaries and other players
Airline
South African Airways
British Airways P.L.C.
Air Zimbabwe (PVT) Ltd.
Air Botswana Corporation
Air Namibia
Air Mauritius
TAAG Angola Airlines
Zambian Airways
SA Airlink d/b/a South African Airlink
Comair Ltd.
South African Express Airways (Pty) Ltd.
Other
2001
34.7
10.9
7.5
6.6
6.4
4.7
4.2
1.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.9
2004
28.6
0.0
3.6
5.8
9.6
4.1
3.6
0.8
6.3
6.5
7.2
2.5
2007
24.1
0.0
7.9
4.7
7.7
4.5
2.5
7.3
8.0
5.8
5.3
5.2
Air safety standards in Southern Africa vary
substantially across countries
There has been a renewal of the aircraft fleet
over the last few years
Key Message #8
Regional power trade could
save SAPP area US$1 bn pa
(and 40 million tons of CO2)
Regional power transmission network already
relatively advanced in SAPP area
SADC
ECOWAS
CEMAC
COMESA
EAC
SADC has highest availability of power and is
relatively efficient, despite which access is low
9,855
3,912
583
1,085
774
1,214
171
147
114
82
91
165
152
119
132
2
7
5
7
8
19
54
51
43
56
35
50
31
34
23
Growth in access of population to
electricity, annual (%)
1
2
1
1
1
System losses (% of generation)
12
29
31
32
23
Cost recovery ratio, historical (%)
68
79
45
73
69
Collection rate, reported by utility,
electricity (% of billing)
89
71
93
93
94
Total hidden costs (% of revenue)
4
159
107
102
65
Installed generation capacity (MW)
Generation, net, per capita, annual
(kWh/capita/year)
Outages, number, annually
(number/year)
Outages, value lost, annually
(% of sales)
Firms with own generator
(% of firms)
Access (urban, % of population)
SAPP was doing relatively well at meeting
power demand as of 2005
Total net
demand in
2005
Angola
Botswana
Congo, DR
Lesotho
Malawi
Mozambique
Namibia
South Africa
Zambia
Zimbabwe
SAPP
WAPP
EAPP
CAPP
2.1
2.4
4.7
0.4
1.3
11.2
2.6
215
6.3
12.8
258.8
31.3
100.6
10.7
% suppressed
Market
Social demand Total net
demand as a demand 2015 with national demand 2015
share of net
targets 2015
demand (2005)
21
0
7
2
4
4
1
0
2
4
1
42
1
9
6
4
7.4
0.8
1.9
15.7
4.2
316
9
18
383
69.6
144.8
17.1
1.9
0.2
6.2
0.1
0.4
0.7
0.1
3.2
0.4
0.8
14
24.8
24.2
3.1
7.9
4.2
13.6
0.9
2.3
16.4
4.3
319.2
9.3
18.7
396.9
94.3
169
20.2
Deepening regional power trade saves
SAPP $1.1 billion annually
(US$ billion)
Trade expansion
Trade stagnation
7.5
7.5
4.5
4.9
0.4
0
2.6
2.6
Refurbishment
2.6
2.6
Variable cost
8.4
9.4
Total cost
18.4
19.5
New Investment
-Generation
-Inter-connectors
-Distribution
Volume traded has potential to increase from
45 to 146 terra-watt hours a year
Trade Expansion
Source: Authors’ original research.
Trade Stagnation
Many countries need to invest in cross-border
interconnectors and a few in additional hydro
(MW)
Interconnectors
Additional hydro
SAPP
23,839
8,912
Angola
2,120
0
Botswana
2,141
0
DRC
5,984
7,640
Lesotho
0
0
Madagascar
0
0
227
0
1,400
900
Namibia
556
0
South Africa
547
0
Swaziland
-
-
Tanzania
266
279
Zambia
7,526
0
Zimbabwe
3,072
93
Malawi
Mozambique
Financial gains? Burden of power spending
needs varies widely depending on trade
One major exporter, and five countries that
could import more than 50 percent of power
Regional power trade increases reliance on
hydro-power saving 40 million tons CO2 a year
Trade expansion
Trade stagnation
Increasing hydro brings annual savings
of 41 million tons of CO2
WAPP
SAPP
EAPP
CAPP
Total
WAPP
Production difference (TWh)
Coal
SAPP
EAPP
CAPP
Total
Emissions savings (M ton)
-41.5
0.7
-40.8
-37.8
0.6
-37.2
Diesel
-0.8
-0.3
0.3
-0.8
-0.6
-0.2
0.2
-0.6
Gas
-9.2
-5.3
-42.4
-56.8
-4.7
-2.7
-21.5
-28.9
HFO
0.2
0.1
Hydro
11.5
Total
1.6
0.4
-4.9
-4.3
47.5
43.4
5.1
107
0.5
2.4
0.3
4.7
0.3
-3.6
-3.2
0
-5.2
-40.7
-20.4
-3.6
-69.9
Economic gains? Trade shaves about one cent
per kilowatt-hour from cost of power
(US cents/kWh)
Trade expansion
Trade stagnation
Difference
CAPP
7
9
-2
EAPP
12
12
0
SAPP
6
7
-1
WAPP
18
19
-1
Angola
6
11
-5
Botswana
6
6
0
DRC
4
4
0
Lesotho
6
7
-1
Malawi
5
5
0
Mozambique
4
6
-2
Namibia
11
12
-1
South Africa
6
7
-1
Zambia
8
8
0
Zimbabwe
8
9
0
Rate of return on regional power trade
infrastructure can be very high
Country
Price
Net power
gain
trade
(US$/kWh)
(TWh)
Annual
benefits
(US$mn pa)
One time
investment
(US$mn)
Rate of
Return
(%)
EXPORTERS
Congo, Dem. Rep.
0.04
49.6
2,381
7,480
32
Mozambique
0.04
3.1
149
2,156
7
Angola
0.05
6.0
395
870
45
Botswana
<.01
4.3
0
100
0
Lesotho
0.01
0.7
90
0
NA
Malawi
<.01
1.5
0
10
0
Namibia
0.01
3.8
43
300
14
South Africa
0.01
36.4
3,192
10
319
Zambia
<.01
0.01
1.8
0
187
1,420
370
0
51
IMPORTERS
Zimbabwe
3.5
Key Message #9
Completing regional fiber optic
backbone is low hanging fruit
with potentially high returns
Southern Africa’s regional fiber optic backbone
in the midst of major expansion
Access to ICT is relatively good but the region
faces high prices for critical services
Broadband subscribers (per 100
inhabitants)
International Internet bandwidth
(per capita)
Internet subscribers (per 100
inhabitants)
Main telephone lines outside
largest city (per 100 inhabitants)
Mobile telephone subscribers (per
100 inhabitants)
Prices (US$)
Prepaid mobile monthly price
basket
Price of a 3 minute call to USA
Price of the 20 hour Internet
basket
Price of the fixed telephone
monthly price basket
SADC
ECOWAS
CEMAC
COMESA
EAC
0.36
0.03
0.01
0.04
0.02
19
16
11
9
11
0.53
0.24
0.06
0.09
0.05
1.89
0.39
0.2
0.53
0.24
31
25
22
12
21
11.32
1.5
14.04
0.83
15.11
5.68
9.09
2.2
12.18
1.37
75.6
79.98
67.97
50.91
95.7
13.27
9.35
12.59
6.85
13.33
Substantially cheaper to call within SADC
than elsewhere in SSA
Madagascar
Orange
Q
Q
Malawi
Zain
Mauritius
EMTEL
Mozambique
Mcell
Namibia
MTC
Seychelles
C&W
South Africa
Vodacom
Swaziland
MTN
Tanzania
Vodacom
Zambia
Zain
Zimbabwe
Econet
l
l
Zimbabwe
Q
Zambia
Q
Tanzania
Vodacom
Swaziland
Lesotho
South Africa
Q
Seychelles
Q
Namibia
Vodacom
Mozambique
DRC
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Mauritius
Orange
Malawi
Botswana
Madagascar
Unitel
Lesotho
Angola
DRC
Botswana
Angola
Operator
Significant progress with intra-regional roaming
but mainly on post-paid plans
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
l
l
Q
l
l
Q
l
l
Q
Q
Q
l
l
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
l
Q
l
l
Q
Q
l
l
Q
l
Q
Q
Q
Q
l
Q
l
l
l
Q
Q
l
Q
Q
Q
l
Q
l
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Angola
Botswana
Congo, DR
Lesotho
Madagascar
Malawi
Mauritius
Mozambique
Namibia
Seychelles
South Africa
Swaziland
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
TOTAL
25%
54%
53%
100%
72%
40%
99%
51%
88%
51%
70%
68%
100%
100%
50%
98%
100%
100%
34%
100%
75%
65%
30%
100%
3
3
60%
79%
5
65%
51%
100%
4
60%
2
5
2
6
Total
Other
Telecom,
Portugal
Vodafone (UK)
Orascom
(Egypt)
MTN (South
Africa)
(Zain,MTC
Kuwait)
Millicom
(Luxembourg)
Telecom
(France)
No single operator dominates region, but
several have important multi-country presence
1
2
4
1
3
1
2
1
2
2
3
1
4
2
1
Until recently only three countries were
connected to submarine cable
Situation is changing rapidly with completion
of various cables along the east coast
Despite submarine connections, costs of ICT services are
high due to lack of competition in international gateways
Share of
Price per minute
Price per
Price for 20 hours
countries
for a call within
minute for a
per month of dial-up
(%)
No access to
Sub-Saharan ($) call to US ($)
Internet access ($)
67
1.34
0.86
67.95
32
0.57
0.48
47.28
16
0.70
0.72
37.36
16
0.48
0.23
36.62
submarine cable
Access to
submarine cable
Monopoly
international
gateway
Competitive
international
gateways
Southern Africa can complete a basic regional
fiber optic network with modest investments
Angola
Congo DR
Lesotho
Madagascar
Malawi
Mozambique
South Africa
Tanzania
Zimbabwe
Total
Gaps
(kms)
782
1,781
2
637
477
21
12
1,220
226
5,158
Necessary
investment
(US$mn)
21
48
<1
17
13
1
<1
33
6
139
Completing regional fiber optic backbone
looks to be a very high return investment
Broadband price
(US$/mo.)
Baseline 2008 Induced
Angola
98
Lesotho
31
Madagascar
63
Malawi
308
Mozambique
50
South Africa
17
Tanzania
40
Broadband Subscriptions
(‘000s)
Baseline 2008
16
0.10
4
3
10
426
6
Benefts
Costs
Rate of
Induced (US$mn/yr) (US$mn) Return (%)
65
28.6
21.0
135
7
0.8
0.1
1,629
11
3.3
17.0
19
1
4.9
13.0
37
14
4.4
1.0
443
2126
154.4
12.0
1,287
44
7.1
0.3
2,231
Key Message #10
Regional spending needs of
$2.1 billion a year affordable for
region but insurmountable for
some countries
Achieving regional integration would take
$2.1 billion a year mainly in power investment
Transport
Angola
Botswana
Congo DRC
Lesotho
Madagascar
Malawi
Mozambique
Mauritius
Namibia
Seychelles
South Africa
Swaziland
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
SADC
ICT
Power
Inv
O&M
Inv
O&M
Inv
34
12
139
0
15
2
14
0
37
0
11
11
28
10
4
319
36
23
69
0
23
11
36
0
34
0
79
26
32
34
7
409
2
0
5
0
2
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
88
9
748
?
0
0
3
?
0
0
0
1
14
0
1
1
216
0
30
0
2
0
44
141
73
1,352
Total
Needs
Total
O&M
0
Inv
O&M
Total
Needs
125
21
892
0
17
5
229
0
67
36
23
69
0
23
11
36
0
34
160
44
961
0
40
16
265
0
101
14
11
76
151
77
1,685
79
26
32
34
7
410
93
37
108
185
84
2,095
Regional spending needs just 0.6% of GDP, but
burden weights very heavily on a few nations
Regional spending needs look high relative to
historic infrastructure spending in some cases
Regional integration in surface transport:
achievements, challenges and promise
Sector
Achievements
Challenges
Roads
Road are paved and in good quality
along several major intra-regional
corridors
Corridors that do not
connect landlocked
countries to the port of
Durban have poor quality
roads
Ports
Several ports particularly in South
Africa and Namibia have attained
global good practices in terms of
efficiency.
Ports charge very high
prices for container and
cargo handling
Rails
Spoornet in South Africa is the best
performing railway network in the
continent. Most railways in the
region have higher performance
standards than railway benchmarks
for non-state owned rails
All railways other than those
in South Africa and
Zimbabwe have low traffic
density
Promise of regional
integration
Regional integration in air transport:
achievements, challenges and promise
Sector
Achievements
Challenges
Air Transport
High levels of inter-regional
connectivity across the REC
and heavily concentrated
around Johannesburg and
Lusaka
Very little progress
on achieving
liberalization of the
air transport sector
Promise of regional
integration
Regional integration in power:
achievements, challenges and promise
Sector
Achievements
Electrification rates are
high relative to other
regions.
Power
Principle of regional trade
already well established
Challenges
Utility collection rate is
amongst the lowest in
the continent
Promise of regional
integration
Deepening regional
integration would save the
SAPP area US$1 billion in
annual energy costs, and
annual savings in carbon
emissions of some forty
million tons of carbon.
Long-run marginal cost of
power in the SAPP would
fall by US$0.01 per
kilowatt-hour.
The overall rate of return
on regional integration
investments is 168%.
Regional integration in ICT :
achievements, challenges and promise
Sector
Achievements
Access to ICT services
amongst highest in Africa.
ICT
Significantly cheaper to call
within SADC than it is to call
the US or outside the REC
Associated regional telecom
regulators have been active
in promoting harmonization.
Challenges
Promise of regional
integration
Despite the lowest prices in
the continent, countries face
relatively high prices.
Several countries are not
connected to the submarine
cable
Even where submarine
connections exist costs
remain relatively high due to
lack of competition on the
international gateways.
Achieving regional integration
of ICT will cost only US$139
million for the next decade but
could yield very high returns on
the investment