Transcript Designing the future

Designing the Future
Zone 6 – beyond the boundary ‘to infinity and beyond’
11th May 2002
Northern Permaculture Gathering
Version 1
Jamie Saunders – http://www.futuresedge.info
Overview
“It is clear that the future is in our hands – or, rather, our minds.”
Peter Russell, 01983
“Future considerations should dwarf the present”
“How do we make long term thinking automatic and common
instead of difficult and rare ?”
Stewart Brand, 01999
“We are all inescapably responsible for our collective future”
Barbara Adam, 01998
“Designing the future”
Edward de Bono, 02001
Jamie Saunders – http://www.futuresedge.info
Content
The design challenge
Time and future generations
The time dimension
The design context
Situational awareness – fitting perceptions to reality
Designing the future - ‘Mindscapes’, Landscapes and Timescapes
Thinking about the future
Anticipating the external environment
Designing with futures
On vision and foresight
Multiple alternative futures
Foresight
What if ? – from crisis management to strategic action
Design process
Design context
Futures-orientated design strategy
Future-proofing the design process
Permaculture designers as futurists? Community leaders?
Jamie Saunders – http://www.futuresedge.info
Sustainable Development – the design challenge
Our journey in the ‘infinite space’ - landscapes
Personal
Community of place / interest
Neighbourhood
Locality / Bio-region
Region
‘Nation’
Continental
Global
Universal
Jamie Saunders – http://www.futuresedge.info
Permaculture – the design challenge
Permaculture
“the conscious design of sustainable systems”
Founded on ‘Earthcare’
LANDSCAPE focused – Local place specific solutions
Design model – ZONING through space
Zone 00 – Personal development
Zone 0 – Home / Building
Zone 1 – Domestic sufficiency {Garden}
Zone 2 – Small domestic stock and orchard
Zone 3 – Main crop, forage, stored food
Zone 4 – Gathering, forage, forestry, pasture
Zone 5 – Wilderness
Zone 6 – beyond the boundary…
Jamie Saunders – http://www.futuresedge.info
Permaculture – the design challenge
BUT
Permaculture also includes the concept of permanence
‘Permanent culture’
- continuity and adaptability through time ?
A perma-culture includes people and their harmonious coevolution within nature…
Ackoff - "A system is not the sum of its parts but rather the product of
its interactions.”
About relationships between VISIBLE AND INVISIBLE elements of life…
Jamie Saunders – http://www.futuresedge.info
Sustainable Development – the design challenge
Meeting the challenge of ‘improving the quality of
life of present and future generations’
Social
Equity
Economic
Social
Economic
THE
THE
PAST
FUTURE
Health
Environment
Wise
resource
use
Environment
TIME
Fragmentation
Integration
Vision &
Foresight
Jamie Saunders – http://www.futuresedge.info
Sustainable Development – time & future generations
Capitals – Social and intellectual (People), Natural (Ecology), Financial
- capital stocks flowing through time…
‘Ecological stewards’ and ‘Time guardians’?
Evolution over time – timescapes
“a timescape perspective stresses the temporal features of living”,
Adam 01998
The future…future generations…our legacy…foresight…futures…future-proofing…
eg UNESCO – Declaration on the Responsibility of Present Generations towards
Future Generations, 01997
http://unesdoc.unesco.org/images/0011/001108/110827eb.pdf
Jamie Saunders – http://www.futuresedge.info
Sustainable Development – the time dimension
Our journey in the ‘infinite game’ - timescape
Today – ‘right here, right now’
Tonight
Tomorrow
Next week
Next month
Next year
Next decade
Next century
Jamie Saunders – http://www.futuresedge.info
…
Sustainable Development – the time dimension
Multiplicity of times
• Clock time, timeless time (no-time), glacial time – Castells, 01997
• World time, standard time and globalised present - Industrial time –
machine, laboratory, economic – Adam, 01998
• Seasonal, rise and fall, dramatic, mythological, expansion /
contraction, cosmic, linear, social-cyclical, timeless (‘out of time’) –
Inayatullah, 01996
• Linear time – Quantitative, technical, electric, institutional,
generational, leisure, bureaucratic
• Cyclical time – death, lunar/solar, biological, sexual, geological,
cultural, mythological, religious, life cycles
• Other time – cosmic, spiral, spiritual
• Timescapes - ‘enable us to see the invisible’, Adam 01998
Jamie Saunders – http://www.futuresedge.info
Sustainable Development – the time dimension
Pace layers of civilisation – Stewart Brand, 01999
Jamie Saunders – http://www.futuresedge.info
Sustainable Development – the time dimension
""Now" is the period in which people feel they live and act and have
responsibility. For most of us, "now" is about a week, sometimes a year.
For some traditional tribes in the American northeast and Australia, "now"
is seven generations back and forward (350 years). Just as the Earth
photographs gave us a sense of "the big here," we need things which gives
people a sense of "the long now."
(That phrase comes from British musician and artist Brian Eno.) Stewart
Brand, Re-framing the problems, 01996
See http://www.longnow.org
"Long-termism rejects the hedonism of Keynes, who famously proclaimed, 'In
the long run we are all dead'. When Keynes voiced his familiar epigram, the
formidable Joan Robinson replied, 'No Maynard, in the long run run each of
us is dead'. A ready awareness of the connections between past, present and
future can be found in subjects as homely as botany. To live with the
inheritance of public policy, Britain needs fewer specialists in making policy
by sound bites and more trained in forestry, or at least having the
temperament to plant trees" - Richard Rose, Demos 6/1996
Jamie Saunders – http://www.futuresedge.info
Sustainable Development – the time dimension
“With respect to sustainability, it is therefore not sufficient to to think
in terms of reproducing the past without simultaneously implicating in
our concerns the innovative and open future”, Adam 01998
“the future cannot be managed on the bases of past experiences”, Adam
01998
“Time-lags and indeterminacy…Trans-generational, invisible, additive
and cumulative effects are rarely studied and tested for in their
temporal extension – how could they be?”, Adam 01998
“Our relationship to time is centrally implicated not only in the
industrial way of life but also in any conscious construction of a
sustainable future”, Adam 01998
Sustainability may require “…a new revolutionary temporality” in which
we actively take control over time, Castells 01997
Jamie Saunders – http://www.futuresedge.info
Sustainable Development – the design context
• Complex, dynamic, interconnected world
• ‘Connexity’ - Mulgan , 01997
• Turbulence in whole system
• Uncertainty, fluidity, unpredictability, navigation vs
proof, certainty, prediction and control
• “Hazard society” - Adam 01998
• Mindscapes – assumptions, perceptions, mindsets
• “…what you see depends upon what you thought
before you looked“, Tribus
• Situational Awareness - “…simply, it’s knowing what is
going on around you.”
Jamie Saunders – http://www.futuresedge.info
Situational Awareness - SA
Research on SA has mainly been concerned with how people acquire and
maintain SA during correct task performance.
The drawback of concentrating solely on correct performance is
illustrated by Kletz (1991). He describes several incidents, mainly from
the chemical industry, in which the operators generated a theory to
explain an abnormal state of the system, and then developed a mindset, or Einstellung, which prevented them from identifying the real
state of the system. The operators simply accepted the first solution
they found as the way to deal with that particular problem.
In so doing they failed to consider whether their solution was the best
possible, and whether it utilised an efficient strategy. Furthermore,
they ignored the possibility of unwanted side effects arising from the
solution they had discovered.
http://www.searchtech.com/articles/hics98.htm
Jamie Saunders – http://www.futuresedge.info
Situational Awareness - SA
“SA depends on the operator’s perception of the situation’s elements.
There are three possible types of situation: the real world situation; the
perceived situation; and the desired, or expected, situation (Boy, 1987).
However, SA cannot be based on perception of all of the elements that
exist in the real world situation. If operators had to control complex
systems—often consisting of thousands of elements—by separately
monitoring and controlling each of the individual elements, they would
simply be overwhelmed by the complexity.”
People “learn to successfully handle complexity by mentally
decomposing the real system into a number of quasi-independent
subsystems (Moray, 1987). The complexity is reduced to manageable
proportions by adopting many-to-one mappings between the real system
and a … mental representation of that system.”
http://www.searchtech.com/articles/hics98.htm
Jamie Saunders – http://www.futuresedge.info
Situational Awareness - SA
“SA is fundamentally concerned with the awareness of the current
(and future) state of the system, any degradation in SA must naturally
fall under the category of an active failure”
Each of the three levels of SA (Endsley, 1995c) has a category of
breakdowns associated with it:
•Level 1 SA: Failure to correctly perceive the situation
•Level 2 SA: Failure to comprehend the situation
•Level 3 SA: Failure to project the situation into the future
SA is highly context-dependent, and the context extends far beyond
what the operator can perceive in the immediate environment.
http://www.searchtech.com/articles/hics98.htm
Jamie Saunders – http://www.futuresedge.info
Designing the future
Mindscape
Foresight
Insight
Timescape
Landscape
Hindsight
Jamie Saunders – http://www.futuresedge.info
Thinking about the future
Beyond the “tyranny of the present”, “culture of immediacy” and the
“culture of urgency” – ‘no future, no roots, only the present’
•“People use their ideas about the future to direct their actions in
the present” Dator, 01998
Explicit awareness to how we conceive, value or discount the future
Early warning systems – ‘forewarned is forearmed’ – but
• often requires response as ‘world’ evolves and change occurs
• degree of speculation, imagination and uncertainty
• disruptive, unsettling, out of ‘comfort zone’,
• social (political) acceptability, leadership & ‘requisite hierarchy’
•Unthinkable, Unspeakable
•Unbelievable, Unexpected, Unimaginable
•Unpalatable, Unpopular ?
Jamie Saunders – http://www.futuresedge.info
Thinking about the future
Mindfulness – ideas-diversity to mirror bio-diversity
• Memes and 6 billion different opinions !
• Watch out for the Seventh Enemy
• “Political inertia and individual blindness” – Ronald Higgins,
01978
Thinking about the Future
“…at the moment fear and uncertainty are leading to some strange
reactions. We have few institutional frameworks for serious thinking
about what the future is bringing. But a more uncertain world makes it
all the more essential to lock future{s?} thinking not only into firms'
{organisations?} strategies but also into the thinking of governments.”
The new enterprise culture, Geoff Mulgan & Perri 6, Demos 8/1996
Jamie Saunders – http://www.futuresedge.info
Anticipating the external environment
• identifying and monitoring change
• Certainties
• Cycles
• Trends & events
• Emerging issues
• Wild cards & surprises
• considering and critiquing the impacts of change
• imagining alternative possible futures
• visioning preferred futures
• planning, team-building & implementing desired change
Schultz, 01997
Jamie Saunders – http://www.futuresedge.info
Designing with futures
Situational awareness
• Environmental and political context
• Vigilance & ‘early warning’– constant attention and alertness
• Adaptability and transition management skills
Environmental / horizon scanning
• Breadth and depth of intelligence gathering
• STEEP – Social, technological, economic, ecological, political
Foresight
• Appraisal of consequences – ‘whole-life cycle’ analysis
• Anticipation, preparation and preparedness
• Vision, alternative futures, options, strategy and tactics
Jamie Saunders – http://www.futuresedge.info
On vision and foresight
Vision: “…imaginative insight, statesmanlike foresight, political
sagacity, {practically wise}
Concise Oxford Dictionary
"Foresight is the ability to see what is emerging.“
Irene Sanders (01998)
Foresight – “to illuminate the choices of the present in the light
of possible futures”
Government Foresight Programme
“Fortune favours the prepared mind”
foresight.gov.uk
Jamie Saunders – http://www.futuresedge.info
Multiple alternative futures
The future or futures…
• Multiple futures
• Possible {art}
• Probable {science}
• Preferable {politics}
Roy Amara, 01978
• Contested futures
Brown et al, 02000
Jamie Saunders – http://www.futuresedge.info
Futures
• Decisions have long term consequences
• Future alternatives imply present choices
• Forward thinking is preferable to crisis management
• Further transformations (surprises) are certain to occur
• Slaughter, 01996
Jamie Saunders – http://www.futuresedge.info
What if ? – from crisis management to strategic action
‘Strategic conversations’
"A modest up-front investment in planning avoids the need to think through
every crisis situation from scratch.“
Kees van der Heijden, 01996
“If you spend your time solving problems and resolving crises, you will have
little time for innovation” Ashley & Morrison , 01996
‘Memories of the future’ -Time paths and options
•“We need to build ourselves a series of ‘memories of the future’ –
anticipation of events that might or might not happen”
•“The only relevant questions about the future are those where we succeed
from shifting the question from whether something will happen to what we
would do if it did happen"
Arie de Geus via http://www.shell.com
Jamie Saunders – http://www.futuresedge.info
What if ? – from crisis management to strategic action
"Artful scenario spinning is a form of convergent thinking about divergent
futures. It ensures not that you are always right about the future but-better--that you are almost never wrong about the future.“
Stewart Brand, 01999
“We increase our chances by widening the range of alternatives we
consider.”
Graham May, 01997
"The result of remaining on the edge is a wider range of strategic options
and a better sense of which option to choose."
Competing on the Edge; Shona Brown; 01998 HBS Press
"For too long, our strategic thinking has kept us confined to the box. It is
now time to jump out of that box, to jump out and grasp the future, not
as something which is inevitable and beyond our control, but rather, as
something we actually create."
The Knowledge Dividend; Rene Tissen; 02000 FT/Prentice Hall
Jamie Saunders – http://www.futuresedge.info
Design Process
Process – methodology e.g. BREDIMR – a planning wheel
B
Boundaries
Resources
R
R
Evaluation
Design
M
E
Install / implement
Maintain
Review & Learn
I
D
Jamie Saunders – http://www.futuresedge.info
Design Process
Evolution through time
• the wheel moves forward – linear progress
B
B
R
R
R
R
M
M
E
E
I
I
D
D
Jamie Saunders – http://www.futuresedge.info
Design Context
Environment
- Opportunities & Threats
STRATEGY
Values
Resources
- Strengths & Weaknesses
E-V-R Congruence – Lead with Vision, John L Thompson, 01997
Jamie Saunders – http://www.futuresedge.info
Futures-orientated Design Strategy
External threats, external opportunities…
K. Eric Drexler, Chairman, Foresight Institute
There are no good excuses for lack of foresight. We've got to be proactive, not just reactive. Environmentalist-architect William McDonough
wrote the following about environmental disasters, but it applies just as
well to Sept. 11 or a future abuse of nanotech: "You can't say it's not part of
your plan that these things happened, because it's part of your de facto
plan. It's the thing that's happening because you have no plan...We own
these tragedies. We might as well have intended for them to occur."
http://www.foresight.org/Sept11/index.html
Jamie Saunders – http://www.futuresedge.info
Future-proofing the design process
Active environmental / horizon scanning & foresight
•‘Continuous iterative interaction’, Adam, 01998
External
opportunities
B
External
threats
R
M
R
Contingency &
continuity planning
E
I
D
Jamie Saunders – http://www.futuresedge.info
Futures-orientated Design Strategy
Consequences, successes, failures, liabilities, precedents, legacies
Critical thinking, fuzzy logic (‘reasoning with vague concepts’, Kosko, 02002),
ingenuity, vulnerability and hazard management and ‘unknown unknowns’
(Homer-Dixon, 02000)
‘Real danger comes from surprises we never expected and that in turn demands
'preparation and preparedness’’
Displaced problems and “unintended consequences and revenge effects”
Tenner, 01996
Resilience, adaptability, redundancy, relative permanence (Yeomans)
Contingency and continuity planning
The future: ‘a matter of choice and chance’
Responsibility with ‘cautionary optimism’, Worpole, 01997
“We have no choice but to live cautiously and precautiously” Adam, 01998
Jamie Saunders – http://www.futuresedge.info
Developing scenarios - assessing design strategies
Futures Wheel
Using the "futures wheel" tool will help you explore the consequences of a trend, event,
emerging issue, or decision. You will discover first-, second- and third-order impacts of a
particular trend, event, or emerging you identified from your environmental scan through
the use of a futures wheel. It will help you organize your thinking concerning the future and
will increase your understanding of the results of your research including, but not limited
to, an environmental scan.
Jamie Saunders – http://www.futuresedge.info
Developing scenarios - assessing design strategies
Steps to developing scenarios (Schwartz, 01999)
High uncertainty
Low impact
High impact
Certainty
Jamie Saunders – http://www.futuresedge.info
Developing scenarios - assessing design strategies
Scenarios - Groundrules
•
Lateral thinking (de Bono) –
•
Exaggerate a trend or pattern of change
•
Wishful thinking
•
Challenge an assumption about the present or the accepted way things
are
•
Distort the normal or mundane; try combining two things never before
combined
•
Reverse constraints and current operating conditions
Jamie Saunders – http://www.futuresedge.info
Developing scenarios - assessing design strategies
Scenario Building : the basic process
•identify three trends of change or emerging issues
•brainstorm the impacts of each trend, one by one
•review the list of impacts from all three trends for two or three minutes
•Cross-impact analysis - consider potential collisions of trends; brainstorm
their impacts for fifteen minutes
•consider the entire list – what is missing ?; cluster groups of impacts of
particular interest
•characterize your infant scenario – Hot news from 2030 !
•1) try to imagine two or three headlines that sum up the tenor of its times,
conflicts, major new players, futures history…
•2) think of a bumper-sticker phrase that captures its essence
•3) if this were a short story, what would be its title?
Wendy Schultz, 01997
Jamie Saunders – http://www.futuresedge.info
Permaculture designers as futurists ?
“The ability to live both in the present and a handful of imagined but
uncertain futures is the basic skill of foresight, planning and
responsibility”
Stewart Brand, 01999
The ‘agent provocateur’ – provocative futures - critical futurist
Wendy Schultz, 01997
Irreverance - Court Jester / Monarch’s Fool
Story-tellers and guides – see speculative fiction writers / sci-fi
‘Time rebels’ , Rifkin, 01987
Futures scouts – pioneers & cartographers of the last ‘wilderness’?
A voice for future generations ?
Who will speak for those yet to be born?
Jamie Saunders – http://www.futuresedge.info
Permaculture designers as futurists ?
“A key role for futurists is therefore to inspire decisionmakers with alternative futures and choices, demonstrating
their technical feasibility, and warning of the consequences
of inaction. But behind every corporate decision there is a
battle for hearts and minds - and they have rules of their
own.”
Closing the deal: how to make organizations act on futures research
Jerome C. Glenn; Theodore J. Gordon; James Dator, Foresight - The
journal of future studies, strategic thinking and policy, 2001 Vol. 3
No. 3 Page: 177 – 189, Emerald
Jamie Saunders – http://www.futuresedge.info
Permaculture designers…community leaders?
A key role for permaculture designers?
“identifying and anticipating the forces that are transforming the
world in we live in and helping people to respond to them. It must
involve and prepare people and communities, at home and at work,
so that they can be partners in change and not its innocent
victims…trying to shape …global, social and economic {and
environmental} changes…”
DTI – role for government
Avoid over-promising and under-delivering
- be pragmatic
Focus on the big picture and long term
- be visionary and hopeful
Jamie Saunders – http://www.futuresedge.info
It’s a people thing…
Passion - Vision, inspiration and imagination
• Purpose, processes, people
• Coherence
• Social ingenuity
• Social capital and governance
• Democracy, politics and governance
• Community and political leadership
• Learning and intellectual capital
• Education for sustainable development
• Citizen 2000
Jamie Saunders – http://www.futuresedge.info
Social Ingenuity
The Ingenuity Gap, Homer-Dixon, 02000
“Complexity of problems outrunning our social/technical ingenuity”
“Social ingenuity is supplied by people at all levels of society…much of
it consists of ideas for solving various kinds of collective action
problems…We need social ingenuity to set up and maintain public and
semi-public goods…social arrangements – social ingenuity, essentially –
are immensely important…
The challenges we face…are tangled, dynamic and barely understood.
Our responses to them require careful deliberation
…the real problem is our inability to resolve key political struggles over
what we want, where we should go and who should benefit… Great
ingenuity is usually needed to design, implement and operate the
political institutions…that enable society to deal with their political
struggles”
Jamie Saunders – http://www.futuresedge.info
Social Capital & Governance
“What is the …bond which will glue the social order together amidst all the centrifugal
forces which are tearing it apart ?”
“Social capital, meaning that stock of shared values and behavioural norms which make
everyday life (and work and markets) possible.
For example, trust, honesty, mutual respect, adherence to commitments undertaken,
acceptance of obligations, reliability, concern for personal reputation - all these
things, and many more, are the preconditions for successful cooperation between
individuals under any system.”
David Howell, 02000
Governance
“Governance is the process by which we collectively solve our problems and meet our
society’s needs. Government is the instrument we use” (Reinventing Government,
Osborne & Gaebler, 01992)
Community Cohesion
“...the need to generate a widespread and open debate about identity, shared values,
and common citizenship as part of the process of building cohesive communities.”
Denham Report, 02001
Jamie Saunders – http://www.futuresedge.info
Democracy, politics and governance
The evolution & re-designing democracy, ‘political’ institutions and processes
“The concrete and challenging task of defining the kind of society that might be possible if
we were to make the right political decisions”
M Taylor, 02001
“Sustainability – which is…a dilemma of collective action – is first and foremost a
political challenge…What sort of politics will most enable humanity to choose its
future?”
The Local Politics of Global Sustainability – Thomas Prugh et al, 02000
Politics
“Politics can simply be defined as the activity by which differing interests within a given
unit of rule are conciliated by giving them a share of power in proportion to their
importance to the welfare and survival of the whole community”
A Political System
A political system “is that type of government where politics proves successful in ensuring
reasonable stability and order”
Bernard Crick, 01962
Jamie Saunders – http://www.futuresedge.info
Community and political leadership
“A very different model of leadership, which does not simply pull
the levers at the top, or command…in times of trouble…Its role in
other words is to steer when steering is necessary, but also to
strengthen the capacity of citizens and communities to govern
themselves.”
Connexity, Geoff Mulgan, 01997
“When it comes to defining modern political leadership, this
illuminating quality, this ability to peer out into the darkness and
make some sense of it, so as to help people at least prepare a little
for what is to come, is the prime quality, by which aspiring and
incumbent leaders should be judged.”
David Howell, The edge of now, 2000
Jamie Saunders – http://www.futuresedge.info
Learning and Intellectual Capital
Learning
“The central task of education is to implant a will and a facility for learning;
it should produce not learned but learning people...In times of drastic
change, it is the learners inherit the future. The learned usually find
themselves equipped to live in a world that no longer exists.”
- Eric Hoffer
“Learning is not compulsory. Neither is survival.”
- W.Edwards Deming
Learning agenda – from ‘static’ dogma to open-mindness with critical thinking
Intellectual capital – personal, organisational, civic
Values and ethics
Jamie Saunders – http://www.futuresedge.info
Education for sustainable development
“Education for sustainable development enables people
to develop the knowledge, values and skills to participate
in decisions about the way that we do things individually
and collectively, both locally and globally, that will
improve the quality of life now without damaging the
planet for the future.”
–
UK Sustainable Development Education Panel, 02000
Jamie Saunders – http://www.futuresedge.info
Citizen 2000
Working out what’s really important
Making intelligent life choices
Acting as well as thinking
Using people power for positive change
Fighting for the right to know
Understanding the bigger picture
Expecting the unexpected
Practising give and take
Knowing happiness
Respecting the living world
Manual 2000 Life choices for the future you want, John Elkington and
Julia Hailes, 01998
Jamie Saunders – http://www.futuresedge.info
Designing the Future
Contact
•
•
•
•
Jamie Saunders
[email protected]
http://www.futuresedge.info
Tel: 01274 501610
Jamie Saunders – http://www.futuresedge.info
Some resources:
• The Clock of the Long Now, Stewart Brand, 01997
• Contested futures, Nik Brown et al, 02000
• 2020 Foresight, Hugh Courtney, 02001
•The Living Company, Arie de Geus, 01999
• Competing for the future, Gary Hamel & C.K. Prahalad, 1994
• Scenarios, Kees van der Heijden, 01996
•The Ingenuity Gap, Thomas Homer-Dixon, 02000
• The Edge of Now, David Howell, 2000
• The Seventh Enemy, Ronald Higgins, 01978
• Heaven in a chip {fuzzy future}, Bart Kosko, 02000
• The future is ours, Graham May, 01996
• Scenario Planning, Gill Ringland, 01997
• Why things Bite Back, Edward Tenner, 01996
• Lead with Vision, John L Thompson, 01997
• Strategic Thinking and the New Science, Irene Sanders, 01998
• http://www.wolfson.ox.ac.uk/~wendy/if.html - Wendy Schultz,01997
• The art of the Long View, Peter Schwartz, 01999
• Futurist Tools – Creating Preferred Futures - http://www.cpfonline.org/cpf/f_tools.html
• LGA Futures Toolkit for Local Government, LGA, 02000
• A Futurist’s Toolbox, Cabinet Office, PIU, Strategic Futures Team, 02001
• A practical guide to regional foresight, FOREN, 02001
•‘Your Future in Business – the Foresight Training Toolkit’, 02001
Jamie Saunders – http://www.futuresedge.info
Some Resources:
• Futurist Tools – Creating Preferred Futures –
• http://www.cpfonline.org/cpf/f_tools.html
• Local Government Association Futures Toolkit for Local Government, LGA, 02000
• http://www.lga.gov.uk/Briefing.asp?lsection=0&ccat=-1&id=SXCFC3-A7805B01
• A Futurist’s Toolbox, Cabinet Office, PIU, Strategic Futures Team, 02001
• http://www.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/innovation/2001/futures/A%20Futurists%20Toolbox%20Methodologies%20in%20Futures%20Work.pdf
• Strategic Futures http://www.cabinet-office.gov.uk/innovation/2001/futures/main.shtml
• The Future and how to think about it - http://www.cabinet-office.gov.uk/innovation/2000/strategic/future.shtml
• A practical guide to regional foresight, FOREN, 02001
• http://foren.jrc.es/
• UK Government Foresight Programme
• http://www.foresight.gov.uk
•‘Your Future in Business – the Foresight Training Toolkit’, 02001
•DTI sponsored material associated with training course
Jamie Saunders – http://www.futuresedge.info