Transcript Masters Leadership Program

Demographic Characteristics
and Trends In Texas and San
Antonio
CPE Expo
December 4, 2012
San Antonio, TX
Growing States, 2000-2010
2000
Population*
United States
2010
Population*
Numerical
Change
2000-2010
Percent
Change
2000-2010
281,421,906
308,745,538
27,323,632
9.7%
Texas
20,851,820
25,145,561
4,293,741
20.6%
California
33,871,648
37,253,956
3,382,308
10.0%
Florida
15,982,378
18,801,310
2,818,932
17.6%
Georgia
8,186,453
9,687,653
1,501,200
18.3%
North Carolina
8,049,313
9,535,483
1,486,170
18.5%
Arizona
5,130,632
6,392,017
1,261,385
24.6%
65% (2.8 million) of this change can be attributed to growth
of the Hispanic population
Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 and 2010.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count.
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Total Population and Components of
Population Change in Texas, 1950-2011
Percent Change
Due to
Year*
Population
Numerical
Change
--
Percent
Change
--
Natural
Increase
--
Net
Migration
1950
7,711,194
--
1960
9,579,677
1,868,483
24.2
93.91
6.09
1970
11,196,730
1,617,053
16.9
86.74
13.26
1980
14,229,191
3,032,461
27.1
41.58
58.42
1990
16,986,510
2,757,319
19.9
65.85
34.15
2000
20,851,820
3,865,310
22.8
49.65
50.35
2010
25,145,561
4,293,741
20.6
54.94
45.06
2011
25,674,681
529,120
2.1
55.41
44.59
* All values for the decennial dates are for April 1st of the indicated census year. Values for 2011 are for July 1 as estimated by the
U.S. Census Bureau.
Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio.
Note: Residual values have been averaged across natural increase and net migration.
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The 10 Counties with the Largest Numeric
Increase from April 1, 2010, to July 1, 2011
Numeric
Increase
1.
Harris, Texas
88,452
2.
Los Angeles, Calif.
70,451
3.
Maricopa, Ariz.
63,127
4.
Miami-Dade, Fla.
58,331
5.
Riverside, Calif.
49,979
6.
Dallas, Texas
47,875
7.
Orange, Calif.
45,513
8.
San Diego, Calif.
44,756
9.
Bexar, Texas
41,376
10.
Tarrant, Texas
40,776
Texas contains eight of the 25 counties with the highest numerical gains
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012
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Job Growth
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Contributions to Year-to-Date Job Growth
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Estimated Annual Net Migration to Texas, 2000
to 2009
250,000
International
State-to-State
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
2000 to 2001 to 2002 to 2003 to 2004 to 2005 to 2006 to 2007 to 2008 to
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 2009 Estimates
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Estimated Annual Net Migration to Texas,
2000 to 2010
250000
200000
International
150000
Domestic
100000
50000
Hurricane Katrina
0
2000-2001 2001-2002 2002-2003 2003-2004 2004-2005 2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010
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Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 2010 Estimates
Percent of Migrants to Texas between 2000
and 2009 by Race and Ethnicity
52% of all migrants were
international
100%
5%
90%
80%
23%
18%
12%
8%
15%
70%
60%
67% of all
migrants
28%
50%
50%
40%
40%
Other
30%
Black
20%
10%
44%
24%
33%
Hispanic
White
0%
Net domestic
International
migration
migration
(848,702 migrants ) (933,083 migrants)
Total
Sources: Percentages of domestic and international migrants by race and ethnicity derived from the 2006-2008 American Community Survey. Total numbers of domestic and international migrants
9 1, 2009,
between 2000-2009 are from Table 4. Cumulative Estimates of the Components of Resident Population Change for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2000 to July
U.S. Census Bureau
Estimated domestic migration (2000-2008) by
county as a percentage of 2000 population
Legend
-20 to -45%
-19 to -10%
-9 to -5%
-4 to 0%
1 to 5 %
6 to 20%
21 to 30%
31 to 65%
Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, 2009. Map produced by the Texas State Data Center
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Estimated international migration (2000-2008) by
county as a percentage of 2000 population
Legend
0-1%
1-2.5%
2.5-3.5%
3.5-5%
5-10%
Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, 2009. Map produced by the Texas State Data Center
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http://www.forbes.com/special-report/2011/migration.html
http://www.forbes.com/special-report/2011/migration.html
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http://www.forbes.com/special-report/2011/migration.html
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States with Largest Estimated
Unauthorized Immigrant Populations, 2010
State
Estimate
(thousands)
Range
California
2,550
(2,350 - 2,750)
Texas
1,650
(1,450 - 1,850)
Florida
825
(725 - 950)
New York
625
(525 - 725)
New Jersey
550
(425 - 650)
Illinois
525
(425 - 625)
Georgia
425
(300 - 550)
Arizona
400
(275 - 500)
Source: Pew Hispanic Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to March Supplements to the Current Population Survey (February 1, 2011).
6.5% of
Texas’ 2010
Population
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Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition,
2000 and 2010
2000
2010
Hispanic
or Latino
32%
Hispanic
or Latino
38%
NH
White
53%
NH
Other
4% NH Black
11%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census count
NH
Other
6%
NH
White
45%
NH Black
11%
0
Age
Under 1 year
4 years
8 years
12 years
16 years
20 years
24 years
28 years
32 years
36 years
40 years
44 years
48 years
52 years
56 years
60 years
64 years
68 years
72 years
76 years
80 years
84 years
88 years
92 years
96 years
100 to 104…
Population
Texas White (non-Hispanic) and
Hispanic Populations by Age, 2010
250000
200000
White (non-Hispanic)
150000
Hispanic
100000
50000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
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Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
Male White, Non-Hispanic
Female White, Non-Hispanic
100 to 104 years
95 years
90 years
85 years
80 years
75 years
70 years
65 years
60 years
55 years
50 years
45 years
40 years
35 years
30 years
25 years
20 years
15 years
10 years
5 years
Under 1 year
200,000
150,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
100,000
50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
18
200,000
Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
Male Hispanic
Male Black, Non-Hispanic
Male Asian, Non-Hispanic
Male Other, Non Hispanic
Female Hispanic
Female Black, Non-Hispanic
Female Asian, Non-Hispanic
Female Other, Non Hispanic
100 to 104 years
95 years
90 years
85 years
80 years
75 years
70 years
65 years
60 years
55 years
50 years
45 years
40 years
35 years
30 years
25 years
20 years
15 years
10 years
5 years
Under 1 year
200,000
150,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
100,000
50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
19
200,000
Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
Male White, Non-Hispanic
Male Hispanic
Male Black, Non-Hispanic
Male Asian, Non-Hispanic
Male Other, Non Hispanic
Female White, Non-Hispanic
Female Hispanic
Female Black, Non-Hispanic
Female Asian, Non-Hispanic
Female Other, Non Hispanic
100 to 104 years
95 years
90 years
85 years
80 years
75 years
70 years
65 years
60 years
55 years
50 years
45 years
40 years
35 years
30 years
25 years
20 years
15 years
10 years
5 years
Under 1 year
200,000
150,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
100,000
50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
20
200,000
Legend
co48_d00
Total Population by County, 2010
'PROJECTIONS X$'.totpop10
82 - 10,000
10,001 - 50,000
50,001 - 100,001
100,001 - 500,001
500,001 - 1,000,000
1,000,001 - 4,100,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census
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Change of the Total Population by County,
2000 to 2010
Legend
co48_d00
'PROJECTIONS X$'.totpopch0010
-3,200 - 0
1 - 10,000
10,001 - 50,000
50,001 - 100,000
100,001 - 700,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 and 2010 Decennial Census
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Percent Change of Total Population in Texas
Counties, 2000-2010
Water
'PROJECTIONS X$'.pctch0010
-20%-0%
1%-10%
10.1-25%
25.1%-50%
50.1%-82%
Physicians per 1,000 Population 2010
'PROJECTIONS X$'.difphys
-3 to -0.5
-0.49 to -.001
0
.001 to .5
.51-2.1 for
Population increase
Texas was 20.6%
during this period
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 Decennial Census
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Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2010-2050
Migration Scenarios
60,000,000
Zero
55,000,000
.5 of 2000-2010
50,000,000
2000-2010
45,000,000
40,000,000
35,000,000
30,000,000
25,000,000
20,000,000
2010
2015
2020
2025
Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
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Projected Population Change, Texas
tl_2010_48_county10
Counties, 2010-2050
Legend
F6
-6,200 - 0
1 - 2,000
2,001 - 10,000
10,001 - 100,000
100,001 - 1,000,000
1,000,001 -3,480,000
Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections . 2000-2010 Migration Scenario
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Projected
Percent
Population
Legend
Change, Texas Counties, 2010-2050
tl_2010_48_county10
F5
LT 0%
0-40%
41-100%
101-250%
251-500%
Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections . 2000-2010 Migration Scenario
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Projected Population Growth in San Antonio SMSA
Counties, 2010-2050
3,500,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
Atascosa
Bandera
Bexar
Comal
Guadelupe
Kendall
Medina
Wilson
0
Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections . 2000-2010 Migration Scenario
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Projected Population Growth in San Antonio
SMSA Counties, 2010-2050
450,000
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
Atascosa
Bandera
Comal
200,000
Guadelupe
150,000
Kendall
100,000
Medina
50,000
Wilson
0
Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections . 2000-2010 Migration Scenario
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Projected Population Growth in San Antonio
SMSA Counties, 2010-2050
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
Atascosa
Bandera
Kendall
40,000
20,000
Medina
Wilson
0
Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections . 2000-2010 Migration Scenario
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Population Growth in San Antonio MSA,
1980-2050
County
Bexar
Guadalupe
Comal
Wilson
Kendall
Medina
Atascosa
Bandera
Total
1980
988,800
46,708
36,446
16,756
10,635
23,164
25,055
7,084
1990
1,185,394
64,873
51,832
22,650
14,589
27,312
30,533
10,562
2000
1,392,931
89,023
78,021
32,408
23,743
39,304
38,628
17,645
2010
1,714,773
131,533
108,472
42,918
33,410
46,006
44,911
20,485
2050
3,180,782
424,870
317,376
108,349
90,187
89,271
87,117
31,742
% Change
2010-2050
85%
223%
193%
152%
170%
94%
94%
55%
1,154,648
1,407,745
1,711,703
2,142,508
4,329,694
102%
Sources: 1980-2010 Census Counts, U.S. Census Bureau. 2050 Projection, Texas State Data Center 2000-2010 Migration Scenario
Educational Attainment in Texas, 2010
Level of Educational
Attainment
High school diploma
or equivalency or
greater
Bachelors or greater
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2010.
Percent of
persons
aged 25 State Ranking
years and
older
80.7%
49/50 (tied
with CA)
25.9%
31
31
Race/Ethnic Composition by Education Level
aged 25 years and more, Texas, 2009
3%
9%
19%
15%
6%
8%
67%
71%
Less Than High School
Source: Derived from 2009 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates by the Office of the State Demographer.
College and Greater
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Projected Percent of Labor Force by Educational
Attainment in Texas, 2000 and 2040
Percent
35
30.1
29
28.7
28.7
30
23.9
25
18.8
18.2
20
12.9
15
10
5.3
4.4
5
0
No High
School Diploma
High School
Graduate
Some
College
2000
* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
2040
Bachelor's
Degree
Graduate/Prof.
Degree
Demographics and Destiny
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Contact
Lloyd Potter, Ph.D.
Office: (512) 463-8390 or (210) 458-6530
Email: [email protected]
Internet: http://osd.state.tx.us
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