Transcript lawfare in support of china`s regional objectives

在中南海（与全世界）三种战争，
法律战争
China’s Legal Warfare in the South
China Sea (and worldwide)
在中南海（與全世界）三種戰爭，
法律戰爭
美国鹦鹉螺研究所
The Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability
美國鸚鵡螺研究所
Main Points
• China’s actions in the South China Sea (and anywhere law is
weak or non existent) have a coherence, context and unfold
generally according to design.
• Legal WARFARE is warfare; it is not new, but the specific
implementation guidelines are new.
• China’s Three Warfares of Psychological, Media and Legal
warfare are complementary, simultaneous and asymmetric
means of achieving political effects sans kinetic actions.
• China’s application of Three Warfares sidesteps most
traditional Western military theory.
• Three Warfares are always “on”; setpre-conditions for kinetic
warfare, enhance conditions during kinetic warfare and gain
maximum effect post-conflict should deterrence fail.
• The most important battlespace is the mind of others.
• Three Warfares are a tacit recognition that nuclear weapons
are essentially unusable.
NOTE: The views expressed in this report do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Nautilus Institute. Nautilus seeks a diversity of views and
opinions on significant topics in order to identify common ground.
Sources of China’s Strategic culture
• Confucianist & Legalist: Sovereignty is absolute. If there is a
peer, there is no sovereignty.
• 1990 - Deng Xiaoping’s 24 character formula for China’s
involvement with the world
• 1997 - 16 character formula for civil-military relations
• 2003 - Communist Party, Central Committee and the
Central Military Commission approve new Political Work
Regulations signifying unanimous approval from all three
levers of power: Party, State and Military
• 2010 - Revised guidelines for Political Work
• 2013 – China’s National Security Council established.
Primarily domestic-focused. For China, South China Sea is a
domestic issue.
• 2014 – China’s National Security Council announces it held
its inaugural meeting.
What are the Three WARFARES?
Overview
• China’s Three Warfares 三种战争 or shortened to 三战
san zhan are complementary, asymmetric, concurrent
campaigns to win without fighting.
• Approval in 2003 by China’s Communist Party, Central
Committee and the Central Military Commission indicates
support from Party, Government and Military – three main
levers of power.
• Specific details in Chapter 2, Section 18 of Chinese People’s
Liberation Army Political Work Regulations.
• Psychological Warfare 心里战争 xinli zhanzheng
• Media Warfare 舆论战争 yulun zhanzheng NOTE: more
correctly translated as public opinion warfare
• Legal Warfare 法律战争 falv zhanzheng
What are the Three WARFARES?
Psychological Warfare 心里战争
• Psychological Warfare 心里战争 xinli zhanzheng
“seeks to undermine an enemy’s ability to conduct
combat operations through operations aimed at
deterring, shocking, and demoralizing enemy military
personnel and supporting civilian populations.” DOD
definition
• Tools: Express displeasure, assert hegemony, convey
threats, reward Beijing orthodoxy
• Methods: Economic boycotts (RP bananas), applying
diplomatic pressure, harassing fishing vessels, building
oil rigs, selling oil exploration blocs
• Actors: State Owned Enterprises (e.g. CNOOC), Ministry
of Foreign Affairs, Research institutions
What are the Three WARFARES?
Media Warfare舆论战争
• Media Warfare 舆论战争 yulun zhanzheng “is aimed
at influencing domestic and international public
opinion to build support for China’s military actions
and dissuade an adversary from pursuing actions
contrary to China’s interests.” DOD Definition
• Tools: films, television, books, the internet, Chinese
news outlets abroad
• Methods: Allow semblance of Chinese debate, while
using those voices as reasons to avoid compromise.
Present Chinese case abroad, prevent outside views
from coming in.
• Actors: CCTV, Xinhua, social media, overseas Chinese,
What are the Three WARFARES?
Legal Warfare法律战争 1 of 4
• Legal Warfare 法律战争 xinli zhanzheng “uses
international and domestic law to claim the
legal high ground or assert Chinese interests.
Can be used to thwart an opponent’s
operational freedom & shape the operational
space. Also used to build international
support and manage political repercussions of
China’s military actions. DOD Definition
What are the Three WARFARES?
Legal Warfare法律战争 2 of 4
• Tools:
– Existing international law such as UNCLOS
– Domestic laws
– Internationally accepted conventions e.g creating
an ADIZ ( Air Defense Identification Zone),
– Cartography
– Access to Chinese officials, businesses and
scholars
What are the Three WARFARES?
Legal Warfare法律战争 3 of 4
• Methods:
– Interpret law selectively
– Pass domestic law, but require international
acceptance (e.g. giving Sansha city administrative
power over South China Sea or making foreign air and
sea vessels comply with ADIZ)
– Seek international legislation
– Attempt to handle matters bi-laterally instead of
multi-laterally
– Use law enforcement authorities equipped with
military equipment instead of military forces.
What are the Three WARFARES?
Legal Warfare法律战争 4 of 5
• Actors: National, Provincial, Municipal levels,
businesses, academics, international societies. Figure
on next page shows selected official actors.
• Significant possibilities for individual / low-level activity
that is not coordinated at top-level, but fits within
perceived guidelines
• According to the director of the Military Lawyers
Association Professional Committee 军事专业委员会,
there are 200,000 Chinese lawyers involved in military,
national defense and diplomacy matters.
What are the Three WARFARES?
Legal Warfare法律战争 5 of 5
Recommendations (for the US)
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Strengthen alliance management.
Strengthen civil societies and facilitate stronger networks among the civil societies
in order to prevent wedges.
Pass Free Trade Agreements with all allies and grant preferential trade to US
friends
Enforce fair trade practices with China – possibly even in a tit-for-tat fashion.
Develop and promulgate a comprehensive, coherent non-military plan which Air
Sea Battle should support.
Aggressively conduct Freedom of Navigation exercises (air and maritime), - even
against friendly countries – to demonstrate commitment to rule of law.
Encourage external civil societies to produce more Chinese-language content to
inform / temper debates in Chinese social media.
Deny visas for selected Chinese media until China improves media freedom and
allows outside media the same kinds of access Chinese media enjoys in the West.
Increase US involvement and support for regional fora – mini-coalitions dedicated
to strengthening normative behavior.
Increase public diplomacy to educate the public on the Three Warfares and their
applicability to Sovereignty, Space, Air, Maritime, Internet, Economic, Diplomatic
and Academic spheres – there is a multi-spectral challenge to the established world
order
Parting Thoughts
• Being unconquerable resides in you, being
conquerable resides with the enemy 不可胜
在己，可胜在敌 bu kesheng zai ji, kesheng
zai di
• Whether in a Westphalian, anarchic or
Confucian concept of international relations, it
is up to every country to defend its own
interests.
谢谢 / Thank You / 謝謝
美国鹦鹉螺研究所
The Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability
美國鸚鵡螺研究所
www.nautilus.org