Transcript Karachi Demographic and Politics, Forum by Haris Gazdar, 06 Nov

Karachi’s Demographics and
Politics
Haris Gazdar
Population trends and projections
- 1951 to 2025
25,000,000
9
8
2025: 19.5 m
20,000,000
Total
Population
7
15,000,000
2011: 14.25 m
5
4
10,000,000
1998: 9.86 m
3
1961: 2.04 m
5,000,000
percentage
6
Khi to Pakistan
ratio
Predicted
Population
2
1981: 5.44 m
1972: 3.61 m
1
0
2023
2020
2017
2014
2011
2008
2005
2002
1999
1996
1993
1990
1987
1984
1981
1978
1975
1972
1969
1966
1963
1960
1957
1954
1951
0
Source: Author’s projections using population census data
Karachi’s population growth rate:
historical and projected
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
Series1
Linear (Series1)
0.02
y = -0.0007x + 1.3667
0.01
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Migrants
Population Census 1981, 1998
1981
Migrant as % of
population
From other
country
From KP/FATA
From Punjab
1998
46.1
23.8
22.2
7.5
11.3
5.5
5.0
6.7
Urban and Rural Fertility Rates
Source: Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey, 2006-2007 and 2012-2013
2006-2007
2013
Major
city
Other
urban
All
urban
Rural
All
3.0
3.8
3.3
4.5
4.1
3.2
4.2
3.8
Ethnic demography
Distribution of population by reported mother tongue –
Karachi and former districts in 1998
Karachi
Central
West
East
South
Malir
Urdu
49
74
40
61
26
16
Punjabi/
Seraiki
16
11
15
17
21
20
Pushto
11
5
25
6
8
21
Sindhi
7
2
6
4
11
25
Balochi
4
1
5
2
10
9
12
9
10
11
25
10
Other
Source: Population Census 1998
Trends and projections of the city’s
ethnic demography – 1981 to 2025
100%
11
12
90%
9
80%
70%
60%
11
5
4
6
13
14
14
16
4
7
4
8
15
9
16
17
50%
18
40%
30%
54
49
44
20%
40
10%
0%
1981
Urdu
1998
Punjabi/Siraiki
2011
Sindhi
Balochi
2025
Pushto
Others
Source: Author’s projections using population census data
Assumptions behind ethnic projections
Urdu
Sindhi
Punjabi/Siraiki
Balochi
Pushto
Others
Total
1981 - 1998
1998 - 2011 2011 - 2025
2.87%
2.20%
1.70%
4.40%
3.90%
3.20%
3.96%
3.50%
2.60%
3.00%
2.50%
1.90%
5.23%
4.40%
3.30%
4.40%
3.40%
2.70%
3.56%
2.95%
2.33%
Localities, class and development
interventions
Literacy rate across Karachi and in former districts
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Malir
West
Literacy Rate
South
East
Central
Karachi Average
Source: Population census 1998
Availability of potable water, across
Karachi and its former districts
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Malir
West
South
Potable Water
East
Central
Karachi Average
Source: Population census 1998
Literacy Rate
gulberg
shahfaisal
n nazimabad
jamshed
malir
liaquatabad
sadar
gulshan iqbal
new karachi
orangi
korangi
landhi
lyari
baldia
gadap
site
kemari
bin qasim
Literacy rate across Karachi and its towns
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Karachi Average
Source: Population census 1998
Availability of potable water across Karachi
and its towns
Potable Water
new karachi
liaquatabad
site
n nazimabad
shahfaisal
gulberg
gulshan iqbal
lyari
jamshed
sadar
landhi
malir
korangi
orangi
gadap
baldia
bin qasim
kemari
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Karachi Average
Source: Population census 1998
Literacy rates across Karachi and its UCs,
highlighting District Central
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Central
Rest
Karachi Average
Source: Population census 1998
Potable water across Karachi and its UCs,
highlighting District Central
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Central
Rest
Karachi Average
Source: Population census 1998
Percentage of circles according to literacy
levels in North Nazimabad Town
100%
90%
80%
circles (%)
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1209
1203
1208
1206
1205
1201
1202
1210
1204
1207
UC
High
Medium
Low
Source: Population census 1998
Other critical division, less noticed
Auhtors’ classification of Population Census 1998 units based on various
sources
Population Literacy
share
ratio
Planned
44.1
78.5
Mixed
19.1
66.5
Unplanned
35.9
52.2
All
100.0
65.8
Homes with Homes
water
with
connection electricity
85.0
97.6
75.7
93.5
61.8
89.4
74.4
93.8
Geography of planning
Population Census 1998, authors’ calculation/classification
All
Karachi
Planned
44.1
Unplanned 35.9
Mixed
19.1
Central
72.6
18.4
8.8
East
60.6
19.2
19.6
South
29.2
38.5
31.8
West
19.8
57.3
20.0
Malir
10.2
72.7
17.1
Literacy rates across Karachi and its charge
circles, highlighting planned settlements
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Planned Settlement
Rest
Karachi Average
Source: Population census 1998
Potable water across Karachi and its charge
circles, highlighting planned settlements
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Planned Settlement
Rest
Karachi Average
Source: Population census 1998
City politics
Party vote share in Karachi
MQM
PPP
PML
ANP
MMA/JUI
PTI
1988
63
20
6
2
0
-
1990
71
16
7
2
0
-
1993
65
19
4
1
0
-
1997
56
10
22
1
0
-
2002
42
13
4
1
26
-
2008
68
22
4
2
1
-
2013
53
8
2
1
5
18
Source: Author’s calculations based on Dawn Election Data, compiled from Election Commission of Pakistan sources
MQM vote share in District Central
and elsewhere in Karachi
1988 to 2013
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Central
All
others
1988
Central
All
others
1990
Central
All
others
1993
Central
All
others
1997
Central
All
others
2002
Central
All
others
2008
Central
All
others
2013
Source: Author’s calculations based on Dawn Election Data, compiled from Election Commission of Pakistan sources
Distribution of polling stations – by
vote share of winner and turnout rate
Election Commission of Pakistan, authors’ calculation
Proportion of all
Vote share (per polling stations
cent)
(per cent)
50 or less
8.1
50 to 60
7.5
60 to 70
8.3
70 to 80
10.0
80 to 90
16.3
90 to 95
15.9
95 to 99
27.5
Above 99
6.5
Average
turnout rate
(per cent)
30.7
31.0
31.8
35.2
40.4
51.5
65.4
70.6
Political territory: polling stations 2008
Election Commission of Pakistan, authors’ calculations
All
Central
East
South
West
Malir
All
Karachi
Planned and
mixed
MQM PPP
98.6 1.4
90.9 6.4
51.7 46.6
66.2 26.4
39.0 61.0
MQM
95.3
85.5
38.2
48.4
18.3
PPP
4.7
12.3
54.4
39.1
78.3
64.1
31.1 82.3
15.5
Unplanned
MQM PPP
78.3
21.7
59.9
39.5
14.2
68.6
35.7
47.5
13.9
81.9
34.3
56.4
Dominated vs competitive polling stations by
planning status – winning party secures 90%
plus vote share
Election Commission of Pakistan, authors’ calculation
Competitive
Planned and
mixed
Unplanned
All
43.6
60.8
49.9
Dominated
56.4
39.2
50.1
No of PS
2,144
1,241
3,385