Complexity in Public Policy: Metaphors and Methods

Philip Haynes

What do we mean by policy?

 Government action   Linking of decisions Intervention – political power

What do we mean by policy?

 Implementation – management, professionalism…  Multidisciplinary

Policy Process  Policy as a rational process

Making sense of it all?

 Patterns  Time and Space

Patterns  Action over time policy trends  Spatial levels global, national, local, organisation, team…

Policy systems

External Factors External Factors

Complexity Theory   Complex dynamic systems are constructed by the interaction of instability and stability.

Includes chaos theory, but goes beyond it Stability Instability

Complex or complicated?

Some core metaphors 1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

Instability (chaos) Nested systems Attractors (order in disorder) Interaction (not cause and effect) Self organisation (order from within)

Chaos and instability

Instability and chaos in policy

Private residential social care homes, aged 65 and over, Eng.

160000 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0

annual % change

30.00

25.00

20.00

15.00

10.00

5.00

1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989

Year

1990 1991 1992 1993 0.00

Types of change

Instability

80 60 40 20 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 output over time 8 9 10

Types of change

Comple xity

80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

output over time

8 9 10

Policy and Time  Evolution of macro policy  Which path does policy action take?

1.

2.

3.

Path dependency Punctuated equilibrium Complex stability-instability

Some core metaphors   Instability (chaos) Nested systems (fractals)

Nested systems Central Government Sub National Government Local Government Organisation A Actor, 1., 2, 3, etc Organisation B

Some core metaphors    Instability (chaos) Nested systems (fractals) Attractors (order in the disorder) -1,5 -1,0 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 -0,5 0,0 0,0 -0,5 -1,0 -1,5 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0

Attractor UK inflation (t-1) 1987-2004

Attractor UK inflation 1987-1990

Attractor UK inflation 1990--1997

Attractor UK inflation 1997-2005

Attractor UK inflation 1987-2005

Attractors -

qualitative

 Kontoupolous – ‘competing logics in public policy’ Managerialism Marketisation Consumerism User involvement Professionalism Citizenship Bureaucratic rules

Some core metaphors     Instability (chaos) Nested systems (fractals) Attractors (order in the disorder) Interaction (rather than cause and effect) A B

System Interaction

Some core metaphors      Instability (chaos) Nested systems (fractals) Attractors (order in the disorder) Interaction (rather than cause and effect) Self organisation (Order from within)

Self organisation

Methods  How we can make sense of such complexity?

‘We maybe able to able to learn a lot about the kind of dynamics involved in the functioning of such systems…Complexity theory underscores the importance of contingent factors… No general model can capture these singularities.’ Cilliers, 2001, p.145

Qualitative Comparative Method

Charles Ragin

 Use of quantitative thresholds to make qualitative judgements   Better consideration of cases Multiple ‘complex’ paths to outcome

Single quantitative model

As complex patterns QCA – truth tables H 0 W 1 M 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 S 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 CH 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 A 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 AR 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 Out C 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 id AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND GERMANY GB US AUSTRIA HUNG NOR,CAN POLAND JAPAN SPAIN

Logical Statements Outcome 1 = higher expenditure on LTC policy h * (M*s*ch) + (m*S*a) N= (8) (5) + (3)

Country statements

h * m * S * ch * a * ar (GB and USA)

Patterns – workflow diagrams Publicity Clearing

Student Induction Admissions Learning and Teaching delivery

Open days Research grants Progression Subject strength Staff expertise Staff deployment Staff turn over

Assessment

Research publications Staff stress Higher Degree Recruitment Student stress System Stress (Info. Systems) Timetabling Personal tutoring Student services Student retention

Examination Boards

Awards and Graduation

Indicator Dashboard Publications cited Student Targets 19.78 SSRs Budget Student Retention Grants awarded

Implications for practice ‘Decision makers should be content with setting minimum specifications, establishing boundaries and letting the system settle into a condition that satisfies the constraints placed on it.’ (Kernick 2004, p137)’

Airport paperback: five point summary  Don’t micro manage  Do both synthesis and analysis (the big picture is an important as the detail)  Celebrate positive feedback systems  Some places are trapped in negative feedback, consider intervening on a large scale.

 Listen to local context and ‘stories’