Transcript 2014 Broward County Population Projection Allocation Update

Broward County 2014 TAZ and
Municipal Forecasts Update
Wednesday, March 19, 2014
Broward County 2014 TAZ and Municipal
Forecasts Update
I.
Introduction to the 2014 Population Projection
Allocation Update Overview
II.
Bureau of Economic and Business Research Population Forecast
(BEBR)
III.
BEBR Forecast by Age for Broward County
IV.
Broward County Households by Age of Householder
V.
Broward County Households by Household Size
VI.
Assignment of Dwelling Units, Households, and Household
Population to Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs)
VII.
Municipal Forecast of Dwelling Units, Households, and Population
I. Introduction to the Broward County 2014 TAZ
and Municipal Forecasts Update

An update of forecast model developed in 2012 that was
professionally acceptable and replicable.

A continuation and update of the County’s 2012 TAZ and Municipal
Forecasts.

The update includes modifications and comments obtained from
the 2012 Population Roundtable process approved methodology.

Replaced internally-developed countywide forecasts with
population forecasts prepared by University of Florida’s BEBR.
I. Introduction to the Broward County 2014 TAZ and
Municipal Forecasts Update
Key Input

University of Florida’s BEBR, “Detailed Population Projections by Age, Sex, Race, and
Hispanic Origin, for Florida and Its Counties, 2015-2040, With Estimates for 2012 All
Races”
Key Action

Convert and assign the BEBR forecasted estimates (2015-2040) to Broward County’s 2010
TAZ and municipalities using a household based model.
Key Output

Forecasts of households, household size, group quarters’ population, seasonally-occupied
housing units, and all-other vacant units for years 2015 through 2040 in 5-year increments
and supporting documentation.

TAZ and municipal level forecasts of housing and population data for years 2015 through
2040 in 5-year increments.
** Base year of 2010 provided for reference purposes.
I. Introduction to the Broward County 2014 TAZ and
Municipal Forecasts Update
Household-Based Model Assumptions

BEBR’s forecasts by population age are converted to countywide
household forecasts. Assigned to TAZ based on interaction
between
1. The change in the countywide household-size distribution
through forecast periods;
2. The established TAZ-level distribution of households; and
3. The capacity of each TAZ to absorb additional housing units.
Generally based on the Land Use Plan and vacant land
capacity.
II. BEBR Population Forecast




BEBR annually projects population for Florida and its counties.
The percentage change between 2012 and 2040 is approximately
14.8%.
County population growth is projected to average 10,000 annually
through 2025 and 8,800 for the remainder of the period.
Growth is dramatically lower than County’s historic growth which
averaged 20,000 or more annually between 1970 and 2005.
II. BEBR Population Forecast
Broward Amongst Other Counties
Rank and Population of Florida's 10 Most Populous Counties


2012
County
Population
2025
County
Population
2040
County
Population
MIAMI-DADE
BROWARD
PALM BEACH
HILLSBOROUGH
2,551,290
1,771,099
1,335,415
1,256,118
MIAMI-DADE
BROWARD
PALM BEACH
HILLSBOROUGH
2,892,389
1,901,480
1,545,998
1,543,143
MIAMI-DADE
BROWARD
HILLSBOROUGH
ORANGE
3,204,915
2,033,471
1,823,183
1,798,433
ORANGE
PINELLAS
DUVAL
LEE
POLK
BREVARD
1,175,941
920,381
869,729
638,029
606,888
545,625
ORANGE
DUVAL
PINELLAS
LEE
POLK
BREVARD
1,494,880
969,678
923,619
858,524
750,467
616,941
PALM BEACH
LEE
DUVAL
PINELLAS
POLK
PASCO
1,733,331
1,070,250
1,063,669
926,376
888,348
727,324
Source: compiled by Broward County Planning and Redevelopment Division from Table 1 (BEBR Population Forecasts by
County
Most of the future growth will continue to occur primarily in the
most populous counties.
Through 2040, Miami-Dade and Broward Counties remain 1st and
2nd.
II. BEBR Population Forecast
Broward Amongst Other Counties
10 Largest Population Increases among Florida Counties
2012 to 2025
County
MIAMI-DADE
ORANGE
HILLSBOROUGH
LEE
341,099
318,939
287,025
220,495
PALM BEACH
POLK
210,583 PALM BEACH
143,579 POLK
PASCO
BROWARD
OSCEOLA
DUVAL

2025 to 2040
County
Increase
131,677
130,381
123,613
99,949
MIAMI-DADE
ORANGE
HILLSBOROUGH
LEE
BROWARD
PASCO
OSCEOLA
DUVAL
Increase
312,526
303,553
280,040
211,726
187,333
137,881
131,991
127,085
121,453
93,991
Source: compiled by Broward County Planning and Redevelopment Division from
Table 1 (BEBR Population Forecasts by County
Much of Florida’s population growth (25% or nearly 1.7 million
additional people by 2040) will be seen in a swath crossing the
middle portion of the Florida Peninsula, including Orange,
Hillsborough, Polk, Pasco and Osceola Counties.
II. BEBR Population Forecast
Reflections on Recent History
 Past growth was accommodated by the County’s supply of ample
vacant developable land.
 By 2005, nearly all the vacant developable land in the County
was built out.
 Future growth now is primarily dependent on redevelopment.
25-29
113,720
112,793
125,078
120,536
122,586
121,012
122,452
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
114,350
117,283
126,084
137,500
118,392
111,849
117,369
127,551
120,364
122,814
112,382
114,297
131,223
121,841
120,468
109,747
129,023
136,775
122,797
117,650
129,315
131,316
134,824
120,497
130,287
135,675
133,255
132,499
III. BEBR Forecast by Age for Broward County
50-54 County
135,654
139,028
123,766
Broward
Population,
by Age Group
55-59through118,746
128,048
134,544
2012
2040
111,298
106,670
115,105
117,887
120,161
107,951
104,012
112,309
Estimates
60-64
99,541 Projections
107,620
123,304
130,305
116,314
105,293
101,126
2012
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
65-69
77,922
87,837
103,168
116,595
125,934
111,209
102,462
Total
1,771,099
1,797,981
1,850,809
1,901,480
1,948,726
1,992,208
2,033,471
70-74
57,768
64,288
81,890
94,084
109,870
116,269
105,992
0-4
104,366
104,834
106,812
108,679
109,365
111,346
111,100
75-79
44,398
44,793
57,463
69,207
85,067
93,885
106,556
5-9
105,825
107,296
105,036
109,548
109,542
112,732
113,241
80-84
38,196
38,729
36,261
46,241
56,640
69,107
77,912
10-14
110,909
107,808
110,846
107,591
111,734
112,706
115,731
85+
43,699
47,782
50,141
55,463
59,842
74,523
85,896
15-19
113,836
112,085
111,116
111,376
109,600
112,843
115,506
184,061
15-17University
71,558
70,447
69,786
69,887“Detailed Population
68,721 Projections
70,745by Age,376,356
Source:
of Florida, Bureau
of Economic and
Business Research,
Sex,72,400
Race,
and Hispanic Origin for Florida and Its Counties 2015-2040, With Estimates for 2012” June 2013
18-19
42,278
41,638
41,330
41,489
40,879
42,098
43,106
20-24
111,302
119,879
111,527
117,117
111,366
116,214
113,585
113,720
112,793
121,012
25-29By 2040,
the number
of 125,078
residents120,536
ages 70122,586
and greater
is 122,452
30-34
114,350
118,392
120,364
131,223
129,023
129,315
130,287
projected to more than double the 2012 count.
35-39
117,283
111,849
122,814
121,841
136,775
131,316
135,675
40-44
126,084
117,369
112,382
120,468
122,797
134,824
133,255
45-49
137,500
127,551
114,297
109,747
117,650
120,497
132,499
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
135,654
118,746
99,541
77,922
139,028
128,048
107,620
87,837
123,766
134,544
123,304
103,168
111,298
120,161
130,305
116,595
106,670
107,951
116,314
125,934
115,105
104,012
105,293
111,209
117,887
112,309
101,126
102,462
70-74
75-79
80-84
57,768
44,398
38,196
64,288
44,793
38,729
81,890
57,463
36,261
94,084
69,207
46,241
109,870
85,067
56,640
116,269
93,885
69,107
105,992
106,556
77,912
III. BEBR Forecast by Age for Broward County

Impacts from age cohort changes become more apparent as
groups are consolidated.
Broward County Population, by Selected Age Cohort
2012 through 2040
Age
Cohort
School Age (1)
New Householders (2)
Peak Earners (3)
Baby Boom (4)
Estimates
2012
Projections
2015
330,570
345,353
399,238
491,441
327,189
343,034
383,948
462,533
(1) Approximated by using ages 5-19
(2) Approximated by using ages 25-39
(3) Approximated by using ages 40-54
(4) Approximated by calculating ages for those born years 1946-1964
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
326,998
368,256
350,445
442,906
328,515
373,600
341,513
410,191
330,876
388,384
347,117
377,511
338,281
381,643
370,426
353,784
344,478
388,414
383,641
270,364
III. BEBR Forecast by Age for Broward County
Broward County Population, by Selected Age Cohort
2012 through 2040
Age
Cohort
School Age (1)
New Householders (2)
Peak Earners (3)
Baby Boom (4)
Estimates
2012
Projections
2015
330,570
345,353
399,238
491,441
327,189
343,034
383,948
462,533
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
326,998
368,256
350,445
442,906
328,515
373,600
341,513
410,191
330,876
388,384
347,117
377,511
338,281
381,643
370,426
353,784
344,478
388,414
383,641
270,364
(2) Approximated
by usingwithin
ages 25-39
Impacts
from
the age cohorts
(1) Approximated by using ages 5-19
(3) Approximated by using ages 40-54
(4) Approximated by calculating ages for those born years 1946-1964

Total “School Age” population remains relatively stable.

“New Householders” generally increases over the forecast, though there are a
couple of periods of stagnation or even slight declines.

“Peak Earners” cohort trends downward as the workforce is eroded through
life events (retirement)

By 2040, the baby-boom cohort is decreased by more than half of its 2012
size.
III. BEBR Forecast by Age for Broward County
Impacts from within the
age cohorts

Baby-Boomer households downsizing
will compete against new household
creation and have impacts on the
need for health care services, placing
increasing demands on Medicare and
Medicaid while reducing the number
of wage-earners and associated tax
revenues.

While the population gradually
increases, the number of people
generally considered as potential
participants in the labor force remains
constant through 2025 and declines
thereafter.

Relatively fewer dollars circulating in
the economy.
QUESTIONS
IV. Broward County Households by Age of Householder

Principal component in determining the number of households is
the age distribution of the population.
Householders as Percent of Age Group,
Broward County 2000, 2010, and for Forecasts
Householder 15 to 24 years
Householder 25 to 34 years
Householder 35 to 44 years
Householder 45 to 54 years
Householder 55 to 59 years
Householder 60 to 64 years
Householder 65 to 74 years
Householder 75 to 84 years
Householder 85 years and over
2000 (1)
2010 (3)
Forecast (4)
12.10%
46.10%
54.67%
58.08%
58.38% (2)
58.83% (2)
61.39%
66.55%
66.17%
9.07%
41.51%
52.45%
56.78%
58.38%
60.32%
62.09%
65.43%
70.32%
11.09%
44.57%
53.93%
57.64%
58.38%
59.33%
61.62%
66.18%
70.32%
(1) Calculated from SF1 2000 Census Tables H016, QT-P1
(2) Calculated from SF3 2000 Census Tables H014, P008
(3) Calculated from SF1 2010 Census Tables H17, QT-P1
(4) Broward County Planning & Environmental Regulation Division

The Forecast Percentages reflect a weighted average of
twice the 2000 percentages and one of the 2010.
IV. Broward County Households by Age of Householder

Broward County Householders by Age Group calculated by
applying the forecasted percentage of householders as percent of
age group applied to population by age groups.
Broward County Householders by Age Group, 2010 - 2040
Census
Householder Age
2010
15 to 24 years
25 to 34 years
35 to 44 years
45 to 54 years
55 to 59 years
60 to 64 years
65 to 74 years
75 to 84 years
85 years and over
19,872
93,176
131,862
157,306
65,794
56,997
77,826
54,012
29,202
Total
686,047
Forecast Households
2015
2020
25,734
103,037
123,613
153,668
74,755
63,847
93,746
55,276
33,601
727,277
24,700
109,391
126,837
137,230
78,547
73,152
114,040
62,028
35,260
761,185
Source: Broward County Planning and Redevelopment Division
2025
2030
2035
2040
25,349
112,207
130,673
127,420
70,150
77,305
129,829
76,405
39,003
24,514
112,140
139,983
129,308
63,022
69,005
145,312
93,783
42,082
25,412
111,569
143,525
135,812
60,722
62,467
140,181
107,870
52,406
25,415
112,644
145,029
144,334
65,566
59,994
128,458
122,083
60,404
788,341
819,149
839,964
863,927
IV. Broward County Households by Age of Householder
Inside the County’s Householders by Age Forecast

Most rapid household increases
occur during the current five-year
period.

As the baby-boomer household
numbers decline from their peak,
there may be an oversupply of
larger family homes awaiting
occupancy.

Doubling of the 65 and older
households while the 45 to 64 age
group gradually declines.

Forecasts portend housing unit
growth at a more subdued pace
than County experienced during
nearly the entire last half century.
V. Broward County Households by Household Size
Household Size Distribution for Householders, by Age
Broward County, 2015 through 2040
Age of Householder/PPH
15 to 24 years
25 to 34 years
35 to 44 years
45 to 54 years
55 to 64 years
65 to 74 years
75 to 84 years
85 years and over
1
2
3
4
5
6
7+
Total
20.70%
22.67%
20.84%
25.93%
31.13%
37.65%
46.01%
48.92%
33.08%
34.61%
21.89%
23.66%
34.54%
46.88%
44.07%
44.02%
21.25%
19.37%
18.45%
18.22%
16.41%
9.05%
6.99%
5.53%
12.52%
13.40%
21.48%
18.51%
10.84%
3.59%
1.99%
1.22%
7.10%
6.06%
10.91%
8.55%
4.28%
1.50%
0.56%
0.24%
2.96%
2.46%
3.92%
3.18%
1.74%
0.76%
0.26%
0.06%
2.40%
1.43%
2.51%
1.95%
1.06%
0.56%
0.11%
0.01%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%

Source: Browardthe
County
Planning and
Redevelopment
Division
Represents
average
household
size
distribution for the County according to the
identified age groups and household size for the years 2015-2040.

Percentages calculated using the Census 2000 from Summary File 1 for the County.

2010 percentages were estimated from the 2000 distribution rates and calibrated to the
2010 actual distribution.

Both rates were combined using a weighted average of twice the 2000 percentages and
one of the 2010.
V. Broward County Households by Household Size
Units by Household Size, Seasonal Use, and All Other Vacant
Broward County, 2010 through 2040
Persons-per-Household
1
2
3
4
5
6
7+
Units
Occ.
Seas.
Oth. Vac.
Total
197,539
212,400
214,137
236,115
111,564 92,283 42,495 16,637 11,392
112,021 90,975 41,992 16,145 10,146
686,047 55,120
719,794 53,297
69,221
53,357
810,388
826,448
223,805
235,677
250,426
263,801
114,267 90,936 41,834 16,150 10,154
115,782 90,837 41,773 16,162 10,175
747,572 55,354
774,207 57,326
55,416
57,391
858,342
888,924
2035
245,700
254,042
273,887
280,580
116,674 91,378 42,120 16,284 10,259
117,854 92,342 42,601 16,441 10,351
796,302 58,962
814,211 60,288
59,028
60,356
914,292
934,855
2040
261,009
285,668
119,527 93,715 43,177 16,635 10,447
830,178 61,470
61,540
953,188
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Source: Broward County Planning and Redevelopment Division. Note: Household distribution was altered to
accommodate the total population forecasts prepared by BEBR. The difference between the Occupied Units of
Key Findings
Table 11 and Household Totals from Table 8 is less than 1%. See explanation in discussion of Table 12.
the results
of the
distribution
percentages
to the
 94%Displays
of household
growth
from
2010 to 2040
is found applied
in the smaller
forecast households.
households.
This can be traced back to the growth in householders
ages 75 and older, which can account for nearly all household growth
beginning
Contains
theyear
household
with
2020. and housing unit information to be assigned
to Broward’s TAZs.
 Mid-size households increases are minor and larger households decline
over the forecast period.
V. Broward County Households by Household Size
Units by Household Size, Seasonal Use, and All Other Vacant
Broward County, 2010 through 2040
Persons-per-Household
1
2
3
4
5
6
7+
Units
Occ.
Seas.
Oth. Vac.
Total
197,539
212,400
214,137
236,115
111,564 92,283 42,495 16,637 11,392
112,021 90,975 41,992 16,145 10,146
686,047 55,120
719,794 53,297
69,221
53,357
810,388
826,448
223,805
235,677
250,426
263,801
114,267 90,936 41,834 16,150 10,154
115,782 90,837 41,773 16,162 10,175
747,572 55,354
774,207 57,326
55,416
57,391
858,342
888,924
2035
245,700
254,042
273,887
280,580
116,674 91,378 42,120 16,284 10,259
117,854 92,342 42,601 16,441 10,351
796,302 58,962
814,211 60,288
59,028
60,356
914,292
934,855
2040
261,009
285,668
119,527 93,715 43,177 16,635 10,447
830,178 61,470
61,540
953,188
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Source: Broward County
Planning and Redevelopment Division. Note: Household distribution was altered to
Key Findings
(continued)
accommodate the total population forecasts prepared by BEBR. The difference between the Occupied Units of

Table 11 and Household Totals from Table 8 is less than 1%. See explanation in discussion of Table 12.
Empty-nesting
baby-boom generation will impact Broward’s housing
market. Whether decide to live in their current homes with extra rooms or
to “downsize” to smaller homes.

If enough downsize, there will be a significant demand for smaller homes
and an excess of larger homes.

If fewer households downsize, the impact likely would be to encourage
redevelopment in more selective areas.
V. Broward County Households by Household Size
Population in Households, by Household Size and by Group Quarters
Broward County, 2010 through 2040
Persons-per-Household
1
2
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
197,539
212,400
223,805
235,677
245,700
254,042
261,009
428,274
472,230
500,852
527,602
547,774
561,160
571,336
3
4
5
6
7+
Population
Household
Grp. Qtrs.
Total
334,692
336,063
342,801
347,346
350,022
353,562
358,581
369,132
363,900
363,744
363,348
365,512
369,368
374,860
212,475
209,960
209,170
208,865
210,600
213,005
215,885
99,822
96,870
96,900
96,972
97,704
98,646
99,810
89,240
79,480
79,542
79,707
80,365
81,086
81,838
1,731,174
1,770,903
1,816,814
1,859,517
1,897,677
1,930,869
1,963,319
16,892
17,269
17,719
18,142
18,505
18,829
19,147
1,748,066
1,788,172
1,834,533
1,877,659
1,916,182
1,949,698
1,982,466
Source: Broward County Planning and Redevelopment Division
 Presents household size table from a different perspective, the population
according to household size.
 While smaller households occupy the majority of housing units; more of the
population resides in mid-size households (3-, 4-, or 5-person households),
through 2020 slightly more than 50% and slightly less thereafter.
**Note: Household Population = the number of 1-person households + (2 * the number of 2-person
households) + (3 * the number of 3-person households) +…+ (7.83, average size of the 7+ households*
the number of 7+ households)
VI. Assignment of Dwelling Units, Households
and Household Population to TAZs

This stage of allocation occurs into the Broward County’s 2010 TAZ boundaries (953 unique
geographic areas).

Distributed to TAZs by a methodology that respects the individual TAZ’s unique set of
selected characteristics and its capacity to accept growth.

Allocation requires that each TAZ be assigned a maximum number of dwelling units. This
maximum reflects the influence of the Broward County Land Use Plan (amendments and
current designations) and vacant land capacity.

Served as the stage in the 2012 forecasts for the input from the 2012 Population
Roundtable process. Input included:
1.
2.
Estimated maximums for TAZs that contain Regional Activity Centers, Local Activity
Centers, Transportation Oriented Corridors or other irregular Land Use Plan
designations; and
Identification of TAZs for “redevelopment” since vacant residential lands are
exhausted by 2025.
VI. Assignment of Dwelling Units, Households
and Household Population to TAZs
Assignment methodology for TAZs
Step 1.
Determine #of households by size & vacant units required by
next forecast year: Convert existing household size distribution for
each TAZ to reflect anticipated countywide change distribution for
coming forecast year.
Step 2.
Determine attractiveness of each TAZ to accept growth: Vacant
Step 3.
Determine household size distribution of the additional units for
each TAZ: Based on unique distribution of household characteristics,
land capacity, land use plan and its existing housing inventory.
businesses in area, and nearby public services.
Step 4.
Determine preliminary total of households by size assigned to
each TAZ: Matrix of percentages of future growth by household size for
each TAZ.
Step 5.
Enforce TAZ unit maximums: TAZs exceeding maximum have excess
units apportioned by household size; subtracted from the TAZ; and
added into pool of households to be re-distributed.
VII. Municipal Forecast of Dwelling Units,
Households, and Population

Arranging the TAZ forecast data into its proper jurisdiction and
compiling the numbers creates the municipal forecast.
Methodology for assigning TAZs to jurisdictions
Step 1.
Assign TAZs to local jurisdictions: 2012 municipal boundary map
Step 2.
Apportion TAZs among multiple jurisdictions: 2010 Census Block
Step 3.
Benchmark the TAZ assignments to the 2010 Census: Review
Step 4.
Assign Group Quarters Population: Census 2010 rate of 0.97%
superimposed onto a TAZ boundary map creates a TAZ-to- jurisdiction cross
reference
data combined with aerial photography were used to establish the
portions of the TAZ forecasts assigned to each jurisdiction
compiled forecast data to see if differences greater than 1% existed.
applied to total population yields group quarters
Final Products of the Broward County 2014 TAZ
and Municipal Forecasts Update
Two Principal products of the forecasts
A shapefile and series of Excel Worksheets:




BasicTAZdata2014-DRAFT:
Table organizing TAZ-level forecasts by Dwelling
Units, Population ,and Households for 2010-2040 in
5-year increments.
Muni_TAZ_2014-DRAFT:
Set of tables displaying the final distribution of
housing and population to Broward County's local
jurisdictions by TAZ.
HouseholdTAZdata2014-DRAFT:
Set of tables representing TAZ -level
forecasts organized by housing data.
TAZ_FinalForecast2014-DRAFT:
Shapefile of the file, BasicTAZdata2014-DRAFT.
2014 TAZ and Municipal Forecasts Update Report

Contains all tables referenced in presentation
Environmental Protection and Growth Management Department
Planning and Redevelopment Division
115 South Andrews Avenue, Room 329K
Fort Lauderdale, FL 33301
Broward.org/EnvironmentAndGrowth/
954.357.6634