Transcript Microsoft Powerpoint ( 8.35 MB ) - Office of the State Demographer

Demographic Characteristics
and Trends in Texas:
Implications for Colleges and
Universities
Texas Association of
State Senior College
and University
Business Officers
February 9, 2015
Austin, Texas
Total Population and Components of Population Change
in Texas, 1950-2013
Year*
Population
Numeric
Change
--
Annual
Percent
Change
1950
7,711,194
--
1960
9,579,677
1,868,483
2.4
1970
11,196,730
1,617,053
1.7
1980
14,229,191
3,032,461
2.7
1990
16,986,510
2,757,319
2.0
2000
20,851,820
3,865,310
2.3
2010
25,145,561
4,293,741
2.1
2012
26,060,796
915,235
1.8
2013
26,448,193
387,397
1.4
2014
26,956,958
451,321
1.7
* All values for the decennial dates are for April 1st of the indicated census year.
Values for 2012 and 2013 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census Counts and Population Estimates
Note: Residual values are not presented in this table.
2
Texas Population Growth 1950-2010
30,000,000
25,000,000
20,000,000
15,000,000
10,000,000
5,000,000
0
1950
1960
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census Counts
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Components of Population Change by Percent
in Texas, 1950-2010
Migration
Natural Increase
10.5%
13.3%
34.1%
58.5%
89.5%
50.3%
46.3%
49.7%
53.7%
1990s
2000s
86.7%
65.9%
41.5%
1950s
1960s
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates
1970s
1980s
Net Migration
Percent of 2010-2013
Population Change
from Net Migration
Ft. Worth
Dallas
Midland
Austin
Houston
San Antonio
12.1% – 50%
50.1% – 60%
60.1% – 70%
70.1% – 99%
One third of the top 40 fastest growing counties in
the United States are in Texas, 2012 to 2013
U.S.
Rank
5
9
10
11
13
22
23
25
28
32
35
39
Geography
Kendall County, Texas
Fort Bend County, Texas
Hays County, Texas
Andrews County, Texas
Dimmit County, Texas
Comal County, Texas
Ector County, Texas
Ward County, Texas
Williamson County, Texas
Montgomery County, Texas
Denton County, Texas
Gaines County, Texas
Population Estimate
2012
35,968
625,853
169,013
16,137
10,481
114,590
144,609
10,887
456,359
484,790
708,050
18,393
2013
37,766
652,365
176,026
16,799
10,897
118,480
149,378
11,244
471,014
499,137
728,799
18,921
Change, 2012 to 2013
Number
1,798
26,512
7,013
662
416
3,890
4,769
357
14,655
14,347
20,749
528
Percent
5.0
4.2
4.1
4.1
4.0
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.0
2.9
2.9
Counties in bold had growth associated with oil and gas extraction
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013
6
One fourth of U.S. counties in the top 40 for
numeric growth are in Texas, 2012-2013
U.S.
Rank
Geography
Population Estimate
Change, 2012 to 2013
2013
4,336,853
Number
82,890
Percent
1.9
1
Harris County, Texas
2012
4,253,963
6
Bexar County, Texas
1,785,787
1,817,610
31,823
1.8
8
Tarrant County, Texas
1,881,445
1,911,541
30,096
1.6
11
Fort Bend County, Texas
625,853
652,365
26,512
4.2
12
Dallas County, Texas
2,453,907
2,480,331
26,424
1.1
15
Travis County, Texas
1,096,246
1,120,954
24,708
2.3
22
Denton County, Texas
708,050
728,799
20,749
2.9
24
33
35
Collin County, Texas
Williamson County, Texas
Montgomery County, Texas
834,674
456,359
484,790
854,778
471,014
499,137
20,104
14,655
14,347
2.4
3.2
3.0
7
County Population Change,
Texas, 1950-2010
1960
1950
1980
1970
2000
1990
2010
Total Population by
County
Estimated Change of the Total Population by
County, Texas, 2010 to 2013
Legend
tl_2010_48_county10_dpsf
Nch1013
Dallam
Lipscomb
Hansford
Sherman
Ochiltree
Hartley
Moore
Roberts
Hutchinson
Hemphill
Oldham
Potter Carson
Deaf
Smith
Armstrong
Randall
-800-0
1-1,000
Parmer Castro
99 counties lost
population over the
three year period
Gray Wheeler
Collingsworth
Donley
Briscoe
Swisher
Hall Childress
Hardeman
Wilbarger
Wichita
Foard
Clay
Hockley
Lamar Red
Lubbock
Crosby Dickens King Knox Baylor Archer
Montague Cooke Grayson Fannin
Cochran
River
Bowie
Stonewall
Throckmorton
Jack Wise Denton
Delta
Titus
Collin
Garza
Kent
Lynn
Young
Yoakum Terry
Haskell
Hunt
Franklin
Morris Cass
Camp
Stephens
Rockwall Rains
Palo Parker Tarrant
Wood Upshur Marion
Dallas
Gaines Dawson Borden Scurry Fisher
Shackelford
Pinto
Van
Jones
Gregg Harrison
Kaufman Zandt
Eastland Erath Hood Johnson Ellis
Smith
Nolan Taylor Callahan
Andrews Martin Howard
Somervell
Henderson
Rusk Panola
Mitchell
Navarro
Cherokee
Hill
Comanche
Coke Runnels
Bosque
Glasscock
Loving Winkler Ector
Anderson
Shelby
Sterling
Coleman Brown
Midland
Hamilton
Freestone
Nacogdoches
Culberson
Tom
Limestone
Ward Crane
Mills
San Sabine
Coryell McLennan
Upton Reagan Irion Green Concho
Reeves
Leon Houston
Augustine
Falls
McCulloch San Lampasas
Jasper
Trinity
Bell
Saba
Robertson Madison
Newton
Schleicher Menard
Burnet
Crockett
Polk Tyler
Jeff
Milam
Pecos
Walker
Mason Llano
San
Brazos
Williamson
Davis
Kimble
Burleson Grimes
Jacinto
Sutton
Blanco
Gillespie
Hardin
Travis
Lee
Montgomery
Washington
Orange
Terrell
Bastrop
Kerr
Hays
Liberty
Presidio
Edwards
Val
Kendall
Waller
Fayette
Jefferson
Real
Harris
Caldwell
Brewster
Verde
Comal
Bandera
Austin
Chambers
Guadalupe
Fort
Colorado
Bexar
Bend
Galveston
Gonzales
Lavaca
Medina
Kinney Uvalde
Wharton
Wilson
Brazoria
DeWitt
Jackson
Maverick Zavala
Frio Atascosa Karnes
Victoria
Matagorda
Goliad
Calhoun
Live Bee
Dimmit
La Salle
Refugio
Oak
McMullen
San Aransas
Patricio
Jim
Webb
Nueces
Duval Wells
1,001-20,000
Bailey Lamb
Hale
Floyd Motley Cottle
20,001-80,000
80,000-228,000
tl_2010_48_county10_dpsf
El Paso
Pctch1013
Hudspeth
-0.106707 - 0.000000
0.000001 - 0.025000
0.025001 - 0.050000
0.050001 - 0.100000
0.100001 - 0.146341
tl_2010_48_county10_dpsf
Kleberg
POPESTIMATE2013
95-,10,000
Jim
Zapata Hogg Brooks Kenedy
Starr
Willacy
Hidalgo
Cameron
10,001-50,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2013 Vintage.
9
Estimated Percent Change of the Total Population by
County, Texas, 2010 to 2013
Legend
tl_2010_48_county10_dpsf
Pctch1013
-11-0%
0.1-2.5%
Dallam
Lipscomb
Hansford
Sherman
Ochiltree
Hartley
Moore
Roberts
Hutchinson
Hemphill
Oldham
Potter Carson
Deaf
Smith
Armstrong
Randall
Parmer Castro
2.51-5%
Gray Wheeler
Collingsworth
Donley
Briscoe
Swisher
Hall Childress
Hardeman
Wilbarger
Wichita
Foard
Clay
Hockley
Lamar Red
Lubbock
Baylor
Archer
Crosby Dickens King Knox
Montague Cooke Grayson Fannin
Cochran
River
Bowie
Stonewall
Throckmorton
Jack Wise Denton
Delta
Titus
Collin
Young
Yoakum Terry Lynn Garza Kent
Haskell
Hunt
Franklin
Morris Cass
Camp
Stephens
Rockwall Rains
Palo Parker Tarrant
Wood Upshur Marion
Dallas
Gaines Dawson Borden Scurry Fisher
Shackelford
Pinto
Van
Jones
Gregg Harrison
Kaufman Zandt
Eastland Erath Hood Johnson Ellis
Smith
Nolan Taylor Callahan
Andrews Martin Howard
Somervell
Henderson
Rusk Panola
Mitchell
Navarro
Cherokee
Hill
Comanche
Coke Runnels
Bosque
Glasscock
Loving Winkler Ector
Anderson
Shelby
Sterling
Coleman Brown
Midland
Hamilton
Freestone
Nacogdoches
Culberson
Tom
Limestone
Ward Crane
Mills
San Sabine
Coryell McLennan
Upton Reagan Irion Green Concho
Reeves
Leon Houston
Augustine
Falls
McCulloch San Lampasas
Jasper
Trinity
Bell
Saba
Robertson Madison
Newton
Schleicher Menard
Burnet
Crockett
Polk Tyler
Jeff
Milam
Pecos
Walker
Mason Llano
San
Brazos
Williamson
Davis
Kimble
Burleson Grimes
Jacinto
Sutton
Blanco
Gillespie
Hardin
Travis
Lee
Montgomery
Washington
Orange
Terrell
Bastrop
Kerr
Hays
Liberty
Presidio
Edwards
Val
Kendall
Waller
Fayette
Jefferson
Real
Harris
Brewster
Verde
Comal Caldwell
Bandera
Austin
Chambers
Guadalupe
Fort
Colorado
Bexar
Bend
Galveston
Gonzales Lavaca
Kinney Uvalde Medina
Wharton
Wilson
Brazoria
DeWitt
Jackson
Maverick Zavala
Frio Atascosa Karnes
Victoria
Matagorda
Goliad
Calhoun
Live Bee
Dimmit
La Salle
Refugio
Oak
McMullen
San Aransas
Patricio
Jim
Webb
Duval Wells Nueces
Bailey Lamb
Hale
Floyd Motley Cottle
5.1-10%
10.1-14.7%
El Paso
Hudspeth
Kleberg
Jim
Zapata Hogg Brooks Kenedy
Starr
Willacy
Hidalgo
Cameron
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2013 Vintage.
10
Estimated Number of Net Migrants by
County, Texas, 2012 to 2013
Legend
tl_2010_48_county10_dpsf
NETMIG2013
-10,500-0
1-500
Dallam
Lipscomb
Hansford
Sherman
Ochiltree
Hartley
Moore
Roberts
Hutchinson
Hemphill
Oldham
Potter Carson
Deaf
Smith
Armstrong
Randall
Parmer Castro
501-1,000
Gray Wheeler
Collingsworth
Donley
Briscoe
Swisher
Hall Childress
Hardeman
Wilbarger
Wichita
Foard
Clay
Hockley
Lamar Red
Lubbock
Baylor
Archer
Crosby Dickens King Knox
Montague Cooke Grayson Fannin
Cochran
River
Bowie
Stonewall
Throckmorton
Jack Wise Denton
Delta
Titus
Collin
Young
Yoakum Terry Lynn Garza Kent
Haskell
Hunt
Franklin
Morris Cass
Camp
Stephens
Rockwall Rains
Palo Parker Tarrant
Wood Upshur Marion
Dallas
Gaines Dawson Borden Scurry Fisher
Shackelford
Pinto
Van
Jones
Gregg Harrison
Kaufman Zandt
Eastland Erath Hood Johnson Ellis
Smith
Martin
Nolan
Taylor
Andrews
Howard
Callahan
Somervell
Henderson
Rusk Panola
Mitchell
Navarro
Cherokee
Hill
Comanche
Coke Runnels
Bosque
Glasscock
Loving Winkler Ector
Anderson
Shelby
Sterling
Coleman Brown
Midland
Hamilton
Freestone
Nacogdoches
Culberson
Tom
Limestone
Ward Crane
Mills
San Sabine
Coryell
McLennan
Upton Reagan Irion Green Concho
Reeves
Leon Houston
Augustine
Falls
McCulloch San Lampasas
Jasper
Trinity
Bell
Saba
Robertson Madison
Newton
Schleicher Menard
Burnet
Crockett
Polk Tyler
Jeff
Milam
Pecos
Walker
Mason Llano
San
Brazos
Williamson
Davis
Kimble
Burleson Grimes
Jacinto
Sutton
Blanco
Gillespie
Hardin
Travis
Lee
Montgomery
Washington
Orange
Terrell
Bastrop
Kerr
Hays
Liberty
Presidio
Edwards
Val
Kendall
Waller
Fayette
Jefferson
Real
Harris
Caldwell
Brewster
Verde
Comal
Bandera
Austin
Chambers
Guadalupe
Fort
Colorado
Bexar
Bend
Galveston
Gonzales
Lavaca
Kinney Uvalde Medina
Wharton
Wilson
Brazoria
DeWitt
Jackson
Karnes
Maverick Zavala
Frio Atascosa
Victoria
Matagorda
Goliad
Calhoun
Live Bee
Dimmit
La Salle
Refugio
Oak
McMullen
San Aransas
Patricio
Jim
Webb
Duval Wells Nueces
Bailey Lamb
Hale
Floyd Motley Cottle
1,001-5,000
5,001-10,000
10,001-40,200
El Paso
Hudspeth
Kleberg
Jim
Zapata Hogg Brooks Kenedy
Starr
Willacy
Hidalgo
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2013 Vintage.
Cameron
11
Population Density by Census Tract,
1970-2010
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Persons per Sq. Mile in
the Austin-San Antonio
Corridor
Legend
tl_2010_48_county10_dpsf
Pctch1013
0 – 10
-11-0%
0.1-2.5%
11 – 50
2.51-5%
51 – 500
5.1-10%
501 – 4,000
4,001 – 56,000
10.1-14.7%
Texas Leads U.S. Job Growth,
2004-2014
Washington
320,000
New York
550,000
California
North
Carolina
810,000
340,000
Texas
2,180,000
Texas Leads U.S. Job Growth, 2004-2014
Percentage of Total
U.S. Job Gains
Attributable to each
State
Texas
29%
11%
California
7%
4% 4%
New York
North Carolina
Washington
Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition,
2000 and 2010
2000
2010
Hispanic
or Latino
32%
Hispanic
or Latino
38%
NH
White
53%
NH
Other
4% NH Black
11%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census count
NH
Other
6%
NH
White
45%
NH Black
11%
0
Age
Under 1 year
4 years
8 years
12 years
16 years
20 years
24 years
28 years
32 years
36 years
40 years
44 years
48 years
52 years
56 years
60 years
64 years
68 years
72 years
76 years
80 years
84 years
88 years
92 years
96 years
100 to 104…
Population
Texas White (non-Hispanic) and
Hispanic Populations by Age, 2010
250000
200000
White (non-Hispanic)
150000
Hispanic
100000
50000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
16
Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
Male White, Non-Hispanic
Female White, Non-Hispanic
100 to 104 years
95 years
90 years
85 years
80 years
75 years
70 years
65 years
60 years
55 years
50 years
45 years
40 years
35 years
30 years
25 years
20 years
15 years
10 years
5 years
Under 1 year
200,000
150,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
100,000
50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
17
200,000
Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
Male Hispanic
Male Black, Non-Hispanic
Male Asian, Non-Hispanic
Male Other, Non Hispanic
Female Hispanic
Female Black, Non-Hispanic
Female Asian, Non-Hispanic
Female Other, Non Hispanic
100 to 104 years
95 years
90 years
85 years
80 years
75 years
70 years
65 years
60 years
55 years
50 years
45 years
40 years
35 years
30 years
25 years
20 years
15 years
10 years
5 years
Under 1 year
200,000
150,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
100,000
50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
18
200,000
Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
Male White, Non-Hispanic
Male Hispanic
Male Black, Non-Hispanic
Male Asian, Non-Hispanic
Male Other, Non Hispanic
Female White, Non-Hispanic
Female Hispanic
Female Black, Non-Hispanic
Female Asian, Non-Hispanic
Female Other, Non Hispanic
100 to 104 years
95 years
90 years
85 years
80 years
75 years
70 years
65 years
60 years
55 years
50 years
45 years
40 years
35 years
30 years
25 years
20 years
15 years
10 years
5 years
Under 1 year
200,000
150,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
100,000
50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
19
200,000
Projected Population Growth in Texas,
2010-2050
60,000,000
Migration Scenarios
55,000,000
Zero
50,000,000
.5 of 2000-2010
45,000,000
2000-2010
40,000,000
35,000,000
30,000,000
25,000,000
20,000,000
2010
2015
2020
2025
Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
20
Texas Population Change by Age Group,
2010-2030
2010 Male
2030 Male
2010 Female
2030 Female
85 years and older
80 to 84 years
75 to 79 years
70 to 74 years
65 to 69 years
60 to 65 years
55 to 59 years
50 to 65 years
45 to 49 years
40 to 44 years
35 to 39 years
30 to 34 years
25 to 29 years
20 to 24 years
15 to 19 years
10 to 14 years
5 to 9 years
Under 5
1,500
1,000
500
0
Thousands
Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections
500
1,000
1,500
Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent,
Texas, 2010-2050
35,000,000
30,000,000
25,000,000
20,000,000
15,000,000
10,000,000
NH-White
NH-Black
Hispanic
NH-Other
5,000,000
0
Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections , 2000-2010 Migration Scenario
22
Trends in Educational Attainment of Persons in the Labor
Force (25-64 Years of Age) in Texas by Race/Ethnicity –
High School Graduates and Above
100%
95%
90%
85%
White
80%
Black
75%
Hispanic
70%
Other
65%
60%
55%
50%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Public Use Micro Sample, 2001-2011
Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64) by
Educational Attainment for 2011, 2030 Using Constant Rates,
Texas
35.0%
31.3%
Percent of the Civilian Labor Force
30.0%
23.8%
25.0%
2011 ACS
29.9%
2030 Constant 2011 %
24.0%
20.1%
20.0%
15.0%
18.7%
18.1%
15.0%
9.8%
10.0%
9.3%
5.0%
0.0%
Less than High School
High School or
Equivalent
Some College /
Associate Degree
Educational Attainment
These should be going DOWN
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS.
Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario
Bachelor's Degree
Graduate or
Professional Degree
These should be going UP
24
Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64) by
Educational Attainment for 2011, and 2030 Using Trended
Rates, Texas
40.0%
34.3%
35.0%
2011 ACS
Percent of the Civilian Labor Force
31.3%
2030 Trended (2001-2011 Trend)
30.0%
23.8%
25.0%
22.1%
20.4%
20.1%
20.0%
15.0%
15.0%
11.8%
11.4%
9.8%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
Less than High School
High School or
Equivalent
Some College /
Associate Degree
Educational Attainment
These should be going DOWN
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS.
Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario
Bachelor's Degree
Graduate or
Professional Degree
These should be going UP
25
Demographics and Destiny
26
Contact
Lloyd Potter, Ph.D., M.P.H.
Office: (512) 463-8390 or (210) 458-6530
Email: [email protected]
Internet: http://osd.state.tx.us
27