Transcript We aint seen nothing yet”

Welcome to the presentation of
YOU AIN’T SEEN NOTHING YET
by
Daniel Petre AO
Disruption
Everything is changing.
Change is accelerating.
“We ain’t seen nothing yet”
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Mobile Expansion
Increased line speed
Social Network Power
Internet of Things
Machine Learning
Advanced Robotics
3D Manufacturing
Big Data
Network Effect
Global Platforms
How things have Already
Changed
Re-Imagination of Computing Devices
THEN
(Desktops / Notebooks)
NOW
(Tablets / Smartphones)
6
Source: KPCB Internet Trends Mary Meeker 12/3/2012
Re-Imagination of Connectivity
THEN
Source: KPCB Internet Trends Mary Meeker 12/3/2012
NOW
7
Re-Imagination of News + Information Flow
THEN
NOW
(Twitter)
Delayed / Dedicated Reporters +
Cameramen / Regional or National Reach
Source: KPCB Internet Trends Mary Meeker 12/3/2012
Real-Time / Citizen Reporting via
Mobile Devices / Global Reach
8
Re-Imagination of Magazines
THEN
NOW
(Flipboard)
Piles of Print Copies
Source: KPCB Internet Trends Mary Meeker 12/3/2012
More Content / Always Up-To-Date /
Personalized / Access Everywhere /
Interactive (Video + Audio) / Share
9
Re-Imagination of Books
THEN
Source: KPCB Internet Trends Mary Meeker 12/3/2012
NOW
(Amazon Kindle / Apple iBooks)
10
Re-Imagination of Music
THEN
NOW
(Spotify)
Buy Albums + CDs in Stores /
Playback via Dedicated Players
Source: KPCB Internet Trends Mary Meeker 12/3/2012
Discovery of Music Through Friends + Experts /
Instant On-Demand Streaming on InternetEnabled Devices
11
Re-Imagination of Video
THEN
NOW
(YouTube / Netflix)
Physical Retail / Rental Stores
Source: KPCB Internet Trends Mary Meeker 12/3/2012
On-Demand / Instant Streaming /
Accessible Everywhere
12
Re-Imagination of Yellow Pages
THEN
NOW
(Yelp)
Big Heavy Printed Business Listings / No
Reviews / No Easy Search Feature
Source: KPCB Internet Trends Mary Meeker 12/3/2012
User Reviews / Pictures / Recommendations /
Location-Aware / Easily Searchable
13
Re-Imagination of TV
THEN
Linear Programming / Pre-Set Channels
/ Little Control Over Content
Source: KPCB Internet Trends Mary Meeker 12/3/2012
NOW
(YouTube Channels / Bleacher Team
Stream)
On Demand Personalized Content on Big Screen
14
Re-Imagination of Navigation + Live
Traffic Info
THEN
NOW
(Waze)
Physical Copies of Map in Car / TV,
Radio Reporting of Traffic Info
Source: KPCB Internet Trends Mary Meeker 12/3/2012
User-Generated Digital Map / Live
Crowd-Sourced Traffic Data
15
Re-Imagination of Calling a Cab
THEN
Long Lines During Rush Hours /
Rain / Some Areas May Not Have
Taxis Roaming on Streets
Source: KPCB Internet Trends Mary Meeker 12/3/2012
NOW
(Uber)
One-Tap Taxi Call / LocationAware / Electronic Payment
16
Re-Imagination of Coupons + Local Services
THEN
NOW
(Groupon )
Non-Personalized / Smaller Discounts /
Easily Lost or Forgotten
Source: KPCB Internet Trends Mary Meeker 12/3/2012
Personalized / Location-Aware /
Instant Deals / Group-buying Discount
60
Re-Imagination of Cash Registers
THEN
NOW
(Square)
Big + Odd Looking
Machines / Receipt Printers
Cash Drawers
Source: KPCB Internet Trends Mary Meeker 12/3/2012
Simple + Elegant Tablet + Square Reader /
Email Receipts / Touch Signing
18
Re-Imagination of Marketplaces
THEN
NOW
(Etsy)
Tent + Pickup Truck @ Street Fairs
Source: KPCB Internet Trends Mary Meeker 12/3/2012
Integrated Platform For Listings / Advertising /
Payment / Inventory Management
19
Re-Imagination of Idea Building / Funding
THEN
NOW
(KickStarter)
Flyers / Loudspeakers / Dinners / Checks
Source: KPCB Internet Trends Mary Meeker 12/3/2012
Online / Social Distribution / RealTime Progress
20
Re-Imagination of Personal Borrowing /
Lending
THEN
NOW
(Lending Club)
Borrowers – Paper Application / Lengthy
Approval Process / High Interest Rates
Investors – Little Access For Retail Investors /
No Customization Based on Risk Tolerance
Source: KPCB Internet Trends Mary Meeker 12/3/2012
Borrowers – Online Application / Funded in Days /
Lower Interest Rates
Investors – Easy Customization / Diversification /
Better Returns
21
Re-Imagination of Healthcare Access
THEN
NOW
(ZocDoc / Teladoc)
Call to Make Appointments / Days or
Weeks to See Doctors
Source: KPCB Internet Trends Mary Meeker 12/3/2012
On-Demand Access to Doctors in Minutes or
Same Day / In Person or Via Phone Video Call
22
Re-Imagination of Government Subsidies
THEN
Gather in Town / Wait in Line
to Receive Subsidies
Source: KPCB Internet Trends Mary Meeker 12/3/2012
NOW
200MM+ Farmers in India Receive
Government Subsidies Via Mobile Devices*
79
Re-Imagination of Learning
THEN
NOW
From learning by listening to learning by doing Education and
learning will become as much fun as videogames. And we call it
‘full body learning’.
Bing Gordon Partner, KPCB
Source: KPCB Internet Trends Mary Meeker 12/3/2012
24
Summary Snapshot –
Current Drivers of Change
• Continued Device innovation
– Wearable computers, Internet of things
• Shift to mobile as the dominant device for all
consumer services (Tablet and Phone)
• Nearly ubiquitous high-speed wireless access
• Impact of massive data and better algorithms
• Machine Learning and Robotics
Source: KPCB Internet Trends Mary Meeker 12/3/2012
Internet of Things
Internet of Things – Home/ Consumer
Internet of Things – Smart Paver
Pavegen
Internet of Things – Smart Inhaler
Internet of Things – Smart Dispenser
Adheretech
Internet of Things – Smart city
Internet of Things – Smart Agriculture
Silent Herdsman
Summary Snapshot –
Current Drivers of Change
• Consumers want all content/information everywhere
and at any time
• Social Graph becomes the platform for
curation/recommendation/sourcing
• Social emerging as starting distribution point for
content
• Global Service/Content Providers able to reach
millions of new users in record (& accelerating) time
• Truly Global markets
Source: KPCB Internet Trends Mary Meeker 12/3/2012
State of Play
Nearly 3 billion people online
3,000"
2,500"
2,000"
1,500"
1,000"
500"
0"
1990"1991"1992"1993"1994" 1995"1996"1997"1998"1999"2000"2001"2002"2003"2004" 2005"2006"2007"2008"2009"2010"2011"2012"2013E"
Source:(Interna- onal(Communica- on(Union,(Google(
About half left to go!
Global Internet Popula on
8,000
7,000
6,000
(millions)
5,000
4,000
3,000
Global Popula on
2,000
1,000
Internet Popula on
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E
Source: Interna onal Communica on Union, Google
(But most of the money is already online)
Distribu on Of Global Income, 2007
Bo om 80 Percent
17%
Top 20 Percent
83%
Source: Unicef, 2011
Wearables are beginning to take off…
Wearable Device Market Size Forecast
$14,000
$12,000
(Millions)
$10,000
$8,000
$6,000
$4,000
$2,000
$2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: BI Intelligence es mates, ABI Research, IMS, Juniper, *Assumes 42$ average selling price for wearable devices
2016
2017
2018
Eyeballs are moving to digital, especially mobile
U.S.$Consumer$Media$Consump2on$Share$
50%$
45%$
45%$
44%$
43%$
42%$
40%$
38%$
35%$
30%$
26%$26%$26%$
25%$
25%$
20%$
20%$
20%$
17%$
16%$
15%$
14%$
15%$
12%$
10%$
12%$
9%$
8%$
7%$
7%$
6%$
4%$
5%$
8%$
9%$
7%$
5%$ 5%$
6%$
4%$
0%$
TV$
Online$
Radio$
2009$
Source:(eMarketer,(August(2013(
2010$
Print$
2011$
2012$
Other$
2013$
Mobile$
Newspaper ad revenue has collapsed
“Over-the-top” video is real and growing fast.
Digital Video Revenue, 2006-2011
$5,000
Hulu
$4,000
YouTube
Total
Digital
Revenues
(millions)
$3,000
$2,000
$1,000
Ne lix
$0
2006
2007
2008
Source: Company filings and BI Intelligence es mates
2009
2010
2011
TV may be next
Value (and power) are still very concentrated
"Old Media"
21st Century Fox
16%
News Corp
2%
Disney
24%
CBS
7%
Viacom
8%
Comcast
24%
Time Warner
Cable
7%
Time Warner
12%
$405 Billion Market Value
$1081 Market Value
**Market cap the week of October 14
“New media” dwarfs “old media” in market value
New Media vs. Old Media
$1,200
$1,081 Market Value
$1,000
Other
Yahoo
Market Value (Billions)
Facebook
$800
Amazon
$600
Google
$480 Market Value
21st Century Fox
$400
$200
CBS
Viacom
Time Warner Cable
Time Warner
Apple
Comcast
Disney
$0
New Media
*Other includes Twi er, Ne lix, and Hulu
**Market cap the week of October 14
Old Media
News Corp
11 billion WhatsApp messages sent each day
WhatsApp Growth
25
300
300
20
Ac ver Users
20
17
200
200
15
12
11
150
10
10
8
100
5
50
0
0
Apr-13
Jun-13
Messages Sent
Source: WhatsApp, News Reports
Messages Received
Aug-13
Ac ver Users
Number Of Ac ve Users (Millions)
Number Of Daily Messages (Billions)
250
758 million pictures shared each day
Top Photo Sharing Sites, August 2013
Share Of Average Daily Photo Uploads Among Top 4 Sites (758 Million Daily Uploads Total)
Instagram
7%
Flickr
1%
Facebook
46%
Snapchat
46%
Source: BI Intelligence
350 million Snapchat pictures sent a day
Snapchat's Daily Photo Shares Are Soaring
400
350
Daily Photo Shares In Millions
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Source: Snapchat, TechCrunch September 2013, CNET June 2013, KPCG May 2013
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
SOCIAL
1/7th of the world’s population use Facebook
Facebook Ac ve Users
1,000
900
800
700
600
Ac ve
Users 500
(millions)
Monthly Ac ve Users
400
300
200
Daily Ac ve Users
100
0
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
MOBILE
PCs are now small share of connected devices…
Global Internet Connected Device Shipments
1,800,000,000
1,600,000,000
1,400,000,000
Wearables
1,200,000,000
Smart TVs
Tablets
Units
1,000,000,000
800,000,000
600,000,000
Smartphones
400,000,000
200,000,000
Personal Computers
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Source: Gartner, IDC, Strategy Analy cs, Company Filings, BI Intelligence Es mates
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013E
And will soon dwarf them
Global Internet Device Sales
3,000,000,000
2,500,000,000
Tablets
2,000,000,000
Units 1,500,000,000
We are here
1,000,000,000
Smartphones
500,000,000
Personal Computers
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Source: Gartner, IDC, Strategy Analy cs, company filings, BI Intelligence es mates
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E
E-COMMERCE
E-Commerce continues to take share…
$5,000,000
U.S. Retail Sales
E-Commerce
$4,500,000
$4,000,000
(millions)
$3,500,000
$3,000,000
$2,500,000
$2,000,000
Offline Retail Sales
$1,500,000
$1,000,000
$500,000
$0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data--St. Louis Fed, BI Intelligence es mates
Australian Retail Performance
Australian Retail Sales 1983 - 2013
Ecommerce –
Where is Australia ?
• Slow to react
– Challenges the status quo
– Disruption(Myers, DJs, Retail, Real Estate play)
• International presence
– Price, range, CRM, logistics
– Ebay, Amazon, ASOS, long tail
• Opportunities
– Nordstrom example
– Logistics, Infrastructure
Source: KPCB Internet Trends Mary Meeker 12/3/2012
Education
Education
• Two threats
• The US has woken up
• Aggressive pursuit of Chinese Students
• Local campus affiliations
• Our share will naturally decline to more
normalised levels
• MOOCS & Adaptive Learning Platforms
• See the best lecturer
• Personalised Learning Tools
• Accreditation control (Universities) is under
threat
McKinsey & Co
The Economist
What are the coming disruptive
Technologies
•
•
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•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Mobile Internet
Automation of knowledge work
The Internet of Things
Cloud technology
Advanced robotics
Autonomous and near-autonomous vehicles
Next-generation genomics
Energy storage
3D printing
Advanced materials
Advanced oil and gas exploration and recovery
Renewable energy
McKinsey & Co
So what?
It is all about
Jobs
&
Investment
Destruction/Disruption
De-coupling of productivity from labour
Technology advancements have continued to drive productivity improvement but
employment has not kept pace
In the US, productivity and employment growth started to
become decoupled at the end of ‘90s.
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Technology threatens almost all the jobs market
In the US 20% of the total knowledge jobs are at risk within the next decade
It is estimated that 47% of total US employment is at risk of which circa 20% is represented by knowledge
workers. This includes types of occupations that are potentially automatable within a decade or two
Risk Probabilities
Total jobs
at risk
Legend
Knowledge
jobs at risk
The distribution of BLS 2010 occupational employment over the probability of
computerisation, along with the share in low, medium and high probability
categories.
Note: the total area under all curves is equal to total US employment.
Source: The future of employment: how susceptible are jobs to computerisation?, Carl Benedikt Frey, Michael A. Osborne, University of Oxford, September 2013, PwC
analysis
70
Skills and Jobs
VC
R&D
EDU
Declining skills base
Australian STEM-related course completions have decreased over the past 10 years from
22% to 16%, lagging many global peers
Global
Peers
Australian STEM Graduates
24%
Sweden
22%
21%
21%
21%
301.6
299.5
286.6
19%
272.2
250
258.8
18%
247.5
18%
225.4
(2011)
300
20%
232.2
239.5
17%
17%
215.1
16%
(2011)
16%
16%
16%
200
200.7
150
14%
No. of Graduates ‘0000
STEM graduates (% of Total)
22%
Switzerland
350
UK
(2013)
Netherlands
(2011)
US
(2011)
Finland
(2011)
Korea
(2011)
12%
100
China
(2013)
STEM
Tot. Graduates
New Zealand
(2011)
% STEM
# STEM
Multiplier
of AU STEM
19.8%
11,167
-
25.4%
16,157
-
22.4%
90,000
2X
14.0%
18,962
-
15.5%
396,782
8X
31.8%
14,274
-
30.9%
134,211
3X
41.0%
2,865,000
59 X
19.0%
9,369
-
Source: Department of Education, Award Course Completions 2002 – 2012 (Natural and Physical Sciences, Information Technology, Engineering and Related Technologies)
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Investment
VC
R&D
EDU
Venture Capital Spend
Australia has significantly less VC activity compared to other countries with a range of
challenges across the eco system
Assessment of VC eco-system
AUS vs US VC Spend 2002-20121
60
$280b
50
Text
Friends and
Family
Mentors
Government
Funding
Professional
Advisors
Incubators /
Accelerators
Early stage
company
infrastructure
Universities
Research &
Development
Management
team and
employees
Customers
Sales & Marking
Partners
40
30
$20b
20
10
$6.5b
0
Actual AUS
Spend
Equivalent US
US VC spend
per capita spend
Source: OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard (2013), ABS, PwC Analysis
12
Venture Capital Activity
However, Canada is actively funding innovation compared to Australia – despite the
downturn during the GFC
Canadian VC invested $1.8b CAD
in 2012
Dwarfing Australia on a per
capita basis (2012)
$60.00
$51.6
$50.00
$40.00
$30.00
$20.00
$14.25
$10.00
$AUD
Source: CVCA 2012, PwC Analysis
CAN
30
VC
R&D
EDU
Research vs Commercialisation
Australia’s researcher capacity is heavily skewed towards higher education and is not
translating adequately into commercial outcomes compared to global peers
One of the highest proportion of researchers in
higher education but lowest in enterprises...
... which is translating into innovative
ideas …
Metrics per
$100mUSD
Research
AUS
CA
UK
US
Inventions
28.3
34.7
43.7
35
... but lags global peers on a number of
commercialisation metrics
US Patents
2.0
2.9
7.8
7.6
Start-up
Companies
0.3
1.0
2.8
1.1
Source: Australia’s position in the world of Science, Technology & Innovation, Alan Pettigrew (Chief Scientist), May 2012
National Survey of Research Commercialisation 2010 and 2011, DIISRTE, Dec 2012
16
How to make sense of the knowledge created
Much of the developed world has already begun the transition to a knowledge-based
economy however, Australia is lagging
Investments in intangible assets varies across the OECD countries. Australia is still
one of the heavy investors in physical assets
US the leader
Business Investment in Knowledge-based capital (2010)
Knowledge-based capital includes: 1) digital information (software and data); 2) innovative property (patents, copyrights, trademarks and
designs); and 3) organisation-specific competencies (brand equity, training and organisational capital).
These are a key factor to create the types of innovation that spur new sources of growth.
Source: OECD
19
Summary
• The world is one global market
• Scale matters
• Change driven by Technology is accelerating
• Technology is the underlying catalyst
• Business is becoming more complex
• Requiring higher levels of IQ
• Requiring an understanding of Tech platforms
75
Summary
• We are generally not a scale or global player
• Multi-nationals not paying their way
• We are not priming the engine of the future
• We do not have a viable VC industry
• We do not fund enough Research
• We need more STEM students
• We need our companies to do REAL R&D
• The future can’t be just about Mining and Agriculture
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Appendix
Ten markers
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% of Australian Households on the Net
Hours of Internet use per day
Balance of Trade on Australia’s Information Account
Number of Australian Online sistes with > 500K users
Number of students graduating from Online
Media/Computing Programmes
Number of Boards with Online specialists
Electronic Commerce in Australia’s largest Companies
Government commitment to online services
Use of computers in Australian Schools
Questions
On behalf of
The Hon. Mal Brough MP
and
The Sunshine Coast Business Community
THANK YOU DANIEL