Tehseen Ahmed (Research Associate, Newports Institute of Communication and Economics) Dr. Iqbal Panhwar (Dean, Baharia University Karachi) Dr. Tayyaba Zarif (Head of Department, Newports Institute of Communication and Economics)

  There are many advantages as well as disadvantages of Urbanization, includes the traffic jams, surge in crimes, unemployment and poverty. The capacity of opportunities for jobs and education are limited, in the same context the capacity in hospitals, schools, buses, trains and other foods and services are limited for urban population. On the contrary, there are many advantages includes the support to economy in shape of small businesses and cheap manpower, the availability of the labor and other services increases. The most of the services specially, the drivers, maids, mochi, teachers and sales staff in cities belong to the rural areas. Currently, maximum share of the urbanization prevails on Karachi, called the mini Pakistan. The people from every region, every language, religion and cast is available in Karachi. In the same, the human life in the city is quite disturbed due to political and religious turmoil. The rates of crime, murders trend and snatching is very high in Karachi as compare to other cities in Pakistan. This is due to the unavailability of the resources like employment, education; health and discrimination that ultimately indulge youngsters in controvert activities.

  The bread-and-butter foundations of bent amends were developed by Beccaria (1767) and addition antecedent of absorption in economics of crimes is emerged from the acclaimed atypical Crime and Punishment by Dostoevsky (1866). The role of assets on the bent activities is empiric by Fleisher (1966). The columnist argued that assets have two accessible furnishings on bent behavior. An accepted appeal ancillary aftereffect is absolute and accepted accumulation ancillary aftereffect is negative. Appeal ancillary after effect is that if humans accept college incomes again there is abatement in bent behavior. The accumulation ancillary aftereffect is that if there are added assets in the abridgement and humans wish to get that money through bent behavior. He estimated that appeal ancillary aftereffect is added than the accumulation ancillary aftereffect that is if there is 1 % access in assets again the abomination decreases by 2.5%.

  Considering 177 regions, authors estimated the abstracted models of acreage and agitated crimes and argued that if the neighbors of urban areas are poors again there is added adventitious of crimes in urban areas. In Pakistan urbanization is an austere amount because in 2030 urban citizenry will acceleration by 140% about (Haider 2006). The columnist argued that this blazon of fast advance in urbanization will actualize unemployment in adolescence and change the apperception of humans appears crimes. Urbanization is not bad in itself because humans accept the appropriate to advance their active accepted and acquisition acceptable jobs which is added in urban areas.

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Social Variables

H1: There is positive influence of Murders on Urbanization in Pakistan H2: There is positive relationship between Urbanization and Kidnapping H3: There is positive relationship between Urbanization and Decoity H4: There is positive relationship between Urbanization and Robbery H5: There is positive influence of Cattle Theft on Urbanization in

Pakistan

H6: There is positive influence of other thefts on Urbanization in

Pakistan

Economic Variables

H7: There is positive influence of Per Capita GNP on Urbanization in

Pakistan

H8: There is positive relationship between Unemployment and

Urbanization in Pakistan

H9: There is positive relationship between Inflation and Urbanization in

Pakistan

       This study is quantitative by nature.

Secondary by function Exploratory by type We choose the exploratory design To explore the impacts of urbanization. We collected the data of a decade from year 2002 to 2012 from various resources including the World Bank and Sindh high court. To check the integrity of the collected data, we examined the figures by Reliability Test through SPSS that provides the reliable: Cronbech beta subsequently we tests the relationship of dependent and independent variables through Linear Regression and Pearson Correlation.

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Overall model revealed the significant results with 2.825 Durbin Watson. However, the model explained maximum part with 91% R Square whereas the standard error is nearly 14%. The adjusted R Square of the model is 0.908.

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There is positive influence of Murders on Urbanization in Pakistan

The relationship of murders with urbanization is quite significant with positive 1.596 Beta with the 6.019 t statistics, whereas the Pearson’s correlation reflects the 91.3% dependence of murders on urbanization. These results are very stunned that rate of murders in Pakistan is due to the urbanization. However, the results are based on the historical data of the country.

There is positive relationship between Urbanization and Kidnapping

The results of regressions are significant at 1% and reflect the negative relationship between kidnapping in the cities and urbanization with -0.174 whereas slope of the relationship is -1.663. The result shows that whenever movement of inhabitants in cities increases the kidnapping decreases. Additionally, the Pearson’s correlation reveals the 91.12% positive relationship.

There is positive relationship between Urbanization and Decoity

This hypothesis also tested through same methodology and results revealed the negative relationship with -0.411 whereas t statistics reflects the -2.611. Furthermore, the relationship is significant with 0.011 levels. Furthermore, another relationship tool, the correlation reflects the 87.37% positive relationship between urbanization and decoity

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There is positive relationship between Urbanization and Robbery

This relationship is also the significant with 0.264 levels with positive beta 0.124 whereas t statistics reveals the 1.125 relationship. Furthermore, the correlation also reveals the 82.60% positive relationship. It means that urbanization influence the robberies in urban areas with 12.4% efficiency.

There is positive influence of Cattle Theft on Urbanization in Pakistan

This hypothesis also reflects the expected relationship with 0.023 levels of significance whereas beta of the relationship is positive 0.112 that slope is 2.310. Furthermore, the correlation of the relationship also revealed the positive relationship with 24.44% results. This is the unexpected results because mostly cattle exists in rural areas and their possibility that cattle theft increase and forwarded to urban areas that ultimately impact the increment in urbanization as well.

There is positive influence of other thefts on Urbanization in Pakistan

The relationship between urbanization and other thefts, including the money, wallets equipment and mobile snatching also reflects the positive results with 0.544 beta where the slope is 3.096 with 0.003 levels of significance. Moreover, the relationship of same variables on correlation reflects the 91.09% positive results. This is due to the more population of inhabitants against urbanization where opportunities are limited, that creates the gap of employment and leads to the thefts and other crimes.

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There is positive influence of Per Capita GNP on Urbanization in Pakistan

The results of this hypothesis revealed the expected results with .032 levels of significance where positive relationship with 0.472 and 2.180 slope exists. The results of correlation with same variables reveal the 22.1% results. These results are the symbol of contribution of urbanized population in economic growth of the country.

There is positive relationship between Unemployment and Urbanization in Pakistan

The relationship between unemployment and urbanization is significant with 0.428 where beta is positive 0.012 with 0.796 t statistics. The correlation reflects the -18.31% negative relationship. The contribution of urbanization in unemployment is due to the limited opportunities with increasing trend of urbanization and the lack of effective quota system by the private sectors as well.

There is positive relationship between Inflation and Urbanization in Pakistan

The level of significance for relationship between inflation and urbanization is 0.485 whereas the beta of the relationship is negative -0.001 with -0.701slope. Furthermore, the correlation of the same variables reflects the positive results with 10.95% relationship. This reflects that urbanization is a tool to control the inflation that may be uses with different policies and infrastructure of the government. Furthermore, it proves that urbanized population is participating in economic development of the country.

    The overall results reflect that there are more negative impacts for country due to urbanization as compare to positive impacts.

The authorities and policy makers should consider the increasing rates of crimes and unemployment.

There should be effective controls especially for crimes and unemployment in view of increasing trends of urbanization while making the policies. Furthermore, I recommend an additional primary research to know the views of inhabitants regarding discrimination on quota system and hiring policies of public and private sectors.

             Sindh High Court (2012), Crime Records, Retrieved on 19 th February, 2013 Data Bank (2012), Urbanization, World Bank.Org, Retrieved on 19 th February, 2013 Allen, Ralph (1996), socioeconomic conditions and property crime: A comprehensive review and test of the professional literature. American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Volume 55, pp. 293-308.

Arif, G.M, (2003). Urbanization in Pakistan: Trends, Growth and Evaluation of the 1998 Census”, Population of Pakistan: An Analysis of 1998 Population and Housing Census, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics/UNFPA, Islamabad Beccaria, M.C.B. (1767). An essay on crime and punishment, London J. Almon Becker, Gary S. (1968), Crime and punishment: An economic approach. Journal of Political Economy, Volume 76, pp. 169-217.

Coomer, Nicole (2003), America’s underclass and crime: The influence of macroeconomic factors. Issues in Political Economy, Volume 12 Ehrlich, Isaac (1973), Participation in illegitimate activities: A theoretical and empirical investigation. The Journal of Political Economy, Volume 81(3), pp. 307-322.

Fleisher, Belton M. (1966), The effect of income on delinquency. The American Economic Review, Volume 55(1/2), pp. 118-137.

Dostoevsky, Fyodor (1866). Crime and Punishment, Translated in English by Constance Garnett Galvin, Ellen B. (2002) Crime and Violence in an Urbanizing World, Journal of International Affairs, 56, 123-145.

Gaviria, Alejandro and Carmen Pagés (2002) Patterns of Crime Victimization in Latin American Cities, Journal of Development Economics, 67, 181-203.