Transcript Document

CROSSING THE VALLEY OF DEATH:
The NOAA Transition of Research Applications
to Climate Services (TRACS) Program
CLIMATE PREDICTION APPLICATION SCIENCES
WORKSHOP (CPASW)
University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill
JOSH FOSTER
TRACS Program
Coordinator
Climate Program Office (CPO)
March 7, 2008
[email protected]
<www.climate.noaa.gov/cpo_pa/nctp/>
ABANDON
HOPE
ALL YE
WHO
ENTER
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INTRODUCTION: Bridging Research
to Operations/Applications
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Old problem, so why TRACS now? What has changed?
NEW CONTEXT:
 2000: NRC “Crossing Valley of Death” Report
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2003-05: NEW NOAA Climate Transition Program
(NCTP) FORMULATED
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2005: FIRST NCTP funding year
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2005: NEW NOAA “Transition Policy” (TRA)
http://www.corporateservices.noaa.gov/~ames/NAOs/Chap_216/naos_216_105.html
NEW NCTP MANAGER 2006: JOSH FOSTER
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2006: NEW NAME: NOAA Transition of Research
Applications to Climate Services (TRACS) Program
<www.climate.noaa.gov/cpo_pa/nctp/>
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Current TRACS Projects - intertwines with CPASW
Emerging Issues and Questions
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OLD CONTEXT: The Policy Statement ~1973
(Source: Gordon Little; Director, Wave Propagation Lab 1967+
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precursor of NOAA Environmental Technology Lab (ETL), now ESRL)
OLD CONTEXT: And its Products
(Source: Gordon Little)
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NEW CONTEXT: National Research Council
(NRC) Report 2000
CROSSING THE
VALLEY OF DEATH
From Research to Operations in
Weather Satellites and
Numerical Weather Prediction
National Research Council (NRC)
Board on Atmospheric Sciences
and Climate (BASC)
2000
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New Context:
NRC Report 2000
NRC RECOMMENDATION*:
“NOAA should institutionalize the
transition process, assigning clear
responsibility for continuous evaluation
of its effectiveness and for the
identification of bottlenecks and
opportunities.”
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*See also: “Satellite Observations of the Earth's Environment:
Accelerating the Transition of Research to Operations (NRC, 2003)”
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New Context:
NRC Report 2000

NRC RECOMMENDATION*:
“Feasibility must be demonstrated for the
entire operational process, and production of
additional climate and weather information
must be accompanied by considerations of
its dissemination, use, and impact.
Impact may be related to demand, which
depends on visibility of the information and
recognition of its value.”
*See also: “A Climate Services Vision:
First Steps Towards the Future” (NRC, 2001)
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New Context:
NOAA Climate Transition Program
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2003: NOAA Climate Transition Program (NCTP)
proposed to NWS and OAR
STARTED JOINTLY by:
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NWS Climate Services Division (CSD):
 Fiona Horsfall: Deputy Director
OAR Climate Program Office:
 Harvey Hill: RISA Program Manager
With input from many from CPASW community
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New Context:
NOAA Climate Transition Program (NCTP) 2003
Climate Services Development
RATIONALE & PURPOSE:
 Pent up demand for hand-off of prototype climate
information tools from research community to
“operations/applications” communities
 Reap returns from research investments in new
capabilities for delivery of climate information via
discrete transition projects with user partners
 Enhance the capacity to deliver climate data,
predictions, assessments, and information tools
regionally by linking existing organizational
capabilities through regular interactions (e.g. CPASW,
Westcore)
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New Context: NOAA
TRANSITION POLICY 2005

TRANSITION RESEARCH TO
APPLICATIONS (TRA)
NOAA ADMINISTRATIVE ORDER
(NAO 216-105) (May 2005)
<http://www.corporateservices.noaa.gov/~ames/NAOs/Chap_216/naos_216_105.html>

“NOAA will maximize the timely
application of NOAA sponsored research
and capitalize on non-NOAA research in
order to meet mission needs.”
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New Context: NOAA
TRANSITION POLICY 2005
RESEARCH TO APPLICATIONS = Operations +
Information Services
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Research: Systematic study directed toward fuller
scientific knowledge or understanding of the subject
studied.
Operations: Sustained, systematic, reliable, and robust
mission activities with an institutional commitment to
deliver appropriate, cost-effective products and services.
Information Services: Production and delivery of
interpreted and/or synthesized data, decision tools, and
scientific knowledge and understanding to decision- and
policy-makers, the scientific community, and the public.
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Transition of Research Applications
to Climate Services (TRACS)
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TRACS PROGRAM MISSION - 2 Main Goals:
is to (1) transition experimentally mature
climate tools, methods, and processes,
from research mode into settings where they may
be applied in an operational and sustained
manner,
generating continuous and ROUTINE delivery
of useful climate information products and
services to local, regional, national, and
international decision and policy makers.
TRACS seeks not only to support
implementation of these transitions,
but also to (2) learn from partners how
better to accomplish technology transition
processes for public goods applications and
improved risk management.
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“UNIT” PARTNERS: Research,
Operations, Extension, Decision-makers
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TRACS Unit Model
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TRACS is designed to
accommodate four
types of grant-based
Transition Partnership
Project relationships:
Within NOAA units
From partners to NOAA
From NOAA to partners
Among NOAA partners
(using NOAA funds)
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TRACS PROGRAM: Why?
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Based on earlier NOAA investments in research,
observations, modeling, and applications
Supports NOAA Transition Policy in Climate Program
Collaboration among NOAA Line Offices & Programs
An experimental “proof of concept” model for
competitive, proposal-driven, transition to
applications of research to expand regional and local
climate services - LED BY RESEARCHERS, but a
climate community endeavor to build credibility
Seed funding for transition projects
Partnership driven: university, federal, regional,
state, local, private sector - bridging “the last 99
yards” to the user (ie NOT NWS OSIP Process!)
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TRACS: Transition Projects
How? Evaluation Criteria
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climate time scale tools - climate & weather
decisions
defined partnership Unit: researcher, operations,
extension, decision maker components (all members
participate in proposal process)
agreement(s)/endorsements among partners
project management plan - partners, timeline,
defined outcomes
limited duration not to exceed 5 years
benefits analysis of rigorous valuation of socioeconomic, ecosystem, other measurable performance
Post-audit evaluation - sustainable transition?
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TRACS FY2005-08/09:
Funded Transition Projects
ART DEGAETANO (CORNELL/NERCC):
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Transitioning an Assessment of Impact-Producing East Coast Winter
Storms to Decision-Support Tools for Emergency Management and Coast
Restoration
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Partners: Cornell University to Northeast Regional Climate Center (NERCC)
End-User: Sea Grant managers, coastal and emergency managers (Long Island, NY)
ANDREW COMRIE-MARY GLUECK (UAZ)/KELLY REDMOND (WRCC/DRI) WESTMAP: A Distributed Interactive Access and Resource Interface for
Fine Scale Climate Data
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Partners: University of Arizona to Western Region Climate Center (WRCC)
End-User: land and resource managers and planners
STEVE HU (UNL/HPRCC) - THINK ABOUT IT:
 Transition of Weather and Climate Forecasts Into Effective DecisionMaking Tool
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Partners: University of Nebraska-Lincoln to High Plains Regional Climate Center (HPRCC)
End-User: agricultural extension agents, farmers
IGNATIUS RIGOR (UW)
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Forecasting the Condition of Sea Ice on Weekly to Seasonal Time Scales
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Partners: University of Washington to Naval Ice Center (NIC)
End-User: Navy ice forecasters, resource managers, navigators, hunters
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TRACS FY2007-09/10: Funded Transition
Projects under “Coping with Drought” Initiative
KEITH INGRAM (UFLORIDA)/((DAVE ZIERDEN (FSU)) - AGCLIMATE:
AGRICULTURE: Transition From Research To Operations for AgClimate - An InternetBased Decision Support System For Minimizing Agricultural Risks Associated With
Climate Variability
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PARTNERS: University Of Florida to Florida (UFL) Cooperative Extension Services, Particularly The
Florida Agricultural Weather Network (FAWN)
ANDREW ELLIS(ASU)/GREGG GARFIN (UAZ)
MONITORING: AZ Instituting Multi-Scale Hydroclimatic Indices in Drought Monitoring
and Mitigation
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PARTNERS: University Of Arizona (UAZ), Arizona State University (ASU), AZ State Climatologist to AZ Dept
Of Water Resources, Salt River Project (Arizona Drought Monitoring Committee (ADMC)
TIM BROWN (WRCC/DRI)
FIRE: Implementation of a Climate-Vegetation Based Early Warning and Prediction
System for Interagency Fuels Management
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PARTNERS: Desert Research Institute/Climate, Ecosystem and Fire Applications (DRI/CEFA), Oregon State
University (OSU), NOAA/ESRL Climate Diagnostics Branch (CDB) to DRI/CEFA (CEFA Operations and
Forecast Facility (COFF)—already funded by land management agencies
MIKE HAYES (NDMC) - DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER (DIR)
SOCIETAL IMPACTS: Transitioning the Drought Impact Reporter into an Operational
System
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PARTNERS: NDMC, University of Nebraska-Lincoln (UNL), University of Arizona (UAZ) to NDMC
KEN HUBBARD (HPRCC)
MONITORING: Adding Daily Solar Radiation and Dew Point Temperature to Historical
Weather Records of the U.S. Cooperative Observer Network in the High Plains
Region
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PARTNERS: UNL, High Plains Regional Climate Center (HPRCC) to HPRCC
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TRACS FY2007-09/10: Funded Transition
Projects under “Coping with Drought” Initiative*
JEFF WHITAKER (NOAA CDB/ESRL) TO NCEP
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FORECASTING: Transition of Downscaled Probabilistic
Precipitation Forecasts into NOAA Centers for Environmental
Prediction (NCEP) Operations
 PARTNERS: ESRL CDB to NCEP NCO and HPC
ANDREW WOOD (UWASHINGTON) TO NCEP
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MONITORING & PREDICTION: Real-Time Soil Moisture, Snow
And Runoff Products For Drought Assessment And Prediction In
The Continental U.S.
 PARTNERS: University of Washington to CPC, (NCDC), NDMC,
National Resources Conservation Service (NRCS)
KOSTA GEORGAKAKOS (HRC-SAN DIEGO) - INFORM
 FORECASTING: Operational Multiscale Forecast and Reservoir
Management in Northern California
 PARTNERS: The Hydrologic Research Center (HRC) and the Georgia
Water Resources Institute (GWRI) to the California Nevada River
Forecast Center (CNRFC) and the California Department of
Water Resources (DWR)
*Funding from NWS Office of Hydrological Development (OHD)
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EXAMPLES OF
TRACS PROJECTS:
DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS
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Climate Resilient Communities (CRC) Project:
“Preparing for Climate Change: A Guidebook for
Local, Regional, and State Governments”
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Climate Impacts Group
(CIG-RISA) (UW); King
County, WA; ICLEI:
designed to help local,
regional, and state
governments prepare
for climate change by
recommending a
detailed, easy-tounderstand process for
climate change
preparedness based on
familiar resources and
tools
Note: Holly Hartmann’s talk
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Forecasting the Condition of
Arctic Sea Ice
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l
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a
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l
a
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a
OW FY 1 2 3 4
5
6
8
10+
OW
FY
mix
MY
Collaborators: Polar Science Center (Research), and
the National Ice Center (Operations).
Goal: Use buoy observations, and apply recent
insights in Arctic Climate Variability to improve
operational/seasonal sea ice forecasts.
Example:
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A new record minimum in Arctic sea ice extent
was set this past summer. The map on the top
left shows the distribution of buoys (red dots),
and sea ice concentration over the Arctic Ocean
on 26 Sep. 2007.
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Using these observations we can estimate the
age (thickness) of sea ice on the Arctic Ocean
using a Drift Age Model (lower left). The age
map shows the estimates for March 2007, and
given the large expanse of younger (thinner) sea
ice northeast of Alaska (yellow oval, lower left)
we could expect large areas of open water the
following summer (yellow oval, top).
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The Drift Age Model may also be compared to
other NIC ice products to validate and improve
both products. E.g. in the lower right we
compare results from the age model with the
ares of multi-year (MY) sea ice analyzed from the
QuikScat satellite.
Source: Ignatius Rigor
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Source: Art Degaetano
<http://atmos.eas.cornell.edu/~wrf/ecws/index>
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ECWS: Tracks and
corresponding
storm surge plots
for significant
historical storms
Coming soon….
Historical
analogues for
impending storms
Seasonal storm frequency outlooks
Storm and Surge Climatologies
Source: Art Degaetano
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Western Climate Mapping Initiative (WESTMAP)
A Stakeholder-driven Interactive Web-based Interface for Data Access & Analysis
Maps & Graphs of Spatial Time
Series over User-specified
Space & Time domains
•PRISM temperature &
Precipitation: Western United
States
•Month(s), season(s), year(s)
•Mean, anomaly, composite, basic
statistics, etc.
•Canned and user specified
subregions, pixel, custom
•QuickMap, Tool Box, Tutorials,
Metadata, Education, User
Feedback
Source: Mary Glueck (Poster)
Initial WestMap Project: Comrie & Glueck, University of Arizona;
Redmond, Reinbold & Abatzoglou, WRCC/DRI; Daly, PRISM (Oregon
State U); funded by NOAA NCTP/TRACS
New tools for
Fine-Scale
CLIMATE data24
“Think About It” – Transitioning Climate Information and Predictions to Decision Aids*
Qi S. Hu1, Lisa M. PytlikZillig2, Gary D. Lynne3, Kenneth G. Hubbard1, and Roger H. Bruning2
1. School of Natural Resources and Department of Geosciences, 2. Center for Instructional Innovation, and Department of Educational Psychology
3. Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE 68583-0987
March 2007 (*: This research has been supported by NOAA OGP/NCTP Program)
The major obstacle in transitioning weather and
Example question (for soil water content observation)
This consultant feedback shows the user how to integrate the information of this
climate predictions and information in agricultural
product with the actual situation and other information, e.g., rainfall and temperature
decision-making is that farmers don’t know how to
predictions, to make a more effective irrigation decision.
interpret forecasts and how to integrate them in specific
On a scale of 0-6, how
decisions. Thus, the key in achieving the transition and
Peer Feedback:
important or relevant is
improving use of forecasts in decisions is to increase the
this
information
to
making
As shown, the peers in this case
knowledge of farmers about the forecasts and build skills
a
good
irrigation
decision
also thought the information was
and confidence of using them in farming decisions. We
in this case?
only moderately important.
use the following irrigation decision scenario as an
example to demonstrate how this transition works.
Your farm is located in the northern part of Franklin
County in south-central Nebraska. Like most of your
neighbors, you are growing corn in silt loam soil that
can hold 2 inches of available water per foot, and you
use a center pivot system that pumps water from a
ground-water system, and has the capacity to put on 1
inch of water in 3 days. The ground water allocation for
farmers in this area this year is 11 inches. You planted
corn on May 1st, today is Monday, June 20th, and your
corn is in the ten-leaf stage. So far this season, you have
not needed to irrigate. Most of your neighbors have not
irrigated yet either—though one or two have. Since midMay, your area has only received about 2.5 inches of
rainfall, and you are trying to decide if you should
irrigate and, if so, how much you should irrigate. (Note:
In this scenario, the price of corn is $2.25 per bushel.
The cost to apply an inch of water is $6.50 per acre.)
Farmers then are given the following weather and
climate predictions and crop water use conditions, and
asked to use any to make their provisional irrigation
decision.
1. Observed percentage of soil water content
2. Soil moisture accumulation
3. Five-day rainfall forecast – Nebraska QPF
4. Rainfall probability forecast
5. 5-day T_min and T_max predictions
6. Wind predictions, and
7. Crop water use summary
In viewing each of these products farmers are asked
a couple of questions that measure how well they
understand the product.
This question is important because accurate predictions
should only be used in relevant situations to make good
decisions.
While users view and answer questions about the
products, they are provided with “Coaching” materials, in
written form or audio or video, that explain how the
particular product should be interpreted. Additional
interpretations of the map are saved in a resources folder
that users can click if want to read more. After reading the
map, the user can compare his interpretation of the map
with the “Consultant and expert feedback” on how this
product tells the soil moisture condition in the concerned
area. In addition, the user can see how his peers answered
the question.
http://driftwood.unl.edu/farmsmart/
Coaching & Expert Feedback:
Coaching:
The color bar below this map shows the percentage values
for the color code in the map. For example, the yellow
color corresponds to the soil water content between 40 and
50% of the maximum available soil water for crop use.
Additional interpretations of the map are saved in a
resources folder that users can click if want to read more.
A computer module of this climate transitioning tool is being developed and
some interfaces are shown below. http://thinkaboutit.unl.edu/beta
Summary
The ThinkAboutIt (TAI) modules for helping producers learn to choose and
apply weather products to specific situations have been developed for understanding
and correctly using the weather and climate products. At the end of the training
associated with each product, the TAI model provides users with the chance to
reconsider their irrigation decision in light of all the available information and make
an effective decision. Expert coaching and feedback is also available during this
synthesis. In this way, the users can gain, not only knowledge of new weather
products, but also skill in applying them to specific situations.
Expert (Consultant) Feedback:
Experts rated this information as a 3 on the zero to sixpoint scale. Thus, the information provided by the product
is moderately useful in this case.
Source:
Steven Hu
(Poster)
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S
E
C
C
R
I
S
A
NEW
TRACS
Project
FY2007
www.AgClimate.org
(Source: Keith Ingram;
Jim Jones)
S
O
U
T
H
E
A
S
T
U
S
DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER
(DIR at NDMC)
(NEW TRACS Project FY2007)
<http://droughtreporter.unl.edu/>
NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER (NDMC)
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Real-time Soil Moisture and Runoff Products for Assessment and
Forecasting of Drought in the Continental U.S.
PI Andy Wood
(transferring to D. Lettenmaier) NEW TRACS Project FY2007
objective: using UW Surface Water Monitor as testbed, develop and
transition drought products & analysis approaches to NCEP (EMC/CPC).
examples: ensemble seasonal runoff
& soil moisture predictions
products are now inputs to:
CPC Drought Outlook
USDA NWCC Weekly Drought Report
NIDIS Drought Portal
CPC Drought Briefing
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QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
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QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
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QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
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QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
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QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
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FY2008 TRACS “COPING WITH
DROUGHT” Request for Proposals (RFP)
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“Proposals should focus on developing and
transitioning products to support drought
planning and the communication of climate
impact information tailored to specific
regional needs, including products and
services of relevance to the US Drought
Portal (USDP) web initiative and complying
with USDP technical standards and
requirements.”
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TRACS FY2008
Proposal Submission Guidance
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“TRACS encourages proposals that knit together researchers
with current climate services activities at one or more of the
following organizations representing operational, extension or
decision maker communities: National Weather Service (NWS)
Regional Headquarters (RFOs), NWS Weather Forecast Offices
(WFOs), NWS River Forecast Centers (RFCs), NOAA/NWS Climate
Prediction Center (CPC), Climate Test Bed (CTB), Hydrometeorological Testbed (HMT), National Climatic Data Center
(NCDC), Regional Climate Centers (RCCs), the International
Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), state climatologist's
offices (SCOs), RISA Teams, the National Drought Mitigation Center
(NDMC), the National Integrated Drought Information System
(NIDIS), US Drought Portal (USDP), US Drought Monitor (USDM),
other federal, state, and local agencies or extension services, and the
private sector.”
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EMERGING POLICY AND
PROGRAM ISSUES
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TRACS: EMERGING ISSUES
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EMPHASES FROM GRANT COMPETITION
REVIEWS THAT HAVE EMERGED:
“UPSTREAM” to National level (to NOAA): tools that benefit the
community nationally & internationally (favored):
 derives more value from the science because the tool is multiplied
across many users nationwide - more “bang” for $
 But will have more diffuse benefits that are harder to measure
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NOAA should pay?
“DOWNSTREAM” to Regional/Local level: tools that benefit users in
the project—Nation only as scalable or transferable:
 harder to judge overall value because more focused on increased
benefits for particular region/sector/user
 But will derive better specific feedback from the users about the
value of the science and information
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users should pay?
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TRACS: EMERGING ISSUES
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Upgrades to existing information tools/websites vs.
new tools -- and specifically, level of maturity of
tools?
What does it mean to provide climate
services/information “operationally” (definition; who’s
role?) -- specifically, climate change information?
(ie that only needs to be updated periodically)

Support for broader CLIMATE SERVICES
DEVELOPMENT activities?
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TRACS: FUTURE PROGRAM DIRECTION?
REGIONAL “Climate Services” CORES &
CLIMATE EXTENSION Activities
TRACS as Possible “home” in NOAA for Regional Climate Cores
and for Climate Extension:
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“Climate cores…will be forums at which the regional climate
communities, defined on the basis of climate-sensitive issues, can
participate to share regional and local science, present challenges
faced within their region, and allow expressions of need on the part
of potential users…[and] will provide opportunities to establish
collaborations for leveraging funding opportunities such as the NOAA
Climate Transition Program.”
“The Cores will encompass a three-step process…[T]he second step
is developing a capacity for working in the research arena,
identifying resources, transfer of research to operations, maintaining
operations, and providing extension services to effectively deliver the
fruits of the research…with a clearly defined path for product
delivery…”
SOURCE: Fiona Horsfall, Harvey Hill, Roger Pulwarty, Kelly
Redmond (AMS Annual Meeting, 2005)
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TRACS: Regional Climate Cores
FOCI For Climate Extension and Services
CLIMATE CORE field activities that could be supported by
TRACS, examples:
 a) regular fora (e.g. annual Colorado River Basin Outlook)
 b) regular workshops (e.g. sector engagement – Western
States Water Council (WSWC))
 c) routine training (e.g. CPC forecasters working with RISAs)
 d) facilitating routine user engagement with operational
forecast and data centers - user needs workshops
 e) systematic test-beds/demonstration projects for climate
services (partnerships with public utilities or the private sector;
also supporting monitoring or forecasting system development)
 f) climate extension specialists (70% extension/30% research):
”beat cops” or “circuit riders” to engage user communities (e.g.
CLIMAS-RISA, University of Arizona; SECC-RISA, Florida)*
*Source: Mike Crimmins, UArizona
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